UFC 63 full card predictions

UFC 63 is my most anticipated UFC main event in a long, long time. While I love seeing Tito beat up on Shamrock, and the return of Royce Gracie to the octagon was hyped to stratospheric levels, UFC 63 brings one of the most anticipated title defenses in the history of the sport in my opinion: Matt Hughes defending his title in a five round war against the only man in recent history to beat him, The Prodigy B.J. Penn. I'm more excited about this fight than I have been for any fight in a long, long time.

Now the rest of the card? Not so much. In fact I haven't seen a card this one-sided in as long as I can remember. But with a massively one-sided card, we might see some good knockouts, I guess. On to the full card predictions per usual.

Past three UFC results: UFC 62: 1-0 +10 units) (only one pick: Forrest Griffin, 24.2 units to win 10 units, win), UFC 61: 4-4, +1.07 units. UFC 60: 6-3, +3.2671 units. Further results can be found by searching my site if you're interested.

As usual, all lines current as of posting:

B.J. Penn vs Matt Hughes
B.J. Penn +186
Matt Hughes -206

Let me start by disclaiming - if you follow my posted picks on the Two + Two Sports Betting Forum, I recommended to the forum that they grab as much Matt Hughes as possible when this line first opened. It opened at Hughes -105 which I correctly recognized as an off line for the way the money would flow for this fight. The line has obviously climbed tremenedously. I, as well as quite a few others following along, grabbed the maximum on Hughes at -105 and most again loaded up when they raised the maximums around Hughes -135. But I did that less as a pure "value bet" and more as an anticipated hedge. I knew the money would come in on Hughes, and I knew I'd be able to take Penn as a much larger underdog as a risk-free arbitrage closer to the fight. Well, the fight is here, and its time to handicap that arbitrage position.

There are two camps in MMA fans. There are those who think BJ Penn is quite possibly the most overhyped, overrated fighter in MMA history. That his first round defeat of Hughes was basically a lot of luck, and that he hasn't really done anything substaintial since. And then there are those that think a healthy BJ Penn is one of, if not the singular best best active fighter in MMA, pound for pound. I'll start this off saying: I'm in the later camp. I think BJ Penn is one of the best fighters in the game right now, and I think all those in the "Penn is overrated!" camp are going to understand the viewpoint of the "BJ Penn is teh awesome!" camp after Penn puts Hughes down for a second time this weekend.

So that said, lets break this down. I obviously think Penn matches up very well with Matt Hughes: all four of Hughes' losses (UFC 46 vs. BJ Penn in 2004, Pele Landi-Jons in 2001 and twice vs. Dennis Hallman, in UFC 29 in 2000 and in Extreme Challenge 21 in 1998) have come against great BJJ fighters, and especially so against fighters with strong jiu-jitsu who also have good striking. On the other side, Penn's victory over Hughes was Jan 2004, that was two years and nine months ago. Penn then went the distance with Rodrigo Gracie in Rumble on the Rock 6 in November 2004, winning a UD. Penn fought a very impressive 15 minutes with 205-pound Ryoto Machida in K1 in March 2005, losing a close UD to a much larger fighter. And if you got to see the fight - it was a lot of standup, with Penn easily trading with Machida on the feet and even getting the best of it time and time again. If you're just a UFC fan and not that familiar with K1, Machida is an absolute beast with an 8-0 and is the only person to knock out Rich Franklin (December 2003, Franklin's only loss). Penn then went the distance with Renzo Gracie in K1 in the end of July 2005, winning a UD. Penn then walked in to the UFC and demolished GSP for the first round, aggrivated a leg injury suffered during training, and went in to a shell for the last two rounds and lost a close decision that in my opinion was mis-scored.

If you're interested, here's a great fan-made highlight clip of some of BJ Penn's best work on YouTube. You can also watch the Penn vs Rodrigo Gracie fight from RumbleWorld.tv for free for a limited time (you have to sign up for a free account), and finally here is the entire Penn vs Machida fight.

I see Penn having a pretty significant advantage on the feet, and he certainly has the edge on the ground. Hughes will have the edge in takedowns and in strength. I see this fight as either a Hughes win by decision or a Penn submission. Unless it turns out that Penn's conditioning isn't where its reported to be at and he gasses early, or someone gets hurt.

There's no question that Penn's conditioning has been questioned since his fight with GSP. But those saying Penn gassed vs GSP are overlooking the reports that Penn was injured during the fight but didn't want to drop that as an excuse which is why you never heard it out of his mouth, only some of his training partners after the fight. But regardless, Penn reports in his hometown newspaper that he has been training harder for this fight than he has in quite some time.

