UFC 58 full card predictions

This Saturday, March 4th is UFC 58: USA vs Canada. If you're in the KC area we're pay-per-viewing the event, and of course playing poker ahead of time, so drop me an email or comment if you're interested in an invite. Like last time, I'll post my full card picks here.

Unlike many past UFCs, I'm not calling a lot of upsets here. For the most part, many of these US-based UFC fighters are significantly superior to their Candadian counterparts and I do not predict significant upsets, with one notable exception.

UFC 57 results: 7-2 on picks. Prior results posted here

Tom Murphy vs Chistophe Midoux
Tom Murphy -158
Chistophe Midoux +148

UFC debut for both fighters. Tom Murphy was defeated on TUF2 by Rashad Evans by unanimous decision, but was hampered by a knee injury for the fight. Midoux is a black belt in Kyokushin Karate and is currently a contender in the TKO HW Division. Middoux's biggest name fight was a loss to Jeremy Horn in the second round of a fight in TKO 11 back in late 2002. Both fighters are 31 years old, Murphy is 4-1 in MMA competition whereas Midoux has almost three times the fight with a record of 9-4. Midoux is an OK BJJ fighter with great standup, however Murphy has excellent ju-jitsu himself with solid striking to back it up. This fight appears to be one that the UFC has handcrafted to give Murphy a good return fight, as he matches up very well with Midoux and should win this match easily in the second round via submission.

Yves Edwards vs Mark Hominick
Yves Edwards -522
Mark Hominick +472

Main story here is the return of the lightweights to the UFC with these two 155-pounders. Yves Edwards was last seen in the UFC knocking out Josh ‘The Punk’ Thomson in the first round at UFC 49 in August of 2004. Edwards is one of the pound-for-pound best in mixed martial arts. Hominick is coming up from the 145-pound weight class to fight at 155. Edwards has never been knocked out in his MMA career. Edwards is also credited as the founder of the style known as "Thug-Jitsu". You've got to love that. Hominick will be a live underdog as this should be a good fight and they'll both go toe-to-toe at each other striking heavily, however Edwards is a heavy favorite for a reason. Edwards wins by KO in the second round.

Kenny Florian vs Sam Stout
Kenny Florian -155
Sam Stout +145

Florian lost the finale versus Diego Sanchez in the first season of TUF. Florian then came back and won against Alex Karalexis at Ultimate Fight Night and then Kit Cope on the undercard of TUF2. Kit Cope was a Mui Thai standout striker, and that draws significant parallels to his current fight against Sam "Hands of Stone" Stout. Stout is an expert at K-1 style kickboxing and Muay Thai but is less skilled on the ground. Florian has cut weight from weighing 180 down for this fight at 155, where he's down to stay, and should have some significant size advantage as naturally weighing more than 155. Just as with the Cope fight, this is going to come down to Florian's ability to withstand some heavy blows from the standup fighter in Stout, and get the fight to the ground. Assuming Florian can get the fight on the ground, he'll have little trouble submitting Stout with his superior Brazilian Ju-Jitsu skills. This is a classic striker versus grappler battle, and Stout is certainly a live underdog with his punching power. If Stout were a larger underdog I'd probably be on him here, however at -155 Florian is the predicted winner by submission in the third round.

Nate Marquardt vs Joe Doerksen
Nate Marquardt -234
Joe Doerksen +214

Marquardt is a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu Blackbelt, holds a 2nd deg blackbelt in Pancrase MMA/Jiu-Jitsu, and has won King of Pancrase seven times. Doerksen is a solid vetran fighter, with wins over Chris Leben, Patrick Cote, Dennis Kang, and John Alessio. But he was beaten by Joe Riggs in UFC 49 (Sept 04). Marquardt has a somewhat similar style to Riggs (BBJ, striking, well rounded) but is significantly superior fighter to Riggs in my opinion. Marquardt hasn't lost since November 2003, winning his last three fights including his most recent win by unanimous decision over Ivan Salaverry at Ultimate Fight Night. Doerksen fought six times in 2005, and has lost two of his last three. Marquardt wins this one in a landslide. This is another reasonable odds fight to load up on.

