An update on my 2006 NFL record, and a free bet tracking spreadsheet

And a somewhat significant update at that:

I was doing some data analysis on my record for public NFL picks as posted here (and in a couple other places) and noticed some things didn't add up.

I keep a detailed set of electronic records for all my bets. However, I did not previously track my "public picks" as separate, i just extrapolated them separately and tracked them here.

Somewhere, I think in Week Seven, I had apparently mis-reported some public results and then I carried that mistake forward all the way to today.

So I did two things: I went back through each week of posted picks and gathered all the data on my picks. Then I made a stripped down version of my personal recordkeeping system and built it in excel, and used it to track my public record.

So without further ado, here are the changes to my record:

Game of the Week results were off +.05 units

Tease of the Week record was off, showed three losses when I have two.

Tease of the Week results were off -1.0 units

Year to Date combined record was off significantly: listed as -0.34 when the total was +5.68

here is the updated record in the new format I'll be reporting:

2006 YTD - Season Record Summary:

Game of the Week: 5 - 4 - 3 : +5.70 UNITS
non GotW picks: 14 - 23 - 1 : -(10.62) UNITS
All Straight Picks: 19 - 27 - 4 : (4.92) UNITS
Tease of the Week: 6 - 2 - 0 : +10.60 UNITS
All Public NFL Picks: 25 - 29 - 4 +5.68 TOTAL UNITS

If you want to back-test this publicly available data for yourself, you can search my site via Google or you can hit the Sports Betting Forum on twoplustwo.com, hit the forum Search button, look for posts in the last year by username:performify with the subject "Pigskin Picks" (make sure to put Pigskin Picks in quotes) and you can verify the entered amounts yourself if you care to do so.

...But that's not all. Since I took the time to pull together the spreadsheet, i thought I'd go ahead and make it public. For those interested, here is the spreadsheet with my public season data: Performify's 2006 NFL public picks to date.

And since I decided it was worth making a stripped down version of my recordkeeping system and building it in excel, and since I've fielded several requests in the past to share a spreadsheet or a tool for tracking bets. So here it is: a blank version of my NFL bet tracking spreadsheet .

This doesn't have all my features and analysis I use in my own record keeping, but if you're new to handicapping or find you're not keeping the best records, this might be a helpful start.

Here are some tips for its use:

you might find comparing the blank to my version with data (linked above) to be helpful.

If you look at my version with data, you'll notice that the columns for "who" (team picked) "sprd" (spread) and "vig" (price paid) are meant to be hidden for normal use. You enter the data in those fields each week, and then once you're done hide the fields so that the report at the bottom looks nice

Notice some of the fields have comments. In my version of excel, those are designated by small red triangles in the upper right of the fields with comments. mouse over those cells for my notes, which are meant to help explain abbreviations and etc.

to the far right of the spreadsheet, you'll notice abbreviations for each NFL team. If you use those abbreviations exactly when recording your picks in the "who" column, this area will break out the number of times you've chosen one of those teams and your record (in terms of units won/lost) on those picks of that team. This currently doesn't work for Teasers, just for the straight picks section. If you find this section helpful/interesting you can thank Lori for the impetus. If you don't, blame me.

This is obviously built for my format of publicly posted NFL picks: a Game of the Week, up to five other straight picks, and a single tease of the week. It shouldn't be hard for you to customize it to your own needs, other sports, etc. All the forumulas should be absolute references where they need to be, so when you move things around (adding, deleting rows) you should be able to fill in or strip out and have everything still work. If someone wants to make a generic version not for my specific format and send it back to me, i'll host it as well. If I have some time in the upcoming weeks I'll try to do it myself.

If you have any questions, post them here rather than PM me, to share the Q&A with the forum.

Performify's Pigskin Picks - Week Twelve

Not a lot of plays this week, my system liked Kansas City this week but I didn't get a chance to post it due to Thanksgiving commitments. Anyways, on to the picks...

Last week: 3-1, +5.02u on straight picks. Win on Game of the Week. Win on Tease of the Week +5u. Total for the week: +10.02u

YTD RESULTS:
17-25-4 on posted picks, -6.72 units (excludes teasers)
4-4-3 on Game of the Week, +0.75 units.
6-3 on Tease of the Week, +9.6 units
Year to date combined on all posted NFL picks (includes teasers): -2.14 units

Remember, as always these are graduated units, so cut them in half if you're playing "1%-2% of your bankroll" sized units.

