Performify's Pigskin Picks: Superbowl
I'm posting these the week early, so that people can know where I stand on the big game as early as possible. Sorry these are later than usual, but a close friend got engaged on Friday and I was hosting a surprise party for him and was busy all day.
RESULTS and YTD SUMMARY
Postseason Picks Summary:
5-5 ATS, 6-4 SU. 4-1 on called O/U.
2-1 on posteason Game of the Week. 2-1 on postseason Tease of the Week.
Postseason Results: +4.3065 units
Final NFL regular season record: 10-7 on Game of the Week, +21.5 units as posted
Final NFL regular season record: 33-35 overall, +14.5 units for the year on all posted plays.
Combined results:
12-8 (60%) on Game of the Week, +28.14 units as posted
38-40 ATS overall, +18.8065 units NFL total YTD.
Seattle +3.5 over Pittsburgh Game of the week (duh).
My system likes this game, not quite enough to designate it as a full game of the week (if it were the regular season and other games were avaialble) but it earns the honorary moniker as the only game this week.
I believe Seattle has the offensive edge in this game, with a certain edge at running back and an edge on the offensive line. Quarterback, wide recievers and coaching matchups are very even. Despite how well Seattle has been playing on defense lately, Pittsburgh has a significant edge on the defensive side of the ball, and on special teams.
My system predicts this game at 24-21 Pittsburgh for the win but the Seattle cover. So the line at +3.5 or higher is critical. I recommend placing your bet on Seattle later in the week: the money is more heavily on Pittsburgh as the favorite, so the line should continue to move favoribly towards our side. If you have the opportunity to lock it in at +4.5 or better, go ahead and lock. Its not really likely to move much beyond 4 or 4.5. I believe that sharp money is going to move on Seattle late in the week, so I wouldn't wait until Sunday morning to lock it in: if the smart money does move in on Seattle late, the line could shift against us. I'd recommend monitoring this week and placing your bets in the middle of the week. I will be placing five units on Seattle and will probably place the bet on Wednesday or Thursday.
No real detailed writeup. You don't need it: espn.com, usatoday.com, cnnsi.com, etc etc - the game's covered in depth by the media. My system ranks the teams very even and doesn't see an edge in the "intangibles" for either team. So in what we predict to be a close game, we'll take the points.
Plays of the week:
Seattle +4: five units. Game of the week.
Seattle/Pittsburgh under 47: one unit.
Tease of the week: Seattle +10.5, Under 54: one unit. This is not a significantly +EV tease but posted for those who like to play the teasers.
RESULTS and YTD SUMMARY
Postseason Picks Summary:
5-5 ATS, 6-4 SU. 4-1 on called O/U.
2-1 on posteason Game of the Week. 2-1 on postseason Tease of the Week.
Postseason Results: +4.3065 units
Final NFL regular season record: 10-7 on Game of the Week, +21.5 units as posted
Final NFL regular season record: 33-35 overall, +14.5 units for the year on all posted plays.
Combined results:
12-8 (60%) on Game of the Week, +28.14 units as posted
38-40 ATS overall, +18.8065 units NFL total YTD.
Seattle +3.5 over Pittsburgh Game of the week (duh).
My system likes this game, not quite enough to designate it as a full game of the week (if it were the regular season and other games were avaialble) but it earns the honorary moniker as the only game this week.
I believe Seattle has the offensive edge in this game, with a certain edge at running back and an edge on the offensive line. Quarterback, wide recievers and coaching matchups are very even. Despite how well Seattle has been playing on defense lately, Pittsburgh has a significant edge on the defensive side of the ball, and on special teams.
My system predicts this game at 24-21 Pittsburgh for the win but the Seattle cover. So the line at +3.5 or higher is critical. I recommend placing your bet on Seattle later in the week: the money is more heavily on Pittsburgh as the favorite, so the line should continue to move favoribly towards our side. If you have the opportunity to lock it in at +4.5 or better, go ahead and lock. Its not really likely to move much beyond 4 or 4.5. I believe that sharp money is going to move on Seattle late in the week, so I wouldn't wait until Sunday morning to lock it in: if the smart money does move in on Seattle late, the line could shift against us. I'd recommend monitoring this week and placing your bets in the middle of the week. I will be placing five units on Seattle and will probably place the bet on Wednesday or Thursday.
No real detailed writeup. You don't need it: espn.com, usatoday.com, cnnsi.com, etc etc - the game's covered in depth by the media. My system ranks the teams very even and doesn't see an edge in the "intangibles" for either team. So in what we predict to be a close game, we'll take the points.
Plays of the week:
Seattle +4: five units. Game of the week.
Seattle/Pittsburgh under 47: one unit.
Tease of the week: Seattle +10.5, Under 54: one unit. This is not a significantly +EV tease but posted for those who like to play the teasers.
posted by Performify at 1:19 PM
1 Comments:
I've officially locked my picks for the week as I'm happy with the lines. Based on the line move i'm also upgrading Seattle to a five unit play. Final tally:
Seattle +4 -102 (Pinny) : Five units.
Seattle / Pitt under 47 -110 (WA) : one unit
Tease of the week: Seattle +10.5, Under 54: one unit
note this tease is not significantly +EV but included for those who love the teasers.
Post a Comment
<< Home