UFC 58 full card predictions
This Saturday, March 4th is UFC 58: USA vs Canada. If you're in the KC area we're pay-per-viewing the event, and of course playing poker ahead of time, so drop me an email or comment if you're interested in an invite. Like last time, I'll post my full card picks here.
Unlike many past UFCs, I'm not calling a lot of upsets here. For the most part, many of these US-based UFC fighters are significantly superior to their Candadian counterparts and I do not predict significant upsets, with one notable exception.
UFC 57 results: 7-2 on picks. Prior results posted here
Tom Murphy vs Chistophe Midoux
Tom Murphy -158
Chistophe Midoux +148
UFC debut for both fighters. Tom Murphy was defeated on TUF2 by Rashad Evans by unanimous decision, but was hampered by a knee injury for the fight. Midoux is a black belt in Kyokushin Karate and is currently a contender in the TKO HW Division. Middoux's biggest name fight was a loss to Jeremy Horn in the second round of a fight in TKO 11 back in late 2002. Both fighters are 31 years old, Murphy is 4-1 in MMA competition whereas Midoux has almost three times the fight with a record of 9-4. Midoux is an OK BJJ fighter with great standup, however Murphy has excellent ju-jitsu himself with solid striking to back it up. This fight appears to be one that the UFC has handcrafted to give Murphy a good return fight, as he matches up very well with Midoux and should win this match easily in the second round via submission.
Yves Edwards vs Mark Hominick
Yves Edwards -522
Mark Hominick +472
Main story here is the return of the lightweights to the UFC with these two 155-pounders. Yves Edwards was last seen in the UFC knocking out Josh ‘The Punk’ Thomson in the first round at UFC 49 in August of 2004. Edwards is one of the pound-for-pound best in mixed martial arts. Hominick is coming up from the 145-pound weight class to fight at 155. Edwards has never been knocked out in his MMA career. Edwards is also credited as the founder of the style known as "Thug-Jitsu". You've got to love that. Hominick will be a live underdog as this should be a good fight and they'll both go toe-to-toe at each other striking heavily, however Edwards is a heavy favorite for a reason. Edwards wins by KO in the second round.
Kenny Florian vs Sam Stout
Kenny Florian -155
Sam Stout +145
Florian lost the finale versus Diego Sanchez in the first season of TUF. Florian then came back and won against Alex Karalexis at Ultimate Fight Night and then Kit Cope on the undercard of TUF2. Kit Cope was a Mui Thai standout striker, and that draws significant parallels to his current fight against Sam "Hands of Stone" Stout. Stout is an expert at K-1 style kickboxing and Muay Thai but is less skilled on the ground. Florian has cut weight from weighing 180 down for this fight at 155, where he's down to stay, and should have some significant size advantage as naturally weighing more than 155. Just as with the Cope fight, this is going to come down to Florian's ability to withstand some heavy blows from the standup fighter in Stout, and get the fight to the ground. Assuming Florian can get the fight on the ground, he'll have little trouble submitting Stout with his superior Brazilian Ju-Jitsu skills. This is a classic striker versus grappler battle, and Stout is certainly a live underdog with his punching power. If Stout were a larger underdog I'd probably be on him here, however at -155 Florian is the predicted winner by submission in the third round.
Nate Marquardt vs Joe Doerksen
Nate Marquardt -234
Joe Doerksen +214
Marquardt is a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu Blackbelt, holds a 2nd deg blackbelt in Pancrase MMA/Jiu-Jitsu, and has won King of Pancrase seven times. Doerksen is a solid vetran fighter, with wins over Chris Leben, Patrick Cote, Dennis Kang, and John Alessio. But he was beaten by Joe Riggs in UFC 49 (Sept 04). Marquardt has a somewhat similar style to Riggs (BBJ, striking, well rounded) but is significantly superior fighter to Riggs in my opinion. Marquardt hasn't lost since November 2003, winning his last three fights including his most recent win by unanimous decision over Ivan Salaverry at Ultimate Fight Night. Doerksen fought six times in 2005, and has lost two of his last three. Marquardt wins this one in a landslide. This is another reasonable odds fight to load up on.
