Performify's Pigskin Picks: Superbowl

I'm posting these the week early, so that people can know where I stand on the big game as early as possible. Sorry these are later than usual, but a close friend got engaged on Friday and I was hosting a surprise party for him and was busy all day.

RESULTS and YTD SUMMARY
Postseason Picks Summary:
5-5 ATS, 6-4 SU. 4-1 on called O/U.
2-1 on posteason Game of the Week. 2-1 on postseason Tease of the Week.
Postseason Results: +4.3065 units

Final NFL regular season record: 10-7 on Game of the Week, +21.5 units as posted
Final NFL regular season record: 33-35 overall, +14.5 units for the year on all posted plays.

Combined results:
12-8 (60%) on Game of the Week, +28.14 units as posted
38-40 ATS overall, +18.8065 units NFL total YTD.

Seattle +3.5 over Pittsburgh Game of the week (duh).

My system likes this game, not quite enough to designate it as a full game of the week (if it were the regular season and other games were avaialble) but it earns the honorary moniker as the only game this week.

I believe Seattle has the offensive edge in this game, with a certain edge at running back and an edge on the offensive line. Quarterback, wide recievers and coaching matchups are very even. Despite how well Seattle has been playing on defense lately, Pittsburgh has a significant edge on the defensive side of the ball, and on special teams.

My system predicts this game at 24-21 Pittsburgh for the win but the Seattle cover. So the line at +3.5 or higher is critical. I recommend placing your bet on Seattle later in the week: the money is more heavily on Pittsburgh as the favorite, so the line should continue to move favoribly towards our side. If you have the opportunity to lock it in at +4.5 or better, go ahead and lock. Its not really likely to move much beyond 4 or 4.5. I believe that sharp money is going to move on Seattle late in the week, so I wouldn't wait until Sunday morning to lock it in: if the smart money does move in on Seattle late, the line could shift against us. I'd recommend monitoring this week and placing your bets in the middle of the week. I will be placing five units on Seattle and will probably place the bet on Wednesday or Thursday.

No real detailed writeup. You don't need it: espn.com, usatoday.com, cnnsi.com, etc etc - the game's covered in depth by the media. My system ranks the teams very even and doesn't see an edge in the "intangibles" for either team. So in what we predict to be a close game, we'll take the points.

Plays of the week:

Seattle +4: five units. Game of the week.

Seattle/Pittsburgh under 47: one unit.

Tease of the week: Seattle +10.5, Under 54: one unit. This is not a significantly +EV tease but posted for those who like to play the teasers.

Performify's "Top Ten Albums of 2005"

Every year I post my top ten albums of the year. Last year I guest posted them on Cujofan's blog, here, but this year they're getting posted right here. So without further ado, my top ten albums of 2005, in no particular order:

my Top Ten Albums of 2005

Sufjan Stevens: Come On Feel the Illinois!

Nine Inch Nails: With Teeth

Queens of the Stone Age: Lullabies to Paralyze

Fiona Apple: Extraordinary Machine

Moby: Hotel

Beck: Guero

The White Stripes: Get Behind Me Satan

Gorillaz: Demon Days

The Decemberists: Picaresque

Autolux: Future Perfect

Honorable mentions:
Surprise of the year:

Bright Eyes I'm Wide Awake, It's Morning

Soundtrack of the year:

Six Feet Under, Vol 2: Everything Ends

Album I really wanted to like more:

Audioslave Out of Exile

Just missed the cut:

Ben Folds Songs For Silverman

Louis XIV The Best Little Secrets Are Kept

Weezer Make Believe

Top albums from 2004 i'm still listening to regularly:

Elliot Smith from a basement on the hill

Handsome Boy Modeling School White People

Chevelle This Type Of Thinking Could Do Us In

Performify's Pigskin Picks: Championship Round

Last week delivered another solid week of picks, with wins on the Game of the Week and Tease of the Week to continue the winning results that we've been riding the past several weeks. I ended up having a little too much in teasers involving Chicago which weren't really that +EV (not crossing both the seven and the three, which are cardinal rules for getting +EV from a teaser which I was happy to ignore) which cut in to the profits for the weekend. Winning GotW and TotW should have resulted in a much larger profit for the week, even with missing on the Chicago game, but I ended up violating a system rule and having as much on the Chicago game teasers as I did on the Tease of the Week, which then negated much of the week's profits when Chicago went down in flames. But still, +2.9 units transacted for the weekend on posted picks which brings the postseason picks results to +11.0165 units and the combined NFL season picks total to +25.5165 units.

But even moreso than delivering solid results, last week's games were exciting to watch as a fan and featured some great matchups and great finishes. This week, I'm not really pleased with the games as a fan or as a capper. I believe there's some value to be found, but I will not be moving a ton of units on the NFL this week. If you're looking for serious action this week, I believe the best bet this weekend is in boxing with Eric Morales over Manny Pacquiao on Saturday night, as I discuss on Two+Two.

