Performify's Pigskin Picks: Week Five, early edition
Well the Early Edition picks didn't work out so well last week, but they're back this week. Good news is after the early success and last week's regression to the mean we can get back on the horse and expect more normal results.
I have two early lines that I expect to move and are worth recommending at this time.
Kansas City -3 -125 : five units, preliminary game of the week, and should present a nice middle/arbitrage opportunity if not
Philly -2.5 -106 : two units, strong play
I grabbed Philly tonight at the above price. I grabbed KC on monday night at a better line, but wasn't going to post as a formal pick until i had fully handicapped the game as my early attempts at predicting obviously weren't super last week.
But based on the trend in both of these lines, I'm again recommending early land grabs.
As usual, I'll be back with full handicapping and analysis.
Last Week: 1-4 on picks -8.63 units. 0-1 on Teaser -4 units. Total -12.63 units
YTD RESULTS: 9-5-1 on posted picks, +7.76 units (excludes teasers)
1-2-1 on Game of the Week, -4.8 units. 1-1 on Tease of the Week, -2 units
Year to date combined on all posted NFL picks (includes teasers): +5.76 units
I have two early lines that I expect to move and are worth recommending at this time.
Kansas City -3 -125 : five units, preliminary game of the week, and should present a nice middle/arbitrage opportunity if not
Philly -2.5 -106 : two units, strong play
I grabbed Philly tonight at the above price. I grabbed KC on monday night at a better line, but wasn't going to post as a formal pick until i had fully handicapped the game as my early attempts at predicting obviously weren't super last week.
But based on the trend in both of these lines, I'm again recommending early land grabs.
As usual, I'll be back with full handicapping and analysis.
Last Week: 1-4 on picks -8.63 units. 0-1 on Teaser -4 units. Total -12.63 units
YTD RESULTS: 9-5-1 on posted picks, +7.76 units (excludes teasers)
1-2-1 on Game of the Week, -4.8 units. 1-1 on Tease of the Week, -2 units
Year to date combined on all posted NFL picks (includes teasers): +5.76 units
posted by Performify at 8:39 PM
3 Comments:
Obviously for anyone late to this party, ignore the Philly pick. Quite a bit of money has moved in on Dallas due to Philly injuries as it currently stands. Two weeks in a row bitten by a line move in the opposite direction as anticipated, albeit not a significant difference between -2.5 and -1.
I'll update on the game later, but if you don't have a position on it already, hold off until the line stabilizes at this time.
If you've got a position and are tremendously worried about it, look in to a teaser: I'd recommend teasing down the panthers as the other game. Note that this is probably not strongly +EV but would be a decent hedge/middle for an early position on Philly -2.5 if you're tremendously worried about it.
That would be teasing Carolina from -9 to -3 and teasing Dallas on the other leg from +1 to +7, if I wasn't perfectly clear.
Good injury news for Philly. Westbrook should play, as should standout CB Lito Sheppard.
If you haven't pulled the trigger on this, and are following my picks, go ahead and grab Philly. I recommend moving the line back to -2.5 -106 instead of the default -1 -119 (Pinny moved the default line because they were aparently getting slammed with teasers on Dallas).
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