"I'm in phenomenal shape," he explained. "For my last couple of fights, I had just been doing long-distance slow running. It really doesn't pay off in the ring. You need to be able to explode for five minutes and you've got to keep being able to explode. I just keep changing my training around. But you know -- even if people consider me the true champion -- if I had gone into the ring in the shape I was in for the (St. Pierre) fight, I would have gotten a rude awakening. I learned what I learned from the last fight how the judges are going to score the fight and all the different stuff that's going on. But Hughes is fighting Superman now. This fight is for me. It would be good to bring the belt back to the islands so Hilo can have a world champion."

I see Hughes coming out thinking he has the edge on the feet, trying to stand and strike. And quickly realizing he's getting the worst of it on the feet. Very similar to the Gracie fight - Hughes came out looking to strike on the feet and realized Gracie's long limbs allowed him to get the better of it with leg kicks on the feet, so he quickly changed it up and took Gracie down. Penn's striking is far superior to Hughes - Penn was able to go toe to toe with a 205-pound far superior striker to Hughes in Machida - and Hughes will get picked apart on the feet. So Hughes is forced to take Penn down, in which case he tries to put Penn against the fence and drop hammerfists and elbows. Standard gameplan. Except Penn is by far the most dangerous fighter from his back in the UFC, with the possible exception of Dean Lister. Hughes knows this, and isn't going to open up like crazy and expose himself. So its going to be a highly technical war on the ground, i think. And probably several restarts along the way.

So either Penn can pull out a submission along the way, or Hughes wins the decision due to the scoring of multiple takedowns along the way. Or there's always a possibility Penn KO's him on the feet, or a slight possiblity Hughes does the same thing to Penn. So as I mentioned earlier, I grabbed as much Hughes as I could when it opened at -105 and again around -135 when they raised the limits. I will be leveraging all of that to have a risk free shot on Penn, as I think the line is already off and expect it to climb further to the neighborhood of +250 Penn prefight.

I fully expect BJ Penn to win this fight. I then expect that they'll have Penn fight the winner of the Ultimate Fighter challenge while Hughes faces off with GSP, and after Hughes dominates GSP there, we'll have Penn / Hughes III. But then again, I'm still of the opinion that the Penn/GSP fight should have been a win for Penn and a draw at worst, given that the first round should have been scored 10-8. So its clear that #1 I'm high on Penn and #2 anything is possible when fights are left up to the UFC judges.

Its been a long time since Hughes faced any sort of real challenge in my opinion. GSP was clearly outmatched in their fight, he's come a long way since then. Hughes went the distance against Charuto Verissimo at UFC 48 after losing to Penn, and Verissimo is certainly not a top-tier fighter. The last time we saw Hughes challenged in a fight was UFC 42 in the war with Sean Sherk, in my opinion, and that was April 2003. There's no question in my mind. Hughes is a monster, he's one of the most dominant fighters that the UFC has ever seen. But he's not unbeatable, and I think Penn has all the tools necessary to take Hughes down again. Only question is, obviously, how is Penn's conditioning.

I think with the conditioning uncertainty I'd put Penn about 40%, 45% as I said, corresponding to a +150 to +122, I think if Penn's conditioning was a certainty, if he's optimal shape, I'd say Penn would, in reality easily be a 55% favorite over Hughes. But of course no book would need to hang that line, as -105 on Hughes would be more than sufficient to ensure a ton of action there, and of course you can't ever get 100% certainty about something like conditioning. Lets also not forget that Hughes is about to turn 33 in October. Penn is five years younger. And has less than 1/3 as many fights. Maybe this isn't quite the tipping point for Hughes, but its certainly not far away.

Hughes is a Miletich guy, which means he's training BJJ with Jeremey Horn. Pat Miletich is fighting in the the IFL on Saturday night as well (fighting the aforementioned Renzo Gracie, coincidentally), so its interesting to wonder if that pulled any resources from Hughes' training, or if both fighters training side-by-side in the same gym will have helped Hughes. Personally I assume the former over the latter, but not necessarily enough to swing this considerably: its just yet another small factor that goes in to everything. It also goes without saying that Hughes won't have Miletich in his corner Saturday night, and will likely have Jeremey Horn there I assume.

Does Penn win this fight 6/10? Maybe not. But does Hughes win 2/3 which is what the line currently suggests? Not if Penn is healthy and conditioned, not by a longshot, in my opinion. Of course I can certainly be wrong on all this. I'm not infallable. This is all handicapping, its all my opinion garnered from years of experience and tons of research. If Hughes comes out and dominates Penn start to finish, i.e. the Gracie / Hughes fight, then its obvious I was wrong in my handicapping. But if its a close fight, especially one that goes the distance, i.e. any result that shows that Penn was in fact not a 2:1 underdog, I think my handicapping will have been correct, and will have been on the right side of the fight, regardless of outcome.