Jets -4.5 (-104) vs Texans
This is a must-win for the Jets to keep playoff hopes alive, while the Texans are playing for pride at this point with a 3-7 record and a 1-4 record on the road. The Texans are improving but still don't have everything they need on both sides of the ball to mount a serious run at the postseason. The Jets are coming off two strong games against the Pats and Bears, and yet Jets QB Chad Pennington is playing for his job as his arm has started to fade coming off his two shoulder surgeries in the offseason.

Houston has good quickness on their offensive line and with the surprising performance of speedster Leon Washington. The Texans have a bigger, slower defensive line (especially at the ends) which should allow the Jets, especially Washington, to run outside. The Jets have gotten their running game on track in the past few weeks and will build on that success here against a Texans team that gives up an average of 125 yards per game on the ground. The Texans also have troubles in the secondary, the Texans' defense is tied for last in the AFC with seven interceptions and is third-worst with only 18 sacks. Pennington should have plenty of time to throw, and shouldn't have to worry about turnovers much. Expect a solid outing for Chad Pennington and the NY Jets passing attack.

The Texans still have several gaps on both sides of the ball. Its especially a bad year to be a Texans tackle - on the offensive line the Texans are starting two backups at tackle after losing their top two offensive tackles, and they lost their top two defensive tackles as well. In short, the injuries to the Texans are much more significant than the casual observer realizes if you're not watching closely. 24-17 NY Jets, Game of the Week.

Chargers -13 (-110) vs Raiders
Oakland's defense has been playing better than expected, especially at home, but their offense is absolutely terrible. The Raiders offense took another blow last week losing Lamont Jordan for the rest of the season (ACL). The Raiders won't be able to run against the Chargers' top rush defense and with their problems at offensive line will struggle to protect their QB, whether its Brooks or Walter who might get time in the second half. The last time these two teams met, in week one, the Raiders gave up nine sacks on route to getting skunked 27-0. The Raiders should actually score this week, probably a late meaningless touchdown, but won't keep this inside two TDs. With KC beating Denver, San Diego can't overlook this game with a tight three-way race in the AFC West. LT has 22 touchdowns on the year. The Oakland offense has eight. I expect that ratio to stay about the same, LT finding the endzone three times and Oakland only once. San Diego 24, Oakland 10.

Carolina -4 (-101) at Washington
Redskins are struggling with the loss of their marquee running back Clinton Portis for the season, and are starting an inexperienced quarterback in Jason Campbell who gets his second NFL start. The Redskins' secondary is next to last in the league in pass defense, and definitely doesn't have anyone who can match up with Steve Smith. They'll have to double him all day, which will lead to big things for the rest of the offense, helping to open up the running game and the rest of the receiving options. The Carolina offensive line has gelled the last few weeks, producing their best rushing game of the year last week with 242 yards on the ground. The Panthers are tied for first in the NFC South (tied with the Saints, who have a tough game with the Falcons) so this is an important game for Carolina.

Colts -9.5 (+102) vs Eagles
The Colts are playing for home field advantage here, the Eagles season is shot with the loss of McNabb. While Westbrook should have a big day against the mediocre Colts rush defense, the Colts can stack the box and force the Eagles to the air, which is no longer such a threat without McNabb behind center. Garcia has no arm strength which takes away the deep ball. Look for a lot of three-and-out from the Eagles offense, and with the Eagles defense stuck on the field against the deadly Indy offensive attack they're going to give up a lot of points. 35-17 Colts, I wouldn't be surprised to see a three touchdown margin at halftime.

Summary of Picks for Week 12

Jets -4.5 (-104) : 5.2u to win 5u

Chargers -13 (-110) : 2.2u to win 2u

Panthers -4 (-101) : 2.02u to win 2u

Colts -9.5 (+102) : 1u to win 1.02u

Performify's Pigskin Picks - Week Eleven

Sorry these are really late... busy week on the road a couple days and then the big UFC last night. Won't have time for detailed writeups here, but picks posted for the record:

Last week:
1-2, +1.89u on straight picks. Win on Game of the Week.
Win on Tease of the Week, +3u.
Total for the week: +4.89u

YTD RESULTS:
14-24-4 on posted picks, -11.74 units (excludes teasers)
3-4-3 on Game of the Week, -4.25 units.
5-3 on Tease of the Week, +4.6 units
Year to date combined on all posted NFL picks (includes teasers): -7.14 units

Dallas -1 -109 over Indy
Not the best line that was available on this game, by far, but that's the current so thats what I track against. Indy a huge favorite of the public, my system has Dallas winning this by a fieldgoal. My team is strongly built on the "need to win" factor and this is the definition of a disparity in need to win: Dallas has to have this game, Indy could care less. 27-24 Dallas. Game of the Week

Philly -13 +101 over Tennessee Titans
Philly is a game behind the Giants for the East, this is a must-win for them. Titans pass defense is struggling. Big day for McNabb, looking to put this game away early. Backdoor cover always a possibility but I have this as a big Eagles win. 28-13 Philly. Three unit play.