Mike Swick vs Steve Vigneault
Mike Swick -603
Steve Vigneault +543

If you're an MMA junkie you probably know Mike Swick best as the host of UFC.com’s ‘Real Quick with Mike Swick’ video programs. Quick Mike Swick lost to Stephan Bonnar in TUF season 1, but then has gone 9-1 since he's "gone pro" with his only loss to TUF'er Chris Leben (who is an impressive 14-1) in a World Extreme Cagefighting event. Swick has been sidelined due to injury (knee) since August of 2005, this will be his first fight back. He says he is fully reabilitated and in fact says on his blog that "On March 4th I will be the most aggressive, most explosive, and most powerful I have ever been." Vigneault is a hard puncher with knockout ability and a ju-jitsu background, but has lost - in fact has been knocked out in - two of his last three fights. Swick is a member of the American Kickboxing Academy and trains with Paul Buentello. Look for Swick to make a triumphant return to the ring. Vigneault’s five losses have ended by KO/TKO and Swick will make it six with a first round KO. This is the biggest mismatch on the cards (as the line echos).

Rich Franklin vs David Loiseau
Rich Franklin -277
David Loiseau +227

Loiseau brings in explosive standup, with what is generally regarded as the strongest elbow strikes in MMA today. Franklin is the "new breed" of MMA fighter in the line of Chuck Liddel or Matt Hughes: big, strong, explosive striker with great takedowns, quality submissions, and great speed. Franklin has also been spending time in Davenport, IA with the Miletich Camp (home of Matt Hughes, Tim Silvia, and of course Pat Miletich).

They've shared a number of common opponents that they both beat up on: Both Franklin and Loiseau beat the hell out of Evan Tanner (UFC 53 and Ultimate Fight Night 2 respectively), but that didn't tell us much: Loiseau only needed two rounds, where Franklin needed four rounds to stop the fight but was clearly ahead the entire time. Likewise both beat Curtis Stout, however Loiseau took the fight to (unanimous decision) whereas Franklin beat Stout by submission (tap out due to mounted punches) halfway through the second round of their fight. However there's one common opponent that they didn't both beat: Loiseau was beaten by Jorge "El Conquistador" Rivera on 9/26/2003 in UFC 44. Rivera then went on to lose to Rich Franklin in UFC 50 on 10/22/2004.

Franklin is 15-1, with his only loss to the extremely impressive Ryoto "Lyoto" Machida in the 2003 Inoki MMA Festival. Machida has beaten Stephan Bonnar, Franklin and BJ Penn and is undefeated himself. Loiseau is 14 - 4, with two of Loiseau’s four losses via submission (to Jeremy Horn and in his first fight against Justin Bruckmann), and his tendency to give up his back and his mediocre ground skills make him the underdog in this fight. Loiseau has an impressive knack for getting out of bad situations on the ground, but he does not have excellent ground defense and has relied upon his escape ability rather than his defense on the ground.

All in all, I expect this title fight to be a good bout. Loiseau is very much a live underdog, his ability to pull an upset will hinge around his ability to open a cut on Franklin with his elbows and get the fight stopped due to a cut. However Franklin has not ever cut easily and I expect him to succesfully defend his title here, in a great fight. This is by no means my best fight of the night, however the line has moved in my direction: Franklin opened as a 3:1 favorite and the money moved in on Loiseau. I believe now at 2.7:1 Franklin is now the correct pick, the value has moved out of the Loiseau line. But I can't argue with Loiseau when he was a 3:1 underdog as a +EV line as he has more than a 3:1 shot of winning this fight. However, I call this as victory to Franklin by submission (rear naked choke) in the fourth round.

