Performify's Pigskin Picks - Week Eight

Picks are late but finally here. I put roughly twice as much time in to my analysis this week, trying to correct my downswing from the last two weeks. The writeups are not necessarily up to the usual standard, but the analysis behind the picks is better than ever, I think. My system does not like a lot of plays this week.

YTD RESULTS:
10-16-4 on posted picks, -8.24 units (excludes teasers)
1-3-3 on Game of the Week, -10.1 units.
3-2 on Tease of the Week, +1 units
Year to date combined on all posted NFL picks (includes teasers): -7.24 units

Remember as always, these are graduated units: cut them in half (2u for me = 1u for you) if you're playing traditional 1%-2% of your bankroll units.

Kansas City -4 -102 over Seattle
I grabbed a massive amount of this line when it first opened at KC +2.5, especially in teasers. As soon as I saw Hasselbeck go down in the game last week, I knew he wouldn't be playing this week and I knew it would change this line dramatically. KC reopened at -4, and I still think this game has value. Kansas City has a legendary home field advantage, and for Senaca Wallace making his first NFL start its going to be a long day. Kansas City is playing very, very well on defense right now and the offense is clicking. Chiefs QB Huard is a gametime decision but even if Brody Croyle comes in to back him up, this game will still go KC's way. In addition to Seattle missing their starting QB and RB, they're also missing right tackle Sean Locklear (1-game suspension for a personal conduct violation), and the Chiefs will be setup to capitalize. On offense, LJ has a monster day: last week the Seahawks were gashed for 175 yards at a 5.8-yard average by the Vikings. KC 24, Seattle 10. Game of the Week.

Saints -2 (-105) over Ravens
Both teams come into this game rested and prepared after their byes in Week 7. However, Ravens QB Steve McNair is coming off a Grade 2 concussion and neck sprain from their October 15th game. I look for him to take a couple big hits against a aggressive New Orleans defense, and play very tentative from there, possibly even getting yanked. I've already written this season a couple times about the Ravens being significantly overrated, and I think this is another good opportunity to fade them. Baltimore's defense is strong but they'll be forced to slow down their pass rush, otherwise they'll be forced to cover Reggie Bush 1-on-1 with a linebacker when he lines up in the slot. Saints 21, Ravens 17.

Green Bay -4 (-111) over Arizona
I'm not real happy with where this line has moved to, but its still worth a one unit play in my system. The Packers are rolling on offense, and with Ahman Green back are a much improved unit. Look for AJ Hawk to have a big day against Leinart, Hawk will be targeted for some backside blitzes. The Packers secondary can be tricky and will likely force Leinart in to at least one interception. Packers 24, Arizona 17.

Philly -9 (+106) over Jacksonville
Philly is in an absolute must-win, in a home game right before going on bye. They'll look to put this game away emphatically after losing on the last possession two weeks running. Jacksonville's defense is struggling with several significant injuries which will be the difference here. Eagles 28, Jags 17.

Tease of the Week: Giants -9.5, Pittsburgh -9 (2-team, 7-point teaser)
Teases down to Giants -2.5, Pittsburgh -2. While Pittsburgh is a road favorite here, I think they'll have little trouble handling Oakland by at least a field goal. Likewise with the Giants at home against the Bucs. Lots of value moving these spreads down. Two unit play.

Summary of Picks for Week Eight

Kansas City -4 (-102): 5.1u to win 5u

New Orleans -2 (-105) : 3.15u to win 3u

Green Bay -4 (-111) : 1.11u to win 1u

Philly -9 (+106) : 1u to win 1.06u

Teaser: Giants -2.5, Pittsburgh -2 (7-point, 2-team, -120) : 2.4u to win 2u

PRIDE 32: Real Deal 10/21

Quick writeup on the Pride 32: Real Deal fights tonight. Lots of UFC fans who are first timers to a Pride PPV, so I'm going to write up each fight even though a lot don't warrant any action. Everything current lines from Pinnacle at the time of this post

Fedor Emelianenko vs Mark Coleman
Fedor Emelianenko -859
Mark Coleman +779

If you're completely new to Pride, Fedor is the first name you should learn and love. Fedor is the Pride heavyweight champion, is undefeated in Pride and has a 23-1 MMA record, his only loss being a freak cut early in the first round of a 2000 event outside of Pride. Fedor is an absolute monster, and one of the best fighters anywhere in the world. He's a Russian Sambo champion (a Russian military martial art that is a cross between judo and jiu-jitsu) who has extremely heavy hands, and is completely versed on the ground and on his feet.

Mark Coleman was first seen at UFC 10 in 1996, winning that tournament and had a 6-0 record in the UFC until he was beaten by Maurice Smith at UFC 14 in 1997. Coleman then lost two more UFC fights, and jumped to Pride. He currently holds a 15-7 MMA record. Coleman turns 43 years old in December. Coleman left Pride in 2001, and then returned in 2003. He's fought roughly once a year since returning: defeated Don Frye in 2003 at Pride 26, then was beaten by Fedor (first round armbar) in 2004, was defeated by Mirko Filipovic in 2005 at Pride 29, then won a bout in Bushido over an OK opponent in late 2005 and then in early 2006, Coleman defeated the very impressive Mauricio "Shogun" Rua in what was kind of a fluke win: Rua broke his arm being taken down by Coleman early in the first round, and Coleman was awarded the victory.

Yes, Coleman has a chance in this fight, this is no where near the "lock" that Ortiz/Liddell was, but that said: Fedor wins this fight 95% of the time, in my opinion, which makes this line +EV and worth a small bet. I won't be loading up on Fedor, but I will make a bet here "for value", to win one unit.

Mauricio Rua vs Kevin Randleman
Mauricio Rua -281
Kevin Randleman +261

This is the best value on the card, in my opinion. Shogun Rua is a member of the vaunted Brazilian Chute Boxe organization, a teammate of Wanderlei Silva among others. Rua has a 13-2 MMA record, his only losses that broken arm early to Coleman, and a loss back in 2003 to Renato "Babalu" Sobral. Randleman is a former national champion wrestler from The Ohio State University, holds a 16-11 MMA record. Randleman was a standout wrestler but is 1-4 in his last five fights, with his only win over a mediocre 8-8 fighter, and 2-6 since 2003. Randleman, who just turned 35, will probably make this fight a little dangerous for Shogun Rua, but Rua is in a completely different class now. Rua to win 2 units.

Dan Henderson vs Vitor Belfort
Dan Henderson -186
Vitor Belfort +176

This is the fight I'm most interested in on the card. Dan "Hollywood" Henderson fought in the UFC back at UFC 17 in 1998 and after two wins in the UFC made the jump to Pride, where he has been very dominant. Henderson holds the Pride Middleweight (183-pound) belt. Vitor "The Phenom" Belfort, a disciple of the infamous Gracie clan, has long been one of my favorite fighters. He made his major MMA debut at UFC 12 in 1997, winning that tournament with two ferocious first-round knockouts. Vitor ran off to a 10-2 MMA record through 2001, then lost to Chuck Liddell at UFC 37.5 in 2002, returned to beat Marvin Eastman at UFC 43, then defeated Randy Couture at UFC 46 by cutting Randy's eye with a punch, to take Randy's belt. In the end of 2004 Vitor rematched Couture and lost decisively, lost a split decision to Tito Ortiz at UFC 51 in early 2005, and then left the UFC. Since leaving, Vitor is 1-1 in Pride and 1-1 in other MMA organizations.

