Performify's Pigskin Picks - Week Thirteen
2006 YTD - Season Record Summary:
Game of the Week: 5 - 4 - 3 : +5.70 units
non GotW picks: 14 - 23 - 1 : -10.62 units
All Straight Picks: 19 - 27 - 4 : -4.92 units
Tease of the Week: 6 - 2 - 0 : +10.60 units
All Public NFL Picks: 25 - 29 - 4 : +5.68 total units
Dallas -3 (-113) at NY Giants
I look for the Giants slide to continue here, in what should be a great game of football. First, injury status. The Cowboys are 100% healthy with no one even "probable" on their injury report. On the opposite side, the Giants have eight players on their injury report, most of them injuries on the defensive side of the ball: Michael Strahan the standout DE will miss the game. Starting corner Corey Webster will miss the game. Three other key defensive players are banged up, listed questionable but should play but will likely be limited by their injuries: linebacker Brandon Short (knee), DE Osi Umenyiora (hip) and probably most importantly the other cornerback Sam Madison (hamstring).
Second, while both teams need this game, the Cowboys aren't just looking playoffs they're looking towards postseason success while the Giants are heading the wrong direction, spiraling down with infighting on the team while they're in the middle of a three game slide including last week's biggest ever fourth quarter collapse in the Giants loss to the Titans.
On offense, look for Dallas to come out with three receiver sets to spread the field and force matchup problems for the banged up Giants secondary. Look for Romo to have a big day against the struggling Giants corners, expecting 300 yards and 2 TDs. On defense the Giants are in a no-win situation. Since Dallas can spread the field and attack downfield it will force the Giants to shift out of their base defense (going nickel or dime) which will expose them to the dangerous Dallas rushing attack. But when they try to stop the run, they're exposed to the pass.
On defense, Dallas brings a very strong defense to the field, the fourth ranked defense overall and #4 against the run. The Giants need to run first to be successful on offense, and with the strong Dallas rush defense look for Eli Manning to be forced to throw early, and frustrated as a result. The Giants are good running off tackle but struggle running in the middle. Look for the Cowboys to play Roy Williams in the box all day supporting the run outside, forcing the Giants to run inside where they average less than three yards per carry.
The Giants are struggling on and off the field and while they definitely "need" this game, we should see the Dallas defense stuff the rush and force Manning to throw - and when - not if - Eli makes his first mistake, the whole house will come down on him. The fans will boo this team, the team will self-destruct, and Dallas will roll. The final score will likely be closer than the game will look - I expect Dallas to build an early lead and have the game well in hand, perhaps a late garbage TD for the Giants to bring things closer. 28-21 Dallas, Game of the Week.
Titans +7.5 (-110) vs Colts
In Week 5 the Titans lost to the Colts by only by one point, 14-13. Since then the Titans are 4-2 in their last seven games. In one of those losses, the Titans lost by only 1 point to the Ravens as well. The Titans have a strong rushing attack, Indy has the well-publicized worst rush defense in the league. Additionally, Indy is cruising with little motivation to try to win out. 21-14 Colts for the cover.
NY Jets -1 +102 at Packers
Another case of must-win versus who cares. While the Pack are certainly always more motivated to win at home, this season is already a writeoff and the Jets are fighting for a playoff spot. The Jets need this win to stay in the wild card race, and stay in fighting distance of the Pats for the division in case New England drops a couple. Recommend moving the line to -1 +102 rather than the Jets ML at -102.
Summary of Picks for Week 13Dallas -3 (-113) : 5.65u to win 5u
Titans +7.5 (-110) : 2.2u to win 2u
NY Jets -1 (+102) : 2u to win 2.02u
A couple lines have crept my way slightly in the past 12 hours and if they move again before the games I may be back in the morning with another play and possibly a teaser depending on line movement.