B.J. Penn vs Georges St. Pierre
Georges St. Pierre -150
B.J. Penn +140

Penn is, of course, returning to the Octagon for the first time since his title-winning effort over Matt Hughes in January of 2004, having resolved the legal dispute with the UFC (contract dispute over his taking a jump to K1 for an "offer he couldn't refuse" despite a provision in his expired UFC contract that if he won a title he would fall under contract automatically again) which forced the stripping of his belt. Penn is facing the consensus number one challenger in GSP, and the winner will almost certainly take on Matt Hughes for the belt.

Let me start off by saying I think this is going to be one of the ten best fights in UFC history. GSP is one of the best active fighters in the world. But in my opinion, BJ Penn is among the greatest MMA fighters ever and is a notch above St. Pierre.

St. Pierre trains with MMA standouts like David Loiseau and Patrick Cote on the Triumph Fight Team. GSP is a Brazillian Ju-Jitsu fighter, with great ground and pound to match his submission skills. I'm a GSP fan, and I picked him over Frank Trigg in UFC 54 and over Sean Sherk in UFC 56.

Common opponents is of course an important data point in MMA fighting. And its one of the biggest facts in this fight, in my opinion. On 1/31/04, B.J. Penn handed Matt Hughes his only loss since early 2001, in a very decisive win. Hughes is of course a legend in the sport, with an impressive 38-4 record. And win #36 for Hughes came in UFC 50 on 10/22/2004, with a win by submission over...(drumroll)... Georges St. Pierre. That is GSP's only loss on his 11-1 record. As for Penn, he has only one legitimate loss on his 10-2-1 record, a close decision loss to the aformentioned Ryoto "Lyoto" Machida (who TKO'd Rich Franklin) in March 2005 in K-1. Penn also has a bullshit majority decision loss to Jens Pulvier from UFC 35 (Jan 2002) which was a very unfair decision in most people's opinion. Penn also fought Caol Uno to a draw in their rematch in UFC 41, after Penn won their first fight by knockout in UFC 34.

I think this quote from Penn sums up my entire attitude about this fight:

“I saw him (St. Pierre) get down on his knees and he begged for the title shot,” said Penn, referring to St. Pierre’s public request for a title shot after his win over Sean Sherk last November. “Now he’s got it. I still believe I’m the champion – I don’t know where Hughes got his belt from – and this is my first title defense. I’m gonna make my second title defense against Matt Hughes, and then we’re gonna see where I take it from there."

"Yes, I am the real UFC welterweight champion. I feel as though this will be my first defense of the title. I don’t care what anybody says: Matt Hughes is just a paper champion. Hughes is not the true champion. I am. He was given that belt. I am going to annihilate St. Pierre and then for my second defense, I will allow Hughes the chance to fight me for my title.”

St. Pierre has only been to the third round twice in his career – in decision wins over Karo Parisyan and Jason Miller – but he’s never been in a three or five round war whereas Penn has been in several. St. Pierre might have a slight edge in physical strength, but Penn's superior BJJ skills, his superior striking, his superior stamina, and his experience will be the difference in this fight. Ultimately i'm going to watch for weigh-in on Friday before I load up on this fight, but assuming Penn shows up for weigh-in on weight and in shape, I will max this fight on Penn. Penn wins by submission in the third round.

Rizen still alive in the WPT

Local tournament phenom Eric "Rizen" Lynch is still alive in the World Poker Tour L.A. Poker Classic. Of course, Pauly is there, dropping a WPT live blog of the results. The tournament started with 692 entrants chasing a $2,391,550 prize pool. 379 players remain, and Rizen is in the middle of the pack sitting in 139th place with 39,250 in chips. By my calculations, tournament average is 36,517 so Rizen is at 107.5% of average.. They return at level 7, with 300-600 blinds with a 75 ante, at 3:30 this afternoon. Best of luck, Rizen. Put your luckbox in overdrive and bring this one home.