Vitor has tremendous hand speed, is a tremendous striker with ground skills as well. And at six months shy of his thirtieth birthday, still has tremendous potential. A win here puts Vitor back on the map and will set up some very good future opportunities. Henderson is coming off his first loss at the hands of Kazuo Misaki in the quarter-finals of the BUSHIDO Welterweight tournament. I'm going with Vitor here for a small bet, looking for an upset.

Josh Barnett vs Pawel Nastula
Josh Barnett -751
Pawel Nastula +681

Very one-sided line here for a reason. Barnett is an up-and-coming heavyweight from the US, with a 19-4 MMA record. Pawel Nastula is a highly decorated Polish judo fighter who captured Olympic gold at the '96 games in Atlanta. Nastula is being fed to Barnett here: while Nastula will always have a longshot chance of grabbing a submission, Barnett should win this one early, in dominating fashion. Worth a unit bet, but this is a very small edge.

Joey Villasenor vs Robbie Lawler
Joey Villasenor -126
Robbie Lawler +116

By far the closest fight on the card. Villasenor has one fight in Pride, a loss, but holds a 22-4 MMA record, mostly in King of the Cage. This is Robbie Lawler's Pride debut. Lawler is a Miletech fighter who fought in the UFC from 2002 (UFC 37) to 2004 (UFC 50) and has a 11-4 MMA record. His conditioning has been suspect recently, getting derailed by a late-fight submission against Jason Miller in which he appeared to gas in the third round big time. I like Lawler, but I think this fight is very close, too close to warrant a bet unless you're looking for action across the board.

Phil Baroni vs Yosuke Nishijima
Phil Baroni -381
Yosuke Nishijima +351

Two straight-up strikers. Baroni isn't the brightest of fighters, frequently making mistakes in fights, for example wanting to stand and trade with other good strikers instead of taking the fight to the ground where his wrestling skills give him an edge. I'd stay well away from this fight: if Baroni shows good judgement he can win this easy by taking the fight to the ground. However if Baroni decides to stand and trade with the Japanese boxer, there's always a possible KO either way. Baroni should win but its too risky to bet in my opinion.

Kazuhiro Nakamura vs Travis Galbraith
Kazuhiro Nakamura -901
Travis Galbraith +811

Nakamura is a judo fighter with a 10-5 MMA record, most notable for beating Kevin Randleman by UD in 2005 and then getting KO'd by Wanderlei Silva in his very next match. Galbraith is a Canadian practicioner of jiu-jitsu, with a 10-3 MMA record. Galbraith really isn't on the same level of competitor as Nakamura, but I wouldn't bet this fight, the line is pretty well set.

Recommended plays, in order of expected value:

Mauricio Rua -306: 5.62u to win 2u

Fedor Emelianenko -859: 8.59u to win 1u

Josh Barnett -751: 1.88u to win .25u

Vitor Belfort +176: .28u to win .5u

Performify's Pigskin Picks: Week Seven

So far this season has produced very weird, very streaky results for yours truly. I open the season 8-1-1 +16 units the first three weeks, and then massive downer week four thanks to a last-second loss on the Chargers, slightly profitable week five, then another bomb last week losing every game except a push on one. Showing solid results 4/6 weeks and having those other two weeks erase your profit is frustrating.

This week, all the games are very one-sided in public opinion. For the first time that I can remember in a while, every game but one tracked at Wagerline is a consensus play, and of those every game but one (Pack +5 at Miami) is the favorite. So unless you like the underdogs this week, you're going to be playing with the public.

YTD RESULTS:
10-11-3 on posted picks, -1 unit (excludes teasers)
1-3-2 on Game of the Week, -10.1 units.
2-2 on Tease of the Week, -1 units
Year to date combined on all posted NFL picks (includes teasers): -2 units

Carolina +3 (+103) at Cincinati
I love this matchup for a couple reasons. Cinci is struggling on the offensive line, forced to start rookie Andrew Whitworth in place of injured left tackle Levi Jones. That moves Eric Steinbach to left guard, and Eric Ghiaciuc to center. So one rookie starting, and two linemen starting in off positions. And the Bengals can’t afford to help out on the left side, as the Panthers have Julius Peppers at the right end, who is having an absolutely phenomenal year so far. Cinci has struggled on the ground recently, failing to rush for 100 yards in three consecutive games. Carolina as well hasn’t allowed a 100-yard rusher in its last four games, games which they’ve won. Cinci is struggling on defense, faced with numerous key injuries with three starters expected out: safety Dexter Jackson, linebackers Rashad Jeanty and Brian Simmons, plus DT Sam Adams is banged up but expected to play.

The Bengals have surrendered an average of 177 yards rushing the past three games, losing two of the three. Bengals opponents have all done the same thing in the past few weeks: played a lot of deep Cover 3 zone, limiting the big passes and forcing Cinci to throw short and try to get yards in chunks instead. Look for the Panthers to load up on the run and play deep zone, forcing Palmer to throw short passes based on defensive pressure. The Bengals are outmatched on defense, with corners Deltha O’Neal and Tory James both outmatched by Steve Smith and Meshawn Johnson.

The Panthers put up 414 yards against the league's second-ranked defense last week. Look for them to likewise explode against a depleted, struggling Bengals defense. Panthers 28, Bengals 17. Game of the Week. Also worth a one-unit play on the moneyline (+149).

Philly -6 (-104) at Tampa Bay
The case of the unstoppable offense versus the... well, mediocre defense. The Eagles have the No. 1 offense in the NFL, averaging 402 yards per game, while the Buccaneers' defense is allowing 324.4 yards per game.

Tampa Bay gave up big defensive tackle Anthony McFarland (a first round pick in 1999) to Indianapolis this week in a trade for a second-round pick next year. While Philly doesn't traditionally run up the middle, Tampa's defense is already sucking wind on the season, and the loss of a big playmaker up front won't help. The Bucs play a four-man rush, drop seven Cover 2 scheme, which they'll use extensively Sunday to try to limit McNabb. This should allow Westbrook to have a big day, both on the ground and on short passes under the zone. Also look for a lot of quick slants and crossing routes to take advantage of the middle of the field against that Cover 2. Most importantly, Tampa starting left corner Brian Kelly is again listed as "doubtful" and is not expected to play (he has missed three of the last four games with turf toe) and is replaced by backup Corner Juran Bolden, who will be a frequent target for McNabb.

