Performify's Pigskin Picks: Week 4 (Regular Edition)

I posted an Early Edition of picks this week recommending people grab two plays. This is to follow up on that early edition with the usual round of full analysis and picks.

Last week: 2-0-1 with a push on Game of the Week. +4 units
YTD RESULTS: 8-1-1 on picks, +16.39 units (excludes teasers)
1-1-1 on Game of the Week, +0.2 units. 1-0 on Tease of the Week, +2 units
Year to date combined on all posted NFL picks: +18.39 units

I feel the need to disclaim right now: I lost my first game, and have gone 8-0 on picks since. This will not continue. I hope to continue to post a winning record every week, of course, but the odds of going undefeated for even two weeks in a row is pretty astronomical let alone three, four, etc. So while we've been good so far, stay patient and don't load up on these picks just because i've delivered two good weeks to open the season. Maintain your adequate bankroll management at all times. Past performance not a guarantee of future results. Not FDIC insured, may lose value. yadda yadda.

Chargers -2.5 +109 over Baltimore (note: currently available at -2.5 +103)
As recommended in the early edition, this is the game of the week. While I expected previously that the line would shift pretty massively, it only ended up moving about 9c and has moved back today to be shifted 6c lower. So we still got better value by placing early, but not as much as I expected. But I think, in this case, its actually a good thing: there are quite a few people that think this line is WAY off in the other direction, that Baltimore is the play here. Those people are wrong, for the reasons i'll detail below: and that's actually keeping this line balanced and helping me believe that this isn't a "trap" line after all...

This game isn't about the Chargers being good, as much as it is about the Ravens being bad. Really bad. So much worse than people are giving them credit for. I've heard playoff talks about this team, i've heard even "sleeper Superbowl pick" talk. That's absolutely crazy. I guess those people haven't seen the Raven's last two games, but just are looking at the win/loss column.

Let me give you a little detailed rundown on the Raven's season to date:

Week One: the Ravens beat the Bucs 27-0. We've since seen that the Bucs are one of the worst teams in the league, on both offense and surprisingly on defense. So this game doesn't tell us much, except that the Ravens are better than a terrible team. The Ravens score a defensive touchdown (INT return) and return a fumble to the five yard line, so two of these touchdowns come off the board and you're left with 13 offensive points against the Bucs. Not bad, but not good either.

Lets skip ahead to Week Three: Baltimore gave up 300 passing yards - and two touchdowns - to the Browns last week. The Cleveland Browns. And barely won that game, after trailing the entire way. Browns led 14-3 at half and carried that score over to the start of the fourth quarter. That's right. The Ravens, the team people are saying can beat the Chargers, were down to the Browns 14-3 for three quarters last week. For much of the third quarter, however, the Ravens did put together a 7 play, 68 yards in the last 3:30 of the third, which resulted in scoring their only TD in the game on the first play of the fourth quarter. The Ravens then put together a ten-play drive midway through the 4th to hit a 42-yard field goal to pull to 14-12. The Browns respond by driving the length of the field to almost put the game away. Browns have the ball second and goal from the Baltimore four yard line, when Browns QB gets blindsided as he's throwing and the Ravens get an INT. They then manage to sneak in to field goal range, kicking a 52-yard field goal with just a few seconds left to sneak out a win 15-14. OK fine, most people know about last week. But what about week two?

Most people look at the final of Baltimore 28, Oakland 6 in Week Two and don't see what really happened. Gotta love DirecTV and their NFL Shortcuts for the ability to watch every game, every week...

In the first quarter, the Ravens put together three scoring "drives": eight plays, 25 yards total gained, 25-yard field goal kicked. 5 plays, 20 yards gained, 33-yard field goal kicked. 7 plays, 11 yards gained, 37-yard field goal. Score 9-0 Ravens in the end of the first. None of these drives would have likely resulted in points otherwise, they were all field position scores thanks to starting in great field position due to turnovers, including two Aaron Brooks fumbles on the exchange from center. These weren't even created by the defense, just the regular Oakland inneptitude.

Second quarter, Oakland puts together a 13 play 64-yard drive and hit a field goal, their first points of the season. 9-3 Oakland. Ravens respond with a two minute drill, 7 plays going 65-yards, scoring their only first-string touchdown of the game. 16-3 Ravens at the half.

Ravens get a safety in the third quarter, 18-3. Only score of the third quarter.

Fourth quarter, Ravens get another Oakland turnover, a fumble that's returned 50-some yards, put together a massive 7 play, 11-yard drive and kick another field goal. 21-3 Ravens. Later McNair throws an Int, the Raiders run a couple plays and Seabass kicks a 51 yard field goal to make it 21-6. Then as the Ravens are running out the clock in the end of the fourth quarter (inside of three minutes left), Mike Anderson breaks a 34-yard run for a touchdown to make it 28-6.
Baltimore played an absolutely terrible game start to finish, with only one real drive and one mediocre drive when the game was in hand. And this isn't against a decent team, this is against what is hands down the worst team in the league, with their starting QB knocked out in the first quarter and the backup thrust in to play. And he did a stellar job: Walter fumbled three times, losing one, suffered three interceptions and completed 10 of 27 passes for 162 yards.

Ok, so all that said (sorry for the rant). Why am I so heavy on the Chargers here? Simply put, the Ravens are tremendously overrated for the reasons I've detailed above. McNair is tremendously overrated as a QB. He makes terrible decisions and terrible throws. If the Ravens hadn't pulled out the comeback last week, and had the Oakland game ended 10-0 like the game really reflected, you'd see this line as Chargers -7 or so. Which is where i'd hang it. But Chargers -2.5 is just crazy. And so: Game of the Week, without question.

Enough on the past: how does this game play out? The Chargers roll in to town with a top defense AND the top offense, and a week's rest. You also have Ravens LB / end Terrell Suggs banged up (hamstring) from the last game, a key playmaker, along with a key offensive option Todd Heap playing through pain (ankle). Compared to a rested, fresh, injury-free Chargers team. While the Ravens are off to a strong 3-0 start, I strongly expect they get absolutely steamrolled by the Chargers here in week four.