Now blogging live from the LA PokerClassic Commerce Casino

Update: spoke with the infamous Pauly this afternoon, and he is going to do his best to get some coverage of Rizen on his live updates. Play resumes at 3:30 PST, so look for updates tonight via Pauly's live blogging coverage. Unrelated Update: in a very impressive move, Party has confiscated (and correctly redistributed) the $140k illicitly won by JJProdigy (by entering two accounts in the 02/12/06 $500k Guaranteed $215 Buy-in Tournament). Details here. Backstory here.

A bundle of baseball metaphors

Saturday night, i went on a really nice SNG tear. Something like 35% ITM and 65% ROI across ~25 $33 SNGs with an occasional $55 mixed in. Including a very nice "home run" of four consecutive wins in a row during the series. Fresh off that bankroll boost, and fresh off conversations with a couple local poker semi-pros during a break at work today, I elected to parlay some of that winnings in to a shot at the Party Poker Super Monday tournament ($150+12).

This would be the highest online tournament buyin I'd ever played. But I was determined to bring my "A" Game, and not play as scared money. Perhaps too much so - in the first two orbits I lost half my chips. I called a preflop raise with unsuited connectors from the big blind, and then when the preflop raiser continuation bet the ace-high flop, I re-raised him. He hesitated but then called, and I was confident he didn't have an ace. The turn brought a fourth of my suit and gave me a gutshot, and when he checked to me I bet quite a bit as a semibluff. He instacalled, which suprised me big time. The river was a blank, and he checked and i checked behind - he'd hit a set on the turn, and when I missed my straight and flush draws on the river I lost a big chunk of chips. About three orbits later, I got all my money in the middle preflop with AKc (preflop raiser in EP, I re-raised in middle position, he pushed, I called) and found myself up against the hilton sisters (QQ). I caught two clubs on the flop, giving me a lot of outs, but i couldn't connect and I was out of my first Super tournament in roughtly 1001th place (out of 1550 entries). Swing and a miss...

However, after the Super Monday, I entered the Party $40k Guaranteed, the Full Tilt $16 Guaranteed, a Full Tilt $10+1 doublestack tournament, and another Party $20+2 MTT. The $40k Guaranteed was nothing special. However I made a serious run in the doublestack tournament before bleeding off all my chips in a series of bad calls, a couple bad beats, and a couple lost coinflips to finish just outside the money.

I then finished in the money in the other Party $20+2 MTT, losing with AQ vs someone's KTo once ITM. Nothing spectacular, just a contact single but it advances the runners.

I then stepped up to the plate and made a great run in the Full Tilt $16 Guaranteed. I'll pick up a recap starting on the bubble:

11:35pm - We've got 76 left of 787 entrants, and the top 72 pay. I'm currently 12th in chips, and have been floating between 15th and 7th for the last twenty minutes or so. I've got an aggressive bigstack seated two to my left, he's been floating in and out of the top five chipstacks for the last twenty minutes or so. He seems solid and aggressive, and we've traded a few shots but have lately been trying to stay out of each others way.

11:40pm - I see a free flop with two limpers from the big blind with Kh4s. The flop comes jack high with two hearts and gets checked around. The turn drops the ace of hearts, and the aggressive bigstack bets 2/3 the pot. Its folded around to me, and I make a really marginal call with the nut flush draw. I catch a heart on the turn, but stupidly check to the aggressor who smartly checks behind. I should have bet something small, maybe 2000 in to the 7000 pot. It would have been an obvious milking bet, but perhaps I could have gotten something out of him. Still a nice pot that jumps me back in to the top ten in chips.

11:43pm - the bubble bursts and all hell breaks loose. There are a lot of stacks of T3k - T4k and with blinds of 400/800 with 100 antes, people are correctly getting very aggressive. I call a small-stacks push from the big blind (getting 3-1) with K4o and end up splitting the pot against his KJh when the board pairs on the flop and drops perfect perfect K-A to give us both two pair with an ace kicker.

11:45pm - with a very short stack in the big blind and the bigstack in the small blind, I open limp JTo from the cutoff, planning to call a push from the small stack but "conspire" with the bigstacked small blind to eliminate him if possible. The flop comes down ace high with two clubs, and I bet the flop when checked to me and take it down. I jump over T31k, and am currently 13th in chips. We're down to 59 remaining.