Chicago Bears -6 +101 over NY Jets
I have Chicago winning this by a touchdown, 24-17. Two unit play.

Panthers -6.5 +101 over St. Louis Rams
St. Louis is banged up on both sides of the ball. The Panthers are rolling and need this game. Panthers 24, St. Louis 17.

Tease of the Week: San Diego +2.5, Kansas City -9 (2-team, 6.5 point)
Teasing to San Diego +9, Kansas City -2.5. Really hoped the Dallas line was going to move enough to be a tease, but didn't quite get there. KC should take Oakland but might not cover with Oak's renewed defensive prowess, and I really like the Chargers to keep the Denver game close if not win outright. Five units.

Summary of Posted Picks

Dallas -1 -109 : 5.45u to win 5u

Philly -13 +101 : 3u to win 3.03u

Bears -6 +101 : 2u to win 2.02u

Carolina -6.5 -101 : 1.01u to win 1u

Teaser: San Diego +9, Kansas City -2.5 : 6u to win 5u (2-team, 6.5 point tease at -120)

UFC 65: Full card predictions

Taking the current odds from Pinnacle at the time of this post.

Brandon Vera vs Frank Mir
Brandon Vera -312
Frank Mir +282
Brandon "The Truth" Vera is now 7-0 in MMA with wins at UFC 57 over Justin Eilers and at UFC 60 over a then well-regarded Assuerio Silva. Mir has heavy hands and great ground skills, but has had terrible conditioning ever since coming back from a motorcycle accident which left him with a severely broken femur and a crushed pelvis. While there's always a very very very longshot that the "old" Frank Mir comes back and slips in a submission on Vera, the reality is that Vera is significantly better on his feet, is no slouch on the ground, and is significantly quicker, more explosive, and just overall a much better athlete. Vera has been very vocal about his plans to use a significant number of leg kicks to wear down Mir, and there’s no reason to think that strategy won’t work here. A pretty safe bet on Vera with a finish by strikes in the second round.

Antoni Hardonk vs Sherman Pendergarst
Antoni Hardonk -267
Sherman Pendergarst +247
Antoni Hardonk is a Dutch kickboxer trained under K1’s Ernesto Hoost, but has been training jiu-jitsu under Rickson Gracie jiu-jitsu in LA for the past couple years, and he has achieved the rank of blue belt. Hardonk doesn’t really have any significant opponents to date, and holds a 4-2 MMA record. His last three fights were in K1 in mid-2004 which he lost by UD, and a victory over Hammer House’s Wes Sims in November 2004, and then a win at Bushido Europe in late 2005. Sherman "The Tank" Pendergarst comes from WFL and cage fighting, with a 7-3 MMA record and no significant opponents except a loss to Justin Eilers at “Combat in the Cage 2” back in May of this year. Sherman has a background in college wrestling and trains with Militech. Hardonk was supposed to fight Brad Imes here, and Pendergarst is taking the fight on two week’s notice – he was already training for a fight in December, so he’s not coming in untrained entirely though. These are two pretty unknowns here so this isn’t a fight to load up on. If this fight was in December, with Pendergarst having full time to prepare, he’d be a strong pick. As it is, I think I’ll take the guy with the wrestling background and Miletich in his corner, despite my clear love of the Gracie camp. Pendergarst by first round TKO, ground and pound baby. Risky bet though, Hardonk could catch The Tank shooting, The Tank could decide he’s going to stand and trade and lose there, or Hardonk’s BJJ could result in a first round sub. But despite all those ways of winning its hard to bet on an unknown named LOL_Hardonkaments.

Alessio Sakara vs Drew McFedries
Alessio Sakara -483
Drew McFedries +433
“Legionarius” Sakara has a 10-4 MMA record, 2-1 in the UFC. We’ve seen him at UFC 55 were he got kicked in the junk (and the fight was stopped, No Contest), at UFC 57 where he took Elvis Sinosic to a win by UD, beating him up pretty bad along the way, and then last saw him get first round triangle’d by Dean Lister at UFC 60 on the undercard of Hughes/Gracie. Sakara is a strong boxer, with a pro boxing record of 6-2. McFedries is a Miletich fighter with a 4-1 MMA record: he opened his career with a loss to Nate Quarry way back in 2001, won a fight in 2002 and two in 2003, and then took a three year break to return at Extreme Challenge 71 with a win. McFedries normally fights at 185 and is fighting here at 205, and took the fight on roughly two week’s notice. Sakara is a big favorite here for a very good reason. McFedries will certainly have a puncher’s chance, but not much of one. Both of these two should stand and trade on the feet in what should be an exciting bout. Sakara will open with his dangerous leg kicks to set up his boxing ability, and we should see a first round KO here.

