UFC 60 full card predictions

UFC 60 is Saturday, and brings us the eagerly anticipated bout between the legendary Royce Gracie and the juggernaut that is Matt Hughes. Per usual, full card predictions follow.

Matt Hughes vs. Royce Gracie
Matt Hughes -300
Royce Gracie +270 - but wait to take this

I don't think I need to provide much background on either of these fighters. But I will anyways. Hughes needs no introduction - he's 38-4 and has held the UFC welterweight championship since UFC 48, sucessfully defending his belt in UFC 50 against Georges St. Pierre, in UFC 52 against Frank Trigg, and in UFC 56 against Joe Riggs. Most believe Hughes to be one of, if not the best pound-for-pound fighter in the world. Royce of course is considered the godfather of MMA, winning three of the first four UFC's, back when they were eight-man bracket fights with three (or four, for UFC 2) fights per night. Gracie's last UFC fight was a disappointing draw in his rematch with Ken Shamrock in the UFC's first superfight at UFC 5. Gracie then stepped away from MMA for five years, returning to the PRIDE Grand Prix in 2000.

Royce's best performance in the past few years was probably the first Pride Grand Prix (in 2000), which I just recently reviewed on DVD. First round Gracie takes out Nobuhiko Takada, who had beaten Mark Coleman just six months before. Gracie beats him by decision, which for a pure BJJ specialist fighting from his back mostly means he had clear control of the fight despite not being able to end it. Next day, in the championship rounds, Royce's fight against "The Gracie Hunter" Sakuraba was pretty freaking incredible on both sides, and given that it went six 15-minute rounds - yes, ninety minutes - before Gracie's corner threw in the towel... and given that Sakuraba has dominated most of the rest of the best BJJ fighters in the world, despite not being a win for Gracie it was a hell of a fight. It was a lot closer than a lot of people expected, given Sakuraba had already stopped Vitor Belfort in his prime (although Belfort broke his hand in that fight, which limited him), and handed Royler Gracie his first loss. Gracie then took another break from MMA, returning to Pride in 2003 where he fought 225lb judo specialist Hidehiko Yoshida to a draw. Gracie's next fight was a defeat of Chad "Akebono" Rowan in Dec 2004 and isn't really anything to write home about. typical grappler vs. big out of shape guy - "Akebono" Rowan is 0-3 in MMA as a 484-pound sumo fighter. In Gracie's most recent fight, December 2005, he fought to a draw against Hideo Tokoro at K-1-Premium 2005 Dynamite. I think that's probably the most relevant. Tokoro is certainly not the best fighter in the world, with a 14-10 MMA record, but he was quick and athletic, and he and Gracie went to war in a fight that went the distance.

No one argues that Hughes is a beast, and that he certainly should be the favorite to win this fight. The question is, how much of a chance does Gracie realistically have. All four of Hughes' losses (UFC 46 vs. BJ Penn in 2004, Pele Landi-Jons in 2001 and twice vs. Dennis Hallman, in UFC 29 in 2000 and in Extreme Challenge 21 in 1998) have come against great BJJ fighters - and its certainly arguable that all three of those are more well-rounded than Royce. But its certainly demonstrable that the only people who've managed to stop Matt Hughes are top-tier BJJ guys. He's facing the godfather of MMA BJJ next, and I think Gracie certainly has a chance to win this fight.

Hughes opened as a -380 favorite, Royce was around +350. He quickly started falling, he was +330 within 48 hours of the line opening. I was hoping money would roll in on Hughes, and I'd be able to take Royce around +450. I've been really surprised to see the line fall the way it has. Current line is well set, I think: +270 translates to ~27% chance of winning for Gracie.

Look for Royce to be a lot better than expected on his feet - he'll counter Hughes' overhand right with straight rights and with kicks. Gracie has a significant reach advantage on the feet - while he's no where near the striker that Hughes is, I think he's going to surprise Hughes by being better on his feet than Hughes expects. But despite what Hughes says, this fight will go to the ground. Gracie will jump guard if he has to. Gracie can also essentially force Hughes in to a takedown by throwing kicks with his long legs and keeping Hughes at bay. Hughes will be forced to close ground to strike, and when he does Gracie is going to ensure the fight goes to the ground. I see Hughes having trouble creating offense on the ground - Gracie has a very good defensive guard, with his long legs he can keep Hughes away from his head and not allow the traditional ground and pound. Hughes obviously is going to be worried about getting submitted once it hits the ground, so I look for him not to work on the ground nearly as much as he normally would.

Hughes is the favorite, and should be the favorite, there's no question. However, I'm going to go with a very small wager on Gracie here. I know everyone thinks Gracie has absolutely no chance, but I think Gracie is very much a live underdog and I'm going to be rooting for him. I recommend only the smallest of wagers here, though. There are much better values on this card. But I'm going to put a tiny wager on Gracie. If you're purely looking for value, then I'd recommend staying away from this fight. I also recommend placing this bet late: while I've been really surprised to see the line fall the way it has, I think money is going to come in on Hughes tomorrow and I expect to see the line climb. If it doesn't, I might even change this pick. Stay tuned.