RESULTS and YTD SUMMARY
Last week: 2-2 picks and ATS, 3-0 over/under. Win on Game of the Week, win on Tease of the Week.

Postseason Picks Summary:
4-4 ATS, 5-3 SU. 3-0 on called O/U.
2-0 on posteason Game of the Week. 2-0 on postseason Tease of the Week.
Postseason Results: +11.0165 units

Final NFL regular season record: 10-7 on Game of the Week, +21.5 units as posted
Final NFL regular season record: 33-35 overall, +14.5 units for the year on all posted plays.

Combined results: 12-7 (63%) on Game of the Week, +31.5 units as posted 37-39 ATS overall, +25.5165 units NFL total YTD.

that out of the way, on to the picks:

Pittsburgh Steelers (+3) at Denver Broncos O/U: 41
The current teams are quite similar. Both have strong running games and strong defenses. The Steelers rely on the inside-outside tandem of Bettis and Fast Willie Parker, and the Broncos with Mike Anderson and Tatum Bell. However, both teams defend the run well and have fast, athletic linebackers. Denver is the NFL's #5 offense, 2nd in rushing and 18th in passing. Denver's defense is ranked #15 overall, 2nd at stopping the run and a dismal 29th against the pass. Pittsburgh is tied as the 15th overall offense, 5th in rushing and 24th in passing. The Blittzburgh defense is 4th overall, 3rd against the rush and 16th against the pass. Both teams are exceedingly equal in scoring: Denver scored 24.7 points per game in the regular season and Pittsburgh averaged 24.3 points. Each team allowed 16.1 points per game.

The team who wins will be the one who can stop the run and pressure the quarterback in to making mistakes. Denver 9-0 at home this season, has a a better shut-down corner in Champ Bailey (one key interception could be the difference in the game). The Steelers are playing what amounts to their sixth playoff game in a row, and their third in a row on the road. Pittsburgh Coach Bill Cowher is 1-4 in AFC Championship Games. The Broncos are 4-0 in AFC Championship Games played in Denver and are riding an 11-game home winning streak No #6 seed has ever reached the Super Bowl since the NFL went to its current playoff system in 1990. Asking for seven straight wins, including three consecutive on the road, is just too much despite the talent of this team and its head coach.

Prediction: Broncos 24, Steelers 14, finishes under 41. Game of the Week.


Carolina Panthers (+3.5) at Seattle Seahawks O/U: 41
Sean Alexander has practiced all week and will start for Seattle. We won't know how capable he'll be once he starts taking hits, but I'm operating under the assumption he's going to be fine, and if not Seattle proved they could win without him last week. Even if Alexander isn't 100% or even 80%, the Seahawks can get production from Maurice Morris and Mack Strong.

The Panthers' DeShaun Foster broke his ankle last week and will be replaced by fullback Nick Goings. Goings is a solid running back, he did rush for 821 yards last season in seven games. But he's still a little bit of a dropoff and more importantly leaves the Panthers hurting for depth at running back. Panthers star defensive end Julius Peppers is listed as day-to-day with a shoulder injury and is not expected to be anywhere near 100% if he does play. He didn't practice all week. Carolina will miss him tremendously. Seattle loves to run at the defensive ends, especially left behind Pro Bowl and All Pro LT Walter Jones and LG Steve Hutchinson.

To succeed, Seattle will need to generate pressure on Panthers QB Jake Delhomme, and will need to double, tripple or quadruple team Steve Smith. I suggest putting six defensive backs on him, two to front him, two behind him, one in tight man, and one playing 15 yards off. Carolina will still find some way to get him the ball.

The Seahawks allowed just 59 rushing yards last weekend. If the Seahawks can shut down the run again, Seattle should be able to create third-and-long situations (by stopping the run on first and second downs), and then if they can bring enough pressure on Delhomme on third downs and blanket Steve Smith at the same time, they'll be pretty successful.

Matchup-wise, Carolina brings in the #22 overall offense, #19 rushing and #17 passing. Carolina is of course the #3 overall defense, #4 in stopping the run and #9 in stopping the pass. Seattle brings in the NFL's #2 offense, #3 in rushing and #13 passing. Seattle's defense is tied for 16th overall, and is #5 against the rush but only #25 against the pass.

Qwest Field is one of the toughest places to play at in the NFL, so homefield advantage is huge here: opponents committed a league-high 24 false starts at Qwest Field this season. Carolina is trying to do something no one else has done in NFL history: win five consecutive postseason road games. And while Carolina has proven that they're great on the road in the post-season, Seattle is 22-3 record at home since Week 16 of the 2002 season including 9-0 at home this year. This is also a public perception play, with Wagerline listing the game at 60% Carolina 40% Seattle.

Prediction: Seattle 28, Carolina 24. Game finishes over.

