Idol week 4
I think this week's going to be tough. I think Mandisa at +408 is probably the single best value and if you wanted to vote just one line that's where i'd recommend.
The official pick of the week is to arbitrage the following three:
Selection 1 : American Idol
Who will be eliminated on April 5th, 2006?
801) Bucky Covington +230
Risking 100.00 to Win 230.00 USD ---
802) Ace Young +297
Risking 85.19 to Win 253.00 USD ---
805) Mandisa +408
Risking 67.65 to Win 276.00 USD
With a scenario of;
Bucky eliminiated: +$77.16
Ace eliminiated: +$85.35
Mandisa eliminated: +$90.81
Based on Elliot's low busy percentages (courtesy dialidol and my own calling) there's a strong possiblity he's going to be bottom three this week, but I don't think he'll be the one kicked so I'm not including him in the arbitrage.
"season" record: 2-1 on eliminations, +1.53 units
For record keeping, I will count as a win if this arbitrage hits and a loss if it does not (i.e. Elliot gets kicked).
Please note on the (in my opinion very outside chance) this arbitrage does not hit, a loss will result in a 2.52 unit loss, so if you're not comfortable adjust your units down (just cut the units in half above: .5 unit on Bucky, .426 units on Ace, .338 units on Mandisa for a total of 1.264 units at risk, etc)
The official pick of the week is to arbitrage the following three:
Selection 1 : American Idol
Who will be eliminated on April 5th, 2006?
801) Bucky Covington +230
Risking 100.00 to Win 230.00 USD ---
802) Ace Young +297
Risking 85.19 to Win 253.00 USD ---
805) Mandisa +408
Risking 67.65 to Win 276.00 USD
With a scenario of;
Bucky eliminiated: +$77.16
Ace eliminiated: +$85.35
Mandisa eliminated: +$90.81
Based on Elliot's low busy percentages (courtesy dialidol and my own calling) there's a strong possiblity he's going to be bottom three this week, but I don't think he'll be the one kicked so I'm not including him in the arbitrage.
"season" record: 2-1 on eliminations, +1.53 units
For record keeping, I will count as a win if this arbitrage hits and a loss if it does not (i.e. Elliot gets kicked).
Please note on the (in my opinion very outside chance) this arbitrage does not hit, a loss will result in a 2.52 unit loss, so if you're not comfortable adjust your units down (just cut the units in half above: .5 unit on Bucky, .426 units on Ace, .338 units on Mandisa for a total of 1.264 units at risk, etc)
posted by Performify at 3:53 PM
1 Comments:
Results:
bottom three were Mandisa, Elliot and Paris.
Paris was sat first, but not with any comment about Paris / Elliot being lower / higher in votes.
Mandisa was eliminated as predicted.
"season" record: 3-1 on elimination picks. +2.4381 units
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