On defense, the Eagles get another opportunity to tee off on an inexperienced QB. Rookie Bruce Gradkowski has shown talent so far this season, but he showed typical rookie inconsistency last week, and he's going to be hit with varying schemes and pressure packagesthis week from Philly defensive coordinator Jim Johnson. Tampa Bay loves to spread the field on offense, but against Philly's aggresisve pass rush they're not going to be able to spread as much without Gradkowski paying the price. Look for the Philly D to force the rookie QB in to game-changing mistakes. Philly should have at least +2 turnovers here, and are likely to even get a defensive score. Look for a rush-centric offense from Tampa Bay, without much success. As with last week, the Bucs are forsced to start rookies on the right side of their offensive line: Jeremy Trueblood and Devin Joseph. Fortunately for Tampa Bay they're not facing Jevon Kearse at LDE, but second-year standout Trent Cole has done an excellent job filling in for Kearse, with six sacks and 28 tackles on the season.

The Eagles are in a must-win scenario here, and I expect them to come out strong with short passes under the Tampa zone and a heavy dose - well at least heavier than normal for the pass-happy Eagles - of Brian Westbrook. Stallworth is expected to play, giving the Eagles a strong #2 receiver, especially on the short stuff where his height is an advantage. Eagles left tackle William Thomas from questionable to probable on Friday, which helps them out significantly on offense as well. 24-14 Eagles.

San Diego -5 (-103) at Kansas City
Yes, its a road favorite. And yes, the Chargers are playing at a very tough Arrowhead stadium. And I know a lot of people are starting to hammer the Chiefs here, saying this spread is too big. But I have this game going the other way, big time. The Chargers have a big revenge factor here: Kansas City eliminated the Chargers from playoff contention last year with a 20-7 victory in week 16 last season, getting absolutely pounded. However, this is a much different Kansas City unit to last year, especially so in rush defense. The Chiefs retooled defensively, becoming focused on stopping the pass. Which they’ve done well, and has resulted in a better-than-expected result for the Chiefs with Trent Green out eating applesauce. However you saw the Chiefs get killed by the Steelers last week, primarily due to 219-yards rushing from the Pittsburgh ground game. Look for LT and backup Michael Turner to gash the KC defense similarly on the ground all day.

The Chiefs got in trouble offensively last week because they fell behind early and were forced to become one-dimensional. The Chargers defense is significantly superior to Pittsburgh, and will shut down the Chiefs running game even further. The KC running game took yet another blow this week, losing their fullback Ronnie Cruz for the season, and they have no one to replace him. LJ has already struggled this year without the dominant offensive line and without standout FB Tony Richardson, and now with no fullback (or a tight end filling in) he’ll be even more limited, and against the best rush defense in the NFL to boot. Last week KC center Casey Wiegmann had trouble moving Steelers NT Casey Hampton off the ball, and San Diego NT Jamal Williams is even better against the run. LJ is going to have real trouble finding any room on Sunday.

On offense, the Chiefs have real weaknesses at the tackle positions, and the Chargers have two very strong pass rushing outside linebackers in Shawne Merriman and Shaun Phillips (11.5 combined sacks on the season). Look for both of these big, quick guys to have a big day putting Chiefs backup QB Damon Huard on his back. Merriman’s presence will force Tony Gonzalez to be kept in as a blocker frequently, significantly limiting the Chiefs offensive options.

Look for KC coach Herm Edwards to play a conservative game, trying to keep the game low scoring and hopefully close, but the Chargers are clicking on offense and I expect numerous big plays, both rushing and passing. Look for Herm’s conservatism to backfire early, with the Chargers jumping to an early lead and rolling from there. Lots of people think this game will be close, and low scoring. I don’t see either. 34-10 San Diego.

Pittsburgh -2.5 (-106) at Atlanta
The Steelers are clicking offensively, while Atlanta is struggling. The Falcons lost left guard Matt Lehr for four games (steroid violation) and faces a very tough rushing defense in Pittsburgh. Atlanta has three of its starting defensive linemen injured: Rod Coleman (turf toe), Patrick Kerney (hamstring) and John Abraham (groin). Last week without these three late in the game, the Falcons got abused on the ground by the Giants, and they face another strong rushing attack in Fast Willie Parker. The Steelers should have success early running against the banged-up Falcons defense, forcing safety help in defending the run, allowing Big Ben to go over the top for some big plays.

Unfortunately for the Steelers they will again be without starting ROLB Joey Porter, but the Pittsburgh defense still has plenty of talent in their linebackers to contain the Vick Experience, as long as none of them get sidelined from the herp via Ron Mexico while bringing him down. 24-17 Steelers.

Arizona -3 (-104) at Oakland
While Oakland may be playing like this is their Superbowl given that this might be the only game they can win all year, I just can't see them winning this game even at home. Arizona's defense was aggressive and quick against a much superior Chicago team last week, and if they give Oakland's QB half as much pressure he'll put up Grossman-like numbers. Dennis Green fired offensive coordinator Keith Rowen after their botched game against Chicago, and the QBs coach Mike Kruczek will now be calling plays. Look for coach Kruczek to keep the accelerator to the floor, and light up the pitiful Oakland Raiders. Oakland plays man-to-man on defense, which should benefit Leinart as there’s less to deal with at the line of scrimmage.

The Cardinals have a significant edge on defense; their line and linebackers are very speedy and will present significant problems for a struggling Raider offense. Look for several Oakland rushing plays to be broken up in the backfield, and look for Andrew Walter to continue to be battered. Walter already has 11 turnovers (seven interceptions) this season through five games, with a passer rating of 43.4. The Cardinals are currently ranked third in the NFL in takeaways with 15, and made Grossman look like an idiot last week forcing him in to six turnovers and a 10.7 QB rating. That same Cardinals defense will absolutely feast on Walter this week. Cardinals 28, Raiders 10.

Tease of the Week: Indy -2, Atlanta +9.5: 2-team, 7-point teaser. Teased from Indy -9, Atlanta +2.5
I have the Colts with a high probability, but not by a large margin. Portis should have a big day against the Colts weak rush defense, keeping Washington in the game but never quite in reach of a win. Likewise despite Pittsburgh being a play in my system, I have a lot of value on moving the Falcons line on the other side as I expect the game to stay close.

Summary of Picks for Week Seven

Carolina +3 (+105) : 6u to win 6.3u

Carolina ML (+149) : 1u to win 1.49u

Philly -6 (-104) : 2.08u to win 2u

San Diego -5 (-103) : 2.06u to win 2u

Pittsburgh -2.5 (-106) : 1.06u to win 1.15u

Arizona -3 (-104) : 1.04u to win 1u

TEASER: Colts -2, Falcons +9.5: 2.6u to win 2u

Performify's Pigskin Picks: Week 6

Sorry these are later than usual. Busy week between handicapping two MMA events + the NFL, plus trying to get as much time in on my bike before winter arrives...

Results to date: Last week: 1-2-1 on picks +0.77 units. 1-0 on Teaser +2 units. Total +2.77 units last week.