Tease of the Week: Steelers +10, Panthers +10.5
Requires laying the larger juice for the seven-point teaser, but I believe there's a lot of value in moving these games across the 3 (Steelers), 7 (both), and win/tie on the 10. I believe both of this weekend's games should be close, and I feel this is a good middling hedge which has a great opportunity to payout both directions if the games are close as predicted.



Plays for the week, for the record:
Denver -3 (-112) : three units. Game of the week.
Seattle -3.5 (+105) : one unit.
Tease: Steelers +10, Panthers +10.5: to win three units.
Tease: Pitt/Denver Under 48, Carolina/Seattle Over 36.5, to win one unit.

Also don't forget to click over to Sportsbookpal.com and make your third round picks in their free NFL Playoff Picks Contest.

Thursday night tournament rounds

Hadn't played any serious online tournament poker in a while (i.e. a full night of nothing but tournaments). And one of my poker resolutions for the year is to focus a lot more on the many large-field MTTs where I feel my game is the sharpest. So I made it a point to hit the Full Tilt $15k Guaranteed and the $40k Guaranteed on Party tonight, as well as grinding through a bundle of SNGs in the background.

I was in great shape in the Full Tilt $15k Guaranteed, ran through about half the field, got my money in the middle preflop in a three-way battle holding KK against A9o and 88, and didn't make it out of that hand alive. Had I 3x'd up there I would have been in great shape to make a deep run, I felt. Before i got bounced I stopped by the TV table to say "hi" to Drizz who was also in the tournament and appeared to be doing a good job running over his table at the time. He was a little more than double the average when I busted, so I'm hoping he finished strong.

I finished pretty well in the Party $40k, with yet another cash there at 109th place for double my entry fee. I was 7th in chips with approximately 400 people remaining (top 220 paid) but ran in to three different full houses between there and bursting the bubble for the money (allowing two of the three to double through me) and entered the money about 10% above average with around T11k. Donked off more chips with some sub-par plays and some laggy plays, and ended up hanging around half the average with around T8k - T9k for most of the 500/1000 and 750/1500 blind levels. Ended up getting my money in the middle with AKo, against 44 and AJo, in great shape to tripple up and catch some serious breathing room. It was not meant to be as I ended up having the third best hand of the bunch when the AJax caught a jack on the flop and I didn't improve at all. For playing sleep-deprived laggy donkey poker, I'm still ok with taking it this far for the cash.

Did OK but not great in the SNGs in the background while playing the two tournaments. I've been on a SNG downswing for the past several weeks, just can't seem to convert. Delivered 30% ITM for the night with ten played, but just not enough firsts or seconds to be profitable. Best SNG finish of the night was a second place in a Full Tilt $30+3, where I came in to heads up as a 2-1 dog, came back to take the chip lead briefly, but wasn't able to close it out, thanks to pushing top pair top kicker in to my opponent's made nut flush. I thought i was doing a good job representing the flush draw all along and then made the move at the pot when the flush card hit the river, thinking even if he did call my TPTK had a high probability of being the best hand because I really didn't put him on a flush the way he played it.

I think I'm a little out of practice - its been fun jamming around on Full Tilt's Razz tables and their 9-person 1500 chip SNGs for the past month or so, but its certainly allowed my finely-honed 800-chip Party SNG skills to acquire a little bit of rust. And its hurt the few forrays i've made into 1000-chip land. Oh well - more poker this weekend I'm sure. NFL picks tomorrow, hopefully by noon.

One more thing: I threw a Free Ipod MP3 Player link up in the adversiting section. I hate to spam people with this kind of stuff, but this deal is actually legit (two of my co-workers have recieved free stuff through this company by completing their offer, one of the coworkers actually getting both a free iPod and a free monitor by completing two similar but separate offers from the same company). Anyways, I have an iPod mini but really want a larger iPod. I signed up for the free iPods deal a while back and completed my portion of the offer, but never got enough signups under me to qualify for my free product, so I figured I'd pimp it here for a little bit and see if I could get the remaining few signups I need to qualify.

If you're not familiar with the offer, this company gets paid by various service providors to sign people up for their services. they make enough money signing you up in referral fees that they can pay out these free iPods. It is completely legit, but here's the exact deal: you have to sign up, complete one of their offers (for example, when I did it I signed up for a free trial of AOL HighSpeed, which I just had to call and cancel during the trial period so it didn't cost me anything but a few minutes of my time), and then get five people to sign up under you AND they have to complete an offer too. Then you get a free iPod. So anyways, if you want a shiny new iPod to listen to while you're grinding away at the poker tables, consider signing up for a Free Ipod MP3 Player through my link there.

Poker Night + UFC on 02/04, plus Morales vs Pacquiao

Saturday, February 4th is UFC 57: Liddell vs Couture 3. We'll be PPV'ing and putting it up on the big screen. And just like with the last UFC, we'll be playing poker before hand. So if you're in or around the KC area on 02/04 and want an invite,either drop me an email or click over to KCPoker for more details.