Hector Ramirez vs James Irvin
Hector Ramirez -153
James Irvin +143
James Irvin will always be remembered as the man with the infamous flying knee KO of Terry Martin at the beginning of the second round of their match at UFC 54. This will be Irvin’s sixth fight in 2006: he’s 11-3 overall, but 2-2 in 2006 (one match was a no contest) with a first round loss to Stephan Bonnar at Ultimate Fight Night 3 in January, and a follow-up loss to at WEC 19 to Lodune Sincaid. Irvin has trained in Gracie BJJ and in Muay Thai, and is fighting on his home turf as he’s from Sacramento. Ramirez is no slouch, ranked third in King of the Cage at light heavyweight and holding a 6-1-1 MMA record. Ramirez is a solid wrestler with heavy hands and trains with Quinton “Rampage” Jackson. Ramirez will likely look to take this fight to the ground and impose his will, but probably won’t be able to finish Irvin, certainly not with submission. Irvin should have the edge in conditioning and if he can survive the first round I look for Irvin to win with a late TKO, say third round after Ramirez gasses.

Joe Stevenson vs Dokonjonosuke Mishima
Joe Stevenson -228
Dokonjonosuke Mishima +208
Mishima is 17-4-2 in MMA with a win over Marcus Aurelio in late 2004 and big losses to Yves Edwards at Bushido 7 in mid 2005 and a loss to Ralph Gracie back in 2003. Joe “Daddy” Stevenson is 25-7 in MMA, we last saw him with a win over Yves Edwards at UFC 61 in July in that ridiculously bloody bout. Mishima is a grappler primarily from Shooto with good ground skills, but outside of a recent submission win over the barely-.500 fighter “Crazy Horse” Bennett at Bushido 9 in September 2005, Mishima hasn’t won a fight by stoppage since July 2003. On first glance these odds looked somewhat attractive, but on deeper reflection I don’t expect Mishima will have anything deal with Joe Stevenson’s strength and quickness. Stevenson is obviously a very strong wrestler but has submission skills himself, and Mishima is going to have trouble putting something on Stevenson that Joe won’t be able to defend or power through. We know “MMAth” doesn’t always work, but Mishima losing to The Crow in 2005 and Joe Daddy dropping him in 2006, I do expect the edge to Stevenson. Mishima is on the downside of his career here and I don’t expect him to prevail. I think this is a fight handpicked to build up Stevenson. Joe Daddy by second round TKO, ground and pound.

Tim Sylvia vs Jeff Monson
Tim Sylvia -253
Jeff Monson +233
Let me start by saying: Man, I hate Timmy. Sylvia is 22-2 with his only two losses to the in-shape Frank Mir (the infamous arm breakage) and the first fight with Andrei Arlovski. Sylvia has won his last five fights. Monson has a 22-5 MMA record and is 4-2 in the UFC, but is coming in riding a very impressive 16 win streak, with his last loss back in 2002 to Forrest Griffin in the first WEFC (World Extreme Fighting Championships). Most recently we’ve seen Monson choke out Branden Lee Hinkle at UFC 57, defeat Marcio Cruz by split decision at UFC 59, and first round TKO Anthony Perosh at UFC 61.

Much has been made of the height difference here, so I’m not going to go in to it in depth, except to say a couple things. Monson looked like crap against Marcio Cruz, letting Cruz keep him at arms length with really weak jabs and leg kicks. If he does the same thing against Sylvia he’s obviously a dead man. But my opinion is that Monson stayed standing with Cruz because Cruz is such a strong jiu-jitsu fighter (he and Monson had fought several times in grappling contests) so he figured he’d keep it standing and look to win on the feet where he had an edge albeit a very slim one. Hopefully Monson is smart enough to know he can’t let Sylvia do the same. So hopefully we see Monson close the gap with Sylvia and use his height as an advantage: its really hard to punch down at a close opponent with this type of height disparity: since you can’t use downwards elbows, and Sylvia probably won’t want to throw knees from close as it gives Monson an opportunity to throw off his balance and/or grab a leg. Ultimately, I think if Monson can manage to take this to the ground, he can snap Timmy in half. Here’s hoping we get to see that happen… man I hate Timmy.