Mike Swick vs Steve Vigneault
Mike Swick -603
Steve Vigneault +543
If you're an MMA junkie you probably know Mike Swick best as the host of UFC.com’s ‘Real Quick with Mike Swick’ video programs. Quick Mike Swick lost to Stephan Bonnar in TUF season 1, but then has gone 9-1 since he's "gone pro" with his only loss to TUF'er Chris Leben (who is an impressive 14-1) in a World Extreme Cagefighting event. Swick has been sidelined due to injury (knee) since August of 2005, this will be his first fight back. He says he is fully reabilitated and in fact says on his blog that "On March 4th I will be the most aggressive, most explosive, and most powerful I have ever been." Vigneault is a hard puncher with knockout ability and a ju-jitsu background, but has lost - in fact has been knocked out in - two of his last three fights. Swick is a member of the American Kickboxing Academy and trains with Paul Buentello. Look for Swick to make a triumphant return to the ring. Vigneault’s five losses have ended by KO/TKO and Swick will make it six with a first round KO. This is the biggest mismatch on the cards (as the line echos).
Rich Franklin vs David Loiseau
Rich Franklin -277
David Loiseau +227
Loiseau brings in explosive standup, with what is generally regarded as the strongest elbow strikes in MMA today. Franklin is the "new breed" of MMA fighter in the line of Chuck Liddel or Matt Hughes: big, strong, explosive striker with great takedowns, quality submissions, and great speed. Franklin has also been spending time in Davenport, IA with the Miletich Camp (home of Matt Hughes, Tim Silvia, and of course Pat Miletich).
They've shared a number of common opponents that they both beat up on: Both Franklin and Loiseau beat the hell out of Evan Tanner (UFC 53 and Ultimate Fight Night 2 respectively), but that didn't tell us much: Loiseau only needed two rounds, where Franklin needed four rounds to stop the fight but was clearly ahead the entire time. Likewise both beat Curtis Stout, however Loiseau took the fight to (unanimous decision) whereas Franklin beat Stout by submission (tap out due to mounted punches) halfway through the second round of their fight. However there's one common opponent that they didn't both beat: Loiseau was beaten by Jorge "El Conquistador" Rivera on 9/26/2003 in UFC 44. Rivera then went on to lose to Rich Franklin in UFC 50 on 10/22/2004.
Franklin is 15-1, with his only loss to the extremely impressive Ryoto "Lyoto" Machida in the 2003 Inoki MMA Festival. Machida has beaten Stephan Bonnar, Franklin and BJ Penn and is undefeated himself. Loiseau is 14 - 4, with two of Loiseau’s four losses via submission (to Jeremy Horn and in his first fight against Justin Bruckmann), and his tendency to give up his back and his mediocre ground skills make him the underdog in this fight. Loiseau has an impressive knack for getting out of bad situations on the ground, but he does not have excellent ground defense and has relied upon his escape ability rather than his defense on the ground.
All in all, I expect this title fight to be a good bout. Loiseau is very much a live underdog, his ability to pull an upset will hinge around his ability to open a cut on Franklin with his elbows and get the fight stopped due to a cut. However Franklin has not ever cut easily and I expect him to succesfully defend his title here, in a great fight. This is by no means my best fight of the night, however the line has moved in my direction: Franklin opened as a 3:1 favorite and the money moved in on Loiseau. I believe now at 2.7:1 Franklin is now the correct pick, the value has moved out of the Loiseau line. But I can't argue with Loiseau when he was a 3:1 underdog as a +EV line as he has more than a 3:1 shot of winning this fight. However, I call this as victory to Franklin by submission (rear naked choke) in the fourth round.
B.J. Penn vs Georges St. Pierre
Georges St. Pierre -150
B.J. Penn +140
Penn is, of course, returning to the Octagon for the first time since his title-winning effort over Matt Hughes in January of 2004, having resolved the legal dispute with the UFC (contract dispute over his taking a jump to K1 for an "offer he couldn't refuse" despite a provision in his expired UFC contract that if he won a title he would fall under contract automatically again) which forced the stripping of his belt. Penn is facing the consensus number one challenger in GSP, and the winner will almost certainly take on Matt Hughes for the belt.
Let me start off by saying I think this is going to be one of the ten best fights in UFC history. GSP is one of the best active fighters in the world. But in my opinion, BJ Penn is among the greatest MMA fighters ever and is a notch above St. Pierre.