YTD RESULTS: 10-7-2 on posted picks, +8.53 units (excludes teasers)
1-2-2 on Game of the Week, -4.8 units. 2-1 on Tease of the Week, +0 units
Year to date combined on all posted NFL picks (includes teasers): +8.53 units

Eagles -3 (-107) at New Orleans
I've heard quite a bit of talk of this as a "letdown game" for Philadelphia following a tough matchup with division rivals Dallas. But I really do not expect that here. The Eagles bring the NFL's top-rated offense and No. 1-ranked passing offense to New Orleans to face a Saints' defense that allowed a season-high 406 total yards in a 24-21 win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last week. The Saints are allowing 4.9 ypc on the ground, and the Eagles have Brian Westbrook the healthiest he's been since the season started (practicing two full days this week, and then taking Friday off to ensure no swelling in the knee). The Saints just lost starting strong safety Roman Harper to a torn ACL, and are forced to replace him with Omar Stoutmire. Stoutmire was active in the Saints dime package, so they're forced to fill his spot there with 13-year veteran Jay Bellamy off the waiver wire. These two gaps in the secondary will hurt the Saints pretty badly against the NFL's best passing attack and best offensive attack. The strong safety is an especially important role against McNabb due to his mobility. Look for McNabb to scramble even more than normal, forcing the second-string safety to commit and then bombing several big downfield passes behind him (or taking the ball himself if Stoutmire doesn't commit). The Eagles are also deadly off play-action passes, which put a lot of pressure on the safeties as well. All-in-all, a backup safety starting is about the worst thing that could happen to the Saints this week short of losing Brees. The Saints corners are physical but slow and can get burned. Mike McKenzie is quick but lacks downfield speed, and Fred Thomas is a tough solid tackler but is only 5-9 and can be abused downfield by the Eagles big, fast receivers Brown and Baskett. The Saints will frequently use cover-2, in which Eagles tight end LJ Smith will be able to abuse the slower, smaller Saints linebackers.

On defense, look for the Eagles to put strong safety Mike Lewis in the box a lot to help contain the Saints rushing attack and force them to the air. Thanks to the return of cornerback Lito Sheppard, the Eagles can afford to have more safety help on the run game and leave their standout defensive backs in man. Eagles defensive coordinator Jim Johnson is one of the NFL's highest paid assistants for a reason, and you'll see why in this game. Look for him to throw a variety of schemes at Brees to keep the Saints off-balance and Brees out of sync. The Eagles also have a strong special teams unit: their punt coverage unit is giving up only 3.8 yards a return, with a long of 11 yards on the season. Don't look for any monster returns out of Bush this week.

I know the Saints are a feel-good team right now, with an impressive 4-1 start. But this week their schedule turns against them. Following the Eagles, the Saints play the Ravens, Bucs, Steelers, Bengals and Falcons. The Eagles have won six straight against the Saints, and this week makes it seven. 21-17 Philly, game of the week.

Bengals -6 (+114) at Bucs
While rookie QB Bruce Gradkowski's mobility sparked the Bucs offense against the Saints in Week five, the Bucs had a week off to prepare for that game. Here the tables are turned: the Bengals had a week off to analyze their offensive struggles and With less time to prepare, against a superior offensive attack, the Bucs won't see the same success. Tampa Bay's defense has been weak against the run all year - they allowed 123 yards to Deuce McAllister last week, for example - and Rudi Johnson should put up monster numbers against them. Cinci has big strong run blockers, especially at the edge with their tight end and fullback, and should win the battle at the point of attack. Marvin Lewis' defense is a master at creating turnovers and against a vanilla offense and rookie quarterback you should see at least two turnovers in the Bengals favor here: Cincinnati's defense has produced 12 takeaways in just four games. The Bengals have been pourous against the run this year, but Cadillac hasn't been good all season with the exception of last week's performance. With the bye week to prepare, the Bengals will certainly come in with a gameplan for shutting down Williams and getting pressure on Gradkowski. The Bengals are coming off a bad beating by the Patriots and will rebound in a big way here. On the other side, the Bucs are being overrated here because of a solid performance off a bye week against an overrated Saints team. 28-17 Bengals, worth a two unit play.

Kansas City +7 (-113) at Pittsburgh
Yes, Larry Johnson is definitely playing. The Steelers are in a must-win situation, but this is too many points to give up against a strong Kansas City team, for a poorly performing Pittsburgh team. Look for the Steelers to jam the line and try to force backup QB Damon Huard to beat them. Huard has proven adequeate to the challenges so far: his 107.4 QB rating is second in the NFL, and he's yet to throw an INT. Look for a lot of short passes from Huard, including the usual assortment of screens and flares to LJ. The casual fan thinks that Pittsburgh will blitz Huard in to oblivion, but KC's offense is probably the best to deal with the blitz of any team: they use a ton of quick, rhythm throws that are usually very successful against teams that blitz too much. Also look for Huard to take a couple shots downfield.

Kansas City has very quick and athletic linebacking corps, which matchup very well with Willie Parker's perimiter rushing style. Gunther Cunningham's defense is allowing only 13 points and just 254.3 yards a game, which is fourth best in the NFL. The Chiefs get OT Kyle Turley back this week, but they're planning on keeping him on the bench to Jordan Black - the team's gone 2-0 since Black took over - but Turley provides some nice depth. Look for the KC defense to continue their Cover 2 defense to limit big plays, to shut down the Steelers rushing attack with their linebackers, and force the game on to the slumping shoulders of Big Ben: Roethlisberger has seven interceptions and no touchdowns on the season. 20-17 Pittsburgh for the KC cover.

Falcons -3 (-105) vs Giants
The Falcons combine the NFL's top rushing offense with one of the best defenses at stopping the run. The Giants depend on a balanced attack, and they won't find much balance against a Falcons defense allowing less than 70 yards per game on the ground. Look for the Falcons to put eight men in the box constantly moving up either of their two good safeties, to both contain Tiki Barber and put additional pressure on Eli Manning. The Falcons can get good pressure on the QB with just their front four, which should allow them to drop seven men in coverage on obvious passing downs. The Giants will depend on not getting in third and long situations, and the Falcons will do their best to force exactly that. The Giants are doing a decent job of containing opposing rushing attacks, but that's mostly a misnomer because they've been giving up 230 yards per game in the air with a porous secondary. The Falcons are also coming off a bye week here, and will be rested on both sides of the ball. The Falcons get big defensive end John Abraham back as well as middle linebacker Ed Hartwell, both big boosts to their defense. The Falcons also have an edge at special teams, with electrifying kick returner Allen Rossum playing like he did in 2004. Falcons 24, Giants 17.

Jets -3 (+115 on Bodog) vs Dolphins
The Jets got absolutely smoked last week against the Jaguars, but will rebound this week against a mediocre Miami team. Even with Little Joey Harrington at QB, the Miami offensive line has serious issues that are holding back both their rushing and passing attacks. The Jets will attack the weak Dolphins offensive line, disrupting the passing game and stunting the run as well. Look for the Jets to run to the left all day, with emerging RB Leon Washington running behind linemen Pete Kendall and D'Brickashaw Ferguson at the weaker (against the run) Miami defensive tackle Vonnie Holiday and end Jason Taylor. The Texans mediocre rushing attack was able to run on the Dolphins by running left, and the Jets will certainly be able to do so. That will open up play action for Pennington. 21-17 Jets. Taking this at -3 instead of the avaialble -2.5 as I have the Jets winning by more than three more often than normal here. Currently -3 -113 is available on Pinnacle with a slightly better -3 +115 on Bodog.