Matt Hughes vs Georges St. Pierre
Matt Hughes -127
Georges St. Pierre +117
GSP is a monster, no question. In his last fight with Hughes he was very tough for Matt to control. Both of these fighters are well rounded for sure, and if you stacked up all of their opponents together, they both beat both of their opponents list most all of the time. But when they match up together, its about the edges. I see Hughes as an edge in wrestling and control once it hits the ground. Not a major advantage, based on the elusiveness GSP showed in their last match, but still when this fight goes to the ground, Hughes gets an advantage. If GSP can keep the fight standing, if he can force Hughes to trade, then he can certainly win this fight. So I’m certainly not saying Hughes is a mortal lock or anything else. But I think Hughes wins this fight around 67% of the time (2/3 fights) which goes to a -200 line and means I see tremendous value in the current line of Hughes around -135 (which translates to Hughes wins 57% of the time). Its obvious that the line has moved the opposite direction of what I expected it to do, though. I recommended grabbing a big handful of Hughes around -145 where it opened, and obviously quite a bit of money has moved in on GSP. Mine is on Hughes. Despite how bad BJ Penn made Hughes look for the first two rounds, I think Hughes is at the pinnacle of his career here. This should be a great matchup and heavily anticipated by yours truly. I think Hughes wins a close decision fight, probably three round to two.

Nick Diaz vs Gleison Tibau
Nick Diaz -478
Gleison Tibau +428
Diaz, a black-belt student of Cesar Gracie Jiu-Jitsu, now sports a 13-6 MMA record with a spread of three UFC losses (Ultimate Fighter 2 finale vs Diego Sanchez in late 2005, UD loss to Joe Riggs at UFC 57 in February 2006, UD loss to Sean Sherk at UFC 59 two months later. Diaz then returned to UFC 62 defeating Josh Neer in August. Tibau is a BJJ practitioner fighting with American Top Team coming to the US from Brazil, holding an 11-3 pro MMA record. Tibau is largely an unknown here, and given Diaz’s recent struggles I think there’s always a possibility that the two guys take the fight to the ground and Tibau pulls out a submission. I’m not willing to lay close to 5:1 on a fighter who is struggling versus a complete unknown with a BJJ background and a solid record. So I’m going to recommend a tiny play here against Diaz.

Summary of Picks

Brandon Vera -312 : 9.36u to win 3u

Sherman Pendergarst +247 : .5u to win 1.235u

Alessio Sakara -483 : 2.415u to win .5u

James Irvin +143 : 1u to win 1.43u

Joe Stevenson -228 : 2.28u to win 1u

Jeff Monson +233 : .5u to win 1.165u

Matt Hughes -127 : 2.54u to win 2u

Gleison Tibau : +428 : .25u to win 1.05u

The first four plays, Vera, Pendergarst, Sakara and Stevenson would be those that i'd see as strongly +EV. Monson is a longer shot underdog call. Hughes I see as a tremendous value but i'm surprised to see where the money has ended up. Tibau is a pure value play that you can probably stay away from unless you want the full card covered...

Performify's Pigskin Picks - Week Ten

Gotta love yet another brilliant week last week. Chicago turns the ball over 7 times. Atlanta turns the ball over three times. Green Bay throws an INT in the endzone in the 4th quarter as they're ready to tie up the game, which leads to a Bills TD so 14 point swing. Chargers are covering and give up a garbage TD with a minute left. Yay, double digit losses on the year now. Didn't need the teaser points but nice to see that win without any real danger.

Despite all that, I still have confidence in my system of game selection and weighting. I'm getting burned by turnovers this year: my system is selecting teams which are good at forcing turnovers playing teams that are bad at turning the ball over, and instead in those games my picks are turning the ball over unusually. For example, Chicago was +11 in turnovers (meaning they had generated eleven more turnovers than they had turned the ball over themselves), tied for #1 in the league in that category on the year - at least prior to last week - and Miami was -5. So on average you wouldn't expect that Chicago would give the ball away 6 times for a -4 turnover differential. Likewise with Atlanta/Detroit, where Atlanta is one of the best teams in the league for turnovers playing one of the teams near the bottom in turning the ball over. And instead, Atlanta gives the ball away three times for a -2 turnover differential, and Detroit scores three of their touchdowns off the Atlanta giveaways.