As discussed over here, I've got a unit riding on Randy Couture as a 2:1 underdog. I think he's got a great chance to win this fight assuming he can take it to the ground.

I'm also having people over for Morales vs Pacquiao 2 this weekend. I've got quite a bit on Morales to win and a little juicer on Morales by Decision. As discussed over here, I believe this is a very good play, and as a big boxing fan I'm very much looking forward to the fight this weekend.

Performify's Pigskin Picks: Divisional Round

Last week I was right on with both of my "significant" picks and missed on both of my "i'm not so sure" picks for a great weekend. This week the big story is the fact that the home team in this round is 40-10 (80%) since the playoffs were expanded to 12 teams in 1990. The home teams went 4-0 SU in 2004 but only 2-2 in 2003. Will that strong trend continue? I think so - i expect to see one road upset at most, and I believe even one upset is not a high probability.

Results from the wildcard round:
2-2 ATS, 3-1 SU. 1-0 on Game of the Week. 1-0 on postseason teasers. Postseason Results: +8.1165 units

Final NFL regular season record: 10-7 on Game of the Week, +21.5 units as posted
Final NFL regular season record: 33-35 overall, +14.5 units for the year on all posted plays.

Washington Redskins (+9.5) at Seattle Seahawks (O/U: 41)
The Redskins have won six games in a row (including last week's victory over Tampa Bay in the first wildcard round). Meanwhile Seattle had won 11 consecutive games before losing a meaningless game to Green Bay in the regular-season finale. Washington feature's one of the NFL's best defenses (#9 overall, #13 v. rush #10 v. pass). Washington put up decent offensive numbers during the year, finishing 11th in total offense (7th in rushing) but their offense has been anemic since Portis got banged up and hasn't been running at 100%. Seattle brings in a decent defense (tied for #16 overall, #5 v. rush but only #25 v. pass). However the Seattle defense actually allowed fewer points per game than the Redskins (16.9 ppg compared to 18.3 ppg).

Seattle represents a modern, truly balanced NFL team. They have a strong rushing attack, a solid passing attack, and a proficient defense. Not a lot of people know that Seattle's front four (led by ends Grant Wistrom and Bryce Fisher) had an NFL-best 50 sacks: out-sacking the much more heralded Chicago and Carolina front fours. Look for Seattle to run the ball to the right all day: Redskins defensive end Renaldo Wynn is out (broke his forearm last week) and will be replaced by Demetric Evans. Evans is an OK end but lacks the impact of Wynn. Washington does have solid run-stopping linebackers who attack the line of scrimmage.

The biggest defensive weakness for the Redskins is their secondary: Cornerback Shawn Springs was unable to play last week (groin injury), but will play Saturday but will likely not be at 100%. Rookie cornerback Carlos Rogers and nickel back Walt Harris are dinged up, too. Seattle of course has a potent passing attack with Engram, Jackson and Jurevicius, and they should have a big game against the damaged Washington secondary. The balanced Seattle offense will try to get the passing game active to keep Washington from being able to over-commit to the run. On defense, Seattle returns both starting cornerbacks (Marcus Trufant and Andre Dyson) from injuries: both will play but neither will be 100%. Seattle's defense will depend on getting pressure on Redskins QB Mark Brunell to keep the heat off the Seahawks' secondary.

Seattle is clearly the better, more balanced team here. I don't believe there is any way that Washington can win this game outright, so the question is can they cover the large spread. With their top-ranked rushing defense I believe Seattle can short-circut the Washington offense, loading up against the run and forcing Washington to go to the air. The Redskins run max protect blocking schemes, so the game will ultimately come down to how long the banged-up Seattle corners can hang with Santana Moss: can they cover him long enough for the blitz to pressure Brunell, or will they get burned for a couple big TDs?

Prediction: Seattle 24, Washington 14. Seattle covers the -9.5. Game goes under. Good game to tease Seattle and the Under, but you've got to lay the extra juice to take this down to -3 or -2.5 to make it worthwhile.

New England Patriots (+3) at Denver Broncos (O/U: 44)
The big story in this matchup, besides watching the general public jumping on the Patriots bandwagon en masse, is the late-season resurgence of the Patriots defense. In the first eight games of the season, New England allowed 128.8 yards per game. However, since the return of DE Richard Seymour, linebacker Tedy Bruschi and other notables on New England`s defense, the Patriots have sliced that number in half. In the second half of the season, New England has held its opponents to just 68.6 yards on the ground – which the best of any team in the second half of the season. However, take a look at who the Patriots got to beat up on in that second half of the season: the New York Jets (twice), the Miami Dolphins, and the Buffalo Bills. Those teams finished 31st, 20th and 12th respectively in rushing offense. So while you've seen a strong resurgence in the Patriots defense, and they're certainly improved with the return of some of their starters, they're still not that impressive.