Brandon Vera vs. Assuerio Silva
Brandon Vera -222
Assuerio Silva +202

Brandon "The Truth" Vera is the up-and-coming brash fighter from California's City Boxing who holds a 6-0 MMA record. He's coming off a first round KO of Justin Eilers in UFC 57 and before that an explosive second round knockout of Fabiano Scherner at Ultimate Fight Night 2. Vera has an impressive pedigree, as a two-time Pan-American Champion, Abu-Dhabi veteran, 8x Grapplers Quest Champion, W.K.A. Muay Thai National champion. Silva is Muay Thai and Brazilian jiu-jitsu fighter, a Vale Tudo and Pride veteran with a 10-4 MMA record. Silva lost two of his first three fights, and then went on a seven fight win streak during late 1999 through 2001. He then took a couple years off, and returned to MMA in 2003, where he's since lost two of his four fights since his return: losses to Aleksander Emelianenko in PRIDE - Busihido 1 in late 2003, and then in his UFC debut a loss to Tim Sylvia at Ultimate Fight Night 3 in January 2006 - a fight in which Silva took Sylvia the distance and lost a unanimous decision. This fight is a little closer than the line indicates, as Vera's popularity makes him a much bigger target for the public money. Assuerio Silva has also never been stopped in his 14 fight career, so I expect this to be a three round striking war. So betting the underdog would be a +EV move here - the current line gives Silva a 1/3 chance of winning, and I'd put it closer to 40%. However, that being said I think this line is close enough that my pick is still going to be Vera by decision.

Mike Swick vs. Joe Riggs
Mike Swick -109
Joe Riggs -101

"Quick" Mike Swick of American Kickboxing Academy - and TUF season one - has a 8-1 MMA record, with his only loss a KO by fellow TUF'er Chris Leben in WEC 9. Swick's last major fight was against Steve Vigneault at UFC 58 (USA vs. Canada) in which he score a first round submission. Joe "Diesel" Riggs at 23 years old is already an MMA veteran, with a 24-7 MMA record. Riggs holds a BJJ blue belt, and got his MMA start with the "Rage In The Cage" series, fighting in RITC 30, 31, 33, 34, 35, 36, 38, 39, 42, 43, 45, 53, and 60. Riggs then made his UFC debut in UFC 49 defeating Joe Doerksen, and then has gone on to lose to Ivan Salaverry in UFC 52, then put on a three consecutive PPV run with a win over Chris Lytle in UFC 55, lose to Matt Hughes in UFC 56, and then defeated Nick Diaz by unanimous decision in UFC 57. Riggs is moving up to middleweight (185) for this fight, which might hurt his quickness - he's much better suited for his current fighting class of welterweight (170). As the line indicates, this is obviously the closest fight of the evening. There are a lot of unknowns which make this match very tough to call a winner. Swick is essentially untested, and Riggs will be the first major test of his career. How will Swick fare against someone he likely can't knock out quickly? How will Riggs fare at 185? This is going to be an exciting fight, it shouldn't go to the ground and should go back and forth on the feet. This is ultimately too close to call as a serious winner, but I'm going to go with Rigg's experience and look for him to finally slow down "Quick" Swick with a third round TKO.

Diego Sanchez vs. John Alessio
Diego Sanchez -474
John Alessio +434

Sanchez is of course the winner of the first The Ultimate Fighter, with a 14-0 professional MMA record (and a 1-0 pro boxing record, with his win by knockout). Sanchez is a student of Greg Jackson's Gaidojutsu, and is a very well-rounded fighter trained in wrestling, boxing, kickboxing and jiu-jitsu. Alessio is a Brazilian jiu-jitsu fighter training under the Millenia MMA center with Gabe Ruediger, with a MMA record of 16-7. However, most of Alessio's losses came early in his career: he is 10-2 since 2001. This fight should actually be a lot closer than the line indicates: Alessio is a MMA veteran with numerous fights under his belt in the UFC, KotC, Pride, and Extreme Challenge. Sanchez will most likely win this fight, however as with many crowd-favorite TUF fighters, this line is off. Small wager here on Alessio, as the real line should be much closer to the +250 to +300 range.

Melvin Guillard vs. Rick Davis undercard fight, may not be telecast
Melvin Guillard -264
Rick Davis +244

This is the strangest fight on the card - don't expect this to be televised unless something insane happens during the bout. Guillard is a kickboxer and wrestler with an extensive MMA record (60 amateur fights and 26 pro fights with a 19-5-2 record), and was a contestant on The Ultimate Fighter season two. In TUF:2, Guillard lost to Josh Burkman in the second episode, but was an undercard fight on the finale where he defeated fellow TUF'er Marcus Davis. Guillard then was stopped by Josh Neer at Ultimate Fight Night 3. Davis is 3-0-1, almost an unknown fighter. This is a pure setup fight, where Guillard is being given a match to re-establish himself in the octagon. Biggest lock on the card - Guillard by first round knockout.