Tease of the Week: San Diego -3, Chicago -4
I grabbed several units of a very +EV tease on Sunday, and posted it on 2+2 at that time. It was only up for about 20 minutes though: the Chicago game opened at -9.5 and moved quickly from there, currently to -11. San Diego likewise opened at -7.5 and has currently moved all the way to -9. So my teaser is a much more +EV tease of San Diego -0.5, Chicago -2.5. But since that was open for only twenty minutes, I'm going to go ahead and recommend this tease for those following along and looking for a teaser this week. While not nearly as +EV as the early tease I grabbed, I still expect this two team, seven point tease to win with a very high probability.

Summary of Posted Plays

Eagles -3 (-107) : 5.35u to win 5u

Bengals -6 (+114) : 2u to win 2.28u

Chiefs +7 (-113) : 1.13u to win 1u

Falcons -3 (-105) : 1.05u to win 1u

Jets -3 (+115) : 1u to win 1.15u

Teaser: San Diego -3, Chicago -4: 1.2u to win 1u

UFC 64 Full Card Predictions

UFC 63 results: 5-2 on bets, -0.36 units. 5-3 on picks.
Ultimate Fight Night #7 results: 8-1 on picks, 1-0 on bets.

Predictions for this weekend's fight with the current lines from Pinnacle.

Cheik Kongo vs Carmelo Marrero
Cheik Kongo -511
Carmelo Marrero +461

Kongo is 9-2-1 in MMA with first round KO's in UFC 61 and 62. Kongo is being groomed for a shot at the heavyweight title, due to the serious lack of talent in the UFC heavyweight division. Marrero is 5-0 in MMA but being thrown in to the woodchipper here. He's certainly not in Kongo's league. Marrero is a ground-and-pound banger and certainly has a chance here if he can somehow get Kongo down and control him. But Kongo wins this with a first round KO. Worth a half-unit play (to win) even at this price, if you're interested in having action on all the fights.

Keith Jardine vs Mike Nickels
Keith Jardine -476
Mike Nickels +436

TUF3 graduate Mike Nickels faces off against TUF2 graduate Keith Jardine. Jardine's only loss since early 2002 aside from in TUF was a ridiculous decision loss against

Stephan Bonnar at UFC Fight Night 4 in April of this year. The heavily tatooed Nickels is a solid fighter with good ground skills, and is a bigger fighter at 6'4" to Jardine's 6'2". However, Jardine's striking and leg kicks are going to be enough to bring this home. Nickels certainly can't trade with Jardine on the feet, and Jardine has the ability to stuff the takedown and keep this standing. Jardine will use his effective jab and very effective leg kicks and stuff takedown attemps and put this away in the second round with a TKO from strikes.

Sean Sherk vs Kenny Florian
Sean Sherk -301
Kenny Florian +271

This fight is to claim the newly-reinstated vacant lightweight belt. Sherk is an absolute monster, built like a brickhouse with tremendous strength, tremendous wrestling and grappling, and even very good striking. Sherk holds a very impressive 30-2-1 MMA record. We most recently saw Sherk defeat Nick Diaz by UD at UFC:59. Prior to that Sherk got TKO'd by GSP at UFC:56 and went the distance in a very tough fight with Matt Hughes in UFC:42. Kenny Florian is a BJJ blackbelt and very impressisive grappler. Florian lost to Diego Sanchez in the first round at teh Ultimate Fighter I finale back in April 2005, but since has won over Alex Karalexis at Ultime Fight Night 1, and submitted Kit Cope at the TUF:2 finale and Sam Stout at the TUF:3 finale. Florian has three chances to win this fight: a cut, a very lucky flash knockout, or a submission. Florian does have very good jiu-jitsu skills, but Sherk has never been submitted and never even been close to getting caught in a submission. A cut is certainly always a possiblity, but a flash knockout is very unlikely: Sherk has a monster chin and was able to outbox a very good striker in Nick Diaz. Sherk is by far the best bet on this card, in my opinion. Sherk by first round strikes via ground-and-pound. Worth a four unit play (to win).

Spencer Fisher vs Dan Lauzon
Spencer Fisher -401
Dan Lauzon +361

Fisher is a monster striker fighting out of the Miletich camp, with a 18-2 MMA record. Fisher lost a split decision to Sam Stout at UFC:58 (USA vs Canada) and then KO'd Matt Wiman with a flying knee at UFC:60 (Gracie vs Hughes). Dan Lauzon is only 18 years old, is the younger brother of lightweight Joe Lauzon who just recently pulled out the massive upset over Jens Pulver. Lauzon stepped up when Naoyuki Kotani couldn't get in to the country due to visa issues. Fisher has never been submitted, has never been knocked out, his only two losses come by decisions. I think this is going to be an interesting fight as we'll get our first real look at Lauzon, but I can't imagine the 18-year old will be able to stand up to the impressive Fisher in his UFC debut. Fisher by second round TKO, but the pure unknown factor of Dan Lauzon is always a concern.

Clay Guida vs Justin James
Clay Guida -277
Justin James +257

Undercard fight we probably won't see unless something spectacular happens. Guida is an up-and-coming figher at 24 years old with a 20 - 6 MMA record all in the last thre years. Guida is a very strong wrestler (won the National Junior Collegiate Championship in 2001) and has some decent MMA experience, holding the Strikeforce lightweight Championship at one point and holding three belts in regional (midwest) fighting organizations. Justin James is 11-5 in MMA competition with early loses to Rich Clementi and Jorge Gurgel, but don't let that record fool you: James is 7-1 in MMA since 2004. He's a very strong submission fighter: all but one of those seven wins since 2004 have been by submission, almost all of them by armbar. Guida has an impressive record, but he's fought five times in 2006 and has lost three of those fight fights, two by submission. I think there's a reasonable chance that the experienced and older James catches Guida in a submission here. James by armbar in the second round.

Rich Franklin vs Anderson Silva
Rich Franklin -194
Anderson Silva +181

I think just about everyone knows who they are and what they've done. Franklin is one of the most intelligent fighters in the UFC, and he'll come in to this fight well prepared with a detailed gameplan on how to secure this victory. Yes, Silva has been impressive in building his 16 - 4 MMA record, he has very strong Muay Thai skills and a very active guard. But Franklin will eke out a decision victory here. Yes, I expect this to go all five rounds. It will be a war, and Franklin will be in danger all the way, but I think he wins pretty handily with a smart gameplan, probably with a lot of takedowns and slow steady pace on the ground. I think this line is well-set and there's not a tremendous value in either side.

Yushin Okami vs Kalib Starnes
Yushin Okami -124
Kalib Starnes +114

Okami is a teammate of Caol Uno and a strong ground and pound fighter. He was last in the UFC on the undercard of UFC:62 (Liddell vs Sobral) where he beat Alan Belcher by UD. Okami is currently the third-ranked middleweight in Pancase. Okami has fought some talent, including Anderson Silva, and a close decision loss to a tough Jake Shields. Starnes, from TUF:3, has an impressive 7-0-1 MMA record, but he hasn't beaten anyone of note except a KO of Jason MacDonald in late 2005. Starnes is outmatched here, and Okami wins this handily. First round TKO for Okami.

