UFC 61 predictions

Saturday brings us UFC 61 and the eagerly anticipated rubber match between Arlovski and Sylvia, and the second scheduled mauling of Ken Shamrock at the hands of Tito Ortiz. Full card predictions to follow per usual.

Frank Mir vs Dan Christison
Frank Mir -250
Dan Christison +230

Mir you should remember as the up-and-coming fighter whose career was derailed by a motorcycle accident. He returned to the ring in UFC 57, where he was demolished in the first round by Marcio Cruz in an upset I correctly called. At 30 years old, Christison is the definition of a mid-tier fighter midway towards the end of his career. He’s rolled off an impressive string of six wins in the past two years, including a undercard win against Brad Imes at UFN:4. Christison is big and strong and a standup fighter with some submissions as well. But Mir has strong jiu-jitsu and should be able to put Christison on the ground – Dan doesn’t have the best balance - and eventually submit him. The taller Christison has a definite advantage on the feet with his size and strength, but the larger you are the more vulnerable you are on the ground: simply put you’ve got more body to guard, its easier to pass your guard, its easier to get leverage on your legs or arms. This will be Mir’s ninth UFC appearance, in which he’s 6-2 and has only been out of the first round once, in a KO win over Wes Sims at UFC 46. This is a match made for Mir to win over a mid-level opponent with a decent record to hopefully propel him back towards the top of the (admittedly weak) UFC heavyweight division and put his career back on track. If Mir loses, his career is pretty much over, whereas a Christison loss isn’t going to affect his career much: he hasn’t beaten anyone of note and doesn’t have the skills to go up against Slyia or Arlovski. Mir by submission in the second round.

Yves Edwards vs Joe Stevenson
Yves Edwards -211
Joe Stevenson +191

Edwards is the founder of Thug-Jitsu and had been regarded as one of the best pound-for-pound fighters anywhere, until he dropped two of his last three fights including the massive upset by Mark Hominick in UFC 58. Yves returned to Pride to fight a mediocre Seichi Ikemoto in April, in a fight where Yves looked mediocre at best and only was able to secure a decision over the .500 fighter. Stevenson is the veteran TUF’er with a 24-7 MMA record – he had ripped off an impressive nine wins in a row in the last three years, before getting his streak broken by Josh Neer on Ultimate Fight Night 4. This is an interesting fight – will we see Edwards recover from his recent downslide? Yves has gone very quickly from being regarded as one of the pound-for-pound best to a giant question mark. Or will we see Stevenson return to being one of the UFC’s hottest rising stars? Yves is 29 years old, about to turn 30. Stevenson is 24, with 31 fights. Stevenson is dropping down to 155 for this fight, his new weight class (the Hominick fight was his first at 155, where he dropped to after having success at 170 on TUF). This will be a big test for Stevenson, but if he can put Edwards away he’s got more to win than Edwards has to lose. This is not a significantly +EV line because Stevenson is very well known thanks to his TUF win, but I’ll have small action on Stevenson here. Stevenson by decision, primarily winning on the cards due to multiple takedowns.

Andrei Arlovski vs Tim Sylvia
Andrei Arlovski -247
Tim Sylvia +227

I’m really split on this fight. I don’t think I need to go in detail on either fighter – Arlovski is the Russian Sambo fighter who reeled off six straight UFC victories including a submission victory over Sylvia the first time they met. But his upset loss to Sylvia in their second meeting drops his MMA record to a less-than-impressive 9-4 record. Those who are MMA fans beyond the USA’s UFC know that neither Arlovski or Sylvia are considered anywhere near the best MMA heavyweights in the world: in fact they’re probably near the bottom of a top ten list behind guys like “Minotauro” Nogueira, Fedor, Emelianenko, Mirko "Cro Cop" Filipovic, Josh Barnett, possibly even others. Until there is more extensive crossover in heavyweights between Pride, K1, and UFC, we’re going to see the best UFC heavyweights – who are a very small pool – keep fighting each other over and over again.

I think this line is pretty fairly set. I think Arlovski wins this fight about three times out of four. While Timmy did manage to drop him last time, Sylvia was knocked down first and had Arlovski not gotten overly aggressive trying to finish him, I think we would have seen Arlovski domination. I expect this fight to go a little slower than the previous two: but we’re still not getting out of the first round. Sylvia definitely has a puncher’s chance, but lighting won’t strike twice. Arlovski by first round KO around the four minute mark.

Tito Ortiz vs Ken Shamrock
Tito Ortiz -500
Ken Shamrock +450

There are certainly a couple questions in this fight. Tito has returned very, very quickly from a serious knee injury. Its reported that his training camp is no where near as intense as its been in past fights, meaning we may see a similar fight to the Ortiz / Griffin fight which resulted in a dominant Tito first round and then two very close rounds to follow. Shamrock certainly doesn’t have the tools or the stamina to do much of anything to Tito – Tito has proven that he can take a big punch: watch him battle Randy Couture at UFC 44 or go toe-to-toe with Chuck Liddell for a full round in UFC 47. Shamrock is a long way from his prime fighting days. He hasn’t submitted anyone in five years, and in the last four years he’s 1-4 with his only win over a badly aging Kimo Leopoldo. In the same five year span, Ortiz is 7-2 with his only losses to two of the UFC’s best ever, the aforementioned fights against Couture in his prime and against Liddell as Chuck moved to the top of the mountain.