St. Pierre trains with MMA standouts like David Loiseau and Patrick Cote on the Triumph Fight Team. GSP is a Brazillian Ju-Jitsu fighter, with great ground and pound to match his submission skills. I'm a GSP fan, and I picked him over Frank Trigg in UFC 54 and over Sean Sherk in UFC 56.
Common opponents is of course an important data point in MMA fighting. And its one of the biggest facts in this fight, in my opinion. On 1/31/04, B.J. Penn handed Matt Hughes his only loss since early 2001, in a very decisive win. Hughes is of course a legend in the sport, with an impressive 38-4 record. And win #36 for Hughes came in UFC 50 on 10/22/2004, with a win by submission over...(drumroll)... Georges St. Pierre. That is GSP's only loss on his 11-1 record. As for Penn, he has only one legitimate loss on his 10-2-1 record, a close decision loss to the aformentioned Ryoto "Lyoto" Machida (who TKO'd Rich Franklin) in March 2005 in K-1. Penn also has a bullshit majority decision loss to Jens Pulvier from UFC 35 (Jan 2002) which was a very unfair decision in most people's opinion. Penn also fought Caol Uno to a draw in their rematch in UFC 41, after Penn won their first fight by knockout in UFC 34.
I think this quote from Penn sums up my entire attitude about this fight:
St. Pierre has only been to the third round twice in his career – in decision wins over Karo Parisyan and Jason Miller – but he’s never been in a three or five round war whereas Penn has been in several. St. Pierre might have a slight edge in physical strength, but Penn's superior BJJ skills, his superior striking, his superior stamina, and his experience will be the difference in this fight. Ultimately i'm going to watch for weigh-in on Friday before I load up on this fight, but assuming Penn shows up for weigh-in on weight and in shape, I will max this fight on Penn. Penn wins by submission in the third round.
Unlike many past UFCs, I'm not calling a lot of upsets here. For the most part, many of these US-based UFC fighters are significantly superior to their Candadian counterparts and I do not predict significant upsets, with one notable exception.
UFC 57 results: 7-2 on picks. Prior results posted here
Tom Murphy vs Chistophe Midoux
Tom Murphy -158
Chistophe Midoux +148
UFC debut for both fighters. Tom Murphy was defeated on TUF2 by Rashad Evans by unanimous decision, but was hampered by a knee injury for the fight. Midoux is a black belt in Kyokushin Karate and is currently a contender in the TKO HW Division. Middoux's biggest name fight was a loss to Jeremy Horn in the second round of a fight in TKO 11 back in late 2002. Both fighters are 31 years old, Murphy is 4-1 in MMA competition whereas Midoux has almost three times the fight with a record of 9-4. Midoux is an OK BJJ fighter with great standup, however Murphy has excellent ju-jitsu himself with solid striking to back it up. This fight appears to be one that the UFC has handcrafted to give Murphy a good return fight, as he matches up very well with Midoux and should win this match easily in the second round via submission.
Yves Edwards vs Mark Hominick
Yves Edwards -522
Mark Hominick +472
Main story here is the return of the lightweights to the UFC with these two 155-pounders. Yves Edwards was last seen in the UFC knocking out Josh ‘The Punk’ Thomson in the first round at UFC 49 in August of 2004. Edwards is one of the pound-for-pound best in mixed martial arts. Hominick is coming up from the 145-pound weight class to fight at 155. Edwards has never been knocked out in his MMA career. Edwards is also credited as the founder of the style known as "Thug-Jitsu". You've got to love that. Hominick will be a live underdog as this should be a good fight and they'll both go toe-to-toe at each other striking heavily, however Edwards is a heavy favorite for a reason. Edwards wins by KO in the second round.