The Chargers will score early, maybe even twice, and take out the home field advantage, the crowd, and the Baltimore morale. The Ravens offense is going to come out and struggle tremendously. San Diego sports the consistent top rush defense (they were #1 against the run last year too, and haven't been lower than #3 against the rush in the last three years) and they'll be able to shut down J-Lew with only their front seven, which gives them an advantage in the secondary compared to the Ravens who will keep at least one safety close to the line of scrimmage to have a prayer of keeping LT from a two TD day. With the Ravens offense forced to be one-dimensional, they'll be very easy to counter. The Ravens have depended on third down this year to make a lot of their plays, and the Chargers sport the best 3rd down defense in the NFL right now, again thanks to their strong front set which lets them drop four or five in coverage and still get a strong presence at the LOS. So while LT won't have a monster day, he'll top 150 combined yards and score at least once. Rivers will do enough to keep the game in hand: the line knows that Baltimore is going to bring the heat, so look for lots of short quick passes to LT, to Gates. This game isn't going to be all San Diego though - with both strong defenses out there, you're going to see a pretty close game all the way I think. The Chargers probably get the first score or two on the board, but we're going to see several field goals and the game's never really going to be in hand: I really doubt we see the Chargers up three or four TDs. Look for several field goals from each team. Chargers are minus starting SS Terrence Kiel, but they've got a strong backup safety in fourth year player Clinton Hart, who played in all 16 Chargers games last year, starting in five of them. Yes, he's a step down, but its not like he's an untested rookie.

This is a Ravens team that hasn't beaten anyone, and has looked absolutely terrible in two of their three wins against some of the worst teams in the NFL. Yeah, San Diego hasn't beaten anyone yet either, but they've looked tremendous doing it - the Chargers have won their two games by a combined score of 67-7, and that's a huge difference: a team that demonstrates a powerful explosive offense versus a team that's barely managed to win two games against the bottom of the barrel. Chargers 23, Ravens 13. Game of the Week.

One more thing about this game, well more about the future: regarding the Ravens being strongly overrated right now. I'm hearing playoff talks, even talks of postseason success, just because they opened with wins over three cake opponents? The Ravens have a terrible schedule coming up. They face the Chargers this week, then go to Denver, then play the Panthers, at the Saints, and then Cincy. I expect the Ravens drop at least three of these games (Chargers, Panthers, Cincy) and possibly a fourth (at Denver or at New Orleans) and possibly even all five if the Saints stay hot and Denver can turn things around. The Ravens then get a scheduled softball with the Titans, but then play Atlanta, Pitt, @ Cincy, @ KC (who should have Green back by then, or should have Huard acclimated to starting). That's a brutal schedule. I have the Ravens ending the season at 8-8 from this point, and maybe even 7-9 if they drop one they shouldn't, despite their 3-0 start.

49ers +7 (-104) at Kansas City
Yes, Arrowhead is a very tough place to play. But the 49ers have done a tremendous job of keeping games close this year - they've lost to Arizona and St. Louis by a touchdown, and by two TDs to a strong Eagles team. The Chiefs have been struggling at tackle all year, and are now down yet another offensive lineman as Kyle Turley won't play this week and will be replaced by the very mediocre Jordan Black at tackle, compounding the Chiefs woes. The 49ers have strong outside pass rush with outside linebackers Manny Lawson and Brandon Moore off the edges, not to mention standout end Bryant Young. While I do think Kansas City wins this game, I think the 49ers can do enough to keep this close and might even steal the game in an upset if their offense is clicking, if they can create a turnover or two with the pressure they should be able to apply to Chiefs backup QB Huard, and if Frank Gore's ribs are healed enough to carry the offense for another week. 17-14 Kansas City for the SanFran cover. I also can't argue if you want to move this game to -7.5 (currently -122 at Pinny) but I'm going to take just the seven as I think this game gets decided by three or four most of the time. Three unit play. I'm also going to recommend half a unit on the SanFran money line at +278 (.5 unit to win 1.39 units) as I think there's a good chance SanFran wins this game outright if a couple factors line up.

Bengals -5.5 (-101) vs Patriots
I'm surprised that this line hasn't moved tremendously against us. I noted it as a possible play early in the week when it opened at -5.5 and expected it to move across six and I'd re-evaluate later in the week. The fact that the line hasn't moved despite the game seeming like a tremendous mismatch scares me some, which is why this is only a one unit play. This game is a huge Wagerline consensus pick on the Bengals, 72.2% picking against the Pats. But I'm going to be another of the sheep here: the Bengals offense looks way to strong in every aspect, the Patriots haven't looked sharp all season. The Bengals should be able to run the ball well, we'll hear the crowd chanting "Rudi... Rudi... Rudi" much of the day. The Bengals will also utilize the spread no-huddle they've shown in the past weeks to keep the Pats off-balance, and to put up points quick. The Pats had coverage breakdowns vs. the Broncos last week, and Cincinnati has a far more potent passing attack, so I'm expecting Palmer to put up some big numbers as well. 28-10 Bengals in a blowout, but only one unit because I'm worried there's something I'm missing with the public so one-sided here.

Atlanta -7 (-118) vs Cardinals
Last week, Atlanta got worked by an emotional team and looked off-kilter. Fortunately for them they get a mediocre Cardinals defense to rebound against. Short-week teams can sometimes be trouble, but when you've got a team that's as strong rushing the ball as the Falcons, you don't have to worry much. Atlanta pounds the ball on the ground, running a lot of clock. The Cardinals are very aggressive on defense, and if they don't keep their ends at home they're going to get smoked by Vick a couple times on that nifty shotgun option that the Falcons are using to great success. Atlanta loads the box on defense to shut down the run, and gets pressure on Warner with their very quick front seven. Lower scoring than many fantasy players will hope as the clock ticks away due to the Falcons rushing so much. Worth moving the line to -7 from -7.5 as the juice is pretty low already. Falcons 21, Cardinals 13, one unit.

Tease of the Week: Atlanta -1.5, Seattle +8.5 : four units
I feel Seattle is being undervalued and asking a tough Bears team to beat them by more than a TD is a lot. Likewise Atlanta is undervalued here - while there's a possibilty of a large injury tomorrow changing this value, there's also chance of a value shift if they blow out the Saints on MNF.

I like both of these games quite a bit, but especially so in the Wong teaser across the 7 and 3. Big play, four units in my system. Normally a teaser gets two at max, but my system absolutely loves these games with these spreads, and especially so given that they were both Wong Teasers (teasers that cross the critical numbers of 3 and 7) when I recommended the play.

