Performify's Pigskin Picks - Week Nine
Better results last week with a decisive win on Game of the Week, but a big loss on the second half of the Tease of the Week dropped me from a profitable week picking games to a slightly negative week thanks to the teaser loss.
Last week:
2-2, +1.85u on straight picks. Win on Game of the Week.
Loss on Tease of the Week, -2.4u
Total on the day: -0.55u
YTD RESULTS:
12-18-4 on posted picks, -6.39 units (excludes teasers)
2-3-3 on Game of the Week, -5.1 units.
3-3 on Tease of the Week, -1.4 units
Year to date combined on all posted NFL picks (includes teasers): -7.79 units
As always these are graduated units (corresponding to the growth in my bankroll over the years, but unit:dollar ratio stays the same for easy comparison) so if you’re using units that are 1%-2% of your current bankroll, you should cut my suggest units in half. As usual, all lines current from Pinnacle.
Atlanta -5 (-103) at Detroit
Everybody I’ve seen loves this game (it’s the #2 consensus game of the week on Wagerline, for example), but my system loves it too and I just can’t fathom why this line is where it is. Detroit is missing their best run stopper with defensive tackle Shaun Rogers on suspension. Not to mention the Lions have undersized linebackers who rely on speed, who can be overwhelmed by power inside runs, and who will struggle all day to stop the run. With Vick’s newfound emphasis on throwing the ball, teams can’t just line up to stop the run without Vick going over the top. The Lions do matchup well stopping Vick’s legs from hurting them, as middle linebacker Boss Bailey has the speed to spy on Vick to limit his scrambling. But with Bailey in the spy it just takes one more guy out of good coverage options, so there’s downside as well.
The Lions rank an awful 29th in the NFL in pass defense, and despite coming off the bye week won’t be able to make enough adjustments to deal with the Vick Experience. They play Cover 2, and if they go Cover-2 with a linebacker spy, they’re going to be vulnerable to big plays. Look for a lot of Crumpler abusing the safeties in the middle (always a weakness in Cover-2 schemes). Its really a no-win situation for the Detroit defense. If Detroit walks up a safety, they become vulnerable to the big pass play, something Vick has been doing exceptionally well the past few weeks. If they keep the linebackers filling the middle gaps to stop Dunn, they become vulnerable to the shotgun option that Atlanta has been using to such great success. So if they send the ends upfield to try to contain the option they become vulnerable to Dunn offtackler, or Vick scrambling up the middle.
On defense, the Falcons have a tremendously aggressive pass rush, and can bring a bunch of pressure to bear on Kitna on obvious passing downs. Detroit’s offensive line has surrendered 23 sacks in seven games and will give up multiple sacks on Sunday. Detroit has also thrown nine interceptions, and look for mistakes to be made in this game as well. With strong corners able to man-up on Roy Williams, in their man-zone scheme; with the aggressive pass rush, with a strong defensive line; I look for Atlanta to get up early, force Detroit to the air, and really shut them down once they become one dimensional.
Look for Atlanta to dominate time of possession and for this game to be lower-scoring than some would anticipate, despite Detroit extensively featuring a sandlot playbook of “go deep and I’ll hit you”. Atlanta needs to win this game, to keep pace with New Orleans for first place in the division. At 1-6, Detroit’s season is already a wash. 28-17 Falcons, Game of the Week.
This line seems to be trending down, so you may want to keep an eye on it and look to place closer to gametime.
Denver +3 (-108) at Pittsburgh
Its always hard to tell what Pittsburgh team is going to show up, but after last week’s anemic showing by Pitt and last week’s offensive shootout with Denver, these are two teams headed in opposite directions. The Steelers’ season is shot already at 2-5, whereas Denver needs a win to keep pace in the AFC.
Denver has an elite run-stopping defense, with some of the most athletic linebackers in the NFL. Denver gets defensive tackle Gerard Warren back, which will further help them contain the run. Denver will stack the line and force Big Ben to pass, and will produce more bad results for the Steelers. Against the Colts, you saw Denver’s standout shutdown corner Champ Bailey pretty much eliminate Marvin Harrison, but Manning had several other options especially Reggie Wayne. The Steelers don’t have a player of the caliber of Reggie Wayne at #2, and with Bailey shutting down Hines Ward, Ben Roethlisberger will be forced to throw to secondary targets. The Steelers had trouble last week keeping pressure off Big Ben, from an anemic Raiders pass rush. They’re going to have much more trouble dealing with an athletic Denver pass rush.
On the other side, the Steelers defense is fast and aggressive but can be penetrated with a strong ground game. Look for a big day from Mike Bell and a rough day for the Steelers. 21-17 Denver in the outright win, but go ahead and take the points here.