Dean Lister vs. Alessio Sakara undercard fight, may not be telecast
Dean Lister -173
Alessio Sakara +163

Lister you might recognize as an assistant coach for Tito Ortiz on TUF:3. Lister is a Brazilian jiu-jitsu fighter from California (1,2,3, Team Punishment!) with a relatively impressive pedigree. He is a two-time National Sambo champion, an Abu Dhabi Submission wrestling veteran and AD Absolute Division Champion (in which he beat Marcio Cruz and Nathan Marquardt among others). Dean is a BJJ brown belt training under Royce Gracie , and also trains at City Boxing for boxing, kickboxing and cardio. And of course, he trains with "The Huntington Beach Bad Boy" Tito Ortiz. "Legionarius" Sakara we've seen at UFC 57 where he beat Elvis Sinosic by decision, and in UFC 55 where he got kicked in the groin and the fight was stopped. Sakara is a former professional boxer, with blinding hand speed and amazing precision.

Lister has a 7-4 MMA record: he opened with an impressive 6-1 run in King of the Cage, but has lost three of his last four fights - he lost his last KotC fight in December 2003 against Jeremy Horn (in one of the best KotC fights I've ever seen, a fight that went the distance and Lister nearly pulled the upset over Horn), and then two of his three fights once he jumped from KotC to Pride. This could be another of the closest fights on the cards - Sakara is a significantly superior striker here with very heavy hands, Lister is significantly better on the ground. However this also has an outside possibility of being a very boring fight - if Lister takes this to the ground, Sakara doesn't have much in terms of ground skills so he'll be holding on and praying. Sakara is a very live underdog here with his heavy hands, this fight could go either way. But assuming Lister can successfully put Sakara on his back, Lister by submission in the late second round.

Gabriel Gonzaga vs. Fabiano Scherner undercard fight, may not be telecast
Gabriel Gonzaga -242
Fabiano Scherner +222

This is a matchup of two Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belts: Gabriel "Napao" Gonzaga trains with Chute Boxe academy, squaring off against American Top Team West fighter Gabiano "Pega-Leve" Scherner. They sport similar records, 5-1 for Gonzaga and 5-2 for Scherner. Both have an impressive collection of BJJ trophies on the wall: Gonzaga is a four-time Brazilian jiu-jitsu National Champion and a five-time Sao Paulo State Brazilian jiu-jitsu Champiop. Gonzaga won the heavyweight BJJ Black Belt Grand Prix in 2004 as well as the ADCC Trials Brazil Champion and took second place in ADCC 2005; Scherner is a six-time Brazilian National Champion, having wins in the Jiu-Jitsu World Champion (absolute division), Copa RFT Champion, Copa America (absolute division), ADCC Brazilian Trials 2003 runner-up and was the winner of the ADCC Brazilian Trials 2005. In MMA Scherner also has won the IFC North American heavyweight belt.

We last saw Scherner at Ultimate Fight Night 2, where he was TKO'd by Brandon Vera in the second round. We last saw Gonzaga at UFC 56, where he KO'd Kevin Jordan late in the third round. Overall Gonzaga has the slightly more impressive fight resume, with MMA wins over Branden Lee Hinkle and grappling wins over (former UFC heavyweight champ) Ricco Rodriguez and (UFC heavyweight) Marcio Cruz . Both fighters have met before, once at the ADCC Brazilian Trails - not an MMA event, a submission grappling event. Gonzaga won that bout. This will feature much more striking than you'd think given that we've got two BJJ blackbelts here. Gonzaga is a better fighter here, with a better resume. Gonzaga by submission, setup by strikes, in the second round.

Jeremy Horn vs. Chael Sonnen undercard fight, may not be telecast
Jeremy Horn -278
Chael Sonnen +258

Horn is pretty much the definition of the term MMA veteran. At thirty years old, he sports a 76-14-5 MMA record, with notable wins over David "the crow" Loiseau, Forrest Griffin, and a young Chuck Liddell back in UFC 19 (March 1999). We’ve most recently seen Horn in the UFC at 54: Boiling Point where he was KO'd by Chuck Liddell, and again at UFC 56: Full Force (November 2005) where he defeated Treveor Prangley by unanimous decision. Horn faces Team Quest wrestler Chael Sonnen, who holds a 14-7-1 MMA record. We last saw Sonnen at Ultimate Fight Night 4 back in April, where he won a unanimous decision over Trevor Prangley. Sonnen's previous fight was his UFC debut, a loss to Renato Sobral by triangle choke in UFC 55. Sonnen has fought horn twice, first at Extreme Challenge 57 in May 2004 where he was TKO'd in the first round (Horn opened a cut that stopped the fight) and again at SportFight 6 in September 2004 where Jeremy Horn again won with a guillotine choke. Horn wins this fight easily.