I recommended this play early in the week, while the line was Seattle +2.5. When the line moved to Seattle +3.5 with the news of Shaun Alexander getting struck down by the "How Does it Feel?" Madden Curse, we lost this as a Wong teaser (we lose +EV from the tease as we're no longer crossing the critical number of +3). If you want to play along, i think the game is worth a single unit at the current line (which would be Seattle +9.5) but note that your tease is not nearly as +EV at that point.

if you did grab this big tease early and now want to offload your action, I can't argue with that. I'd recommend watching the Atlanta game since its early, and assuming they cover the -1.5 for the tease, you can then lay off the open portion of the teaser given that the Seattle game is the Sunday night game. I'd recommend taking Chicago -3.5 for a nice middle : right now its Chicago -3.5 +106, so you could place four units on Chicago -3.5 to win 4.24 units, with the following scenario: Chicago wins by more than our tease (9 or more if you grabbed early): lose 4 units on the teaser, win 4.24 units on the spread bet, profit .24 units. If Chicago loses outright or wins by three or less points, you lose the spread bet and win the teaser to break even. And if Chicago wins by 4,5,6,7 or 8 points, you'd hit a very juicy middle and win 4 units on the teaser, 4.24 units on the spread bet, for a win of 8.24 units. But as I said, wait until the Atlanta game completes if you do want to hedge.

Summary of Picks:

Chargers -2.5 +109 : 5 units to win 5.45 units

49ers +7 (-104) : 3.12 units to win 3 units

49ers to win +278 : .5 unit to win 1.39 units

Bengals -5.5 (-101) : 1.01 units to win 1 unit

Atlanta -7 (-118) : 1.18 units to win 1 unit

Teaser: Atlanta -1.5, Seattle +8.5: 4 units to win 4 units

Also, I'm taking a known -EV flier this week. I like to do stuff like this when i'm running good, i consider it one of my ways of giving back to some of the squarer books where I tend to just pick at their softer lines, to ensure that my limits don't get cut. This will NOT count in my plays for the week, but I'm going to post it in case anyone wants to come along. But if you do, you CANNOT hedge the monday game. If you're going to consider hedging, leave it out and just play the six-team tease. I actually think its a pretty strong play in most cases. San Diego is included just because I'm so strong on the game already in handicapping, despite the teaser itself having almost zero value moving from -3 to +3. Remember, this play is -EV in itself, even if it wins. I look at it as a tip for the house, but one where I might just hit a payday if the stars align :)

7 Team Teaser: 1 unit to win 10 units (10:1)
Indianapolis Colts -3 Sun@1:00p
San Diego Chargers +3 Sun@1:00p
Carolina Panthers -1½ Sun@1:00p
Atlanta Falcons -1½ Sun@1:00p
Cincinnati Bengals -½ Sun@4:15p
Seattle Seahawks +9½ Sun@8:15p
Philadelphia Eagles -5 Mon@8:30p

Performify's Pigskin Picks: Week Four (Early Edition)

There's a pair of plays I love for Week Four, and wanted to post now, as i think its not going to be around all week.

Remaining picks will be posted as normal sometime between now and the normal time, but for now: Chargers -2.5 +109 over Baltimore: five units, preliminary Game of the Week

This line looks way off to me on early glance. With the way Baltimore looked today - they let the Browns score twice against them, Browns led 14-3 at half, they're being overvalued for their second half play. Rested Chargers team puts this away easily by a field goal. Dropping three units now as a value play and expecting to wake up with this line over -3 tomorrow.

Tease of the Week (Week Four): Atlanta -1.5, Seattle +8.5 : four units

I feel Seattle is being undervalued and asking a tough Bears team to beat them by more than a TD is a lot. Likewise Atlanta is undervalued here - while there's a possibilty of a large injury tomorrow changing this value, there's also chance of a value shift if they blow out the Saints on MNF.

I like both of these games quite a bit, but especially so in the Wong teaser across the 7 and 3. Big play, four units in my system.

Performify's Pigskin Picks: Week 3

I'm not a big fan of many games this week. I liked the Falcons when they opened at -3 but for some reason felt that line was going to stick around, and I neglected to grab it. The line has since moved to -3.5 with some serious juice and is close to moving to -4 from the looks of it. I like the game, but not enough to warrant a full unit play. On to the picks for this week:

Last week: 3-0 on the week, Win on Game of the Week, Win on Tease of the Week. +11.86 units overall including the (Wong) teaser.

YTD RESULTS: 6-1 on picks, +12.39 units (excludes teasers)
1-1 on Game of the Week, +0.2 units. 1-0 on Tease of the Week, +2 units
Year to date combined on all posted NFL picks: +14.39 units

Bears -3 (-132) at Vikings
I'm breaking a couple cardinal rules of traditional sports betting. I'm taking a road favorite, I'm moving the line on to a key number and paying a load of juice to do it, and i'm going with an offense that's been hot early but hasn't yet proven itself to be "for real". And I'm doing it in good conscience. Because this matchup is just too good to pass up.

The Vikings are playing pretty well to start 2-0, but they're facing too tough a test in Chicago's defense for this game to go any other way. Both teams have similar offenses led by quarterbacks that traditionally aren't asked to win games but to manage them well. Both teams sport a cover-two defense. But that's where the similarities end. Facing a Chicago D that got racked up six sacks last week, the immobile Brad Johnson will spend a lot of the day looking up from his back. Minnesota RB Chester Taylor is a straight-ahead runner, so he'll be spending most of Sunday night running straight ahead in to the best middle linebacker in the business, Brian Urlacher. Not to mention, the Vikings couldn't find the endzone last week against a much less talented Carolina defense, and I don't expect them to have any more offensive success against a superior Chicago D. The Vikings also have numerous injuries, including two of their top wide receivers Troy Williamson (shoulder, probable) and Marcus Robinson (hammy, questionable).

The Vikings loss of defensive standout Erasmus James creates a significant hole in their defensive line which will take more than a week to patch. Minnesota is 17th in Rush Defense and that stat is going to drop further with one of their best players off the d-line. Look for Chicago to run the ball early and often, and for QB Rex Grossman to continue to exploit defenses who try to stack up to stop the run. Since the Vikes are running the copycat scheme of the Chicago D, they're not going to show the Bears offense anything they're not used to seeing. In the cover-2 the linebackers have a lot of responsibilities, and look for Chicago to exploit them with short passes to tight end Desmond Clark and short passes to the backs. This is a definite edge to the Chicago offense.