11:50pm - AQo on the button. MP raises, a shortstack pushes behind him, and I push to isolate the shortstack. Folds to him, the shortstack has A9c, and I'm a big favorite. I catch an ace and a queen on the rainbow flop, and I drag the decent pot. JJ on the very next hand and I re-raise a MP raiser who quickly folds, and I jump over T42k, currently third in chips.

11:57pm - I fold pocket sevens to a MP push. Good thing cujofan's not around to berate me. Next hand I raise from MP with A4c, and fold to a re-raise from the (former) bigstack two to my left. Good thing too, as next hand I'm dealt two beautiful aces and get a raiser in front. I double his raise to 5k, he pushes, and he's got tens. I catch an ace on the flop and improve to a boat on the turn, and I jump over T50k and to third in chips.

12:01am - big blind has T5k and I push him in from the small blind with A7o. he instacalls with A8o, but we both end up splitting the pot.

12:06am - fold 26d in the big blind to two limpers and a preflop raise from the button. One of the limpers pushes to the raise, and the limper ends up outracing the button's 88 with AQo. After that hand our table gets balanced, and the chipleader drops in to my left. So I've got #1 in chips immediately to my left, and #2 in chips immediately to his left. Great placement.

12:12pm - i try a resteal from the big blind and it gets picked off. MP min-raises preflop and I call with 46h getting better than 3-1 thanks to the antes. I then lead the flop which is jack high with two diamonds, and he pushes. Ah well. Down to T45k and tenth in chips. Two hands later I open KJo from the CO its folded around, then get AJo the hand after and likewise drag the blinds + antes. Back over T52k.

12:15pm - pocket sevens UTG+1. I open limp, get one caller, and then take down the pot with a bet on the Jc6d4d flop.

12:26pm - we return from break, i'm seventh in chips with T52k. I fold KQd UTG+1 because I don't make it back from break in time and my hand is folded while I'm trying to type in a raise. Chiplead behind me pops it as soon as I fold, so I convince myself he had AA and it was a great laydown.

12:28pm - i weakly fold 26o in the small blind to the massive chipstack sitting to my left. Good news is the hand before the "second biggest stack" who was two to my left ended up doubling up someone three to my right, so the chips are starting to flow in the right direction.

12:30pm - I've been quite since the break, so I 3xBB from MP with K5h, and take down the blinds and antes.

12:32pm - folded to the small blind who completes against my big blind. I pop it up 4x with 22 and he folds. Next hand we consoldate to three tables (27 remaining) and I get moved to a much better spot on the new table. Third in chips (overall) is two to my right, and the rest of the table is nicely dispesed.

12:37pm - pure steal from the CO with J2s, the small blind pushes, I let some time tick and then fold. down to T42k, and 14th in chips. 20 players remaining, and we're now six-handed at my table. Time to rachet up the aggressiveness.

12:43pm - just a terrible run of cards while six handed. 26o, 35o, J2o, etc. Down to T36k and 15th place.

12:45pm - big stack open raises from the CO and I push from the small blind with A8o. he instacalls with JQo. Flop drops an eight but also a queen, and then a second queen on the river just adds insult to injury. I'm out in 20th place. I was 15th in chips when I pushed, and sitting 15th out of 20 remaining and getting my money in the middle as an aggressor in a 56%-43% coinflip was a solid play. I made the right read and the right move, gambling at the right time with +EV to try to hit a bigger payday. Double up there and I run to the final table pretty easily. Getting to the final three tables of a decent large-field tournament, we'll call that a tripple.

Friday $50+5 MTT cash

Took the day off work today, my first of the year. Spent most of the day just relaxing, trying to recover from the brutality of my last two months at work. But I did manage to get in about three hours of poker during the afternoon, including a money finish at a Party Poker $50+5 MTT with 426 entrants.