Spencer Fisher Vs. Matt Wiman undercard fight, may not be telecast
Spencer Fisher NL
Matt Wiman NL

Fisher is an MMA veteran with a 17-2 record, and fights with the Miletich camp. Wiman is an up-and-comer who fights with Tulsa Top Team, who is well-rounded with a blue belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu and trains stand-up with Sam Adams Muay Thai. Wiman is the Mid-America Extreme Fighting Champion in the 170-pound category but is fighting here as a lightweight (155 lbs). We last saw Fisher win a split decision over Sam Stout at UFC 58 (USA vs. Canada), and we also saw him pull wins at Ultimate fight Night 2 over Thiago Alves and UFN 3 over Aaron Riley. Wiman is a live underdog here, and a good fighter, but Fisher's octagon experience will likely prove to be too much for the young fighter to handle. We'll have to see what the line says if its released - I'd be on Fisher at -250 or less, and would start to strongly look at Wiman at anything above +200.

Units transacted, using $100 units
Royce Gracie: secured arbitrage, see comments: +1.8 units risk free if he wins
Brandon Vera -222 : .55 units to win .25 units
Joe Riggs -101 : .2525 units to win .25 units
John Alessio +434 : .2304 units to win 1 unit
Melvin Guillard -264 : 2.64 units to win 1 unit
Dean Lister -173 : .865 units to win .5 unit
Gabriel Gonzaga -242 : 2.42 units to win 1 unit
Jeremy Horn -278 : 2.78 units to win 1 unit
Spencer Fisher : No Line

Almost a WSOP seat - two final tables Saturday

Saturday night, local poker pro Rizen and semi-pro GrantMasterFlash and I finally executed a plan we'd been discussing for quite a while - a focused day of poker. My house is set up as a pretty high-tech bachelor pad, wired for gigabit ethernet throughout, etc. I've got a pretty spacious office setup with room for four computer stations. So we decided we'd put ourselves in one room and bang away at our respective games - Rizen would hit his usual big buyin tournaments, while Grant and I would concentrate on trying to win a seat to the World Series of Poker this year (yeah, Rizen already has his seat locked up). Grant and I intended to hit the wide variety of tournaments on Bodog, but it turned out that Bodog wasn't able to meet their minimum entry numbers for the vast majority of their tournaments Saturday, so very few actually kicked off. However, Grant hit several in the $200 range and managed to final table two of them, albeit wasn't able to take down a win.

I had a very solid day. My main plan was to play the Bodog $67 satellites, of which I think only two fired that entire day - I'd register for everyone that came up, the table would launch, we'd be 20-50 people short of the minimum to launch, and so the table would eventually close. So I ended up just four-tabling the $33 SNGs for most of the afternoon, and ended up with a very nice 21% ROI on the day thanks to in part a series where I finished third, first and first.

On Rizen's recommendation, I gave the Full Tilt $200+15 Saturday Winner's Choice event a shot. This tournament allowed the winner to chose between a Main Event seat and a WPT event seat. Now a $215 level of buyin is normally a little above my tournament bankroll (although I have played in the Party Super $150-level events twice), and the field was incredibly tough, with several "known" players including one near the top of the PocketFives player ranking list.

We had 115 entries in the Saturday Winner's Choice, and I was 17th in chips at second break with three tables remaining. From there, I doubled up twice in succession, once with a major suckout my AJ vs AK spiking a jack, but then top player Colson10 raised from EP - this wasn't unusual, as he'd been super aggressive throughout, had built a monster chiplead and was raising almost every hand. I came over the top with AQs, he called with 55 and I hit the queen to double through him.

I had now climbed to 7th in chips with 16 remaining. With blinds at 300/600, Colson10 open raises in EP to 1600, I make it 3300. big blind comes over the top of me for another 3000, Colson folds I call. I've got 99, he's got 88. mine holds.

Final table hits at 10:53pm. I'm still 7th in chips. Rizen recognizes three of the players here (including Colson), and says they're all really good. Great :)

I claw my way to fifth in chips with seven left, mostly by staying pretty quiet and getting in a couple steal raises. I come over the top of someone's raise at some point with AQ and they fold, which was probably the only contested hand I won at the final table. I had enough chips to stay alive and pick my spot - mostly, i stayed quiet and let Colson10 and the others snipe off a couple people, to the point that we were finally four handed. I finally found my spot getting dealt 88 in one of the blinds. Colson10 raised, and I pushed over the top. He appeared to think about it for quite a while - or maybe he was just multitabling - before he called. He turned over J9o to my 88, and he flipped good hitting his hand and I failed to suck out. I was out in fourth.

Losing to a top internet player who was the eventual winner - for a decent $1615 payout for my troubles. A great finish, and a strong confidence builder. I'd hit a higher buyin tournament stacked with some top names, and managed to come out near the top. And the really nice thing - the Bodog $67 qualifier I was running in was nearing the final table, and I was the chiplead - so I had another immediate shot at winning my seat.