Denver features a strong offense (#5 overall) powered by a potent running attack (#2 in the NFL behind the Falcons) and a mediocre passing game (ranked 18th in the NFL) designed to protect the ball. Denver brings in the #2 NFL's rushing defense but only the #29 passing defense (ranked #15th overall). New England ended the season #7 in total offense, #24 rushing and #2 passing. On defense the patriots are only #26 overall (#8 vs rush, #31 vs pass) despite their late-season defensive success.

Denver, Broncos QB Jake Plummer in particular, has protected the ball all season. The Broncos turned the ball over an NFL-low 16 times this year. The Patriots have feasted on - or maybe depended upon - turnovers in their impressive postseason streak: They are plus-21 in turnover margin in their 10-game postseason winning streak. Meanwhile the Pats fumbled the ball four times last week (but recovered them all themselves).

While New England has a very impressive passing game, their running game is already anemic and faces one of the best rush defenses in the NFL. In return, the Pats run defense looks good on paper but is over-rated due to their late-season matchups with weak rushing teams. Denver will be able to run nickle and even dime defense schemes to help limit the New England passing attack, especially if they can build an early lead.

I think the linesmakers are loving this game. My system shows Denver winning this game easily, but the linesmakers knew they could hang Denver -3 and people would just pound the Patroits getting the points. This game is also a fade-the-public-perception play, with Wagerline listing the game 65%-35% for the Pats, and Sportsbook.com shows a strong disparity in the money distribution there.

Prediction: Denver 27, New England 17. Game of the Week. No over/under play.

Pittsburgh Steelers (+9½) at Indianapolis Colts (O/U: 47.5)
I don't have a ton of insight to this game, and my system hates either side. So i'm not going to spend much time on the writeup.

Indy is the NFL's #3 offense, #16 rushing and #3 in passing. They have a speedy, impressive defense but are ranked in the middle of the pack at #11 overall, #16 vs rush and #15 vs pass. Pittsburgh has the NFL's #15 offense (tied with Jacksonville) and is strongly focused on the running game: #5 in rushing but #24 in passing. Pittsburgh has a strong defense, #4 overall with #3 vs the run and #16 vs the pass. The Colts are 1-5 overall against Pittsburgh coach Bill Cowher, but their win came in this year's regular-season meeting at the RCA Dome, in which the Colts embarrassed the Steelers 26-7 in Indianapolis on Monday night in Week 12.

The Steelers will blitz frequently to try to pressure Manning in to poor throws and try to force turnovers. The Steelers will try to pound the ball on the ground to wear down the clock, while the Colts will try to stuff the run and force Pitt QB Ben Roethlisberger to the air. My system doesn't like either side of this matchup, but I'm going with the Colts. There appears to be a surprising amount of money taking the points: Wagerline shows 56%-44% for Pitt and the points. I don't think many people believe the Steelers can win, but they believe that the spread is too wide. I'm sorry, I just don't see this game being that close: with a strong, quick and balanced defense facing a one-dimensional offense, I think Indy will be able to stuff the run, build an early lead and then force the Steelers to the air for the rest of the game. The Colts were 7-1 this season at home, and with the advantage of home field + the week off, I think they roll easily.

Prediction: Colts 28, Steelers 17. Indy opens 21-7 but then lets the Steelers back in a little late. Predicted to finish under.

Carolina Panthers (+2.5) at Chicago Bears (O/U: 30)
This should be the best game of the weekend. #2 defense (Chicago) against #3 defense in Carolina. Strong rushing attack in Chicago against the NFL's 4th ranked rush defense. Strong passing threat in standout Carolina WR Steve Smith, against the fearsome Chicago pass defense (#5 in the NFL). The triumphant return of Bears QB Rex Grossman versus the playoff-tested Jake Delhomme. Freezing temperatures and the wind off Lake Michigan versus the warm-weather Panthers.

The money has been hammering down on Carolina this week, driving the line down from the open of Carolina +3 to the current Carolina +2.5 in most places. The under has also been bet down, it opened at a ridiculously low 31 and then got dropped down another point by the heavy action.

The Panthers are playing very well lately, are playoff tested (they were in the Superbowl only two years ago after all) and play very well on the road. But Carolina's recent success has come on the strength of establishing the run, and they're not going to be able to establish the run against the tenacious Chicago defense. In the last meeting in Chicago, the Panthers were held to just 55 yards on the ground and lost 13-3. When the Bears shut down the Carolina running game, they were able to relentlessly blitz Delhomme, and sacked him eight times in the game. Chicago will come out and look to do the exact same thing here: they can create pressure with only four and five pass rushers and will be able to drop the rest back in coverage. I suggest putting all four d-backs on Steve Smith and letting Urlacher cover the rest of the field.