As a fan, i'm actually looking forward to this fight more than any other in the UFC in the past two years for sure. As a gambler, this isn't the best fight to load up on, as we're talking about ultimately small edges here compared to something I'd consider a near lock like Ortiz/Shamrock II for example. But as a handicapper we're talking about finding +EV edges and exploiting them: and there's no question that Penn as a 2:1 underdog is +EV. And being in position to arbitrage all that Hughes -105 / Hughes -135 there's no question we're talking about +EV. only question for people following my recommendations on this will be: arbitrage it all, or take the freeroll on the upset? Or even take the freeroll on Hughes, given where people were able to grab the line earlier you could certaily freeroll that side. Regardless, I'll post all three options, but I can guarantee my recommendation will be to freeroll on the upset.

For those without any hedge position on Matt Hughes, I do not think this line presents tremendous value to the point that you should place significant units on it. But at a 2:1 underdog, this line is clearly worth a single unit on Penn for those who are not arbitraging. For those arbitraging, i recommend taking the full shot on Penn: i.e. if you're set to win $500 if Hughes wins from your earlier positions, bet a corresponding $500 on BJ Penn at the current line, so that you break even if Hughes wins and will profit approx $500 if Penn pulls the upset.

Rashad Evans vs Jason Lambert
Rashad Evans -197
Jason Lambert +182

I've been one of the most vocal opponents of Rashad Evans in the past, and i'm not going to stop that here. Rashad is one of the classic practioners of the "lay and pray" method, using his superior wrestling skills to take down opponents and hold them down, but not doing any real damage or any real "fighting" per se, to roll himself to his first eight wins, including his most recent at UFN 5 against Stephan Bonnar. Bonnar, who looked OK in a wild fight with Forrest Griffen at the first Ultimate Fighter finale, but he's basically been proven since as not belonging in the top tier of the UFC. Rashad is ready to take his 8-0 record to the next step.

In this case, the next step is Jason Lambert who steps in with a 22-5 MMA record. Lambert we've seen at the last several UFC events - most probably first remember the name from UFC 58 (USA vs Canada) in March of this year where he defeated Rob MacDonald with a first-round kimura submission. Lambert was back at UFC 59 in April, knocking out Terry Martin in the second round. Lambert then TKO'd Branden Lee Hinkle in the first round of UFN 5 in the end of June. This will be Lambert's first televised fight, as both previous matchups were undercard battles not shown.

Both fighters are at the top of their games right now, and this is a big test for each of them. The winner will be in a position to force their way on to Chuck Liddell's crowded calendar for a shot at the light-heavyweight title (where they'll be mercilessly abused by The Iceman, but hey at least they'll get a shot).

Lambert probably has the overall edge on the ground, in terms of better striking on the ground and certainly better jiu-jitsu: while Rashad definitely has the better takedowns and the overall better wrestling ability.

Ultimately I think this fight is closer than the line indicates, and warrants a bet on the underdog here. This fight has a strong possiblity of going the distance, in which case Rashad probably wins the decision due to likely having the edge in takedowns. But I think Rashad is strongly overvalued here and overrated, and I think that warrants a bet on Lambert here. I think this is a fight that's pretty cautious by both fighters, with Lambert watching out for Rashad's superior explosiveness, superior conditioning, and superior wrestling takedowns and Rashad watching for Lamberts submissions and striking. But hopefully rather than a snoozefest we see these two fighters engage, in which case the edge goes to Lambert. Lambert by guillitine in the second round, wagering a unit.

Jens Pulver vs Joe Lauzon
Jens Pulver -672
Joe Lauzon +612

This fight almost doesn't deserve a writeup. Jens "Little Evil" Pulver is a Miletich fighter and was a former UFC lightweight champion. Jens was last seen in the UFC for UFC 35 (1/2002) where he defeated BJ Penn in a contriversial majority decision. Since the, Jens has been fighting primarily in Shooto and in PRIDE, where he's been pretty dominant. He's won 7 of his last 9, and one of the losses was to standout Takanori Gomi at Pride Shockwave 2004. Lauzon looks like a decent fighter on paper with a 13-3 MMA record, but he's no where near the tier of fighter as Pulver. However, Pulver does have some questions, especially regarding his cutting of 20 pounds for this fight. This opened at -600 and has risen from there. I think its still of value under -1000 but the line's certainly not attractive enough to recommend loading up on. Pulver to win a half-unit.