I've been keeping to my goal of playing a lot more multitable tournaments this year, hitting the Party $40k Guaranteed, the Full Tilt $16 Guaranteed, and other nightly $20-$50 tournaments on a pretty regular basis. After making my first final table of 2006 last friday, I was ready to make another big run exactly one week later.

I entered four MTTs this afternoon. A $30+3 and a $6k guaranteed $24+2 on Full Tilt, and a $30+3 and a $50+5 on Party Poker. I made it close to the money in the Full Tilt $30+3, busting about 20 spots from the money when I pushed AQ in to AK on an ace-high flop. The $24+2 and Party $30+3 were uneventful, but I made a great run in the $50+5, playing some excellent poker.

In the past year I feel I've evolved my tournament game from what I'd call "ABC tournament poker" in to my own style of play. I've learned a lot in the past year, from experience, from serious study, and in learning from superior players who've taken the time to mentor me. I've learned I'm capable of making sophisticated plays when i'm up against the right caliber of opponent. I'm capable of making tough laydowns. I'm capable of putting my opponents on hand ranges and in certain cases even on specific hands. I'm capable of extracting money from weaker hands. I'm capable of winning. I'm certainly not claiming to be God's gift to the MTT, i know i've certainly got a lot farther to go. I'm just saying my tournament game is exponentially better than it was this time last year. And several final tables and large cashes have come about as a result.

In the $50+5, i was sitting a little above the tournament average of T7500 chips as we entered 60 players remaining and started hand-for-hand. Top fifty spots paid. With blinds at 200/400 I raised to T1000 on a blind steal from the CO against a supremely short-stacked big blind, who pushed for T1300 total and I was forced to call and lost. A few hands later, the button raised to T1000 and I called T600 from the big blind with T6 suited. The flop came TQQ with two spades, and we both checked through. The turn was an offsuit nine, and i bet half the pot. the button just called. The river brought an offsuit eight, and we both checked - the button had built a straight with AJo and I was down to ~T4000 and in to survival mode, trying to just survive the bubble.

I fold my way through the next couple orbits, stealing the blinds once from the CO with K7s to hang right around T4k. We sat at 53 players remaining forever, but finally the bubble popped and we sprinted towards the finish. I entered ITM at T3890. People began dropping like flies - in the first orbit once ITM, we lost ten players and jumped to the second payout tier with only 40 remaining.

Got bumped tables, and stole the blinds once to climb over T5k with 35 players remaing. Folded pocket threes from the small blind to two preflop raises, which would have happened to improve to a full house and the best hand, but those are the breaks of shortstack poker.

I folded ATo under the gun, and it was a good laydown as QQ ended up doubling through a weaker ace behind me. A few hands later I pushed ATs over an early position limper and was called by KQo in late position. My hand held up, and I'd doubled up to over T10k. A few hands later I limped 66 UTG, and with a flop of 45Q I fired out a half pot bet and took it down to climb above T15k and right around tournament average with 26 players remaining. We lose another two players to drop to 24 remaining, and then we go on break. Average chipstack is T17750, i'm at T12680.

I fold another two orbits, and then face a preflop raise of T4k from a guy that i've barely got covered. I look down to find two beautiful kings and I push. he instacalls with aces, and i'm down to T130. Next hand i push my meager stack in with A3s, and I tripple up. Next hand I push my stack in with Kx and catch a king and tripple up again and I'm at ~T3k. A few hands later i'm in the big blind and face a preflop raise. I call all-in with T8o for the pot odds, and I'm lucky enough to be facing pocket sixes. I win the coinflip, and next thing you know, I'm back up to T8k

I slowly get blinded down to ~T5k when I finally make a stand, calling all-in with A7o over a early position aggressive player with a really weak/tight player (less than 4% VP$IP in the hands i'd seen him play) in the big blind for some nice dead money. My opponent turns over JQc and I'm happy to see i got my meager holdings in as a slight favorite in a coinflip. However my opponent catches a jack on the flop and I fail to hit my ace, and I bust out in 14th for a 230% ROI on my entry fee. Heck of a run from being at T130 after my kings went down in flames.