I think this line is pretty aptly set: my system strongly predicts Chicago -3 in this game, and with the line getting hammered down to Chicago -2.5 I think its a valuable play. If you're already on Carolina +3 I don't think you're in bad shape, and some people were able to secure (or buy up to) Carolina +3.5 which I think has good value as well. This is also a public perception play: the game is 63%-37% on Wagerline and significantly one-sided on Carolina on Sportsbook.com. Ultimately though, with Carolina's edge in forcing turnovers and the inexperienced QB factor of Grossman, I can't recommend this as a very strong play.

Prediction: Chicago 17, Carolina 14.

Tease of the Week: Seattle -2.5 Under 48
Requires laying the larger juice for the seven-point teaser, but moving this game inside the three and under 48 is a great place to be, in my opinion. Expected rain and winds should keep the total down, and Seattle by a fieldgoal is a close to a "lock" as you can get in my opinion.

Plays for the week, for the record:

Seattle -9.5 (-110) : half unit
Denver -3 (-112) : five units
Colts -10 (+105) : half unit
Bears -2.5 (-110 : two units
Tease: Seattle -2.5 Under 48 : 3 units risked to win 2.5 units
Tease: Chicago +4 Seattle -2.5 : to win three units

Don't forget to click over to Sportsbookpal.com and make your second round picks in their free NFL Playoff Picks Contest. If you missed week one, don't worry: you'll start week two with a zero balance which puts you ahead of a significant portion of the field - myself included, because I made my selections prior to handicapping my games. Had you followed my picks last week you'd be in the positive in the contest even though I'm not.

The Chronic - what? - cals

Quite possilby the funniest SNL bit in years: "Lazy Sunday" (google video link).

Poker-wise, I assume everyone saw the great WSOP news, that they're adding a $50k buyin HORSE event to the WSOP. Great news, something that will really crown the best all-around player (and not just NLHE).

Personally, lately i've been playing Razz, single table SNGs, and the occasional MTT on Full Tilt via my powerbook. I'm at lower limits than what i was playing on Party, because most of my bankroll is still in Party, but I'm having a lot of fun on Full Tilt. I'm not sold on the nine-person SNGs yet but the play looks just as fishy as Party. I'm not abandoning Party by any means, it remains my primary site. Just having a good time on a site that I hadn't previously frequented, and enjoying the ability to play from my mac immensely.

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Update: In NFL betting news, the Chicago line just dropped to -2.5 -113 on Pinnacle and a couple other places. I dropped an immediate tease on Chicago +3.5 Seattle -3, and placed a unit on Chicago -2.5 straight. I'll be watching this carefully, I think Chicago will have decent value here.

In other NFL news, one of the people who signed up for the SportsbookPal.com free NFL playoff contest dropped me a quick note to let me know that he's in second place, only $10 behind the leader. When I went over to check it out, I also noticed the contest is open for new signups for week two of the playoffs, and you'll start at $0 which is better than most of the rest of the field. So click over to SportsbookPal.com and sign up for their free NFL playoff contest. Free money is +EV.

Performify's Pigskin Picks: Wildcard Round

Throughout the post season, I'll be posting picks (both straight up and ATS) and analysis for every postseason NFL game. While I'll be posting predictions for all the games, that doesn't necessarily mean I'll be playing them all: so I'll also be posting whatever plays I'm actually making.

Also, if you didn't see my previous post: click over to Sportsbookpal.com and sign up for their free NFL Playoff Picks Contest - free entry and free money if you finish in the top three in postseason picks. Even if you don't know what you're doing: you can't argue with a couple seconds of randomly entering picks (or following mine, for example) for a free shot at some cash.

With that being said, lets run through analysis on this week's games in order of occurrence:

For those that missed it, my regular season record:
Final NFL regular season record: 10-7 on Game of the Week, +21.5 units as posted
Final NFL regular season record: 33-35 overall, +14.5 units for the year on all posted plays.

Washington Redskins (+2.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Over/Under: 37)
I believe this is the closest game to call this weekend. . You've got a matchup of two top defenses, Tampa Bay being #1 in the NFL (#6 against the pass and the run) and Washington sitting at #9 overall, #13 rush and #10 pass. The teams match up well: two top defenses (edge to Tampa), two good coaches (edge to Gibbs @ Washington over Gruden @ Tampa), two good running backs (Portis and Cadillac, slight edge to Portis), two long ball threats (Moss and Galloway, edge for Moss), and two excellent defensive coordinators (Gregg Williams for Washington and Monte Kiffin for Tampa, coinflip).

However the Redskins do have the edge at quarterback: Brunells has a sore knee and is clearly past his prime, but he's still got an edge on rookie Chris Simms. The Redskins also have a veteran offensive line, compared to Tampa who simply doesn't. Washington is also riding a five game winning (and covering) streak, compared to a two-game win streak for Tampa.