As I mentioned earlier, my intention for the day was to hit several of these Bodog $67 satellites. I think only two fired off the entire day, and I only played in one, but managed to make a really nice run. I took over the chiplead towards the end, entered the final table as second in chips, and basically came one hand away from winning my main event seat as I ran in to a big hand from the chipleader who I was sure was about to double me up and put me in position to run through the rest. Once I finished the Full Tilt Winner's Choice, I took a little better notes on the Bodog satellite, so here is a running log in timestamp format:

We pick up at the second break, where I'm third in chips with 36 remaining

10:27pm - I'd been trying to get to the chiplead for a while, just as a humorous little challenge while being cheered on by Grant and Rizen. I finally hit a small pot and jumped in to chiplead with 32 remaining. Because I was laughing so hard, I went ahead and grabbed a screenshot. 10:39pm - my JJ vs AQ vs 77 in big pot - both smaller stacks all-in preflop. A queen hits the flop, but a Jack turns up next, and I'm well in the chiplead with 36k

10:43pm - my AQ vs JJ vs TT, queen on the flop. I jump to 66k in chips, bodog then immediately crashes. I reopen to be dealt ATo, and hit a flop of a KQJ rainbow and drag another decent pot. Nice.

11:29pm - just finished my Full Tilt final table, so concentrating here even more. Lose a coinflip with my AJ vs someone's 99 for about 1/6th my stack - doesn't really hurt that bad, but does drop me to second in chips overall i think

12:13pm - second in chips, four left. really close to chiplead. Tough decision with blinds 800/1600 - UTG limps, button limps, i call in the small blind with AQd. The big blind pops it to 9k, and the UTG limper pushes for 50k, about half my stack. I give it a long think, with Rizen looking over my shoulder, and ultimately decide to fold. BB calls, and its 99 vs AK - and 99 wins unimproved. Good laydown.

12:20pm - blinds 1000/2000, UTG pops to 4k. I make it 12k on the button with AKo and the small blind pushes - UTG folds, I call and find myself in a coinflip with nice dead money against 66. However, I fail to improve.

12:22pm - I pop it to 6k from the small blind, and am called by the big blind. I cbet the flop, he cold calls. I check the turn, he pushes, and I fold. He shows a made straight. I drop down about 30k total in ships from these two hands, still second in chips at ~80k but really close to third in chips.

12:25pm - third break. I'm now third in chips. DREXtheTEX is chiplead with 134k, jiveking second with 83k, I have 78k, and cmonuts brings up the rear with 26k.

12:41pm - fluctuated up and down, and then the following hand occurred. I had JJ and position on the chiplead, who had been pretty aggressive and shown a tendency to bluff and try to bully people around with really marginal holdings postflop. I was waiting for my opportunity to set him up, and thought I'd finally found it. He raised the standard opening raise, and I came over the top with a re-raise with my jacks. The chiplead flat called. The flop was all undercards, 7-7-9 I think. He checked, and I bet a little trying to induce him to come over the top as he'd been doing. Sure enough, he came over the top, and I said "yes!" as i instacalled. Oh, crap - he turns over queens. I fail to suckout, and I'm out in fourth place, zero payday. Had I won that hand, I'd have had more than 2/3rds of the chips at the final table, and have been in great position to walk away with my seat in the main event.

All in all, a great day of poker. And a profitable one - between my SNG winnings and my two final tables (with one very decent cash), I was the big winner on the day out of the three of us - of course then Rizen had to go and show me up winning some little tournament on Sunday, so now its up to GrantMasterFlash to score something big this week as well. We'll both keep concentrating on winning a main event seat, so best of luck to him - and myself - in that venture.

Update: I've updated my Poker Resume / Top Ten Tournament Finishes to include this latest tournament cash.

Rizen has arisen

Fellow Kansas-Citian and friend Rizen has officially arrived in the poker world. He's been climbing the pocket fives player rankings for the past several months, and has started shooting up the list aggressively since he officially turned pro in early March. Well, after last night, Rizen's certainly going to break the top ten, and should be in the top five in my opinion.

Last night, Rizen took down the biggest tournament on the net: the Pokerstars $1 Million Guaranteed. Rizen pulled down $156,815.60 for his efforts. Rizen has a quick post up about it on his blog, here: Rizen's Poker Blog: Stars 1 million win etc.

Congrats, Rizen. Way to go, buddy.

Hand analysis: AQ, do you make the call

I got involved in a debate on the following hand, and ended up doing enough work on the hand that I think its worth posting. This is really long, and has a lot of hand ranges and EV calculations in it. If you're just interested in a quick answer, I'd skip to the bold part at the bottom, and read that and from the rest of the way out...

Here's the original question as posed:

Just out of curiosity, I'd like to get anyone's opinion on what they'd do here in the following tournament hand. It is a $20 buy in, w/o rebuys or add ons. Just a good ol' freezeout style tourney.

You are UTG with AQ os. You have ~6000 in chips. Blinds are 50/100. You raise to 600. It folds to a short(er) stack w/~1350 in chips, who goes all in. SB, with ~5300 in chips goes all in as well.

FWIW, I know it is hard to give an opinion without knowing how the players have been etc, but in this example, YOU (with AQ) and the SB have been playing the same type of game. Semi-Tight/aggressive. Neither has done anything (seemingly) fancy, such as button raises when folded to and raising ridiculous amounts after several limpers in hopes to simply take down that pot right then and there. As for the already all in 1300 chip d00d, it's irrelevant, really, as he is all in, and you are facing a much bigger task of taking on someone with just a slightly smaller chip stack.

