PRIDE 32: Real Deal 10/21
Quick writeup on the Pride 32: Real Deal fights tonight. Lots of UFC fans who are first timers to a Pride PPV, so I'm going to write up each fight even though a lot don't warrant any action. Everything current lines from Pinnacle at the time of this post
Fedor Emelianenko vs Mark Coleman
Fedor Emelianenko -859
Mark Coleman +779
If you're completely new to Pride, Fedor is the first name you should learn and love. Fedor is the Pride heavyweight champion, is undefeated in Pride and has a 23-1 MMA record, his only loss being a freak cut early in the first round of a 2000 event outside of Pride. Fedor is an absolute monster, and one of the best fighters anywhere in the world. He's a Russian Sambo champion (a Russian military martial art that is a cross between judo and jiu-jitsu) who has extremely heavy hands, and is completely versed on the ground and on his feet.
Mark Coleman was first seen at UFC 10 in 1996, winning that tournament and had a 6-0 record in the UFC until he was beaten by Maurice Smith at UFC 14 in 1997. Coleman then lost two more UFC fights, and jumped to Pride. He currently holds a 15-7 MMA record. Coleman turns 43 years old in December. Coleman left Pride in 2001, and then returned in 2003. He's fought roughly once a year since returning: defeated Don Frye in 2003 at Pride 26, then was beaten by Fedor (first round armbar) in 2004, was defeated by Mirko Filipovic in 2005 at Pride 29, then won a bout in Bushido over an OK opponent in late 2005 and then in early 2006, Coleman defeated the very impressive Mauricio "Shogun" Rua in what was kind of a fluke win: Rua broke his arm being taken down by Coleman early in the first round, and Coleman was awarded the victory.
Yes, Coleman has a chance in this fight, this is no where near the "lock" that Ortiz/Liddell was, but that said: Fedor wins this fight 95% of the time, in my opinion, which makes this line +EV and worth a small bet. I won't be loading up on Fedor, but I will make a bet here "for value", to win one unit.
Mauricio Rua vs Kevin Randleman
Mauricio Rua -281
Kevin Randleman +261
This is the best value on the card, in my opinion. Shogun Rua is a member of the vaunted Brazilian Chute Boxe organization, a teammate of Wanderlei Silva among others. Rua has a 13-2 MMA record, his only losses that broken arm early to Coleman, and a loss back in 2003 to Renato "Babalu" Sobral. Randleman is a former national champion wrestler from The Ohio State University, holds a 16-11 MMA record. Randleman was a standout wrestler but is 1-4 in his last five fights, with his only win over a mediocre 8-8 fighter, and 2-6 since 2003. Randleman, who just turned 35, will probably make this fight a little dangerous for Shogun Rua, but Rua is in a completely different class now. Rua to win 2 units.
Dan Henderson vs Vitor Belfort
Dan Henderson -186
Vitor Belfort +176
This is the fight I'm most interested in on the card. Dan "Hollywood" Henderson fought in the UFC back at UFC 17 in 1998 and after two wins in the UFC made the jump to Pride, where he has been very dominant. Henderson holds the Pride Middleweight (183-pound) belt. Vitor "The Phenom" Belfort, a disciple of the infamous Gracie clan, has long been one of my favorite fighters. He made his major MMA debut at UFC 12 in 1997, winning that tournament with two ferocious first-round knockouts. Vitor ran off to a 10-2 MMA record through 2001, then lost to Chuck Liddell at UFC 37.5 in 2002, returned to beat Marvin Eastman at UFC 43, then defeated Randy Couture at UFC 46 by cutting Randy's eye with a punch, to take Randy's belt. In the end of 2004 Vitor rematched Couture and lost decisively, lost a split decision to Tito Ortiz at UFC 51 in early 2005, and then left the UFC. Since leaving, Vitor is 1-1 in Pride and 1-1 in other MMA organizations.
Vitor has tremendous hand speed, is a tremendous striker with ground skills as well. And at six months shy of his thirtieth birthday, still has tremendous potential. A win here puts Vitor back on the map and will set up some very good future opportunities. Henderson is coming off his first loss at the hands of Kazuo Misaki in the quarter-finals of the BUSHIDO Welterweight tournament. I'm going with Vitor here for a small bet, looking for an upset.