Kenny Florian vs Sam Stout
Kenny Florian -155
Sam Stout +145
Florian lost the finale versus Diego Sanchez in the first season of TUF. Florian then came back and won against Alex Karalexis at Ultimate Fight Night and then Kit Cope on the undercard of TUF2. Kit Cope was a Mui Thai standout striker, and that draws significant parallels to his current fight against Sam "Hands of Stone" Stout. Stout is an expert at K-1 style kickboxing and Muay Thai but is less skilled on the ground. Florian has cut weight from weighing 180 down for this fight at 155, where he's down to stay, and should have some significant size advantage as naturally weighing more than 155. Just as with the Cope fight, this is going to come down to Florian's ability to withstand some heavy blows from the standup fighter in Stout, and get the fight to the ground. Assuming Florian can get the fight on the ground, he'll have little trouble submitting Stout with his superior Brazilian Ju-Jitsu skills. This is a classic striker versus grappler battle, and Stout is certainly a live underdog with his punching power. If Stout were a larger underdog I'd probably be on him here, however at -155 Florian is the predicted winner by submission in the third round.
Nate Marquardt vs Joe Doerksen
Nate Marquardt -234
Joe Doerksen +214
Marquardt is a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu Blackbelt, holds a 2nd deg blackbelt in Pancrase MMA/Jiu-Jitsu, and has won King of Pancrase seven times. Doerksen is a solid vetran fighter, with wins over Chris Leben, Patrick Cote, Dennis Kang, and John Alessio. But he was beaten by Joe Riggs in UFC 49 (Sept 04). Marquardt has a somewhat similar style to Riggs (BBJ, striking, well rounded) but is significantly superior fighter to Riggs in my opinion. Marquardt hasn't lost since November 2003, winning his last three fights including his most recent win by unanimous decision over Ivan Salaverry at Ultimate Fight Night. Doerksen fought six times in 2005, and has lost two of his last three. Marquardt wins this one in a landslide. This is another reasonable odds fight to load up on.
Mike Swick vs Steve Vigneault
Mike Swick -603
Steve Vigneault +543
If you're an MMA junkie you probably know Mike Swick best as the host of UFC.com’s ‘Real Quick with Mike Swick’ video programs. Quick Mike Swick lost to Stephan Bonnar in TUF season 1, but then has gone 9-1 since he's "gone pro" with his only loss to TUF'er Chris Leben (who is an impressive 14-1) in a World Extreme Cagefighting event. Swick has been sidelined due to injury (knee) since August of 2005, this will be his first fight back. He says he is fully reabilitated and in fact says on his blog that "On March 4th I will be the most aggressive, most explosive, and most powerful I have ever been." Vigneault is a hard puncher with knockout ability and a ju-jitsu background, but has lost - in fact has been knocked out in - two of his last three fights. Swick is a member of the American Kickboxing Academy and trains with Paul Buentello. Look for Swick to make a triumphant return to the ring. Vigneault’s five losses have ended by KO/TKO and Swick will make it six with a first round KO. This is the biggest mismatch on the cards (as the line echos).
Rich Franklin vs David Loiseau
Rich Franklin -277
David Loiseau +227
Loiseau brings in explosive standup, with what is generally regarded as the strongest elbow strikes in MMA today. Franklin is the "new breed" of MMA fighter in the line of Chuck Liddel or Matt Hughes: big, strong, explosive striker with great takedowns, quality submissions, and great speed. Franklin has also been spending time in Davenport, IA with the Miletich Camp (home of Matt Hughes, Tim Silvia, and of course Pat Miletich).
They've shared a number of common opponents that they both beat up on: Both Franklin and Loiseau beat the hell out of Evan Tanner (UFC 53 and Ultimate Fight Night 2 respectively), but that didn't tell us much: Loiseau only needed two rounds, where Franklin needed four rounds to stop the fight but was clearly ahead the entire time. Likewise both beat Curtis Stout, however Loiseau took the fight to (unanimous decision) whereas Franklin beat Stout by submission (tap out due to mounted punches) halfway through the second round of their fight. However there's one common opponent that they didn't both beat: Loiseau was beaten by Jorge "El Conquistador" Rivera on 9/26/2003 in UFC 44. Rivera then went on to lose to Rich Franklin in UFC 50 on 10/22/2004.
Franklin is 15-1, with his only loss to the extremely impressive Ryoto "Lyoto" Machida in the 2003 Inoki MMA Festival. Machida has beaten Stephan Bonnar, Franklin and BJ Penn and is undefeated himself. Loiseau is 14 - 4, with two of Loiseau’s four losses via submission (to Jeremy Horn and in his first fight against Justin Bruckmann), and his tendency to give up his back and his mediocre ground skills make him the underdog in this fight. Loiseau has an impressive knack for getting out of bad situations on the ground, but he does not have excellent ground defense and has relied upon his escape ability rather than his defense on the ground.