To ME, this seems like a no brainer. What would you do, if you were the UTG player with the original pf raise? A) Call, or B) Fold?

My response:

Really depends on your reads in this scenario, as you mentioned. But absent reads: As always, its about putting your opponents on a range of hands.

So let's look at it from just about every player's perspective:

Shorter stack with 1350: there's 750 in the pot to him, and he's guaranteed a call from the UTG raiser. Assuming he's in late position, and smart enough to realize he's going to want to get his money in the middle soon, i'd put him on a range something like any pair, any broadway. At least, I'd make this move with at least that range if not wider...

Small blind with 5300: Assuming he's a thinking straightforward player, he's doing one of two things here: he could be making a squeeze play here, trying to squeeze the UTG raiser and flip the shortstack with a good amount of dead money. Or, he's got a vulnerable hand that doesn't want multiway action.

Based on those two factors, I'd put him on a range like: pairs 77 - QQ, any ace, any two face cards. Either he's got a middle pair up to queens trying to protect it, or looking to flip for the dead money with a weak ace or two faces and doesn't expect to be too far behind. Based on moving in here, its really unlikely to see AA or KK here.

So if I'm the UTG raiser, here's the scenario: Its ~7350 in the pot, and ~4700 to call. Now, I'm not raising 6xBB UTG here, that's a leak unless for some reason that's the standard raise at this table, but when it comes back to making the call when the SB pushes, I'm making this call myself with AQ most of the time, given the information we've been given. If we're close to the end of the tournament or something I can probably find a fold, as I probably could if the SB is an uber-rock. But otherwise I'm making this call most of the time in this scenario, and most of the time, expecting the SB to turn over JJ-77 or a wide range of aces. But lets take a deeper look and see if this is correct...

Its ~7350 in the pot, and ~4700 to call. The small blind is all-in for 1350, meaning 4150 of 12,050 the pot is going three-way if we call. so we've got:

4150 chips with:

Hand 1: 32.8150% 29.99% 02.83% { QQ-77, ATs+, KTs+, ATo+, KTo+ }
Hand 2: 36.6925% 33.14% 03.55% { AcQd }
Hand 3: 30.4924% 28.58% 01.91% { 22+, A5s+, KTs+, QTs+ JTs+, A8o+, KTo+ }

So the SB in hand 1 has 1362 chips in equity out of the main pot.
UTG raiser has 1523 chips in equity out of this main pot.
the all-in player has 1265 chips in equity out of the main pot

and in the side pot: 7900 chips with:

Hand 1: 44.5159 % 40.02% 04.49% { QQ-77, ATs+, KTs+, ATo+, KTo+ }
Hand 2: 55.4841 % 50.99% 04.49% { AQo }

The SB has 3517 chips in equity out of this side pot
The UTG raiser has 4383 chips in equity out of this side pot.

In total, that gives us:

So the SB has 4879 chips in equity out of both pots together.
UTG raiser has 5906 chips in equity out of both pots together.
the all-in player has 1265 chips in equity out of the main pot

So from a pot odds perspective against those hand ranges, the UTG raiser is faced with calling 4700 chips with 5906 chips in pot equity, making this a very clear +EV call with AQ against the ranges given.

If I narrow the hand range for the small blind to just 77-QQ, AJs+, KQs, AJo+, KQo, lets see if it changes any. if you've got any suggestions as to other ranges (i.e. what you'd really come over the top all-in with, let me know)

4150 chips with:

Hand 1: 35.7275% 32.13% 03.60% { QQ-77, AJs+, KQs, AJo+, KQo }
Hand 2: 33.4292% 29.23% 04.20% { AcQd }
Hand 3: 30.8432% 29.24% 01.60% { 22+, A5s+, KTs+, QTs+ JTs+, A8o+, KTo+ }

So the SB in hand 1 has 1483 chips in equity out of the main pot. UTG raiser has 1387 chips in equity out of this main pot. the all-in player has 1280 chips in equity out of the main pot

and in the side pot: 7900 chips with:

Hand 1: 49.7223% 43.23% 06.49% { QQ-77, AJs+, KQs, AJo+, KQo }
Hand 2: 50.2777% 43.79% 06.49% { AcQd }

The SB has 3928 chips in equity out of this side pot The UTG raiser has 3972 chips in equity out of this side pot.

In total, that gives us:

So the SB has 5411 chips in equity out of both pots together. UTG raiser has 5349 chips in equity out of both pots together. the all-in player has 1280 chips in equity out of the main pot

This slightly narrower range means the SB has a slight equity edge across both pots, but its still a +EV call for the UTG raiser with an expected value of 5349 chips and 4700 to call.

In summary, to this point - if you put the players on the following ranges:

Small blind: { QQ-77, ATs+, KTs+, ATo+, KTo+ }
All-in shorty: { 22+, A5s+, KTs+, QTs+ JTs+, A8o+, KTo+ }

Then the UTG raiser is faced with calling 4700 chips with 5906 chips in pot equity, making this a very clear +EV call with AQ against the ranges given.