Anyway, I still have all the confidence in my selection system and my capping ability. I really feel this is all short term variance, and I really do expect stronger showings going forward. But feel free to fade away, if you think otherwise :)

On to the picks and writeups, but first: up-to-date record:

Last week:
1-4, -7.24u on straight picks. Loss on Game of the Week.
Win on Tease of the Week, +3u
Total on the day: -4.24u

YTD RESULTS:
13-22-4 on posted picks, -13.63 units (excludes teasers)
2-3-3 on Game of the Week, -10.25 units.
4-3 on Tease of the Week, +1.6 units
Year to date combined on all posted NFL picks (includes teasers): -12.03 units

Jets +10.5 (-107) at Patriots
The Jets are coming off their bye week following a disappointing loss to Cleveland in Week 8. The Pats are coming off a crushing loss to Indy, a game which they gave away with turnovers and penalties.

I look at a lot of factors for these games, including a lot of statistics and breakdowns. With some of the tremendous new statistical sites available, there are a lot of very interesting bits of information available. For one, in 45 career starts at quarterback, Jets quarterback Chad Pennington is 6-2 after games in which he had a quarterback rating lower than 75. Most recently, Pennington had a 28.9 rating against Jacksonville in Week 5 and then torched Miami in Week 6. He had a 21.1 rating against Cleveland in their last game... and now I look for him to continue this trend with a rebound performance against the Patriots. No, before someone jumps on me, not just because of this trend. Its all about the statistics: the Pats give up 229 yards per game in the air on average, making them the #28 ranked pass defense in the NFL. They're coming off a game in which they gave up 326 passing yards in Week 9 vs. the Colts. Also the New England defense does not blitz often, instead preferring to stay in their base 3-4 formation and play the run stronger. And of course, Jets coach Eric Mangini, the Patriots' defensive coordinator last year, knows New England's personnel well and has had two weeks to prepare, so expect some new developments in the Jets' game plan. Patriots starting safety Rodney Harrison will also miss this game, out with a broken shoulder blade, which leaves a big hole in the already leaky New England secondary.

On offense, the Patriots like to run the ball (128 yards per game on the ground on average), and should have a big day against a weak Jets rush defense that allows 148 yards rushing per game. But this is actually a factor in why my system likes this game: The Jets have a high-powered passing attack playing a leaky pass defense, which should allow them to put up points quickly. On the other side of the ball, the Pats will likely pound the run much of the game, which should chew up the clock and serve to keep things closer than most people expect here. Bill Belichick is one of the best coaches in exploiting an opponent's weakness and he will draw up a run-first approach to grind out yards against an undersized Jets defensive line. Another bit of interesting statistical matchup from another of those aforementioned sources: In 11 career games against the Jets, New England QB Tom Brady averages just 196 yards and one touchdown. Worse, in his last three home games against the Jets, Brady has thrown just one touchdown pass.

This will be the second time these divisional rivals have met this year. In week two the Pats won 24-17 in New York. I predict this game will be pretty similar to that last meeting: a game in which the Pats ran for 157 yards, the Jets threw for over 300, and the Pats shut down a late Jets drive to win a close game. 21-14 New England for the Jets cover. Game of the Week.

Chiefs -1 (-103) at Miami
Road favorites can always be trouble, but the Chiefs are on an absolute tear, led by Larry Johnson who has 459 rushing yards out of his last three games. The Dolpins are coming off a big win and I believe there's a chance for an intangible "letdown" game after the big victory over Chicago.

The Dolphins are #14 in the NFL at defending the run, and with the Chiefs offensive line starting to gel and Chiefs backup QB Damon Huard really starting to open up the entire offense, the Chiefs should roll over the Dolphins here. The Chiefs do have a couple struggles at offensive line, with last week's injury to guard Brian Watters, but they have veteran Chris Bober to replace him and will still be able to run against Miami with Bober standing in for Waters.

Joey Harrington will face another Cover 2 defense with the Chiefs, and he's struggled against the Cover 2 throughout his career including last week against Chicago where despite throwing three touchdowns he threw two INTs and made numerous questionable throws. The Chiefs have built a very strong, very underrated defense, and CBs Ty Law and Patrick Surtain will probably each produce an interception against Harrington this game. The Chiefs have allowed just one running back to top 100 yards on the ground this year, and despite Ronnie Brown's turnaround against Chicago I expect him to have a less productive game here, with Miami falling behind early and being forced away from the run. Chicago turned the ball over six times last week, and the Chiefs will protect the ball better than that here. The Dolphins offensive line is slower than average, and the Chiefs defensive front is built around exceptional speed. Look for a big day from the KC defensive ends, especially speedster Jared Allen.

If the Chiefs can limit mistakes, they will win this game. 21-17 Kansas City.