I know this is a popular play for the public, and I know that I'm breaking a couple major rules here. But I feel strongly about moving this game to 3, as I handicap this as an overly high probility of landing on that three point victory if things don't go exactly as planned. 24-13 Chicago after a meaningless Vikings fourth quarter TD with the second string. Game of the Week, four unit play to counteract the additional juice (normally a five unit play)

Jets +7 (-135) at Bills (moving the line on Pinny)
Another case of "this team (in this case the Bills) isn't good enough to be a seven point favorite over anyone". I am, so far, a believer in Pennington's rebuilt arm and the rebirth of the Jets offensive passing attack. Buffalo has a young secondary and while they've looked good against the pass so far, I expect Pennington's receiving crew of Coles and Cotchery to post some big numbers against the Bills' two rookie safeties (SS Donte Whitner and FS Ko Simpson). Bills face their third consecutive defense coached by Belichick / Belichick protégés. Losman is again a weak link and they're just not going to put up enough on the ground with McGahee to overcome (1) Losman and (2) the way the Jets pass offense is clicking. Again moving the line and paying some rough juice to do so, but for good reason: again I have a strong reason to cover this extra critical number in this expected low-scoring matchup. 21-17 Jets for the outright win. 3 unit play

Packers +7 (-108) at Lions
The Packers and Lions combined for 49 points in their two meetings last season: 16-13 and 17-3. Getting seven points in a game with offenses this innept on both sides of the ball is a lot. While I expect both sides to perform poorly - Favre especially has traditionally performed poorly against the Lions Cover 2 - I don't think the Lions are good enough to cover a touchdown even against the struggling Packers. Favre showed flashes of brilliance in week two, and Ahman Green looked like he was still running in Lincoln Nebraska in week one, and if the Pack can put flashes of those two performances in the same week they could look like a real, balanced football team for the first time this season. The Lions will also be juggling their linebacking corps due to a knee injury to starting linebacker Alex Lewis. As mentioned previously, the coverage responsibilities of the linebackers in a cover-two defense are critical in the passing game, and with a starting linebacker out look for Favre to dump the ball off short to Ahman Green and his tight ends often. 20-17 Lions for the Packers cover. One unit play.

BYE (-10.5) over Raiders
The Raiders suffer another letdown this week, losing a hardfought battle with their bye week to drop to 0-3 to oppen the season.

Picks summary:

Chicago -3 (-132): 5.28 units to win 4 units

Jets +7 (-135) : 4.05 units to win 3 units

Packers +7 (-108): 1.08 units to win 1 unit

Performify's Pigskin Picks: Week 3

I'm not a big fan of many games this week. I liked the Falcons when they opened at -3 but for some reason felt that line was going to stick around, and I neglected to grab it. The line has since moved to -3.5 with some serious juice and is close to moving to -4 from the looks of it. I like the game, but not enough to warrant a full unit play. On to the picks for this week:

Last week: 3-0 on the week, Win on Game of the Week, Win on Tease of the Week. +11.86 units overall including the (Wong) teaser.

YTD RESULTS: 6-1 on picks, +12.39 units (excludes teasers)
1-1 on Game of the Week, +0.2 units.
1-0 on Tease of the Week, +2 units
Year to date combined on all posted NFL picks: +14.39 units

Bears -3 (-132) at Vikings
I'm breaking a couple cardinal rules of traditional sports betting. I'm taking a road favorite, I'm moving the line on to a key number and paying a load of juice to do it, and i'm going with an offense that's been hot early but hasn't yet proven itself to be "for real". And I'm doing it in good conscience. Because this matchup is just too good to pass up.

The Vikings are playing pretty well to start 2-0, but they're facing too tough a test in Chicago's defense for this game to go any other way. Both teams have similar offenses led by quarterbacks that traditionally aren't asked to win games but to manage them well. Both teams sport a cover-two defense. But that's where the similarities end. Facing a Chicago D that got racked up six sacks last week, the immobile Brad Johnson will spend a lot of the day looking up from his back. Minnesota RB Chester Taylor is a straight-ahead runner, so he'll be spending most of Sunday night running straight ahead in to the best middle linebacker in the business, Brian Urlacher. Not to mention, the Vikings couldn't find the endzone last week against a much less talented Carolina defense, and I don't expect them to have any more offensive success against a superior Chicago D. The Vikings also have numerous injuries, including two of their top wide receivers Troy Williamson (shoulder, probable) and Marcus Robinson (hammy, questionable).

The Vikings loss of defensive standout Erasmus James creates a significant hole in their defensive line which will take more than a week to patch. Minnesota is 17th in Rush Defense and that stat is going to drop further with one of their best players off the d-line. Look for Chicago to run the ball early and often, and for QB Rex Grossman to continue to exploit defenses who try to stack up to stop the run. Since the Vikes are running the copycat scheme of the Chicago D, they're not going to show the Bears offense anything they're not used to seeing. In the cover-2 the linebackers have a lot of responsibilities, and look for Chicago to exploit them with short passes to tight end Desmond Clark and short passes to the backs. This is a definite edge to the Chicago offense.

I know this is a popular play for the public, and I know that I'm breaking a couple major rules here. But I feel strongly about moving this game to 3, as I handicap this as an overly high probility of landing on that three point victory if things don't go exactly as planned. 24-13 Chicago after a meaningless Vikings fourth quarter TD with the second string. Game of the Week, four unit play to counteract the additional juice (normally a five unit play)

Jets +7 (-135) at Bills (moving the line on Pinny)
Another case of "this team (in this case the Bills) isn't good enough to be a seven point favorite over anyone". I am, so far, a believer in Pennington's rebuilt arm and the rebirth of the Jets offensive passing attack. Buffalo has a young secondary and while they've looked good against the pass so far, I expect Pennington's receiving crew of Coles and Cotchery to post some big numbers against the Bills' two rookie safeties (SS Donte Whitner and FS Ko Simpson). Again moving the line and paying some rough juice to do so, but for good reason: again I have a strong reason to cover this extra critical number in this expected low-scoring matchup. 21-17 Jets for the outright win. 3 unit play

Packers +7 (-108) at Lions
The Packers and Lions combined for 49 points in their two meetings last season: 16-13 and 17-3. Getting seven points in a game with offenses this innept on both sides of the ball is a lot. While I expect both sides to perform poorly - Favre especially has traditionally performed poorly against the Lions Cover 2 - I don't think the Lions are good enough to cover a touchdown even against the struggling Packers. Favre showed flashes of brilliance in week two, and Ahman Green looked like he was still running in Lincoln Nebraska in week one, and if the Pack can put flashes of those two performances in the same week they could look like a real, balanced football team for the first time this season. The Lions will also be juggling their linebacking corps due to a knee injury to starting linebacker Alex Lewis. As mentioned previously, the coverage responsibilities of the linebackers in a cover-two defense are critical in the passing game, and with a starting linebacker out look for Favre to dump the ball off short to Ahman Green and his tight ends often. 20-17 Lions for the Packers cover. One unit play.