Josh Barnett vs Pawel Nastula
Josh Barnett -751
Pawel Nastula +681
Very one-sided line here for a reason. Barnett is an up-and-coming heavyweight from the US, with a 19-4 MMA record. Pawel Nastula is a highly decorated Polish judo fighter who captured Olympic gold at the '96 games in Atlanta. Nastula is being fed to Barnett here: while Nastula will always have a longshot chance of grabbing a submission, Barnett should win this one early, in dominating fashion. Worth a unit bet, but this is a very small edge.
Joey Villasenor vs Robbie Lawler
Joey Villasenor -126
Robbie Lawler +116
By far the closest fight on the card. Villasenor has one fight in Pride, a loss, but holds a 22-4 MMA record, mostly in King of the Cage. This is Robbie Lawler's Pride debut. Lawler is a Miletech fighter who fought in the UFC from 2002 (UFC 37) to 2004 (UFC 50) and has a 11-4 MMA record. His conditioning has been suspect recently, getting derailed by a late-fight submission against Jason Miller in which he appeared to gas in the third round big time. I like Lawler, but I think this fight is very close, too close to warrant a bet unless you're looking for action across the board.
Phil Baroni vs Yosuke Nishijima
Phil Baroni -381
Yosuke Nishijima +351
Two straight-up strikers. Baroni isn't the brightest of fighters, frequently making mistakes in fights, for example wanting to stand and trade with other good strikers instead of taking the fight to the ground where his wrestling skills give him an edge. I'd stay well away from this fight: if Baroni shows good judgement he can win this easy by taking the fight to the ground. However if Baroni decides to stand and trade with the Japanese boxer, there's always a possible KO either way. Baroni should win but its too risky to bet in my opinion.
Kazuhiro Nakamura vs Travis Galbraith
Kazuhiro Nakamura -901
Travis Galbraith +811
Nakamura is a judo fighter with a 10-5 MMA record, most notable for beating Kevin Randleman by UD in 2005 and then getting KO'd by Wanderlei Silva in his very next match. Galbraith is a Canadian practicioner of jiu-jitsu, with a 10-3 MMA record. Galbraith really isn't on the same level of competitor as Nakamura, but I wouldn't bet this fight, the line is pretty well set.
Recommended plays, in order of expected value:Mauricio Rua -306: 5.62u to win 2u
Fedor Emelianenko -859: 8.59u to win 1u
Josh Barnett -751: 1.88u to win .25u
Vitor Belfort +176: .28u to win .5u
Fedor Emelianenko vs Mark Coleman
Fedor Emelianenko -859
Mark Coleman +779
If you're completely new to Pride, Fedor is the first name you should learn and love. Fedor is the Pride heavyweight champion, is undefeated in Pride and has a 23-1 MMA record, his only loss being a freak cut early in the first round of a 2000 event outside of Pride. Fedor is an absolute monster, and one of the best fighters anywhere in the world. He's a Russian Sambo champion (a Russian military martial art that is a cross between judo and jiu-jitsu) who has extremely heavy hands, and is completely versed on the ground and on his feet.
Mark Coleman was first seen at UFC 10 in 1996, winning that tournament and had a 6-0 record in the UFC until he was beaten by Maurice Smith at UFC 14 in 1997. Coleman then lost two more UFC fights, and jumped to Pride. He currently holds a 15-7 MMA record. Coleman turns 43 years old in December. Coleman left Pride in 2001, and then returned in 2003. He's fought roughly once a year since returning: defeated Don Frye in 2003 at Pride 26, then was beaten by Fedor (first round armbar) in 2004, was defeated by Mirko Filipovic in 2005 at Pride 29, then won a bout in Bushido over an OK opponent in late 2005 and then in early 2006, Coleman defeated the very impressive Mauricio "Shogun" Rua in what was kind of a fluke win: Rua broke his arm being taken down by Coleman early in the first round, and Coleman was awarded the victory.
Yes, Coleman has a chance in this fight, this is no where near the "lock" that Ortiz/Liddell was, but that said: Fedor wins this fight 95% of the time, in my opinion, which makes this line +EV and worth a small bet. I won't be loading up on Fedor, but I will make a bet here "for value", to win one unit.
Mauricio Rua vs Kevin Randleman
Mauricio Rua -281
Kevin Randleman +261
This is the best value on the card, in my opinion. Shogun Rua is a member of the vaunted Brazilian Chute Boxe organization, a teammate of Wanderlei Silva among others. Rua has a 13-2 MMA record, his only losses that broken arm early to Coleman, and a loss back in 2003 to Renato "Babalu" Sobral. Randleman is a former national champion wrestler from The Ohio State University, holds a 16-11 MMA record. Randleman was a standout wrestler but is 1-4 in his last five fights, with his only win over a mediocre 8-8 fighter, and 2-6 since 2003. Randleman, who just turned 35, will probably make this fight a little dangerous for Shogun Rua, but Rua is in a completely different class now. Rua to win 2 units.