That being said, I'm going with Tampa Bay here in a narrow victory. Simms may be a rookie but he's performed adequately this season, with only two interceptions in his last 184 passes. Washington is on a very hot streak, but I believe the streak they needed just to make the playoffs may have exhausted the team. Its certainly banged up their secondary: both starting Redskins corners are injured, veteran Shawn Springs is not expected to play, rookie starting CB Carlos Rogers is expected to play but will not be 100% if he does. I think that's enough of an edge to push this game to Tampa. If Tampa's offensive line can pick up the blitz, the holes at corner should allow Simms to have success throwing the ball. The Bucs are also 6-0 when Cadillac gets 100+ on the ground, and if they can get over 100 on the ground I expect that trend to continue here.

Prediction: Tampa Bay 20, Washington 17.

Jacksonville Jaguars (+8) at New England Patriots (Over/Under: 37)
Jacksonville is the worst twelve win team in NFL history. The Jaguars had the fortune of going 9-1 against teams with losing records, were 3-3 against winning teams, and beat just one winning team on the road this year: a Pittsburgh team missing Ben Roethlisberger and Hines Ward. So since week two, the Jags have only beaten one winning team whose QB was healthy at the time. The Jags also trailed in eight of their twelve wins. Jags QB Byron Leftwich is expected to make his return, in first start since being injured Nov. 27. Question is how rusty will he be, having missed the last six games. New England also has the obvious weather advantage, with a warm-weather team playing in Foxboro in January.

Playoff experience is an obvious advantage. Of the 53 players on the New England Patriots' roster, 36 own Super Bowl rings and 30 have two or more. Whereas the Jaguars have one player, Jimmy Smith, who owns a Super Bowl ring and one player, Reggie Hayward, who was in the playoffs last year. And of course, Pats coach Bill Belichick will be coaching his 12th playoff game ( in which he's 9-0 with the Patriots). Jaguars coach Jack Del Rio will be coaching his first playoff game.

There's little question that the Patriots will win this game. The big question is, can they cover more than a touchdown? Between the possibility of a backdoor cover with a solid Jacksonville passing attack, the possibility of a close low-scoring game due to inclement weather, and the fact that everyone on the planet seems to love the Patriots here... its still really close I think. I think this game has tremendous value in a teaser, taking the Patriots down to -1 (crossing -7 and -3). Straight up, I think its almost too close to call, but I'm going to go with the Jags covering but the Pats winning.

Prediction: New England 24, Jacksonville 17. If its inclement weather at kickoff, drop the final to 21-14.

Carolina Panthers (+2.5) at New York Football Giants (Over/Under: 43.5)
This game is a complete contrast in football teams: the Giants bring in a top-tier offense (#4 in the NFL, #6 vs rush #11 vs pass) and a mediocre defense (#24 overall, #12 rush #27 pass) and the Panthers bring in a top tier defense (#3 in the NFL, #4 rush #9 pass) and a mediocre offense (#22 overall, #19 rush #17 pass). New York is 8-1 at home this season, but faces a tough test in Carolina.

The Giants have ridden Tiki Barber to success this season, but the Panthers have done well this season in shutting down top-tier RBs. The Panthers have likewise ridden their offensive star Steve Smith this season, but here's the major difference and the reason this game is going this way: no one has been able to stop Steve Smith (except Steve Smith getting himself tossed, but that's another story). The Panthers can counter Tiki: load the line, put eight men in the box to stop the run. However the Panthers don't need to pass blitz: like Chicago they've had a lot of success creating pressure with their front four and letting their linebackers defend the pass. So expect a safety walked up but not always blitzing and linebackers plugging gaps but not blitzing often, all spelling a long day for Tiki Barber.

The Panthers will force this game on the shoulders of Eli Manning, and he's just not ready for it. More importantly the Giants mediocre defense won't be enough to stop Steve Smith: even in double coverage Carolina has gotten him free all season with crossing routes and screens. The Giants defense is going to be in trouble all game: they've got banged up linebackers and will be forced to cover Smith with rookie CB Corey Webster and probably have to double-team with a safety. With the Linebacker injuries and assuming a safety is often drawn to Smith, Foster should have a big game rushing right up the middle of the weak Giants defense.

Carolina certainly has the playoff edge experience. Most of this current Panthers team was part of Carolina's run to the Super Bowl two seasons ago and has an understanding of what it takes to win in the playoffs. The Giants haven't been to the postseason since 2002, and many of the players, most notably and most obviously rookie QB Eli Manning, will be experiencing the postseason for the first time.

Prediction: 24-21 Carolina in the upset and outright win.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) at Cincinnati Bengals (Over/Under: 46.5)
The biggest story of this matchup is that the road team is the favorite over the home division winner. Cincinnati beat the Steelers 38-31 in Pittsburgh on Dec. 4, and Cincinnati won the AFC North over the Steelers. However, the Steelers finished with the same record as the Bengals (11-5) by winning their last four games, and also beat the Bengals 27-13 in Cincinnati in week six. On the other side of the field, Cincinnati finished flat by losing their last two games. They lost 37-27 to Buffalo on Christmas Eve and then played mostly backups in getting dominated 37-3 at Kansas City.