Chicago -13.5 (+102) vs Miami
Two touchdowns is a lot in the NFL, but against an anemic Miami offense I see Chicago covering this frequently enough to warrant a unit play in my system. The Dolphins have given up 26 sacks this year, second most in the NFL, and the Bears are going to be able to demolish a mediocre Miami offensive line. The Bears lead the NFL in defensive takeaways with 22 in seven games, as well as the turnover ratio with + 11. Other than Grossman’s meltdown against Arizona, the Bears have only one turnover per game the rest of the season. The Dolphins' offense has only averaged 14.6 points per game ranking 29th in the NFL, and is going up against the stingiest defense in the league, with Chicago allowing less than 10 points per game. I look for Chicago to build a quick early lead, and force Miami to the air in catch-up mode, which will allow Chicago’s defense to feast on a one-dimensional attack. . 28-7 Chicago.
San Diego -12 (-103) vs Cleveland
Another case of a lot of points, but still few enough that the Chargers should cover this frequently. The Chargers will miss starting LBs Shawne Merriman and Shaun Phillips, but they return defensive end Igo Olshansky to action Sunday. Even though the Chargers' front seven is banged up and has yielded back-to-back 100-yard games to the Chiefs and Rams, they’re still going to be able to stifle a woeful Browns offense. Chargers 28, Browns 14.
Tease of the Week: Colts +3, Chiefs +1.5
Kansas City’s line has been bet down pretty aggressively from an opening +2.5, and the Patriots have been bet up from -1 to -3. I like teasing both of these lines quite a bit. The Patriots game should serve to be a high-scoring, back-and-forth battle on the lines of the Broncos/Colts game last week ,and I expect it to be decided by a single possession. Likewise the Chiefs game should be decided by a single possession, so Wong-ing that game across the 3 and 7 should have a lot of value here. If you wanted you can also pay the additional juice for a 7-point teaser to get the Colts to a push on 10, but I’m content with going with the 2-team, 6-point teaser to Colts +9, Chiefs +7.5. Worth a three unit play in my system.
Summary of Picks for Week NineAtlanta -5 (-103) : 5.15u to win 5u
Denver +3 (-108) : 2.16u to win 2u
Chicago -13.5 (+102) : 1u to win 1.02u
San Diego -12 (-103) : 1.03u to win 1u
Colts +9, Chiefs +7.5: 3.3u to win 3u
Last week:
2-2, +1.85u on straight picks. Win on Game of the Week.
Loss on Tease of the Week, -2.4u
Total on the day: -0.55u
YTD RESULTS:
12-18-4 on posted picks, -6.39 units (excludes teasers)
2-3-3 on Game of the Week, -5.1 units.
3-3 on Tease of the Week, -1.4 units
Year to date combined on all posted NFL picks (includes teasers): -7.79 units
As always these are graduated units (corresponding to the growth in my bankroll over the years, but unit:dollar ratio stays the same for easy comparison) so if you’re using units that are 1%-2% of your current bankroll, you should cut my suggest units in half. As usual, all lines current from Pinnacle.
Atlanta -5 (-103) at Detroit
Everybody I’ve seen loves this game (it’s the #2 consensus game of the week on Wagerline, for example), but my system loves it too and I just can’t fathom why this line is where it is. Detroit is missing their best run stopper with defensive tackle Shaun Rogers on suspension. Not to mention the Lions have undersized linebackers who rely on speed, who can be overwhelmed by power inside runs, and who will struggle all day to stop the run. With Vick’s newfound emphasis on throwing the ball, teams can’t just line up to stop the run without Vick going over the top. The Lions do matchup well stopping Vick’s legs from hurting them, as middle linebacker Boss Bailey has the speed to spy on Vick to limit his scrambling. But with Bailey in the spy it just takes one more guy out of good coverage options, so there’s downside as well.
The Lions rank an awful 29th in the NFL in pass defense, and despite coming off the bye week won’t be able to make enough adjustments to deal with the Vick Experience. They play Cover 2, and if they go Cover-2 with a linebacker spy, they’re going to be vulnerable to big plays. Look for a lot of Crumpler abusing the safeties in the middle (always a weakness in Cover-2 schemes). Its really a no-win situation for the Detroit defense. If Detroit walks up a safety, they become vulnerable to the big pass play, something Vick has been doing exceptionally well the past few weeks. If they keep the linebackers filling the middle gaps to stop Dunn, they become vulnerable to the shotgun option that Atlanta has been using to such great success. So if they send the ends upfield to try to contain the option they become vulnerable to Dunn offtackler, or Vick scrambling up the middle.