Melvin Guillard vs Gabe Ruediger
Melvin Guillard -154
Gabe Ruediger +144

Gabe "Godzilla" Reudiger is a three-time former World Extreme Cagefighting lightweight champion and holds the rank of brown belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu under the infamous black belt Rodrigo Mederios. "Godzilla" obviously is a skilled fighter on the ground and has some decent standup thanks to training with Chute Boxing for Thai Boxing. He holds a 10-2 MMA record, losing his first ever fight and then tearing off nine wins in a row before losing to Hermes Franca at WEC 19 in March of this year and then wining his tenth in May in the new Pangea Fights organization. Guillard is a strong striker with some submission skills, with a 20-5 MMA record. We last saw him at UFC 60 (Hughes vs Gracie) where he quickly KO'd Rick Davis in the first round. Prior to that he was triangled by Josh Neer at UFN:3 and prior to that defeated Marcus Davis at the Ultimate Fighter 2 finale in November 2005. Guillard certainly has the striking edge, and he presents a very tough matchup for Ruediger here. While Guillard has demonstrated that he can get caught in a submission, his explosiveness and athleticism should present a very tough matchup for Reudiger. If you saw Reudiger's defeat at the hands of Hermes Franca at WEC 19 in March of this year, you saw how he struggled against a quick and explosive fighter, and Guillard presents a very similar challenge. Guillard has also been training up at Big Bear, which will definitely give him a big conditioning advantage. Guillard should get a TKO secured by the second round, risking one unit.

Mike Swick vs David Loiseau
Mike Swick -133
David Loiseau +123

I'm seeing a lot of people thinking Swick is being overrated here, but I think this line is pretty well set. While Quick Mike Swick hasn't been tested too much, he did demolish Joe Riggs and Loiseau is coming off the big loss to Rich Franklin at UFC 58 where he was battered in a five round war. Loiseau's best weapon, as everyone knows, are his elbows from the ground. And I really don't see this fight getting to the ground. Its going to be very quick, a banging fight on the feet and whoever lands the first big punch is going to close this out quickly. This bout will go a long way to establishing Swick's credibility: Loiseau is a top-tier opponent, and a very very important fight for both fighters: Swick can climb to the verge of a title shot with Rich Franklin if he wins (probably one fight away), and Loiseau will take a big step backwards if he loses two in a row here. If this fight gets out of the first round without Swick putting a serious beating on Loiseau, or if Swick ends up on the bottom at any point, Loiseau is going to steal this fight. This should be a great fight. With all the unknowns I can't argue with someone staying away from this fight, but I'll take Swick here for a unit, predicting a first round TKO.

Roger Huerta vs Jason Dent (prelim)
Roger Huerta -575
Jason Dent +525

Yet another massive mismatch on the cards, and rightfully so. Huerta is 14-1-1 in MMA and is yet another from the Miletich Fighting System. He has an impressive fight resume with wins in Rumble on the Rock, Superbrawl, and Extreme Combat. Dent is a decent Muay Thai fighter but not nearly in the same class. I was surprised to see some money move in on Dent - while he does have a puncher's chance here, Huerta wins this fight nine times out of ten. Huerta to win a half-unit.

Jorge Gurgel vs Danny Abbadi (prelim)
Jorge Gurgel -620
Danny Abbadi +560

Speaking of fights that don't deserve a writeup. Gurgel is no powerhouse but has a 9-2 MMA record, a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt and good Muay Thai striking. Danny "Get me a Sandwich" Abbadi is 2-2 and really is outclassed here. He's a striker and will always have a puncher's chance, but he's not going to win this fight. Gurgel to win a half-unit, with a first round submission.

Tyson Griffin vs David Lee (prelim)
Tyson Griffin -600
David Lee +540

Lee is a UK jiu-jitsu fighter with a BJJ purple belt and he trains with Brazilian Top Team black belt Ze Marcello. Lee normally fights at welterweight and is dropping down. He's got a 5-1 record, all in the Cage Rage series. Griffin is an up-and-comer with very good strength, wrestling skills, and great ground and pound. Griffin rolls this fight, and hopefully we'll see it as it should be a dominant win for Griffin, taking Lee down and beating on him. Despite the large line, this is a big mismatch and warrants multiple units. Griffin by TKO in the first round, laying six units to win a unit.

Summary of Picks ranked in order of expected value

Tyson Griffin -600 : 6 units to win 1 units

Jason Lambert +182 : 1 unit to win 1.82 units

Roger Huerta -575 : 2.875 units to win .5 units

Melvin Guillard -154 : 1.54 units to win 1 unit

B.J. Penn +186 : One unit to win 1.86 units (if you're not on the arbitrage opportunity)

Mike Swick -133 : 1.33 units to win 1 unit

Jorge Gurgel -620 : 3.1 units to win .5 unit

Jens Pulver -672 : 3.36 units to win .5 unit

Total wagered: 20.25 units to win 8.18 units

on the larger fights, if you don't have the bankroll to withstand laying the large units, I recommend at least considering laying to win a half-unit on Tyson Griffin and to win a half-unit on Huerta, and laying off Gurgel and Pulver.