Ultimate Fight Night 10.10.06
Quick thoughts on the fights tonight, Ultimate Fight Night 10.10.06.
First off, see this thread on the 2+2 Sports Betting forum that I moderate, for active discussion.
Second, I'm only making one official pick for this fight: Ortiz over Shamrock. I literally have rolled my entire sports betting bankroll on to this fight, and strongly believe that the line is +EV at anything under -1900. The line is currently a shade above -800, which certainly requires a large outlay for any real winnings, but this is about as guaranteed as it gets in MMA.
Here are quick full-card predictions, with some quick thoughts, and the current lines:
Tito Ortiz (-832) vs. Ken Shamrock : Ortiz by KO in the first round. Looks almost identical to the first fight, except you see Shamrock actually get knocked out by an elbow this time as the UFC waits a bit longer to stop things.
Kendall Grove (-446) vs. Chris Price : Win #2 on the night for Team Punishment. Kendall starts by winning the battle in standup and finishes on the ground. TKO from strikes.
Ed Herman vs. Jason MacDonald (+256): Jason MacDonald in a big upset. Jason is a strong fighter from Canada with great conditioning. Herman already had suspect conditioning in hte Kendall Groves fight and I'm not going to pick him here for that reason.
Matt Hamill (-238) vs. Seth Petruzelli : Team Punishment win #3 on the night. This will be a tough test for Hamill, but working with Tito since he left the show, Hamill will come out and take care of business. Expect lots of wrestling and takedowns, I'm not sure on Hamill's ground-based offense yet, but he's got the wrestling and takedowns to win this and I'm sure Tito has taught him how to use his elbows by now. Calling a UD win here but if the elbows come out we will see a TKO likely in the second.
Nathan Marquardt vs. Crafton Wallace : no line that i've seen. Should be a great fight though, really surprised this is on the undercard. But I guess with the Ortiz fight we should have plenty of time for an undercard bout or two. Wallace is a highly regarded Muay Thai fighter with strong ground skills, Marquardt is a ground fighter with strong striking. I'll call Marquardt here as he's more experienced, but would need to see a line to make an official pick because this should be close...
Tony DeSouza (-324) vs. Dustin Hazelett : This was supposed to be a highlight match for Joe Riggs but he's hurt so we get Hazelett. DeSouza fought in UFC 31, 32 and 33 and went 2-1 in that stretch, and looked pretty solid. First return to the octagon since then obviously, but he's been fighting in MMA since 2004 and has gone 4-1 in five fights since his return to MMA. He's a strong BJJ fighter and wrestler. Hazelett takes the fight on three weeks notice, but is a training partner of Rich Franklin and Jorge Gurgel so he will be in shape for the fight. This fight definitely goes to the ground, both are solid submission fighters, and we'll see who pulls out the sub. Probably DeSouza but I wouldn't bet this.
Josh Haynes vs. Rory Singer (+132) : I really don't like either of these guys and hopefully we don't have to see it. Singer has a reach advantage and a definite advantage on the ground, Haynes has proven himself vulnerabile to submissions, and has been aggressive in the past to the point of over-aggression. I think we see Rory catch him in a triangle in the second round. In a batch of non-picks, this is the worst of them. Could go either way, really don't even want to see either of these guys on screen if I can help it.
Thiago Alves (+129) vs. John Alessio : We were supposed to see Alves fight at UFC 62, but Alves got sick and Nick Diaz stepped in and won a close decision over Josh Neer. Should be another close fight, and one we'll hopefully see. Both guys are skilled in BJJ, Thiago should have the standup edge with better Muay Thai but Alessio has the reach advantage. Alessio is favored for a reason, but I think Alves pulls the close upset. Alessio is going to want to ensure this doesn't go to the judges (he feels he got robbed in the UD loss to Diego Sanchez at UFC 60) and gets a little overaggressive and gets caught. Alves by TKO from strikes, third round.
Marcus Davis vs. Forrest Petz (-356) : Petz is 12-2 in MMA, Davis is 8-3. Davis lost to Melvin Guillard in his only UFC visit, in the Ultimate Fighter 2 finale in November 2005. He was on TUF2, where he lost early on to Joe Stevenson. Petz won his only UFC visit, a UD over Sam Morgan at UFC Fight Night 6 in August of this year. This line seems a little out of whack to me: Petz should be favored, but I don't see it being this large. Davis is a strong striker and certainly has a puncher's chance here, but Petz is far far better on the ground, and this fight will hit the ground unless Petz gets caught shooting. Petz with a first round TKO, strikes from the mount.
First off, see this thread on the 2+2 Sports Betting forum that I moderate, for active discussion.
Second, I'm only making one official pick for this fight: Ortiz over Shamrock. I literally have rolled my entire sports betting bankroll on to this fight, and strongly believe that the line is +EV at anything under -1900. The line is currently a shade above -800, which certainly requires a large outlay for any real winnings, but this is about as guaranteed as it gets in MMA.
Here are quick full-card predictions, with some quick thoughts, and the current lines:
Tito Ortiz (-832) vs. Ken Shamrock : Ortiz by KO in the first round. Looks almost identical to the first fight, except you see Shamrock actually get knocked out by an elbow this time as the UFC waits a bit longer to stop things.