On defense, the Falcons have a tremendously aggressive pass rush, and can bring a bunch of pressure to bear on Kitna on obvious passing downs. Detroit’s offensive line has surrendered 23 sacks in seven games and will give up multiple sacks on Sunday. Detroit has also thrown nine interceptions, and look for mistakes to be made in this game as well. With strong corners able to man-up on Roy Williams, in their man-zone scheme; with the aggressive pass rush, with a strong defensive line; I look for Atlanta to get up early, force Detroit to the air, and really shut them down once they become one dimensional.
Look for Atlanta to dominate time of possession and for this game to be lower-scoring than some would anticipate, despite Detroit extensively featuring a sandlot playbook of “go deep and I’ll hit you”. Atlanta needs to win this game, to keep pace with New Orleans for first place in the division. At 1-6, Detroit’s season is already a wash. 28-17 Falcons, Game of the Week.
This line seems to be trending down, so you may want to keep an eye on it and look to place closer to gametime.
Denver +3 (-108) at Pittsburgh
Its always hard to tell what Pittsburgh team is going to show up, but after last week’s anemic showing by Pitt and last week’s offensive shootout with Denver, these are two teams headed in opposite directions. The Steelers’ season is shot already at 2-5, whereas Denver needs a win to keep pace in the AFC.
Denver has an elite run-stopping defense, with some of the most athletic linebackers in the NFL. Denver gets defensive tackle Gerard Warren back, which will further help them contain the run. Denver will stack the line and force Big Ben to pass, and will produce more bad results for the Steelers. Against the Colts, you saw Denver’s standout shutdown corner Champ Bailey pretty much eliminate Marvin Harrison, but Manning had several other options especially Reggie Wayne. The Steelers don’t have a player of the caliber of Reggie Wayne at #2, and with Bailey shutting down Hines Ward, Ben Roethlisberger will be forced to throw to secondary targets. The Steelers had trouble last week keeping pressure off Big Ben, from an anemic Raiders pass rush. They’re going to have much more trouble dealing with an athletic Denver pass rush.
On the other side, the Steelers defense is fast and aggressive but can be penetrated with a strong ground game. Look for a big day from Mike Bell and a rough day for the Steelers. 21-17 Denver in the outright win, but go ahead and take the points here.
Chicago -13.5 (+102) vs Miami
Two touchdowns is a lot in the NFL, but against an anemic Miami offense I see Chicago covering this frequently enough to warrant a unit play in my system. The Dolphins have given up 26 sacks this year, second most in the NFL, and the Bears are going to be able to demolish a mediocre Miami offensive line. The Bears lead the NFL in defensive takeaways with 22 in seven games, as well as the turnover ratio with + 11. Other than Grossman’s meltdown against Arizona, the Bears have only one turnover per game the rest of the season. The Dolphins' offense has only averaged 14.6 points per game ranking 29th in the NFL, and is going up against the stingiest defense in the league, with Chicago allowing less than 10 points per game. I look for Chicago to build a quick early lead, and force Miami to the air in catch-up mode, which will allow Chicago’s defense to feast on a one-dimensional attack. . 28-7 Chicago.
San Diego -12 (-103) vs Cleveland
Another case of a lot of points, but still few enough that the Chargers should cover this frequently. The Chargers will miss starting LBs Shawne Merriman and Shaun Phillips, but they return defensive end Igo Olshansky to action Sunday. Even though the Chargers' front seven is banged up and has yielded back-to-back 100-yard games to the Chiefs and Rams, they’re still going to be able to stifle a woeful Browns offense. Chargers 28, Browns 14.
Tease of the Week: Colts +3, Chiefs +1.5
Kansas City’s line has been bet down pretty aggressively from an opening +2.5, and the Patriots have been bet up from -1 to -3. I like teasing both of these lines quite a bit. The Patriots game should serve to be a high-scoring, back-and-forth battle on the lines of the Broncos/Colts game last week ,and I expect it to be decided by a single possession. Likewise the Chiefs game should be decided by a single possession, so Wong-ing that game across the 3 and 7 should have a lot of value here. If you wanted you can also pay the additional juice for a 7-point teaser to get the Colts to a push on 10, but I’m content with going with the 2-team, 6-point teaser to Colts +9, Chiefs +7.5. Worth a three unit play in my system.
Summary of Picks for Week Nine
posted by Performify at 10:48 AM
1 Comments:
Adding a play:
# Green Bay +3 +108. One unit to win 1.08u.
Packers are coming off two straight wins, finding new balance on offense with both a strong rushing game (4.5 yards per carry) and Favre playing well. The Packers pass defense has been playing better, last week holding the impressive Arizona passing attack to just over 150 yards through the air. The Packers are generally pretty banged up, but CB Rod Woodson has been upgraded in status and should play, and standout rookie Greg Jennings practiced this week and should play despite being questionable. This line has moved enough that its become worth a one unit play in my system. Line seems to be moving our direction so you can wait to place if you want.
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