All in all, I expect this title fight to be a good bout. Loiseau is very much a live underdog, his ability to pull an upset will hinge around his ability to open a cut on Franklin with his elbows and get the fight stopped due to a cut. However Franklin has not ever cut easily and I expect him to succesfully defend his title here, in a great fight. This is by no means my best fight of the night, however the line has moved in my direction: Franklin opened as a 3:1 favorite and the money moved in on Loiseau. I believe now at 2.7:1 Franklin is now the correct pick, the value has moved out of the Loiseau line. But I can't argue with Loiseau when he was a 3:1 underdog as a +EV line as he has more than a 3:1 shot of winning this fight. However, I call this as victory to Franklin by submission (rear naked choke) in the fourth round.
B.J. Penn vs Georges St. Pierre
Georges St. Pierre -150
B.J. Penn +140
Penn is, of course, returning to the Octagon for the first time since his title-winning effort over Matt Hughes in January of 2004, having resolved the legal dispute with the UFC (contract dispute over his taking a jump to K1 for an "offer he couldn't refuse" despite a provision in his expired UFC contract that if he won a title he would fall under contract automatically again) which forced the stripping of his belt. Penn is facing the consensus number one challenger in GSP, and the winner will almost certainly take on Matt Hughes for the belt.
Let me start off by saying I think this is going to be one of the ten best fights in UFC history. GSP is one of the best active fighters in the world. But in my opinion, BJ Penn is among the greatest MMA fighters ever and is a notch above St. Pierre.
St. Pierre trains with MMA standouts like David Loiseau and Patrick Cote on the Triumph Fight Team. GSP is a Brazillian Ju-Jitsu fighter, with great ground and pound to match his submission skills. I'm a GSP fan, and I picked him over Frank Trigg in UFC 54 and over Sean Sherk in UFC 56.
Common opponents is of course an important data point in MMA fighting. And its one of the biggest facts in this fight, in my opinion. On 1/31/04, B.J. Penn handed Matt Hughes his only loss since early 2001, in a very decisive win. Hughes is of course a legend in the sport, with an impressive 38-4 record. And win #36 for Hughes came in UFC 50 on 10/22/2004, with a win by submission over...(drumroll)... Georges St. Pierre. That is GSP's only loss on his 11-1 record. As for Penn, he has only one legitimate loss on his 10-2-1 record, a close decision loss to the aformentioned Ryoto "Lyoto" Machida (who TKO'd Rich Franklin) in March 2005 in K-1. Penn also has a bullshit majority decision loss to Jens Pulvier from UFC 35 (Jan 2002) which was a very unfair decision in most people's opinion. Penn also fought Caol Uno to a draw in their rematch in UFC 41, after Penn won their first fight by knockout in UFC 34.
I think this quote from Penn sums up my entire attitude about this fight:
“I saw him (St. Pierre) get down on his knees and he begged for the title shot,” said Penn, referring to St. Pierre’s public request for a title shot after his win over Sean Sherk last November. “Now he’s got it. I still believe I’m the champion – I don’t know where Hughes got his belt from – and this is my first title defense. I’m gonna make my second title defense against Matt Hughes, and then we’re gonna see where I take it from there."
"Yes, I am the real UFC welterweight champion. I feel as though this will be my first defense of the title. I don’t care what anybody says: Matt Hughes is just a paper champion. Hughes is not the true champion. I am. He was given that belt. I am going to annihilate St. Pierre and then for my second defense, I will allow Hughes the chance to fight me for my title.”
St. Pierre has only been to the third round twice in his career – in decision wins over Karo Parisyan and Jason Miller – but he’s never been in a three or five round war whereas Penn has been in several. St. Pierre might have a slight edge in physical strength, but Penn's superior BJJ skills, his superior striking, his superior stamina, and his experience will be the difference in this fight. Ultimately i'm going to watch for weigh-in on Friday before I load up on this fight, but assuming Penn shows up for weigh-in on weight and in shape, I will max this fight on Penn. Penn wins by submission in the third round.
posted by Performify at 2:32 PM
6 Comments:
I know know roughly 2000% more about UFC than I ever did before. Unfortunately that means I am now considering gambling on it.