Saints +4 (-102) at Steelers
This is a popular pick this week among some cappers I respect, and my system likes it a little as well. The Steelers are the worst team in the NFL at turning the ball over, at -11 on the year. The Saints aren't great in that category, sitting at -3 on the year, but still I expect the Steelers will not reverse themselves here and play mistake-free football. The Steelers have struggled protecting Roethlisburger all season, and the Saints match up well defensively with an aggressive pass rush. The Saints have allowed only one quarterback to top 250 yards this season, and I do not expect Big Ben to join that elusive club. The Saints defense has also only allowed two running back touchdowns all season, which should mean a rough day for Willie Parker.

On the other side of the ball, the Steelers have allowed some big games for opposing QBs this year, and the combination of Colston and Brees should be able to capitalize to keep things close. The Dynamic Denver Duo of Jake Plummer and Javon Walker tore up the Pittsburgh secondary last week, and you’ll see Brees making big throws between big target Marques Colston and speedster Devery Henderson. Unlike some others I don't think the Saints win here often enough to be worth a moneyline bet, but I do like taking the four points. 24-21 Pittsburgh for the Saints cover.

Tease of the Week: Denver -9.5, Carolina -9.5 2-team, 7-point teaser
I have both of these games being slightly closer than their large spreads, and as such have a tremendous value in moving both inside the three. Denver goes on the road to face an Oakland team that's been playing well lately. They won't play well enough to upset Denver's roll. Carolina faces Tampa Bay at home on Monday night. I think there is greater probability that Carolina doesn't need the points from the tease, but this should be high probability moved inside the three. This is worth a play to win three units in my system.

Summary of Picks for the Week

Jets +10.5 (-107) at Patriots : 6.42u to win 6u

Chiefs -1 (-103) at Dolphins : 3.09u to win 3u

Saints +4 (-102) at Pittsburgh : 1.02u to win 1u

Teaser: Denver -2.5, Carolina -2.5 : 3.9u to win 3u

I'll probably be back tomorrow with some more lower-level picks, my system spit out these two games and the tease as pretty strong plays and I'll take a closer look at my factors for the closer 1-unit games.

Performify's Pigskin Picks - Week Nine

Better results last week with a decisive win on Game of the Week, but a big loss on the second half of the Tease of the Week dropped me from a profitable week picking games to a slightly negative week thanks to the teaser loss.

Last week:
2-2, +1.85u on straight picks. Win on Game of the Week.
Loss on Tease of the Week, -2.4u
Total on the day: -0.55u

YTD RESULTS:
12-18-4 on posted picks, -6.39 units (excludes teasers)
2-3-3 on Game of the Week, -5.1 units.
3-3 on Tease of the Week, -1.4 units
Year to date combined on all posted NFL picks (includes teasers): -7.79 units

As always these are graduated units (corresponding to the growth in my bankroll over the years, but unit:dollar ratio stays the same for easy comparison) so if you’re using units that are 1%-2% of your current bankroll, you should cut my suggest units in half. As usual, all lines current from Pinnacle.

Atlanta -5 (-103) at Detroit
Everybody I’ve seen loves this game (it’s the #2 consensus game of the week on Wagerline, for example), but my system loves it too and I just can’t fathom why this line is where it is. Detroit is missing their best run stopper with defensive tackle Shaun Rogers on suspension. Not to mention the Lions have undersized linebackers who rely on speed, who can be overwhelmed by power inside runs, and who will struggle all day to stop the run. With Vick’s newfound emphasis on throwing the ball, teams can’t just line up to stop the run without Vick going over the top. The Lions do matchup well stopping Vick’s legs from hurting them, as middle linebacker Boss Bailey has the speed to spy on Vick to limit his scrambling. But with Bailey in the spy it just takes one more guy out of good coverage options, so there’s downside as well.

The Lions rank an awful 29th in the NFL in pass defense, and despite coming off the bye week won’t be able to make enough adjustments to deal with the Vick Experience. They play Cover 2, and if they go Cover-2 with a linebacker spy, they’re going to be vulnerable to big plays. Look for a lot of Crumpler abusing the safeties in the middle (always a weakness in Cover-2 schemes). Its really a no-win situation for the Detroit defense. If Detroit walks up a safety, they become vulnerable to the big pass play, something Vick has been doing exceptionally well the past few weeks. If they keep the linebackers filling the middle gaps to stop Dunn, they become vulnerable to the shotgun option that Atlanta has been using to such great success. So if they send the ends upfield to try to contain the option they become vulnerable to Dunn offtackler, or Vick scrambling up the middle.