Kendall Grove (-446) vs. Chris Price : Win #2 on the night for Team Punishment. Kendall starts by winning the battle in standup and finishes on the ground. TKO from strikes.
Ed Herman vs. Jason MacDonald (+256): Jason MacDonald in a big upset. Jason is a strong fighter from Canada with great conditioning. Herman already had suspect conditioning in hte Kendall Groves fight and I'm not going to pick him here for that reason.
Matt Hamill (-238) vs. Seth Petruzelli : Team Punishment win #3 on the night. This will be a tough test for Hamill, but working with Tito since he left the show, Hamill will come out and take care of business. Expect lots of wrestling and takedowns, I'm not sure on Hamill's ground-based offense yet, but he's got the wrestling and takedowns to win this and I'm sure Tito has taught him how to use his elbows by now. Calling a UD win here but if the elbows come out we will see a TKO likely in the second.
Nathan Marquardt vs. Crafton Wallace : no line that i've seen. Should be a great fight though, really surprised this is on the undercard. But I guess with the Ortiz fight we should have plenty of time for an undercard bout or two. Wallace is a highly regarded Muay Thai fighter with strong ground skills, Marquardt is a ground fighter with strong striking. I'll call Marquardt here as he's more experienced, but would need to see a line to make an official pick because this should be close...
Tony DeSouza (-324) vs. Dustin Hazelett : This was supposed to be a highlight match for Joe Riggs but he's hurt so we get Hazelett. DeSouza fought in UFC 31, 32 and 33 and went 2-1 in that stretch, and looked pretty solid. First return to the octagon since then obviously, but he's been fighting in MMA since 2004 and has gone 4-1 in five fights since his return to MMA. He's a strong BJJ fighter and wrestler. Hazelett takes the fight on three weeks notice, but is a training partner of Rich Franklin and Jorge Gurgel so he will be in shape for the fight. This fight definitely goes to the ground, both are solid submission fighters, and we'll see who pulls out the sub. Probably DeSouza but I wouldn't bet this.
Josh Haynes vs. Rory Singer (+132) : I really don't like either of these guys and hopefully we don't have to see it. Singer has a reach advantage and a definite advantage on the ground, Haynes has proven himself vulnerabile to submissions, and has been aggressive in the past to the point of over-aggression. I think we see Rory catch him in a triangle in the second round. In a batch of non-picks, this is the worst of them. Could go either way, really don't even want to see either of these guys on screen if I can help it.
Thiago Alves (+129) vs. John Alessio : We were supposed to see Alves fight at UFC 62, but Alves got sick and Nick Diaz stepped in and won a close decision over Josh Neer. Should be another close fight, and one we'll hopefully see. Both guys are skilled in BJJ, Thiago should have the standup edge with better Muay Thai but Alessio has the reach advantage. Alessio is favored for a reason, but I think Alves pulls the close upset. Alessio is going to want to ensure this doesn't go to the judges (he feels he got robbed in the UD loss to Diego Sanchez at UFC 60) and gets a little overaggressive and gets caught. Alves by TKO from strikes, third round.
Marcus Davis vs. Forrest Petz (-356) : Petz is 12-2 in MMA, Davis is 8-3. Davis lost to Melvin Guillard in his only UFC visit, in the Ultimate Fighter 2 finale in November 2005. He was on TUF2, where he lost early on to Joe Stevenson. Petz won his only UFC visit, a UD over Sam Morgan at UFC Fight Night 6 in August of this year. This line seems a little out of whack to me: Petz should be favored, but I don't see it being this large. Davis is a strong striker and certainly has a puncher's chance here, but Petz is far far better on the ground, and this fight will hit the ground unless Petz gets caught shooting. Petz with a first round TKO, strikes from the mount.
posted by Performify at 2:46 PM
5 Comments:
Bring it on!
(Thanks again!)
Quick results post:
1-0 on bets, pushed all-in to win 28.96 units
8-1 on predictions on the night.
Rundown:
Tito Ortiz (-832) : dominant first round TKO as expected.
Kendall Grove (-446) TKO from strikes exactly as called, first round.
Jason MacDonald (+256): Jason MacDonald in a big upset as called.
Matt Hamill (-238) Correctly called a UD win. Hamill is not going to do well long-term, he's still not putting his hands up.
Nathan Marquardt - Marquardt by rear naked choke in the second round.
Tony DeSouza (-324) DeSouza pulls the sub as predicted, first round.
Rory Singer (+132) : Called Rory sub in the second, actually Rory by decision...
Thiago Alves (+129) Called Alves by TKO from strikes, third round - instead Alves by decision.
Marcus Davis vs. Forrest Petz (-356) : I said: "This line seems a little out of whack to me: Petz should be favored, but I don't see it being this large." and was correct on that analysis. I originally had Marcus Davis bolded but changed to Perez later in the writeup, should have been another correct call here if I'd bolded the right part. Davis won by sub in the end of the first round.
That was sexy.
Great analysis. You pretty much nailed all of them.
Who do you like this weekend?
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