Performify's Pigskin Picks - Week Twelve
Not a lot of plays this week, my system liked Kansas City this week but I didn't get a chance to post it due to Thanksgiving commitments. Anyways, on to the picks...
Last week: 3-1, +5.02u on straight picks. Win on Game of the Week. Win on Tease of the Week +5u. Total for the week: +10.02u
YTD RESULTS:
17-25-4 on posted picks, -6.72 units (excludes teasers)
4-4-3 on Game of the Week, +0.75 units.
6-3 on Tease of the Week, +9.6 units
Year to date combined on all posted NFL picks (includes teasers): -2.14 units
Remember, as always these are graduated units, so cut them in half if you're playing "1%-2% of your bankroll" sized units.
Jets -4.5 (-104) vs Texans
This is a must-win for the Jets to keep playoff hopes alive, while the Texans are playing for pride at this point with a 3-7 record and a 1-4 record on the road. The Texans are improving but still don't have everything they need on both sides of the ball to mount a serious run at the postseason. The Jets are coming off two strong games against the Pats and Bears, and yet Jets QB Chad Pennington is playing for his job as his arm has started to fade coming off his two shoulder surgeries in the offseason.
Houston has good quickness on their offensive line and with the surprising performance of speedster Leon Washington. The Texans have a bigger, slower defensive line (especially at the ends) which should allow the Jets, especially Washington, to run outside. The Jets have gotten their running game on track in the past few weeks and will build on that success here against a Texans team that gives up an average of 125 yards per game on the ground. The Texans also have troubles in the secondary, the Texans' defense is tied for last in the AFC with seven interceptions and is third-worst with only 18 sacks. Pennington should have plenty of time to throw, and shouldn't have to worry about turnovers much. Expect a solid outing for Chad Pennington and the NY Jets passing attack.
The Texans still have several gaps on both sides of the ball. Its especially a bad year to be a Texans tackle - on the offensive line the Texans are starting two backups at tackle after losing their top two offensive tackles, and they lost their top two defensive tackles as well. In short, the injuries to the Texans are much more significant than the casual observer realizes if you're not watching closely. 24-17 NY Jets, Game of the Week.
Chargers -13 (-110) vs Raiders
Oakland's defense has been playing better than expected, especially at home, but their offense is absolutely terrible. The Raiders offense took another blow last week losing Lamont Jordan for the rest of the season (ACL). The Raiders won't be able to run against the Chargers' top rush defense and with their problems at offensive line will struggle to protect their QB, whether its Brooks or Walter who might get time in the second half. The last time these two teams met, in week one, the Raiders gave up nine sacks on route to getting skunked 27-0. The Raiders should actually score this week, probably a late meaningless touchdown, but won't keep this inside two TDs. With KC beating Denver, San Diego can't overlook this game with a tight three-way race in the AFC West. LT has 22 touchdowns on the year. The Oakland offense has eight. I expect that ratio to stay about the same, LT finding the endzone three times and Oakland only once. San Diego 24, Oakland 10.
Carolina -4 (-101) at Washington
Redskins are struggling with the loss of their marquee running back Clinton Portis for the season, and are starting an inexperienced quarterback in Jason Campbell who gets his second NFL start. The Redskins' secondary is next to last in the league in pass defense, and definitely doesn't have anyone who can match up with Steve Smith. They'll have to double him all day, which will lead to big things for the rest of the offense, helping to open up the running game and the rest of the receiving options. The Carolina offensive line has gelled the last few weeks, producing their best rushing game of the year last week with 242 yards on the ground. The Panthers are tied for first in the NFC South (tied with the Saints, who have a tough game with the Falcons) so this is an important game for Carolina.
Colts -9.5 (+102) vs Eagles
The Colts are playing for home field advantage here, the Eagles season is shot with the loss of McNabb. While Westbrook should have a big day against the mediocre Colts rush defense, the Colts can stack the box and force the Eagles to the air, which is no longer such a threat without McNabb behind center. Garcia has no arm strength which takes away the deep ball. Look for a lot of three-and-out from the Eagles offense, and with the Eagles defense stuck on the field against the deadly Indy offensive attack they're going to give up a lot of points. 35-17 Colts, I wouldn't be surprised to see a three touchdown margin at halftime.
Last week: 3-1, +5.02u on straight picks. Win on Game of the Week. Win on Tease of the Week +5u. Total for the week: +10.02u
YTD RESULTS:
17-25-4 on posted picks, -6.72 units (excludes teasers)
4-4-3 on Game of the Week, +0.75 units.
6-3 on Tease of the Week, +9.6 units
Year to date combined on all posted NFL picks (includes teasers): -2.14 units
Remember, as always these are graduated units, so cut them in half if you're playing "1%-2% of your bankroll" sized units.