Jon Fitch vs Kuniyoshi Hironaka
Jon Fitch -284
Kuniyoshi Hironaka +264

Fitch was suppsoed to be on the first season of The Ultimate Fighter, but has been tearing up the Ultimate Fight Night undercards instead, with wins over Brock Larson (UFN:2), Josh Burkman (UFN:4) and a TKO of Thiago Alves at UFN:5. Fitch fights under American Kickboxing Academy (AKA) and is a well-rounded fighter with a strong wrestling background (wrestled in a solid program at Purdue) with a purple belt in jiu-jitsu. Fitch faces yet another tough opponent in Japanese fighter Kuniyoshi Hironaka. Hironaka holds black belts in BJJ and Judo, and is ranked #7 in the world in Shooto. Hironaka has a win (split decision) over Nick Diaz back in 2002 and most recently TKO'd former UFC figher Renato Verissimo at Rumble On The Rock #9 in April of this year. Hironaka was originally scheduled to fight BJ Penn on the Ortiz/Shamrock III card (which would have been an awersome fight) but that got scrapped when Penn stepped in to fight Hughes while GSP was injured. Its tough to argue with Fitch's success in recent fights, but I think this line is too high. Fitch would have to win this fight three times out of four to make his line +EV, and I think the fight is a little closer than that. Going to call Hironaka in the upset with a second-round triangle choke, but if Hironaka can't catch Fitch with a submission look for Fitch to ride this to a decision win otherwise.

Kurt Pellegrino vs Junior Assuncao
Kurt Pellegrino -306
Junior Assuncao +276

"Batman" Pellegrino is 8-3 in MMA after getting derailed by Drew Fickett at UFC:61. Pellegrino makes a return to the octagon four months later to try to avenge that loss. Pellegrino is a strong wrestler with good jiu-jitsu, and trains with Hermes Franca. Assuncao is a capoeira and BJJ fighter. Junior has good kicks from his capoeira training, but he's not going to get a chance to use them. This fight is going to the ground, where Pellegrino has the edge in strength and in BJJ technique. Batman gets the submission, only question is which round. I'll call the second.

Summary of Picks in order of expected value:

Sean Sherk -301 : 12u to win 4u

Yushin Okami -124 : 2.48u to win 2u

Kurt Pellegrino -306 : 3.06u to win 1u

Justin James +257 : .5u to win 1.285u

Kuniyoshi Hironaka +264 : .25u to win .66u

Cheik Kongo -511 : 2.55u to win .5u

Rich Franklin -194 : .97u to win .5u

Spencer Fisher -401 : 1u to win .25u

Keith Jardine -476 : 1.19u to win .25u

For what its worth, i think the last four fights (Kongo, Franklin, Fisher, Jardine) have very marginal value, and are all probably worth staying away from unless you're just looking for action across the board.

Ultimate Fight Night 10.10.06

Quick thoughts on the fights tonight, Ultimate Fight Night 10.10.06.

First off, see this thread on the 2+2 Sports Betting forum that I moderate, for active discussion.

Second, I'm only making one official pick for this fight: Ortiz over Shamrock. I literally have rolled my entire sports betting bankroll on to this fight, and strongly believe that the line is +EV at anything under -1900. The line is currently a shade above -800, which certainly requires a large outlay for any real winnings, but this is about as guaranteed as it gets in MMA.

Here are quick full-card predictions, with some quick thoughts, and the current lines:

Tito Ortiz (-832) vs. Ken Shamrock : Ortiz by KO in the first round. Looks almost identical to the first fight, except you see Shamrock actually get knocked out by an elbow this time as the UFC waits a bit longer to stop things.

Kendall Grove (-446) vs. Chris Price : Win #2 on the night for Team Punishment. Kendall starts by winning the battle in standup and finishes on the ground. TKO from strikes.

Ed Herman vs. Jason MacDonald (+256): Jason MacDonald in a big upset. Jason is a strong fighter from Canada with great conditioning. Herman already had suspect conditioning in hte Kendall Groves fight and I'm not going to pick him here for that reason.

Matt Hamill (-238) vs. Seth Petruzelli : Team Punishment win #3 on the night. This will be a tough test for Hamill, but working with Tito since he left the show, Hamill will come out and take care of business. Expect lots of wrestling and takedowns, I'm not sure on Hamill's ground-based offense yet, but he's got the wrestling and takedowns to win this and I'm sure Tito has taught him how to use his elbows by now. Calling a UD win here but if the elbows come out we will see a TKO likely in the second.

Nathan Marquardt vs. Crafton Wallace : no line that i've seen. Should be a great fight though, really surprised this is on the undercard. But I guess with the Ortiz fight we should have plenty of time for an undercard bout or two. Wallace is a highly regarded Muay Thai fighter with strong ground skills, Marquardt is a ground fighter with strong striking. I'll call Marquardt here as he's more experienced, but would need to see a line to make an official pick because this should be close...

Tony DeSouza (-324) vs. Dustin Hazelett : This was supposed to be a highlight match for Joe Riggs but he's hurt so we get Hazelett. DeSouza fought in UFC 31, 32 and 33 and went 2-1 in that stretch, and looked pretty solid. First return to the octagon since then obviously, but he's been fighting in MMA since 2004 and has gone 4-1 in five fights since his return to MMA. He's a strong BJJ fighter and wrestler. Hazelett takes the fight on three weeks notice, but is a training partner of Rich Franklin and Jorge Gurgel so he will be in shape for the fight. This fight definitely goes to the ground, both are solid submission fighters, and we'll see who pulls out the sub. Probably DeSouza but I wouldn't bet this.

Josh Haynes vs. Rory Singer (+132) : I really don't like either of these guys and hopefully we don't have to see it. Singer has a reach advantage and a definite advantage on the ground, Haynes has proven himself vulnerabile to submissions, and has been aggressive in the past to the point of over-aggression. I think we see Rory catch him in a triangle in the second round. In a batch of non-picks, this is the worst of them. Could go either way, really don't even want to see either of these guys on screen if I can help it.

Thiago Alves (+129) vs. John Alessio : We were supposed to see Alves fight at UFC 62, but Alves got sick and Nick Diaz stepped in and won a close decision over Josh Neer. Should be another close fight, and one we'll hopefully see. Both guys are skilled in BJJ, Thiago should have the standup edge with better Muay Thai but Alessio has the reach advantage. Alessio is favored for a reason, but I think Alves pulls the close upset. Alessio is going to want to ensure this doesn't go to the judges (he feels he got robbed in the UD loss to Diego Sanchez at UFC 60) and gets a little overaggressive and gets caught. Alves by TKO from strikes, third round.