BYE (-10.5) over Raiders
The Raiders suffer another letdown this week, losing a hardfought battle with their bye week to drop to 0-3 to oppen the season.

Picks summary:

Chicago -3 (-132): 5.28 units to win 4 units

Jets +7 (-135) : 4.05 units to win 3 units

Packers +7 (-108): 1.08 units to win 1 unit

UFC 63 full card predictions

UFC 63 is my most anticipated UFC main event in a long, long time. While I love seeing Tito beat up on Shamrock, and the return of Royce Gracie to the octagon was hyped to stratospheric levels, UFC 63 brings one of the most anticipated title defenses in the history of the sport in my opinion: Matt Hughes defending his title in a five round war against the only man in recent history to beat him, The Prodigy B.J. Penn. I'm more excited about this fight than I have been for any fight in a long, long time.

Now the rest of the card? Not so much. In fact I haven't seen a card this one-sided in as long as I can remember. But with a massively one-sided card, we might see some good knockouts, I guess. On to the full card predictions per usual.

Past three UFC results: UFC 62: 1-0 +10 units) (only one pick: Forrest Griffin, 24.2 units to win 10 units, win), UFC 61: 4-4, +1.07 units. UFC 60: 6-3, +3.2671 units. Further results can be found by searching my site if you're interested.

As usual, all lines current as of posting:

B.J. Penn vs Matt Hughes
B.J. Penn +186
Matt Hughes -206

Let me start by disclaiming - if you follow my posted picks on the Two + Two Sports Betting Forum, I recommended to the forum that they grab as much Matt Hughes as possible when this line first opened. It opened at Hughes -105 which I correctly recognized as an off line for the way the money would flow for this fight. The line has obviously climbed tremenedously. I, as well as quite a few others following along, grabbed the maximum on Hughes at -105 and most again loaded up when they raised the maximums around Hughes -135. But I did that less as a pure "value bet" and more as an anticipated hedge. I knew the money would come in on Hughes, and I knew I'd be able to take Penn as a much larger underdog as a risk-free arbitrage closer to the fight. Well, the fight is here, and its time to handicap that arbitrage position.

There are two camps in MMA fans. There are those who think BJ Penn is quite possibly the most overhyped, overrated fighter in MMA history. That his first round defeat of Hughes was basically a lot of luck, and that he hasn't really done anything substaintial since. And then there are those that think a healthy BJ Penn is one of, if not the singular best best active fighter in MMA, pound for pound. I'll start this off saying: I'm in the later camp. I think BJ Penn is one of the best fighters in the game right now, and I think all those in the "Penn is overrated!" camp are going to understand the viewpoint of the "BJ Penn is teh awesome!" camp after Penn puts Hughes down for a second time this weekend.

So that said, lets break this down. I obviously think Penn matches up very well with Matt Hughes: all four of Hughes' losses (UFC 46 vs. BJ Penn in 2004, Pele Landi-Jons in 2001 and twice vs. Dennis Hallman, in UFC 29 in 2000 and in Extreme Challenge 21 in 1998) have come against great BJJ fighters, and especially so against fighters with strong jiu-jitsu who also have good striking. On the other side, Penn's victory over Hughes was Jan 2004, that was two years and nine months ago. Penn then went the distance with Rodrigo Gracie in Rumble on the Rock 6 in November 2004, winning a UD. Penn fought a very impressive 15 minutes with 205-pound Ryoto Machida in K1 in March 2005, losing a close UD to a much larger fighter. And if you got to see the fight - it was a lot of standup, with Penn easily trading with Machida on the feet and even getting the best of it time and time again. If you're just a UFC fan and not that familiar with K1, Machida is an absolute beast with an 8-0 and is the only person to knock out Rich Franklin (December 2003, Franklin's only loss). Penn then went the distance with Renzo Gracie in K1 in the end of July 2005, winning a UD. Penn then walked in to the UFC and demolished GSP for the first round, aggrivated a leg injury suffered during training, and went in to a shell for the last two rounds and lost a close decision that in my opinion was mis-scored.

If you're interested, here's a great fan-made highlight clip of some of BJ Penn's best work on YouTube. You can also watch the Penn vs Rodrigo Gracie fight from RumbleWorld.tv for free for a limited time (you have to sign up for a free account), and finally here is the entire Penn vs Machida fight.

I see Penn having a pretty significant advantage on the feet, and he certainly has the edge on the ground. Hughes will have the edge in takedowns and in strength. I see this fight as either a Hughes win by decision or a Penn submission. Unless it turns out that Penn's conditioning isn't where its reported to be at and he gasses early, or someone gets hurt.

There's no question that Penn's conditioning has been questioned since his fight with GSP. But those saying Penn gassed vs GSP are overlooking the reports that Penn was injured during the fight but didn't want to drop that as an excuse which is why you never heard it out of his mouth, only some of his training partners after the fight. But regardless, Penn reports in his hometown newspaper that he has been training harder for this fight than he has in quite some time.

"I'm in phenomenal shape," he explained. "For my last couple of fights, I had just been doing long-distance slow running. It really doesn't pay off in the ring. You need to be able to explode for five minutes and you've got to keep being able to explode. I just keep changing my training around. But you know -- even if people consider me the true champion -- if I had gone into the ring in the shape I was in for the (St. Pierre) fight, I would have gotten a rude awakening. I learned what I learned from the last fight how the judges are going to score the fight and all the different stuff that's going on. But Hughes is fighting Superman now. This fight is for me. It would be good to bring the belt back to the islands so Hilo can have a world champion."

I see Hughes coming out thinking he has the edge on the feet, trying to stand and strike. And quickly realizing he's getting the worst of it on the feet. Very similar to the Gracie fight - Hughes came out looking to strike on the feet and realized Gracie's long limbs allowed him to get the better of it with leg kicks on the feet, so he quickly changed it up and took Gracie down. Penn's striking is far superior to Hughes - Penn was able to go toe to toe with a 205-pound far superior striker to Hughes in Machida - and Hughes will get picked apart on the feet. So Hughes is forced to take Penn down, in which case he tries to put Penn against the fence and drop hammerfists and elbows. Standard gameplan. Except Penn is by far the most dangerous fighter from his back in the UFC, with the possible exception of Dean Lister. Hughes knows this, and isn't going to open up like crazy and expose himself. So its going to be a highly technical war on the ground, i think. And probably several restarts along the way.