On defense, the Falcons have a tremendously aggressive pass rush, and can bring a bunch of pressure to bear on Kitna on obvious passing downs. Detroit’s offensive line has surrendered 23 sacks in seven games and will give up multiple sacks on Sunday. Detroit has also thrown nine interceptions, and look for mistakes to be made in this game as well. With strong corners able to man-up on Roy Williams, in their man-zone scheme; with the aggressive pass rush, with a strong defensive line; I look for Atlanta to get up early, force Detroit to the air, and really shut them down once they become one dimensional.

Look for Atlanta to dominate time of possession and for this game to be lower-scoring than some would anticipate, despite Detroit extensively featuring a sandlot playbook of “go deep and I’ll hit you”. Atlanta needs to win this game, to keep pace with New Orleans for first place in the division. At 1-6, Detroit’s season is already a wash. 28-17 Falcons, Game of the Week.

This line seems to be trending down, so you may want to keep an eye on it and look to place closer to gametime.

Denver +3 (-108) at Pittsburgh
Its always hard to tell what Pittsburgh team is going to show up, but after last week’s anemic showing by Pitt and last week’s offensive shootout with Denver, these are two teams headed in opposite directions. The Steelers’ season is shot already at 2-5, whereas Denver needs a win to keep pace in the AFC.

Denver has an elite run-stopping defense, with some of the most athletic linebackers in the NFL. Denver gets defensive tackle Gerard Warren back, which will further help them contain the run. Denver will stack the line and force Big Ben to pass, and will produce more bad results for the Steelers. Against the Colts, you saw Denver’s standout shutdown corner Champ Bailey pretty much eliminate Marvin Harrison, but Manning had several other options especially Reggie Wayne. The Steelers don’t have a player of the caliber of Reggie Wayne at #2, and with Bailey shutting down Hines Ward, Ben Roethlisberger will be forced to throw to secondary targets. The Steelers had trouble last week keeping pressure off Big Ben, from an anemic Raiders pass rush. They’re going to have much more trouble dealing with an athletic Denver pass rush.

On the other side, the Steelers defense is fast and aggressive but can be penetrated with a strong ground game. Look for a big day from Mike Bell and a rough day for the Steelers. 21-17 Denver in the outright win, but go ahead and take the points here.

Chicago -13.5 (+102) vs Miami
Two touchdowns is a lot in the NFL, but against an anemic Miami offense I see Chicago covering this frequently enough to warrant a unit play in my system. The Dolphins have given up 26 sacks this year, second most in the NFL, and the Bears are going to be able to demolish a mediocre Miami offensive line. The Bears lead the NFL in defensive takeaways with 22 in seven games, as well as the turnover ratio with + 11. Other than Grossman’s meltdown against Arizona, the Bears have only one turnover per game the rest of the season. The Dolphins' offense has only averaged 14.6 points per game ranking 29th in the NFL, and is going up against the stingiest defense in the league, with Chicago allowing less than 10 points per game. I look for Chicago to build a quick early lead, and force Miami to the air in catch-up mode, which will allow Chicago’s defense to feast on a one-dimensional attack. . 28-7 Chicago.

San Diego -12 (-103) vs Cleveland
Another case of a lot of points, but still few enough that the Chargers should cover this frequently. The Chargers will miss starting LBs Shawne Merriman and Shaun Phillips, but they return defensive end Igo Olshansky to action Sunday. Even though the Chargers' front seven is banged up and has yielded back-to-back 100-yard games to the Chiefs and Rams, they’re still going to be able to stifle a woeful Browns offense. Chargers 28, Browns 14.

Tease of the Week: Colts +3, Chiefs +1.5
Kansas City’s line has been bet down pretty aggressively from an opening +2.5, and the Patriots have been bet up from -1 to -3. I like teasing both of these lines quite a bit. The Patriots game should serve to be a high-scoring, back-and-forth battle on the lines of the Broncos/Colts game last week ,and I expect it to be decided by a single possession. Likewise the Chiefs game should be decided by a single possession, so Wong-ing that game across the 3 and 7 should have a lot of value here. If you wanted you can also pay the additional juice for a 7-point teaser to get the Colts to a push on 10, but I’m content with going with the 2-team, 6-point teaser to Colts +9, Chiefs +7.5. Worth a three unit play in my system.

Summary of Picks for Week Nine

Atlanta -5 (-103) : 5.15u to win 5u

Denver +3 (-108) : 2.16u to win 2u

Chicago -13.5 (+102) : 1u to win 1.02u

San Diego -12 (-103) : 1.03u to win 1u

Colts +9, Chiefs +7.5: 3.3u to win 3u