Marcus Davis vs. Forrest Petz (-356) : Petz is 12-2 in MMA, Davis is 8-3. Davis lost to Melvin Guillard in his only UFC visit, in the Ultimate Fighter 2 finale in November 2005. He was on TUF2, where he lost early on to Joe Stevenson. Petz won his only UFC visit, a UD over Sam Morgan at UFC Fight Night 6 in August of this year. This line seems a little out of whack to me: Petz should be favored, but I don't see it being this large. Davis is a strong striker and certainly has a puncher's chance here, but Petz is far far better on the ground, and this fight will hit the ground unless Petz gets caught shooting. Petz with a first round TKO, strikes from the mount.

Actual poker content

Crazy, I know.

This was actually my first night playing online since I got back from Vegas the week after the WSOP. Lots of things going on, and just not making time to play.

Swung right back in to the thick of things, playing in the Poker Stars 23:00 ET $109 with 281 entrants ($28k+ prize pool) and the 6-max $109 $25k Guaranteed on Tilt with 283 entries starting at the same time. Plus a pair of $55 SNGs for good measure for four-table goodness.

Good night of results all around for my first night back in a month: second in one of the SNGs, then final five tables of the Full Tilt $25k Guaranteed with a finish in 39th place there. Then finally made the final two tables of the Stars $109 MTT, finishing in 17th place.

Not a huge night of payoffs, as the Stars 20% structure is pretty flat and top-loaded, but great results for being my first night back and almost hitting not one but two good-sized final tables. I was even chiplead for a good portion of the Stars towards the end, but lost a couple hands for about 1/4th my chips each time, calling short-stack all-ins and being ahead preflop but not able to hold (i.e. AJ < Q4, etc). Ran really well in the middle and last 1/3 of the tourney but then ran really cold once we hit about four tables and just sank like a stone through the field. Let myself get too shortstacked in the end, probably should have Gambooled it up sooner, but had a really aggressive table with several good "known" players and just couldn't get the combination of a hand and an opportunity.

Big thanks to Rizen for sweating me down from four tables and doing his part to call for some cards in chat when I needed them. :)

Performify's Pigskin Picks: Week Five (regular edition)

As with last week, I posted an Early Edition of picks this week, recommended two different plays. Unlike last week though, I didn't get a blow from a major injury (SA) which negatively affected the early picks: in fact one line moved as predicted, the other has stayed put all week. So unlike last week, the early grab didn't hurt and actually helped. On to the picks for the week. As always, graduated units, so cut these in half if you're not on this type of system (i.e. 2.5u, 1.5u, .5u for the three plays, 1u on the teaser).

Last Week: 1-4 on picks -8.63 units. 0-1 on Teaser -4 units. Total -12.63 units
YTD RESULTS: 9-5-1 on posted picks, +7.76 units (excludes teasers)

Chiefs -3 (-125) vs Cardinals 5u (from the early edition)
I had a bunch more written up on the KC game, and blogger lost it, and I'm never going to be able to rewrite it as well, so forgive if this writeup is subpar.

The Cards defense is one of the worst in the leage, giving up 375 yards per game this year and rank second to last in the NFC. The Chiefs' defense is allowing only 239 yards per game, third best in the NFL. Huard has demonstrated an ability to lead games adequately. The Cardinals have been porous on the ground, giving up an average of 144 on the ground each game, and were really exposed by Atlanta last week, giving up over 250 yards rushing to the league's #1 rushing attack. Don't expect quite that much from LJ in this game, but "King Pink" should in fact close in on 200 yards and a couple of scores.

While I do expect the Cards to play much better this week than last, a rookie QB, no matter how polished in college, isn't going to save the Cardinals season. They have too porous an offensive line, especially for a defense as strong as the Chiefs has proven to be. With two top corners and a strong rush d, the Chiefs will force mistakes and will probably add a defensive score this week, or at least a couple big turnovers. Chiefs 35, Cardinals 10. Game of the week, five units. If you're coming in late, go ahead and move the line back down to -3 and pay the extra juice to do so. Drop to a four unit play if you're paying over -135.

Eagles -2.5 (-106) vs Cowboys 3u (from the early edition, adding a unit)
This game obviously had been all over the media all week, with the return of OD, I mean TO to Philly. The TO factor isn't the most important thing to watch here, though. Its the health of the Philly backfield, and defensive backs. First, the backfield: Brian Westbrook did NOT practice on Friday, which makes three straight days this week he didn't practice. he's still facing swelling in his knee. He remains questionable, which means he's 50-50 to play at this point. He will be a gametime decision. If Westbrook does not play, this play loses value, but not a tremendous amount. After all, Correll Buckhalter has 121 yards on 30 carries this year. He pushed his way in to the doghouse last week with two goalline fumbles, but he's a capable second-string back and its not an automatic "game over man, game over" if Westbrook doesn't play. However I may consider a teaser on Dallas to hedge my early position (probably teasing with either the Panthers, Chicago or the Pats) if West is a no-go. I'll re-evaluate that on Saturday and again on Sunday morning when we have the latest news.

In the defensive backfield, the Eagles get a major boost with the return of standout Eagles CB Lito Sheppard. A source close to this blog actually had the opportunity to speak with Lito Sheppard this week, and has confirmed that he's definitely ready to go. This will be his first game back since November 2, 2005, from an ankle injury. Lito is a tall physical corner who will be a big boon to covering TO underneath. With this bump to their banged-up secondary, Philly will be able to blitz more, which always causes problems for the immoble Drew Bledsoe. The last time Bledsoe was under intense pressure most of the game was in a Week 1 loss at Jacksonville, where he threw three interceptions and completed less than 50% percent of his passes.

Last week Dallas rushed for 217 yards. They're not going to find the same running room in the friendly confines of Philly. When the Eagles have the ball, they should find McNabb with plenty of space to throw: Dallas traditionally doesn't do a lot of blitzing from nickle packages, and they're going to have to go to nickle to try to slow down this Eagles aerial attack. Dallas also starts a rookie in their secondary, free safety Pat Watkins from FLorida State. While he's a solid part of Dallas' zone coverage schemes, Watkins isn't quick and isn't a great tackler. Expect to see Reggie Brown - or Stallworth if he plays - going deep against Watkins most of the game. Philly 28, Dallas 17. Two unit play.

Saints -6.5 (-108) vs Buccaneers 1u
Thanks to Chris Simms' spleen exploding, the Bucs are forced to turn over the reigns to rookie QB Bruce Gradkowski. Look for Saints defensive coordinator Gary Gibbs to load up against the run with multiple eight-man fronts. Look for non-standard blitz and stunt packages to further confuse the rookie QB. The Bucs have struggled all season to generate yardage on the ground with RB Cadillac Williams, and its not going to get any better against the Saints. In addition to loading the line putting eight in the box, the Saints have the ## rush defense. While Gradkowski looked like a stud in the preseason, its going to be a whole different world faced with advanced defensive schemes (everyone plays base defensive schemes in the preseason, for the most part) and especially so when the offense is forced to be one-dimensional. The Bucs have already struggled protecting the QB, and with a rookie under center they're going to struggle even worse as he adjusts. And its even worse with RT Kenyatta Walker lost for the season: the Bucs will be starting another rookie, Jeremy Trueblood, who will be forced to defend hot Saints DE Charles Grant. When the Saints have the ball, they should be able to pick apart the underperforming Bucs defense. Expect both Deuce and Bush to have big days against a Buccaneers defense that is allowing 170.0 yards per game. The Bucs attack the gaps up front and force runs to the outside - look for Bush to finally break a big run outside and show off his big-play skills. This is a must-win game for Tampa, but with a rookie QB they're not going to be able to get it done. Saints 21, Bucs 10.

