Performify's Pigskin Picks: Week 3
I'm not a big fan of many games this week. I liked the Falcons when they opened at -3 but for some reason felt that line was going to stick around, and I neglected to grab it. The line has since moved to -3.5 with some serious juice and is close to moving to -4 from the looks of it. I like the game, but not enough to warrant a full unit play. On to the picks for this week:
Last week: 3-0 on the week, Win on Game of the Week, Win on Tease of the Week. +11.86 units overall including the (Wong) teaser.
YTD RESULTS: 6-1 on picks, +12.39 units (excludes teasers)
1-1 on Game of the Week, +0.2 units. 1-0 on Tease of the Week, +2 units
Year to date combined on all posted NFL picks: +14.39 units
Bears -3 (-132) at Vikings
I'm breaking a couple cardinal rules of traditional sports betting. I'm taking a road favorite, I'm moving the line on to a key number and paying a load of juice to do it, and i'm going with an offense that's been hot early but hasn't yet proven itself to be "for real". And I'm doing it in good conscience. Because this matchup is just too good to pass up.
The Vikings are playing pretty well to start 2-0, but they're facing too tough a test in Chicago's defense for this game to go any other way. Both teams have similar offenses led by quarterbacks that traditionally aren't asked to win games but to manage them well. Both teams sport a cover-two defense. But that's where the similarities end. Facing a Chicago D that got racked up six sacks last week, the immobile Brad Johnson will spend a lot of the day looking up from his back. Minnesota RB Chester Taylor is a straight-ahead runner, so he'll be spending most of Sunday night running straight ahead in to the best middle linebacker in the business, Brian Urlacher. Not to mention, the Vikings couldn't find the endzone last week against a much less talented Carolina defense, and I don't expect them to have any more offensive success against a superior Chicago D. The Vikings also have numerous injuries, including two of their top wide receivers Troy Williamson (shoulder, probable) and Marcus Robinson (hammy, questionable).
The Vikings loss of defensive standout Erasmus James creates a significant hole in their defensive line which will take more than a week to patch. Minnesota is 17th in Rush Defense and that stat is going to drop further with one of their best players off the d-line. Look for Chicago to run the ball early and often, and for QB Rex Grossman to continue to exploit defenses who try to stack up to stop the run. Since the Vikes are running the copycat scheme of the Chicago D, they're not going to show the Bears offense anything they're not used to seeing. In the cover-2 the linebackers have a lot of responsibilities, and look for Chicago to exploit them with short passes to tight end Desmond Clark and short passes to the backs. This is a definite edge to the Chicago offense.
I know this is a popular play for the public, and I know that I'm breaking a couple major rules here. But I feel strongly about moving this game to 3, as I handicap this as an overly high probility of landing on that three point victory if things don't go exactly as planned. 24-13 Chicago after a meaningless Vikings fourth quarter TD with the second string. Game of the Week, four unit play to counteract the additional juice (normally a five unit play)
Jets +7 (-135) at Bills (moving the line on Pinny)
Another case of "this team (in this case the Bills) isn't good enough to be a seven point favorite over anyone". I am, so far, a believer in Pennington's rebuilt arm and the rebirth of the Jets offensive passing attack. Buffalo has a young secondary and while they've looked good against the pass so far, I expect Pennington's receiving crew of Coles and Cotchery to post some big numbers against the Bills' two rookie safeties (SS Donte Whitner and FS Ko Simpson). Bills face their third consecutive defense coached by Belichick / Belichick protégés. Losman is again a weak link and they're just not going to put up enough on the ground with McGahee to overcome (1) Losman and (2) the way the Jets pass offense is clicking. Again moving the line and paying some rough juice to do so, but for good reason: again I have a strong reason to cover this extra critical number in this expected low-scoring matchup. 21-17 Jets for the outright win. 3 unit play
Packers +7 (-108) at Lions
The Packers and Lions combined for 49 points in their two meetings last season: 16-13 and 17-3. Getting seven points in a game with offenses this innept on both sides of the ball is a lot. While I expect both sides to perform poorly - Favre especially has traditionally performed poorly against the Lions Cover 2 - I don't think the Lions are good enough to cover a touchdown even against the struggling Packers. Favre showed flashes of brilliance in week two, and Ahman Green looked like he was still running in Lincoln Nebraska in week one, and if the Pack can put flashes of those two performances in the same week they could look like a real, balanced football team for the first time this season. The Lions will also be juggling their linebacking corps due to a knee injury to starting linebacker Alex Lewis. As mentioned previously, the coverage responsibilities of the linebackers in a cover-two defense are critical in the passing game, and with a starting linebacker out look for Favre to dump the ball off short to Ahman Green and his tight ends often. 20-17 Lions for the Packers cover. One unit play.
BYE (-10.5) over Raiders
The Raiders suffer another letdown this week, losing a hardfought battle with their bye week to drop to 0-3 to oppen the season.