UFC 57: full card predictions

I've handicapped every fight on tomorrow's UFC card. Since this is a bit off topic for my poker blog, rather than take over the front page, I'm going to put the content in the comments, so click through for the comments if you're interested in reading them. You can also click over to my UFC 57 thread on Two + Two where they're probably easier to read.

Full Tilt MTT Final table

I've been having a terribly busy month at work, which should help to explain the dearth of content here on the Poker Blog. I've been really focusing on playing a lot more poker lately, albeit just a couple nights during the week. I'm not playing as much as I need to be, but I'm playing more than I was last month and that's a step in the right direction.

I've been back to the SNG grind, of course, playing my regular $30+3s and mixing in some $50+5s as well, to evaluate a move up to that level thanks to the bankroll boost of my last big tournament win.

But I'm also making the time for MTTs much more often, per my major poker New Year's Resolution. I've been hitting at least four MTTs a week for the past month, and got on to do more MTT damage tonight if I could.

By the time I hopped on the computer I'd missed the Party $40k Guaranteed (my favorite MTT of late) so I jumped in the first two MTTs that were starting next, regardless of buyin: a $33 MTT with 795 entrants on Party Poker and a $10+1 MTT with 356 entrants on Full Tilt.

I busted out of the Party MTT about two-thirds of the way through on some unspectacular hand, getting outkicked on top pair I think. But in the Full Tilt tournament tonight i made my first MTT final table of 2006.

I took over the chiplead when we were down to the final four tables, and held it for quite a while. battled back and forth between second and first for the duration, until we collapsed to the final table where i dropped in as third in chips:

lost the first couple pots i played, calling two raises with with pocket pairs and folding to post-flop aggression when I didn't hit a set or overpair. Then won a big pot with pocket nines to jump a little higher than I started, to T109k.

Lost a really good sized pot a few hands later, calling a preflop raise from the chipleader (whom i've got position on) with KQc. Flop comes king-high rainbow, he leads out and I raise. He quickly calls my raise. We both check the turn and then he pushes the river obviously having me covered as the chipleader. I make a really weak fold after thinking it over, because I really feel i have an edge on the table and I'm still in third place despite the weak play, albeit with only T65k in chips. UPDATE: posted this hand on the Two+Two forums if you want to see exactly how it played out. Sparked a pretty good discussion over there...

We lose our first player a few hands later, and we're down to eight. Later in that orbit, i find the short stack (T12k) in the big blind (T2k plus antes) against my small blind and push him all-in with T4o just looking to steal his big blind, assuming he will fold a really wide range looking to just hang on. However he instacalls with A5soooted which holds up unimproved, and i've just dropped to T37.5k, and fourth place in the chipcount. First and second are running away, both over 170k. We lose another player on the next hand, another two hands later, and another two more hands later, and we're down to the final five. I win the first hand we play five-handed with AJo and move to T45k, in fifth place in chips but only ~7k behind fourth place.

We run around a couple orbits, see a couple flops, no major confrontations. The big stacks are effectively whittling the other shortstack and I down, and i'm waiting for a big hand at this point with pretty much zero FE.

The next hand I play, UTG raises the standard 3xBB raise that the bigstacks have been using, and I look down to find AQo. Happily i push over the top, and the UTG bigstack calls me with KJo. The flop punishes me with AKJ, and I'm in trouble as a 37%-61% underdog with what was the best hand (63%-37%) preflop.

So after catching no help, I bust out in fifth place, paying roughly 25x my buyin, for a nice boost to the Full Tilt bankroll. Nothing major - nothing like the month Rizen is having, for example - but a good confidence builder with yet another MTT final table, and cheap MTT experience to boot.

And thanks to the MTT final table, plus 75% ITM / 104% ROI on the $33 SNGs I was playing in the background of the Tilt MTT, I ended up with a net of more than $100/hour played tonight (thanks PokerTracker for the stats), not bad at all for my bankroll level.