So either Penn can pull out a submission along the way, or Hughes wins the decision due to the scoring of multiple takedowns along the way. Or there's always a possibility Penn KO's him on the feet, or a slight possiblity Hughes does the same thing to Penn. So as I mentioned earlier, I grabbed as much Hughes as I could when it opened at -105 and again around -135 when they raised the limits. I will be leveraging all of that to have a risk free shot on Penn, as I think the line is already off and expect it to climb further to the neighborhood of +250 Penn prefight.

I fully expect BJ Penn to win this fight. I then expect that they'll have Penn fight the winner of the Ultimate Fighter challenge while Hughes faces off with GSP, and after Hughes dominates GSP there, we'll have Penn / Hughes III. But then again, I'm still of the opinion that the Penn/GSP fight should have been a win for Penn and a draw at worst, given that the first round should have been scored 10-8. So its clear that #1 I'm high on Penn and #2 anything is possible when fights are left up to the UFC judges.

Its been a long time since Hughes faced any sort of real challenge in my opinion. GSP was clearly outmatched in their fight, he's come a long way since then. Hughes went the distance against Charuto Verissimo at UFC 48 after losing to Penn, and Verissimo is certainly not a top-tier fighter. The last time we saw Hughes challenged in a fight was UFC 42 in the war with Sean Sherk, in my opinion, and that was April 2003. There's no question in my mind. Hughes is a monster, he's one of the most dominant fighters that the UFC has ever seen. But he's not unbeatable, and I think Penn has all the tools necessary to take Hughes down again. Only question is, obviously, how is Penn's conditioning.

I think with the conditioning uncertainty I'd put Penn about 40%, 45% as I said, corresponding to a +150 to +122, I think if Penn's conditioning was a certainty, if he's optimal shape, I'd say Penn would, in reality easily be a 55% favorite over Hughes. But of course no book would need to hang that line, as -105 on Hughes would be more than sufficient to ensure a ton of action there, and of course you can't ever get 100% certainty about something like conditioning. Lets also not forget that Hughes is about to turn 33 in October. Penn is five years younger. And has less than 1/3 as many fights. Maybe this isn't quite the tipping point for Hughes, but its certainly not far away.

Hughes is a Miletich guy, which means he's training BJJ with Jeremey Horn. Pat Miletich is fighting in the the IFL on Saturday night as well (fighting the aforementioned Renzo Gracie, coincidentally), so its interesting to wonder if that pulled any resources from Hughes' training, or if both fighters training side-by-side in the same gym will have helped Hughes. Personally I assume the former over the latter, but not necessarily enough to swing this considerably: its just yet another small factor that goes in to everything. It also goes without saying that Hughes won't have Miletich in his corner Saturday night, and will likely have Jeremey Horn there I assume.

Does Penn win this fight 6/10? Maybe not. But does Hughes win 2/3 which is what the line currently suggests? Not if Penn is healthy and conditioned, not by a longshot, in my opinion. Of course I can certainly be wrong on all this. I'm not infallable. This is all handicapping, its all my opinion garnered from years of experience and tons of research. If Hughes comes out and dominates Penn start to finish, i.e. the Gracie / Hughes fight, then its obvious I was wrong in my handicapping. But if its a close fight, especially one that goes the distance, i.e. any result that shows that Penn was in fact not a 2:1 underdog, I think my handicapping will have been correct, and will have been on the right side of the fight, regardless of outcome.

As a fan, i'm actually looking forward to this fight more than any other in the UFC in the past two years for sure. As a gambler, this isn't the best fight to load up on, as we're talking about ultimately small edges here compared to something I'd consider a near lock like Ortiz/Shamrock II for example. But as a handicapper we're talking about finding +EV edges and exploiting them: and there's no question that Penn as a 2:1 underdog is +EV. And being in position to arbitrage all that Hughes -105 / Hughes -135 there's no question we're talking about +EV. only question for people following my recommendations on this will be: arbitrage it all, or take the freeroll on the upset? Or even take the freeroll on Hughes, given where people were able to grab the line earlier you could certaily freeroll that side. Regardless, I'll post all three options, but I can guarantee my recommendation will be to freeroll on the upset.

For those without any hedge position on Matt Hughes, I do not think this line presents tremendous value to the point that you should place significant units on it. But at a 2:1 underdog, this line is clearly worth a single unit on Penn for those who are not arbitraging. For those arbitraging, i recommend taking the full shot on Penn: i.e. if you're set to win $500 if Hughes wins from your earlier positions, bet a corresponding $500 on BJ Penn at the current line, so that you break even if Hughes wins and will profit approx $500 if Penn pulls the upset.

Rashad Evans vs Jason Lambert
Rashad Evans -197
Jason Lambert +182

I've been one of the most vocal opponents of Rashad Evans in the past, and i'm not going to stop that here. Rashad is one of the classic practioners of the "lay and pray" method, using his superior wrestling skills to take down opponents and hold them down, but not doing any real damage or any real "fighting" per se, to roll himself to his first eight wins, including his most recent at UFN 5 against Stephan Bonnar. Bonnar, who looked OK in a wild fight with Forrest Griffen at the first Ultimate Fighter finale, but he's basically been proven since as not belonging in the top tier of the UFC. Rashad is ready to take his 8-0 record to the next step.

In this case, the next step is Jason Lambert who steps in with a 22-5 MMA record. Lambert we've seen at the last several UFC events - most probably first remember the name from UFC 58 (USA vs Canada) in March of this year where he defeated Rob MacDonald with a first-round kimura submission. Lambert was back at UFC 59 in April, knocking out Terry Martin in the second round. Lambert then TKO'd Branden Lee Hinkle in the first round of UFN 5 in the end of June. This will be Lambert's first televised fight, as both previous matchups were undercard battles not shown.

Both fighters are at the top of their games right now, and this is a big test for each of them. The winner will be in a position to force their way on to Chuck Liddell's crowded calendar for a shot at the light-heavyweight title (where they'll be mercilessly abused by The Iceman, but hey at least they'll get a shot).

Lambert probably has the overall edge on the ground, in terms of better striking on the ground and certainly better jiu-jitsu: while Rashad definitely has the better takedowns and the overall better wrestling ability.

Ultimately I think this fight is closer than the line indicates, and warrants a bet on the underdog here. This fight has a strong possiblity of going the distance, in which case Rashad probably wins the decision due to likely having the edge in takedowns. But I think Rashad is strongly overvalued here and overrated, and I think that warrants a bet on Lambert here. I think this is a fight that's pretty cautious by both fighters, with Lambert watching out for Rashad's superior explosiveness, superior conditioning, and superior wrestling takedowns and Rashad watching for Lamberts submissions and striking. But hopefully rather than a snoozefest we see these two fighters engage, in which case the edge goes to Lambert. Lambert by guillitine in the second round, wagering a unit.