Picks summary:
Chicago -3 (-132): 5.28 units to win 4 units
Jets +7 (-135) : 4.05 units to win 3 units
Packers +7 (-108): 1.08 units to win 1 unit
Last week: 3-0 on the week, Win on Game of the Week, Win on Tease of the Week. +11.86 units overall including the (Wong) teaser.
YTD RESULTS: 6-1 on picks, +12.39 units (excludes teasers)
1-1 on Game of the Week, +0.2 units. 1-0 on Tease of the Week, +2 units
Year to date combined on all posted NFL picks: +14.39 units
Bears -3 (-132) at Vikings
I'm breaking a couple cardinal rules of traditional sports betting. I'm taking a road favorite, I'm moving the line on to a key number and paying a load of juice to do it, and i'm going with an offense that's been hot early but hasn't yet proven itself to be "for real". And I'm doing it in good conscience. Because this matchup is just too good to pass up.
The Vikings are playing pretty well to start 2-0, but they're facing too tough a test in Chicago's defense for this game to go any other way. Both teams have similar offenses led by quarterbacks that traditionally aren't asked to win games but to manage them well. Both teams sport a cover-two defense. But that's where the similarities end. Facing a Chicago D that got racked up six sacks last week, the immobile Brad Johnson will spend a lot of the day looking up from his back. Minnesota RB Chester Taylor is a straight-ahead runner, so he'll be spending most of Sunday night running straight ahead in to the best middle linebacker in the business, Brian Urlacher. Not to mention, the Vikings couldn't find the endzone last week against a much less talented Carolina defense, and I don't expect them to have any more offensive success against a superior Chicago D. The Vikings also have numerous injuries, including two of their top wide receivers Troy Williamson (shoulder, probable) and Marcus Robinson (hammy, questionable).
The Vikings loss of defensive standout Erasmus James creates a significant hole in their defensive line which will take more than a week to patch. Minnesota is 17th in Rush Defense and that stat is going to drop further with one of their best players off the d-line. Look for Chicago to run the ball early and often, and for QB Rex Grossman to continue to exploit defenses who try to stack up to stop the run. Since the Vikes are running the copycat scheme of the Chicago D, they're not going to show the Bears offense anything they're not used to seeing. In the cover-2 the linebackers have a lot of responsibilities, and look for Chicago to exploit them with short passes to tight end Desmond Clark and short passes to the backs. This is a definite edge to the Chicago offense.
I know this is a popular play for the public, and I know that I'm breaking a couple major rules here. But I feel strongly about moving this game to 3, as I handicap this as an overly high probility of landing on that three point victory if things don't go exactly as planned. 24-13 Chicago after a meaningless Vikings fourth quarter TD with the second string. Game of the Week, four unit play to counteract the additional juice (normally a five unit play)
Jets +7 (-135) at Bills (moving the line on Pinny)
Another case of "this team (in this case the Bills) isn't good enough to be a seven point favorite over anyone". I am, so far, a believer in Pennington's rebuilt arm and the rebirth of the Jets offensive passing attack. Buffalo has a young secondary and while they've looked good against the pass so far, I expect Pennington's receiving crew of Coles and Cotchery to post some big numbers against the Bills' two rookie safeties (SS Donte Whitner and FS Ko Simpson). Bills face their third consecutive defense coached by Belichick / Belichick protégés. Losman is again a weak link and they're just not going to put up enough on the ground with McGahee to overcome (1) Losman and (2) the way the Jets pass offense is clicking. Again moving the line and paying some rough juice to do so, but for good reason: again I have a strong reason to cover this extra critical number in this expected low-scoring matchup. 21-17 Jets for the outright win. 3 unit play
Packers +7 (-108) at Lions
The Packers and Lions combined for 49 points in their two meetings last season: 16-13 and 17-3. Getting seven points in a game with offenses this innept on both sides of the ball is a lot. While I expect both sides to perform poorly - Favre especially has traditionally performed poorly against the Lions Cover 2 - I don't think the Lions are good enough to cover a touchdown even against the struggling Packers. Favre showed flashes of brilliance in week two, and Ahman Green looked like he was still running in Lincoln Nebraska in week one, and if the Pack can put flashes of those two performances in the same week they could look like a real, balanced football team for the first time this season. The Lions will also be juggling their linebacking corps due to a knee injury to starting linebacker Alex Lewis. As mentioned previously, the coverage responsibilities of the linebackers in a cover-two defense are critical in the passing game, and with a starting linebacker out look for Favre to dump the ball off short to Ahman Green and his tight ends often. 20-17 Lions for the Packers cover. One unit play.
BYE (-10.5) over Raiders
The Raiders suffer another letdown this week, losing a hardfought battle with their bye week to drop to 0-3 to oppen the season.
Picks summary:
posted by Performify at 2:34 AM
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