Jets -4.5 (-104) vs Texans
This is a must-win for the Jets to keep playoff hopes alive, while the Texans are playing for pride at this point with a 3-7 record and a 1-4 record on the road. The Texans are improving but still don't have everything they need on both sides of the ball to mount a serious run at the postseason. The Jets are coming off two strong games against the Pats and Bears, and yet Jets QB Chad Pennington is playing for his job as his arm has started to fade coming off his two shoulder surgeries in the offseason.
Houston has good quickness on their offensive line and with the surprising performance of speedster Leon Washington. The Texans have a bigger, slower defensive line (especially at the ends) which should allow the Jets, especially Washington, to run outside. The Jets have gotten their running game on track in the past few weeks and will build on that success here against a Texans team that gives up an average of 125 yards per game on the ground. The Texans also have troubles in the secondary, the Texans' defense is tied for last in the AFC with seven interceptions and is third-worst with only 18 sacks. Pennington should have plenty of time to throw, and shouldn't have to worry about turnovers much. Expect a solid outing for Chad Pennington and the NY Jets passing attack.
The Texans still have several gaps on both sides of the ball. Its especially a bad year to be a Texans tackle - on the offensive line the Texans are starting two backups at tackle after losing their top two offensive tackles, and they lost their top two defensive tackles as well. In short, the injuries to the Texans are much more significant than the casual observer realizes if you're not watching closely. 24-17 NY Jets, Game of the Week.
Chargers -13 (-110) vs Raiders
Oakland's defense has been playing better than expected, especially at home, but their offense is absolutely terrible. The Raiders offense took another blow last week losing Lamont Jordan for the rest of the season (ACL). The Raiders won't be able to run against the Chargers' top rush defense and with their problems at offensive line will struggle to protect their QB, whether its Brooks or Walter who might get time in the second half. The last time these two teams met, in week one, the Raiders gave up nine sacks on route to getting skunked 27-0. The Raiders should actually score this week, probably a late meaningless touchdown, but won't keep this inside two TDs. With KC beating Denver, San Diego can't overlook this game with a tight three-way race in the AFC West. LT has 22 touchdowns on the year. The Oakland offense has eight. I expect that ratio to stay about the same, LT finding the endzone three times and Oakland only once. San Diego 24, Oakland 10.
Carolina -4 (-101) at Washington
Redskins are struggling with the loss of their marquee running back Clinton Portis for the season, and are starting an inexperienced quarterback in Jason Campbell who gets his second NFL start. The Redskins' secondary is next to last in the league in pass defense, and definitely doesn't have anyone who can match up with Steve Smith. They'll have to double him all day, which will lead to big things for the rest of the offense, helping to open up the running game and the rest of the receiving options. The Carolina offensive line has gelled the last few weeks, producing their best rushing game of the year last week with 242 yards on the ground. The Panthers are tied for first in the NFC South (tied with the Saints, who have a tough game with the Falcons) so this is an important game for Carolina.
Colts -9.5 (+102) vs Eagles
The Colts are playing for home field advantage here, the Eagles season is shot with the loss of McNabb. While Westbrook should have a big day against the mediocre Colts rush defense, the Colts can stack the box and force the Eagles to the air, which is no longer such a threat without McNabb behind center. Garcia has no arm strength which takes away the deep ball. Look for a lot of three-and-out from the Eagles offense, and with the Eagles defense stuck on the field against the deadly Indy offensive attack they're going to give up a lot of points. 35-17 Colts, I wouldn't be surprised to see a three touchdown margin at halftime.
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Summary of Picks for Week 12
posted by Performify at 12:41 AM
1 Comments:
Summary of Picks for Week 12
* Jets -4.5 (-104) : 5.2u to win 5u : WIN +5u
* Chargers -13 (-110) : 2.2u to win 2u : loss -2.2u
* Panthers -4 (-101) : 2.02u to win 2u : loss -2.02u
* Colts -9.5 (+102) : 1u to win 1.02u : WIN +1.02u
This week: 2-2, +1.8u on straight picks. Win on Game of the Week, +5u.
YTD RESULTS:
19-27-4 on posted picks, -4.92 units (excludes teasers).
5-4-3 on Game of the Week, +5.75 units.
6-3 on Tease of the Week, +9.6 units
Year to date combined on all posted NFL picks (includes teasers): -0.34 units.
Meh.
Game of the week nailed, start to finish, score was even close to predicted.
Chargers cover 7 but not 14. Pretty poor game for the Chargers despite pulling out a controversial win.
Carolina's passing attack never got in gear, very disappointing, terrible numbers for Delhomme.
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