Dude, if you ever stop doing these it will make me very sad.
Can't wait to hear your final decision on the GSP fight...I've never seen Penn in action, so I'll be looking forward to more thoughts.
For those holding off, I'm blasting away on BJ Penn full force.
Pinny has +124 with a $5k max.
Final units transacted for scoring perspective.
Grading on WA lines from Pinny as I type this.
Yves Edwards: -502 : 10.04 units to win 2 units
Marquardt -221 : 13.26 units to win 6 units
Swick -582 : 5.82 units to win 1 unit
Franklin -252 : 10.08 units to win 4 units
Penn +124 : 20 units to win 24.8 units
Feel free to adjust as needed within the ratio given. For example:
Yves Edwards: -502 : 5.02 units to win 1 units
Marquardt -221 : 6.63 units to win 3 units
Swick -582 : 2.91 units to win .5 unit
Franklin -252 : 5.04 units to win 2 units
Penn +124 : 10 units to win 12.4 units
Obviously BJ Penn is my bet of the fight. Marquardt is my clear #2
BetEagle has a couple better lines than Pinny but lower limits. If you're transacting smaller units you might consider them. Not affiliated in the slightest:
For the record re: Penn, i have heard first hand from Vegas that he looked terrific at 169 weighin in. It was reported that he was at 172 waking up this morning, which means he was in perfect position. I have also heard firsthand from someone in the MMA community (independant person and not even really much of a fan of penn) who met with him on Jan 20th (at Rumble on the Rock) that Penn was 178 at that time. Which means he's been in fighting shape for quite some time. Great to hear. For the record i've got the maximuum wagered on him across every site that I've found that has a MMA line, if you're looking for a measure of my confidence here.
That being said I certainly can be wrong here. This is not the lock of the century, if you're looking for that, look elsewhere. However if you're looking for a +EV betting line and can wager within your limits, take BJ Penn.
For those watching the Penn line has jumped back up to +118 on Pinny. Its also +115 on Bodog which isn't bad there either.
Pinnacle has launched the other two fights finally:
Spencer Fisher vs Sam Stout
11 Spencer Fisher -245
12 Sam Stout +225
Fischer holds a blue belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, and he trains with G.S.P. He's 17-1 with a pretty impressive opponent record. He just fought on 2/17 but he will win pretty easily here.
Jason Lambert vs Rob McDonald
Maximum Wager: 500.00 USD
13 Jason Lambert -325
14 Rob McDonald +295
I really don't have an opinion here, as I've not had time to research McDonald. but if I were picking I'd stick with Lambert (who I do know) as the favorite.
Found a full weigh-in video. Low quality but here it is:
Fight video from Sherdog.com
Final results:
Great UFC, with only one dissapointing decision.
Yves Edwards: -502 : LOSS -10.04 units
Yves clearly won round one, then in round two got rocked with a big shot to the body, and then got caught in a triangle choke. I knew Hominick was a live underdog (i posted as such) and I really should have stuck with him at the 5:1 price. My bad.
Marquardt -221 : WIN 13.26 units to win 6 units : + 6 units
Solid fight, great fight by both, but Marquardt clearly wins the first and third round and wins the decision.
Swick -582 : WIN 5.82 units to win 1 unit +1 unit
Easy win for Swick as expected. Win by submission (guilitine choke)
Franklin -252 : 10.08 units to win 4 units +4 units
chaser: -280: to win 4 units : +4 units
Pure domination by Franklin. Had Rich not broken his hand in round two, we would have seen a stoppage in round three.
Penn +124 : LOSS -20 units
Penn dominates round one, round two is pretty much a tie, GSP wins round three. GSP walks out of the fight with his face looking like hamburger but with the decision and the opportunity to get dominated by Hughes again. More than anything, I really wish this fight would have been five rounds. All the UFC fights really should move to five rounds, especially if they're going to only have five fights on the cards (yeah I know we had a couple cancellations, but still).
Of the three non-televised bouts, I won two (Tom Murphy and Jason Lambert) and lost one (Sam Stout beat Spencer Fisher)
Final tally: 5-3 on the night, +15 units on wins, -30 units on losses, for a grand total of -15 units transacted.
If you missed it and want to see a solid play-by-play, click over to sherdog's writeup.
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