If you narrow the SB's range for moving in here to { QQ-77, AJs+, KQs, AJo+, KQo }, it becomes closer, but its still a +EV call for the UTG raiser with an expected value of 5349 chips and 4700 to call.

That being said, I wanted to see how much it would change if I included AA and KK in the SB's range: i.e. he's overbetting a monster here trying to suck me in to calling, basically third or fourth level thinking.

For the main pot: 4150 chips with:

Hand 1: 35.250% { 77+, ATs+, KTs+, ATo+, KTo+ }
Hand 2: 35.331% { AcQd }
Hand 3: 29.419% { 22+, A5s+, KTs+, QTs+ JTs+, A8o+, KTo+ }

UTG raiser has 1466 chips in equity out of this main pot if we include AA and KK.

and in the side pot: 7900 chips with:

Hand 1: 47.060% { 77+, ATs+, KTs+, ATo+, KTo+ }
Hand 2: 52.940% { AQo }

The UTG raiser has 4182 chips in equity out of this side pot.

In total, that gives the UTG raiser 5648 in expected value, still making it a call.

If we narrow the range of the SB as in the second set of numbers:

4150 chips with:

Hand 1: 38.973% { 77+, ATs+, KTs+, ATo+, KTo+ }
Hand 2: 31.777% { AcQd }
Hand 3: 29.250% { 22+, A5s+, KTs+, QTs+ JTs+, A8o+, KTo+ }

UTG raiser has 1319 chips in equity out of this main pot if we include AA and KK.

and in the side pot: 7900 chips with:

Hand 1: 52.727% { 77+, AJs+, KQs, AJo+, KQo }
Hand 2: 47.273% { AQo }

The UTG raiser has 3735 chips in equity out of this side pot.

In total, that gives the UTG raiser 5054 in expected value, still making it a call in pure +EV terms, albeit a much much closer call.

Speaking with a pair of top players I know, they both recommended assigning some significantly tighter ranges and running the numbers. Based on discussion with them, we came up with the following ranges:

Small Blind: { 99+, AJs+, AQo+ }
Short Stack: { 22+, A2s+, KTs+, QJs, A2o+, KTo+, QJo }

Which gives us a pretty dramatic difference in outcome:

Main pot, 4150 chips with:

Hand 1: 47.772% { 99+, AJs+, AQo+ }
Hand 2: 26.833% { AcQd }
Hand 3: 25.394% { 22+, A2s+, KTs+, QJs, A2o+, KTo+, QJo }

UTG raiser has 1114 chips in equity out of this main pot with this much smaller range.

and in the side pot: 7900 chips with:

Hand 1: 64.401% { 99+, AJs+, AQo+ }
Hand 2: 35.599% { AcQd }

The UTG raiser has only 2812 chips in equity out of this side pot.

In total, that gives the UTG raiser 3926 in expected value, still making it a -EV call of -774 chips.

If you really wanted to get technical, you could assign probabilities to each of the above scenarios and weigh the total EV. Arbitrarily as an example, say I think he's putting on a squeeze play 20% of the time so he has the larger range but without AA or KK, 60% of the time he has the tightest range, and 20% of the time he has the middle range with AA and KK . In which case you'd assign the probability to each EV and then weight the total: in that example, 20% of 5906 + 60% of 3926 + 20% of 5054. That's 1181.2 + 2355.6 + 1010.8, for a total weighted EV of 4547.6. This would mean the call of 4700 chips is slightly negative EV in that scenario, which means its probably a bad call. However, just playing with the numbers, if you thought he had the tightest range only 50% of the time and 30% of the time was trying the squeeze play, it would jump to a very narrowly +EV call.

So in a really really long summary, like almost every other decision in poker it comes down to your reads and the hand ranges you assign your opponents. If you think the SB is as tight as just some big pairs and big aces, then its going to be a -EV call. If you think the SB has a bigger range, including if they're making a squeeze play here, then its going to be a +EV call.

Do I do this math in my head at the table? of course not. Can some players? I guess its possible. But most top players I've talked to do the same thing:

You just have a gut feel, from running simulations, from playing for years, from analyzing and studying hands like this after the fact, and had the feeling when I first saw the hand that I'd call the push if I were the UTG raiser faced with calling 4700 chips here. But I also assigned the SB a wider range than some would. But based on that range i was able to run the numbers which showed that my first instinct against that range was correctly a +EV call.

So as usual, the answer's not a simple call or fold. Personally with my tournament style if its early I'm probably more likely to gambool and call here, as I tend to put my opponents on a wider range until they prove me otherwise. Essentially, this hand comes down to your read on the small blind. Any read on the small blind as loose and I think this is an easy call, any read on the small blind as tight and its a fold. More than anything, this should help to underscore the importance of reads and assigning hand ranges, and hopefully walk a few people through some of the thought process behind evaluating one of these close hands after the fact mathematically.