Jens Pulver vs Joe Lauzon
Jens Pulver -672
Joe Lauzon +612

This fight almost doesn't deserve a writeup. Jens "Little Evil" Pulver is a Miletich fighter and was a former UFC lightweight champion. Jens was last seen in the UFC for UFC 35 (1/2002) where he defeated BJ Penn in a contriversial majority decision. Since the, Jens has been fighting primarily in Shooto and in PRIDE, where he's been pretty dominant. He's won 7 of his last 9, and one of the losses was to standout Takanori Gomi at Pride Shockwave 2004. Lauzon looks like a decent fighter on paper with a 13-3 MMA record, but he's no where near the tier of fighter as Pulver. However, Pulver does have some questions, especially regarding his cutting of 20 pounds for this fight. This opened at -600 and has risen from there. I think its still of value under -1000 but the line's certainly not attractive enough to recommend loading up on. Pulver to win a half-unit.

Melvin Guillard vs Gabe Ruediger
Melvin Guillard -154
Gabe Ruediger +144

Gabe "Godzilla" Reudiger is a three-time former World Extreme Cagefighting lightweight champion and holds the rank of brown belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu under the infamous black belt Rodrigo Mederios. "Godzilla" obviously is a skilled fighter on the ground and has some decent standup thanks to training with Chute Boxing for Thai Boxing. He holds a 10-2 MMA record, losing his first ever fight and then tearing off nine wins in a row before losing to Hermes Franca at WEC 19 in March of this year and then wining his tenth in May in the new Pangea Fights organization. Guillard is a strong striker with some submission skills, with a 20-5 MMA record. We last saw him at UFC 60 (Hughes vs Gracie) where he quickly KO'd Rick Davis in the first round. Prior to that he was triangled by Josh Neer at UFN:3 and prior to that defeated Marcus Davis at the Ultimate Fighter 2 finale in November 2005. Guillard certainly has the striking edge, and he presents a very tough matchup for Ruediger here. While Guillard has demonstrated that he can get caught in a submission, his explosiveness and athleticism should present a very tough matchup for Reudiger. If you saw Reudiger's defeat at the hands of Hermes Franca at WEC 19 in March of this year, you saw how he struggled against a quick and explosive fighter, and Guillard presents a very similar challenge. Guillard has also been training up at Big Bear, which will definitely give him a big conditioning advantage. Guillard should get a TKO secured by the second round, risking one unit.

Mike Swick vs David Loiseau
Mike Swick -133
David Loiseau +123

I'm seeing a lot of people thinking Swick is being overrated here, but I think this line is pretty well set. While Quick Mike Swick hasn't been tested too much, he did demolish Joe Riggs and Loiseau is coming off the big loss to Rich Franklin at UFC 58 where he was battered in a five round war. Loiseau's best weapon, as everyone knows, are his elbows from the ground. And I really don't see this fight getting to the ground. Its going to be very quick, a banging fight on the feet and whoever lands the first big punch is going to close this out quickly. This bout will go a long way to establishing Swick's credibility: Loiseau is a top-tier opponent, and a very very important fight for both fighters: Swick can climb to the verge of a title shot with Rich Franklin if he wins (probably one fight away), and Loiseau will take a big step backwards if he loses two in a row here. If this fight gets out of the first round without Swick putting a serious beating on Loiseau, or if Swick ends up on the bottom at any point, Loiseau is going to steal this fight. This should be a great fight. With all the unknowns I can't argue with someone staying away from this fight, but I'll take Swick here for a unit, predicting a first round TKO.

Roger Huerta vs Jason Dent (prelim)
Roger Huerta -575
Jason Dent +525

Yet another massive mismatch on the cards, and rightfully so. Huerta is 14-1-1 in MMA and is yet another from the Miletich Fighting System. He has an impressive fight resume with wins in Rumble on the Rock, Superbrawl, and Extreme Combat. Dent is a decent Muay Thai fighter but not nearly in the same class. I was surprised to see some money move in on Dent - while he does have a puncher's chance here, Huerta wins this fight nine times out of ten. Huerta to win a half-unit.

Jorge Gurgel vs Danny Abbadi (prelim)
Jorge Gurgel -620
Danny Abbadi +560

Speaking of fights that don't deserve a writeup. Gurgel is no powerhouse but has a 9-2 MMA record, a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt and good Muay Thai striking. Danny "Get me a Sandwich" Abbadi is 2-2 and really is outclassed here. He's a striker and will always have a puncher's chance, but he's not going to win this fight. Gurgel to win a half-unit, with a first round submission.

Tyson Griffin vs David Lee (prelim)
Tyson Griffin -600
David Lee +540

Lee is a UK jiu-jitsu fighter with a BJJ purple belt and he trains with Brazilian Top Team black belt Ze Marcello. Lee normally fights at welterweight and is dropping down. He's got a 5-1 record, all in the Cage Rage series. Griffin is an up-and-comer with very good strength, wrestling skills, and great ground and pound. Griffin rolls this fight, and hopefully we'll see it as it should be a dominant win for Griffin, taking Lee down and beating on him. Despite the large line, this is a big mismatch and warrants multiple units. Griffin by TKO in the first round, laying six units to win a unit.

Summary of Picks ranked in order of expected value

Tyson Griffin -600 : 6 units to win 1 units

Jason Lambert +182 : 1 unit to win 1.82 units

Roger Huerta -575 : 2.875 units to win .5 units

Melvin Guillard -154 : 1.54 units to win 1 unit

B.J. Penn +186 : One unit to win 1.86 units (if you're not on the arbitrage opportunity)

Mike Swick -133 : 1.33 units to win 1 unit

Jorge Gurgel -620 : 3.1 units to win .5 unit

Jens Pulver -672 : 3.36 units to win .5 unit

Total wagered: 20.25 units to win 8.18 units

on the larger fights, if you don't have the bankroll to withstand laying the large units, I recommend at least considering laying to win a half-unit on Tyson Griffin and to win a half-unit on Huerta, and laying off Gurgel and Pulver.

Performify's Pigskin Picks: Week Two

LAST WEEK RESULTS: 3-1 on the week, +2.53 units (3-1 +2.53u YTD). Loss on Game of the Week (0-1 -5u YTD).