Dan Henderson vs Vitor Belfort
Dan Henderson -186
Vitor Belfort +176
This is the fight I'm most interested in on the card. Dan "Hollywood" Henderson fought in the UFC back at UFC 17 in 1998 and after two wins in the UFC made the jump to Pride, where he has been very dominant. Henderson holds the Pride Middleweight (183-pound) belt. Vitor "The Phenom" Belfort, a disciple of the infamous Gracie clan, has long been one of my favorite fighters. He made his major MMA debut at UFC 12 in 1997, winning that tournament with two ferocious first-round knockouts. Vitor ran off to a 10-2 MMA record through 2001, then lost to Chuck Liddell at UFC 37.5 in 2002, returned to beat Marvin Eastman at UFC 43, then defeated Randy Couture at UFC 46 by cutting Randy's eye with a punch, to take Randy's belt. In the end of 2004 Vitor rematched Couture and lost decisively, lost a split decision to Tito Ortiz at UFC 51 in early 2005, and then left the UFC. Since leaving, Vitor is 1-1 in Pride and 1-1 in other MMA organizations.
Vitor has tremendous hand speed, is a tremendous striker with ground skills as well. And at six months shy of his thirtieth birthday, still has tremendous potential. A win here puts Vitor back on the map and will set up some very good future opportunities. Henderson is coming off his first loss at the hands of Kazuo Misaki in the quarter-finals of the BUSHIDO Welterweight tournament. I'm going with Vitor here for a small bet, looking for an upset.
Josh Barnett vs Pawel Nastula
Josh Barnett -751
Pawel Nastula +681
Very one-sided line here for a reason. Barnett is an up-and-coming heavyweight from the US, with a 19-4 MMA record. Pawel Nastula is a highly decorated Polish judo fighter who captured Olympic gold at the '96 games in Atlanta. Nastula is being fed to Barnett here: while Nastula will always have a longshot chance of grabbing a submission, Barnett should win this one early, in dominating fashion. Worth a unit bet, but this is a very small edge.
Joey Villasenor vs Robbie Lawler
Joey Villasenor -126
Robbie Lawler +116
By far the closest fight on the card. Villasenor has one fight in Pride, a loss, but holds a 22-4 MMA record, mostly in King of the Cage. This is Robbie Lawler's Pride debut. Lawler is a Miletech fighter who fought in the UFC from 2002 (UFC 37) to 2004 (UFC 50) and has a 11-4 MMA record. His conditioning has been suspect recently, getting derailed by a late-fight submission against Jason Miller in which he appeared to gas in the third round big time. I like Lawler, but I think this fight is very close, too close to warrant a bet unless you're looking for action across the board.
Phil Baroni vs Yosuke Nishijima
Phil Baroni -381
Yosuke Nishijima +351
Two straight-up strikers. Baroni isn't the brightest of fighters, frequently making mistakes in fights, for example wanting to stand and trade with other good strikers instead of taking the fight to the ground where his wrestling skills give him an edge. I'd stay well away from this fight: if Baroni shows good judgement he can win this easy by taking the fight to the ground. However if Baroni decides to stand and trade with the Japanese boxer, there's always a possible KO either way. Baroni should win but its too risky to bet in my opinion.
Kazuhiro Nakamura vs Travis Galbraith
Kazuhiro Nakamura -901
Travis Galbraith +811
Nakamura is a judo fighter with a 10-5 MMA record, most notable for beating Kevin Randleman by UD in 2005 and then getting KO'd by Wanderlei Silva in his very next match. Galbraith is a Canadian practicioner of jiu-jitsu, with a 10-3 MMA record. Galbraith really isn't on the same level of competitor as Nakamura, but I wouldn't bet this fight, the line is pretty well set.
Recommended plays, in order of expected value:
posted by Performify at 10:49 AM
2 Comments:
Results on bets on the night: 3-1, +2.97u
Picks on the night: 7-1. Only missed on the Belfort / Henderson fight. Vitor was able to take the fight the distance but wasn't able to mount any significant offense from his back all the fight. He did work his hips up a couple times, but Henderson's wrestling was just too strong and he controlled Vitor on the ground the entire way.
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