Performify's Album Reviews: Snow Patrol - Eyes Open

Since I haven't weighed in here in a couple weeks, a quick review of the new album Snow Patrol - Eyes Open

Quick review: Much more mature than their prior album Final Straw, significantly featuring more instrumentation including heavy use of piano, violin, and even backing choirs on vocals. Lead singer's vocals are much improved. Obvious U2 influence throught the album thanks to touring with them on the Vertigo tour. Four stars out of five, and an early frontrunner for my top ten albums of the year. (four out of five stars)

Give it a try if you enjoy: Snow Patrol's previoius album, Coldplay, U2, The Shins.

Full Review:

Snow Patrol is an alternative rock band from Northern Ireland, who first shot to pop prominence with the emo-ish ballad "Run" from their 2004 album "Final Straw" (technically a 2003 release in the UK, but wasn't released in the US until 2004). However, as fans of Snow Patrol's album know, most of the rest of the album stood in stark contrast to the haunting "Run". With brisk-moving tracks such as "Wow", "Gleaming Auction" and "Somewhere a Clock is Ticking", the majority of Final Straw featured some of the same haunting vocals from "Run" set against harder rock songs, with predominant use of distortion in the vocals and guitars and muted drum beats. Most US Snow Patrol fans found the band through "Run", but appreciated the entire album. They drew obvious critical comparisons to Coldplay, but in my opinion their music featured a lot more emotional depth, especially in the lyrical content penned by vocalist/guitarist Gary Lightbody.

Their second album (from a US-centric viewpoint, from a UK view this is their fourth) Eyes Open dropped on May 9th. I picked it up Saturday.

The album begins with an ethereal guitar introduction to open the first track, "You're All I Have". For the first five seconds, I'm expecting "Run Part Two: Return of Emo". However, instead we get an immediate wave of sound - the drums, guitar and bass all slam in to the track and I'm pleasantly surprised by faster paced alt-rock feel much more typical of the "rest of" Final Straw. Within thirty seconds, however, I'm quite taken aback by one thing: it looks like vocalist Gary Lightbody used some of their payday from Final Straw's sales to take some serious vocal lessons.

As the opening track flows in to the second - the first single from the album, Hands Open - that thought that Lightbody's vocal performance has drastically improved is significantly underscored. Not only has he obviously put some serious work in to his voice in the past two years, but it appears to actually have paid off in spades. We've still got some of the angst, but we've got a clear lifting melody, we've got some very pleasant harmonizing in choruses, we've got something that's probably going to be really radio friendly, in the same way that Coldplay won over a lot of new friends. As Lightbody sings "Put Sufjan Stevens on... and we'll play your favorite song... Chicago bursts to life and your sweet smile remembers you, my hands open, my eyes open, I just keep hoping that your heart opens... much of the signature Snow Patrol guitar sounds drop out and its just Lightbody singing a pure series of notes over a driving drum beat and a thrumming bass line... and its really good stuff.

The rest of the album flows by, much in the same style: clean vocals, supportive yet subtle percussion, distinctive guitar sounds. Hands Open fades in to a ballad more in the style of Run titled "Chasing Cars". Chasing Cars draws obvious Coldplay comparisons, with a clean piano run sprinkled through the song, giving it a much more tender feel than their earlier works. Shut Your Eyes has an obvious U2 influence - Snow Patrol opened for U2 on their European leg of their Vertigo Tour, and its obvious that they've grown as a band from their time with Bono and the boys from Dublin. Shut Your Eyes would easily have been at home on U2's Pop. The next track, Its Beginning to Get to Me also has a strong U2 feel, but more of a "Beautiful Day" feel from "All That You Can't Leave Behind".

Track six, You Could Be Happy, opens with what sounds like a music box - or possibly a traditional Irish dulcimer - which I'm surprised to hear run through the entire three minute song. Lightbody's vocals come over the top in another lilting ballad punctuated with very light percussion and the soft voice of violins in the background. It flows nicely in to a very impressive "Make This Go On Forever", possibly their most mature song on the album which features more slow melodic piano, and a haunting choir of backing voices harmonizing on the emotional chorus of "The last girl in the last reason to make this last for as long as I could...first kiss and the first time that I felt connected to anything... the weight of water, the wait is on me to look past everything I have ever learned... the final word in the final sentence you ever wrote to me was "love".

Track eight, Set the Fire to the Third Bar, features a duet with Canadian folk singer Martha Wainwright. Headlights on Dark Roads is perhaps their fastest paced song to date, with driving alt-rock guitars reminiscent of Weezer among others. Open Your Eyes features more use of orchestration, including a dramatic building crescendo that runs through the last two minutes of the song. Finally the album closes with a haunting ballad "The Finish Line" which has an ambient new-age feel mixed with heavily reverberated vocals.

In closing out the album, I'm impressed with the band's obvious musical evolution. Its very clear that they've taken quite a bit from their time with U2, and they've obviously decided to make their music more musical with cleaner, improved vocals, orchestration, and the incorporation of several other instruments primarily the piano and violins, and even backing choirs on vocals. Four stars out of five, and an early frontrunner for my top ten albums of the year.

References:

My Top Ten albums of 2005 on Performify.com

My Top Ten albums of 2004 on cujofan.com

My "Most Listened-to albums of All Time" on Performify.com