Shamrock certainly doesn’t have the tools to win this fight – he literally doesn’t even have a puncher’s chance. The true line on this fight should be closer to -1900 Ortiz, even if Tito is only 85%. I look for Tito to try to put this one away early: if he knows his conditioning and his knee are both not up to par, he’s going to try to ground and pound a quick victory. Shamrock has certainly proved over the years he can take a beating, so I’ll give him two rounds. Tito by TKO (stoppage by Big John) in the second round.

Jeff Monson vs Anthony Perosh
Jeff Monson -547
Anthony Perosh +497

Monson is a well-known world-class submission wrestler fighting with American Top Team. Monson is a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu brown belt, and is a two-time Abu Dhabi Submission Fighting world champion among several other fighting honors. Monson has a 21-5 MMA record but hasn’t lost since he lost a decision to Forrest Griffin in the World Extreme Fighting Championships… in June of 2002. Perosh is an Australian fighter with a BJJ blackbelt and a 5-1 MMA record, primarily fights in Australia in a series called the Spartan Reality Fight Series. Perosh trains under Carlos Machado, and teaches alongside Elvis Sinosic at Sinosic-Perosh Martial Arts in Sydney Australia

This fight is an interesting breakdown. At the current odds, Monson is being predicted to win 85% of the time. Perosh has excellent ground skills and very strong jiu-jitsu, and has been competing in MMA for more than ten years, but hasn’t fought in MMA recently, focusing on pure grappling contests. If you’re interested you can see a clip of Perosh highlights from the Sinosic-Perosh website here. Its set to Kickstart My Heart – come on, how can you not like that. I’m not a fan of Monson – he’s delivered us a number of snooze-fests over the years especially the last bout vs Marcio Cruz in UFC 59. I think Perosh does have a slight chance here if his jiu-jitsu is as good as its reported, so I’m going to go with Perosh by submission (choke) in the second. Its certainly a longshot, but I’m going to play it.

Drew Fickett vs Kurt Pellegrino
Drew Fickett -146
Kurt Pellegrino +136

One of the more interesting bouts on the card overall. A classic newcomer vs veteran matchup. Fickett is 26-4 in MMA and trains with Arizona Combat Sports under Trevor Lally (Muay Thai) and Gustavo Dantas (BJJ). We saw Fickett lose to Nick Diaz in UFC:51, and then go 2-1 against a trio of Joshes in his last three UFC fights: submitting Neer and Koshcheck at UFN:1 and UFN:2 before getting submitted by Burkman in UFN:3. On the other hand, Pellegrino is an up-and-coming fighter with a strong wrestling and grappling background, with 7 amateur MMA wins before turning pro, where he won his first fight, lost his second in mid-2004, and has since reeled off five consecutive wins. Kurt has a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu under Hermes Franca and a decorated resume including a Pan Ams gold medal, WEC North American champion, is a five-time Grapplers Quest superfight champion, and has qualified for the Abu Dhabi Submission Fighting Championships for 2007. Pelligrino is the hot fighter right now, and Fickett is coming off his first UFC loss. Both have significant motivation to win this fight, but my money is on the slight underdog and the significantly superior grappler. Pellegrino by submission setup by strikes in the second.

Gilbert Aldana vs Cheick Kongo
Gilbert Aldana +114
Cheick Kongo -124

Aldana is a Rage In The Cage superheavyweight champion with a 5-0 record in RITC. However, Aldana lost to Paul Buentello in his UFC debut in UFC:57 Kongo is a hard-striking Frenchman with a wealth of fighting experience (Muay Thai record of 18-1, free fight record of 29-2, MMA record of 7-2-1) but is in his octagon debut. Aldana did not impress me at all in UFC:57, so I’m going with the hard-hitting Frenchman here. Kongo by KO in the first round.

Josh Neer vs Josh Burkman
Josh Neer -112
Josh Burkman +102

Neer is a wrestler and Muay Thai fighter who trains under Pat Miletich and Miletich Martial Arts. Burkman is a Team Quest fighter who we’ve seen on the undercards of the previous two Ultimate Fight Nights (3+4), where he’s 1-1. Neer has a much more extensive MMA record, and fought on those same Ultimate Fight Nights with a 2-0 record there submitting Melvin Guillard and winning a unanimous decision over Joe Stevenson. Burkman and Neer do share a common opponent – Neer lost to Drew Ficket via rear naked choke in the first Ultimate Fight Night in August 2005. Burkman caught Ficket in a guillotine in the first round at UFN:3 in Janurary this year. That being said, the Miletich advantage should provide Neer enough of a preparation advantage to win this fight. Neer by submission in the third.

Units Transacted: feel free to cut these in half, etc

Frank Mir -250: 2.5 units to win 1 unit

Joe Stevenson +191 1 unit to win 1.9 units

Andrei Arlovski -247 2.47 units to win 1 unit

Tito Ortiz -500 20 units to win 4 units

Anthony Perosh +497 1 unit to win 4.97 units

Kurt Pellegrino +136 2 units to win 2.72 units

Cheick Kongo -124 3.72 units to win 3 units

Josh Neer -112 3.36 units to win 3 units