This week brings a lot of well-set lines in my opinion, but there is still some value out there. On to the picks:

Atlanta -4.5 (+104) vs Tampa Bay
Tampa's young offensive line will continue to struggle this week, especially faced with the very aggressive Atlanta front four. While standout DE John Abraham will most likely not play, Patrick Kerney will. Look for the Falcons to use a lot of big Grady Jackson the a 360-pound veteran nose tackle they picked up a few weeks ago to effectively clog the middle, giving Grady about 70% of the snaps over faster but smaller DT Darrell Shropshire. Look for the Falcons defense to control the line of scrimmage, slowing Cadillac Williams and pressuring Tampa QB Chris Simms. Simms has a lot of problems with blocked passes at the line due to his throwing motion and due to the 2-step drop that they like to run. Look for Atlanta's big defensive ends to knock down several passes, which will further frustrate Simms. Caddilac is also still facing trouble with back spasms from earlier in the week, so look for him to be less than 100% and subbed more frequently by Michael Pittman. Falcons 24, Tampa Bay 10. Game of the Week.

Saints -3 (+122) at Packers
In short, I do think the Packers are as bad as they've looked in the preseason and last week. Ex-Seahawks safety Marquand Manuel is not a good fit for the Green Bay cover 2 defense: he's a run stopper who is below average playing deep cover, which is where he's forced to play in the cover 2. Look for Drew Brees to look to throw in to that deep cover 2 area defended by Manuel, and look for Manuel to give up some big plays. Look for Saints standout rookies Bush or Colston or both to light him up on some deep post/corner routes. Look for Saints standount d-tackle Brian Young (3 sacks last week) to have a huge day against Packers rookie guard Tony Moll and rookie center Jason Spitz. Expect Favre to be flushed from the pocket frequently, leading to sacks by the defensive ends and leading to Favre giving the ball away by throwing on the run. I don't expect this to always be the blowout that the Packers faced in Week One, but I do expect the Saints to have this game in hand a high percentage of the time. As such, i'm recommending moving the line from -2 (-105) to -3 (+122) as is availble on Pinnacle. New Orleans 28, Green Bay 14.

Giants +3 (-123) at Philly
With Westbrook, LB Jeremiah Trotter and CB Lito Sheppard all banged up, this line has not moved enough to compensate for the injuries this week. While I like Philly this year, I think they suffer a letdown at home and either win this by a field goal or lose outright. I expect the Giants superior running game to grind a lot of clock and keep this game a lot closer than expected. Eagles 21, New York Football Giants 20.

Tease of the Week: Chicago -8 + Seattle -7.
These games tease to Chicago -2 and Seattle -1. Chicago has a tremendous amount of value here at -2. Seattle likewise has value crossing the -7 and -3, but not quite as much as Chicago. If you don't like Seattle, you can tease in Baltimore -13 (teases down to -7, or even grab a 6.5 point teaser to get inside 7) to replace. Final scores: Chicago 21-17, Seattle 28-21.

Recap:
Atlanta -4.5 +104 : 5 units to win 5.20 units
Saints -3 +122 : 3 units to win 3.66 units
Giants +3 -123 : 1.23 units to win 1 unit
Teaser: Chicago -2, Seattle -1 : 2.2 units to win 2 unit

Performify's Pigskin Picks: Week One

Normally I do a full detailed writeup on each game, but due to playing a role in a friend's wedding last night (which took three nights and two full days out of my schedule this week) I wasn't able to finish the writeup.

I have completted my capping though, and will post my picks for the record.

First, last year's record:

Final NFL regular season record: 10-7 on Game of the Week, +21.5 units as posted
Final NFL regular season record: 33-35 overall, +14.5 units for the year on all posted plays.

All lines current as of posting:

Game of the Week: Kansas City Chiefs moneyline (+103) : Five units
Wait to place right before kickoff might get even better than +103

Chargers -3 +110 : three units
Wait on this line also: its going to move off three the way this is going.

Colts -3 +103 : two units
Waiting on this line as well, expect continued move in my favor

Chicago -3.5 -111 : one unit
terrible line movement for this pick but still worth one unit under my system.

Mansion free $1000 bet offer

I'm finding a lot of people still don't know about the Mansion free $1000 bet offer. So I'm going to take a second to explain. Mansion.com, a well-rated online Sports Book is doing a promotion to get new players. While some places might offer you a 10% signup bonus, Mansion is taking a different track. Mansion is offering a free $1000 bet on the Pittsburgh Steelers. How this works: you sign up for a Mansion account. You deposit $1100 - and they will even cover your Neteller instacash fees, if you do the instacash through Mansion's site. Then you go to the Sports Book (important! NOT the Sports Exchange) and place a $1000 wager on Pittsburg to win: this means you bet $1100 to win $1000, as is standard in Sports Betting.

The current line is Pittsburgh PK which means its a pick, you're picking them to win but not getting or laying any points. If Pittsburgh wins the game, you win your wager and your account will show a balance of $2100 (your $1100 returned + $1000 profit).

Now comes the fun part - if Pittsburgh loses, Mansion is refunding your bet. That means you come back and check your account balance and you're either going to have $2100 if you win, or $1100 if you lose. Its literally a shot at free money.

Once you've opened your Mansion account and placed your bet, you can then also decide to hedge your free money. This costs you EV overall, but will guarantee a profit. You could go to a site such as Bodog or Pinnacle, and bet say $525 on the Dolphins to win. This would result in the following scenario:

Dolphins win: $0 loss on Mansion (thanks to the refund), win +$475 on Bodog, profit $475
Steelers win: $1000 profit on Mansion, lose -$525 on Bodog, profit $475.

So, if you haven't already, you should certainly take advantage of this great offer. I know it sounds too good to be true. But no, its not a scam - its merely a clever promotional tool to encourage signups from a reputable Sports Book. And its a great way to get a free $475 or take a shot at a free $1000.

If you're interested in further details, click through to the comments where I've posted more specifics on how to hedge this bet.

Football season

Lack of recent updates since returning from Vegas have been due to two things exclusively. 1) the start of fantasy football season - I am commishing six leagues for the Two Plus Two Sports Betting forum, plus playing in three leagues. And 2) a complete lack of poker since coming back from Vegas. Its weird: i did really well at the cash games in Vegas, came home, and haven't played at all. Of course, issue #1 has taken quite a bit of my available free time of late. But still.

Of course fantasy football gives way to real football. Like last year I'll be posting all of my NFL picks here and on TwoPlusTwo.com. Picks for this week should be up in the next couple days, but don't expect anything too large: the week one lines generally have the least value of the entire season, as the books have had the entire offseason to set the lines.