This game is going to be a contrast in styles: the pass-first offense of the Bengals against the run-heavy Steelers. Make no mistake, Pittsburgh will be run-first here. In Week 6, the Steelers ran for 221 yards in Cincinnati (season high for the team). In their second meeting, which they lost, the Steelers went pass-heavy and managed only 95 yards in a game that turned in to an offensive shootout. The Steelers have a significant edge defensively (#4 overall, #16 vs the pass), and especially against the run (#3 in the NFL). The Bengals finished the season 28th in the NFL in defense, #20 vs. the run and #26 vs the pass. However, the Bengals do lead the NFL in turnovers (+25 on the season) but Pittsburgh is a respectable +7. Cincy has struggled against the run all season (giving up more than 200 yards twice, to the Steelers and the Chiefs). Assuming the Steelers indeed pound the ball on the ground they should be able to control the tempo and in fact control the game. Defensively the Steelers will be blitz-heavy to keep pressure on Palmer, especially blitzing the left side (attacking Cincy right tackle Willie Anderson and right guard Bobbie Williams, both of whom are weak against the pass rush). The wildcard factor in this game is going to be the turnovers: both of these teams have aggressive defenses that create turnovers, and whichever team can't protect the ball is going to win this game.

Playoff experience is also a factor here. The Steelers have 42 players on their 53-man roster with playoff experience, 40 of them with the Steelers. The Bengals have 13 players with playoff experience, none with the Bengals. The Bengals are in the playoffs for the first time since 1990. Whereas the Steelers are in the playoffs for the 10th time since 1992, when Bill Cowher took over as coach.

Pitt QB Ben Roethlisberger is 3-1 as a starter against Cincinnati. On the other side, Palmer is fighting a pulled groin muscle, and has been sloppy in the past month with five interceptions in his last four games and a career-low 93 yards passing against the Cleveland four weeks ago. With Bill Cowher as their coach since 1992, the Steelers are 20-8 against the Bengals, 11-3 in Cincinnati. However, the Steelers are 0-3 on the road in the playoffs under Bill Cowher. But despite that record, Pittsburgh is 13-3 on the road the past two seasons and 6-2 this year. This is a team that knows how to win on the road, and everyone in the organization knows that they've come up short on the road in the playoffs. And while they've lost on the road in the playoffs, they have played well in those losses. Two of their three road losses came in overtime: at Kansas City following the 1993 season and at Tennessee following the 2002 season. This is the year that the Steelers can and will reverse Cowher's playoff road record.

Prediction: Pittsburgh 24, Bengals 17. The winner of this game gets to go on and lose to Indianapolis on 1/15.

My plays for the week:
For the record, I also have my previously posted "Wild Orange Roses" teaser still live, risking 2.5 units to win five units on Pitt +4 NE -1.

Tease Pittsburgh +3 New England -2: 5.5 units to win 5 units
Pittsburgh -3 (+101): 1 unit to win 1.01 units. Game of the Week.
Carolina Moneyline play (+122): 1 unit to win 1.22 units.
Tampa Bay -2.5 (-103): .103 units to win .1 unit
Jacksonville +7.5 (moved the line for lower juice) (-108): .108 units to win .1 unit

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NFL wildcard picks will be formally posted tomorrow. My previously posted four-team "Wild Orange Roses" teaser is alive and well, now sitting with two teams left to play for a 2-1 payout. I'm not seeing a lot of value in the NFL wildcard lines, but there's a possibility that a individual game or two might get selected. For sure I'll be posting a teaser, and possibly a series of middles revolving around the "Wild Orange Roses" teaser assuming you're on that with me. Keep your eyes peeled tomorrow morning.

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Performify's Pigskin Picks: Wild Orange Roses

I've started preliminary analysis on the NFL wildcard games, and my system doesn't like much at all at the given lines. But I have found a four-team teaser that combines tonight's Orange Bowl, tomorrow's Rose Bowl, and two games from the NFL wildcard round this weekend. So without further ado:

Florida State +17
Texas +14
Patriots -1
Steelers +4

2.5 units to win 5 units

I posted my wrapup results for the NFL regular season in a comment on my last picks post but I'll repost here for posterity:

Final NFL regular season record: 10-7 on Game of the Week, +21.5 units as posted
Final NFL regular season record: 33-35 overall, +14.5 units for the year on all posted plays.

As in years past, the graduated betting scheme (valuing certain games more strongly than others, instead of just placing a single unit on all 68 games selected) has resulted in a positive winning season. Game of the Week was a solid 58.8% winner. Most of these results were skewed by my selecting only a single game and two teasers in week 17, but that's not unusual as my system takes in to account numerous factors including "need to win" and thus wants to stay far away from games that have little or no consequence.