Jets +7 -115 at Jaguars 1u (Bodog) Jacksonville is missing both defensive ends, Marcus Stroud and Marcellus Wiley. Reggie Hayward is still out for the year. That means the Jags will be starting one out of the four defensive linemen they expected to feature when this season started, and should go a long way to explaining why Jacksonville has been getting very little pressure on opposing quarterbacks this year (and why their defense has been a general disappointment overall). The Jags will start Paul Spicer and Bobby McCray at the ends and John Henderson and Rob Meier at tackles, and they only have rookies as backups if anything happens to these guys.

The Jets are in the bottom of rush defenses in the league, but Jacksonville has managed only 67 yards on the ground in the last six quarters. While they will be able to run against the Jets - after all they are allowing 140.5 yards rushing per game - Jacksonville is still not clicking with their running game. Jacksonville star wide receiver Matt Jones is out for the game, giving them very little depth at wide receiver.

Most people have probably heard how good a season Pennington is having, but here are the numbers: In four games, Pennington has a 102.2 quarterback rating, with a 67% percent completion rate, six touchdowns, only two interceptions and just over a thousand yards passing. He's facing a Jags defense that is surprisingly ranked #23 in the NFL against the pass, having given up an average of 225 yards per game through the air. Pennington isn't necessarily going to tear the Jags apart, but with their holes at defensive line and corresponding inability to regularly apply pressure to opposing QBs, with their shaky defense against the pass so far, the high-powered Jets passing attack should be able to get some work done. The Jets are also going to give RB Leon Washington more touches this week, and he's shown some flashes of brilliance so far. Portis ran for 152 yards against the Jags last week, and while the Jets certainly don't have anyone resembling Portis, they should have some success on the ground to give them balance.

Seven points is going to be a lot in this game, and I think its going to be more than the Jags can handle with their struggles on offense and their many holes at defense. The way the Jets are playing this could easily be a ugly backdoor cover. 24-21 Jags for the Jets cover.

Tease of the Week: Patriots -3, Bears -3 (2 team, 7 point @ -120 @ Mansion)
The Bears and Pats lines are a little high this week, in my opinion. Both of these games have a greater probabilty of being closer than expected. This teaser has a good deal of value. Worth a two-unit play.

Summary of plays:

Kansas City -3 -125 : 6.25u to win 5u

Philly -2.5 -106 : 3.18u to win 3u

New Orleans -6.5 -108 : 1.08u to win 1u

New York Jets +7 -115 : 1.15u to win 1u

Tease: New England -3, Chicago -3: 2.4u to win 2u

STACKED™ with Daniel Negreanu launches on the PSP

The version of Negreanu's popular Texas Hold'em video game STACKED launched on PSP yesterday. We previously reviewed the PS2 copy, but we've also got a copy of the PSP version on the way and we'll let you know what we think of that as soon as we can. The portable version holds a lot of attraction for me, as I can think of a lot of times when I'm commuting or whatever when I'd like to be playing poker instead of doing whatever I'm doing... bless you portable gaming device, bless you. With all the latest hubub about the ridiculous Internet Gambling law tacked on to the Port Security bill by our unscrupulous "representatives", maybe video game versions of poker will be all we've got left... (hit the 2+2 legislation forum for all you could want to know on the bill, by the way). Anyways, here's the official press release on the PSP version. Again, we'll have a full writeup once we get the PSP version and can have some fun with it: Texas Hold ‘Em Game Deals Sophisticated AI and Persistent Gameplay Experience New York, NY – October 3rd, 2006 – Myelin Media LLC, a publisher of interactive entertainment software, today announced that STACKED™ with Daniel Negreanu[1] has officially launched on the PSP® (PlayStation®Portable) system. The premiere Texas Hold ‘Em video game developed by 3G Studios, STACKED utilizes a highly acclaimed artificial intelligence (AI) system that devises new strategies for victory as it learns more about each player’s individual style of play. As a player progresses through the game, the AI will become more advanced as it builds a profile of weaknesses and attempts to exploit them. Rated T for Teen by the ESRB, STACKED for the PSP system is available for purchase at leading retailers including Best Buy, EB Games and GameStop, and carries a suggested retail price of $19.99.

STACKED PSP Features:

Exclusively licensed Artificial Intelligence system that adapts to your playing style in real-time, developed from over ten years of university research in game theory, machine learning, and opponent modeling.

Daniel Negreanu's Poker School provides the player with expert instruction on all aspects of Hold 'em, through full-motion video, voiceovers, and scripted in-game sequences.

Accurately modeled 3D environments and characters based on real casinos and licensed professionals.

Professional broadcast design recreates the spectacle and drama of televised poker.

“STACKED continues to push the boundaries of video game technology with an advanced artificial intelligence system that actually adapts to your style of play,” said Ken Woo, producer at Myelin Media. “Whether you’re a novice or professional, STACKED offers a sophisticated poker experience that is second to none on the PSP system. The added advantage is the titles’ affordable price point, which makes it immediately accessible for gamers of all ages.”

Advancing through the game’s career mode, players will encounter seven of poker’s most decorated pro players: Josh Arieh, Jennifer Harman, Erick Lindgren, Juan Carlos Mortensen, Evelyn Ng, David Williams and Daniel Negreanu himself, each with a custom AI bot that matches their real-world play style. Players can choose to compete against the Poki AI system in the game’s challenging single player mode, or access nearly an hour of video tips and strategies from Daniel Negreanu, which cover all aspects of the game from basic rules to advanced strategies for tournament success.

For more information about STACKED with Daniel Negreanu, please visit stacked.mtv.com.

Performify's Pigskin Picks: Week Five, early edition

Well the Early Edition picks didn't work out so well last week, but they're back this week. Good news is after the early success and last week's regression to the mean we can get back on the horse and expect more normal results.

I have two early lines that I expect to move and are worth recommending at this time.

Kansas City -3 -125 : five units, preliminary game of the week, and should present a nice middle/arbitrage opportunity if not
Philly -2.5 -106 : two units, strong play

I grabbed Philly tonight at the above price. I grabbed KC on monday night at a better line, but wasn't going to post as a formal pick until i had fully handicapped the game as my early attempts at predicting obviously weren't super last week.

But based on the trend in both of these lines, I'm again recommending early land grabs.

As usual, I'll be back with full handicapping and analysis.

Last Week: 1-4 on picks -8.63 units. 0-1 on Teaser -4 units. Total -12.63 units
YTD RESULTS: 9-5-1 on posted picks, +7.76 units (excludes teasers)
1-2-1 on Game of the Week, -4.8 units. 1-1 on Tease of the Week, -2 units
Year to date combined on all posted NFL picks (includes teasers): +5.76 units