Game of the Week: 5 - 4 - 3 : +5.70 units
non GotW picks: 14 - 23 - 1 : -10.62 units
All Straight Picks: 19 - 27 - 4 : -4.92 units
Tease of the Week: 6 - 2 - 0 : +10.60 units
All Public NFL Picks: 25 - 29 - 4 : +5.68 total units
Dallas -3 (-113) at NY Giants
I look for the Giants slide to continue here, in what should be a great game of football. First, injury status. The Cowboys are 100% healthy with no one even "probable" on their injury report. On the opposite side, the Giants have eight players on their injury report, most of them injuries on the defensive side of the ball: Michael Strahan the standout DE will miss the game. Starting corner Corey Webster will miss the game. Three other key defensive players are banged up, listed questionable but should play but will likely be limited by their injuries: linebacker Brandon Short (knee), DE Osi Umenyiora (hip) and probably most importantly the other cornerback Sam Madison (hamstring).
Second, while both teams need this game, the Cowboys aren't just looking playoffs they're looking towards postseason success while the Giants are heading the wrong direction, spiraling down with infighting on the team while they're in the middle of a three game slide including last week's biggest ever fourth quarter collapse in the Giants loss to the Titans.
On offense, look for Dallas to come out with three receiver sets to spread the field and force matchup problems for the banged up Giants secondary. Look for Romo to have a big day against the struggling Giants corners, expecting 300 yards and 2 TDs. On defense the Giants are in a no-win situation. Since Dallas can spread the field and attack downfield it will force the Giants to shift out of their base defense (going nickel or dime) which will expose them to the dangerous Dallas rushing attack. But when they try to stop the run, they're exposed to the pass.
On defense, Dallas brings a very strong defense to the field, the fourth ranked defense overall and #4 against the run. The Giants need to run first to be successful on offense, and with the strong Dallas rush defense look for Eli Manning to be forced to throw early, and frustrated as a result. The Giants are good running off tackle but struggle running in the middle. Look for the Cowboys to play Roy Williams in the box all day supporting the run outside, forcing the Giants to run inside where they average less than three yards per carry.
The Giants are struggling on and off the field and while they definitely "need" this game, we should see the Dallas defense stuff the rush and force Manning to throw - and when - not if - Eli makes his first mistake, the whole house will come down on him. The fans will boo this team, the team will self-destruct, and Dallas will roll. The final score will likely be closer than the game will look - I expect Dallas to build an early lead and have the game well in hand, perhaps a late garbage TD for the Giants to bring things closer. 28-21 Dallas, Game of the Week.
Titans +7.5 (-110) vs Colts
In Week 5 the Titans lost to the Colts by only by one point, 14-13. Since then the Titans are 4-2 in their last seven games. In one of those losses, the Titans lost by only 1 point to the Ravens as well. The Titans have a strong rushing attack, Indy has the well-publicized worst rush defense in the league. Additionally, Indy is cruising with little motivation to try to win out. 21-14 Colts for the cover.
NY Jets -1 +102 at Packers
Another case of must-win versus who cares. While the Pack are certainly always more motivated to win at home, this season is already a writeoff and the Jets are fighting for a playoff spot. The Jets need this win to stay in the wild card race, and stay in fighting distance of the Pats for the division in case New England drops a couple. Recommend moving the line to -1 +102 rather than the Jets ML at -102.
Summary of Picks for Week 13
A couple lines have crept my way slightly in the past 12 hours and if they move again before the games I may be back in the morning with another play and possibly a teaser depending on line movement.
posted by Performify at 9:24 PM
2 Comments:
Adding two units on Jets -1 +107
Adding one unit on Kansas City -3 -125.
Final results on the week:
Summary of Picks for Week 13
* Dallas -3 (-113) : 5.65u to win 5u : push
* Titans +7.5 (-110) : 2.2u to win 2u : WIN +2u
* NY Jets -1 (+102) : 2u to win 2.02u : WIN +2.02u
* NY Jets -1 (+107) : 2u to win 2.14u : WIN +2.14u
* Kansas City -3 (-125) : 1.25u to win 1u : Loss -1.25u
2-1 +4.91 units with a push on Game of the Week.
Thought the Chiefs would cruise up 14 points in the fourth quarter and then thought I had a push at worst when the Chiefs won the toss in OT after blowing said 14 point fourth quarter lead... but not meant to be.
2006 YTD - Season Record Summary:
Game of the Week: 5 - 4 - 4 +5.70u
non GotW picks: 16 - 24 - 1 -5.71u
All Straight Picks: 21 - 28 - 5 -0.01
Tease of the Week: 6 - 2 - 0 +10.60
All Public Picks: 27 - 30 - 5 +10.59
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