Friday, December 30, 2005

Performify's Pigskin Picks: Week 17

Last week was another third consecutive dismal one, resulting in three consecutive significantly losing weeks in 14 and 15 and 16, erasing a +13.45 unit profit that I'd shown through week 13.

Due to the unique scenarios in the NFL this week, I'm not picking a lot of straight games this week. However I believe there is a lot of value in a few games and in a few teased scenarios.

Results from the week and season:
For the Week: 0-3-1, loss on Game of the Week. -10.7 units on recommended plays.
Season: 9-7 (56.25%) on Game of the Week. 32-35 (47.76%) on overall picks. -15.05 units on recommended plays for the season.
Game of the week remains a winner (+6.5 units for the season on recommended Game of the Week plays) despite the downturn in the past three weeks for the rest.

Kansas City -7 (-108) over Bengals
I sent this pick out early, and hopefully you were already able to secure it at the line mentioned. KC has a lot to play for, and the Bengals have motivation to lose - if they win, they’ll play the red-hot Pittsburg Steelers in the first round of the playoffs, but if Cinci loses and the Patriots win the Bengals face the Jags first round. Cinci obviously has a strong desire to sit their starters for rest. Carson Palmer is not going to play. On the Chiefs side, KC needs to win to have any playoff shot (KC win, San Diego and Pittsburg loses and KC is in), and also will have strong desire to give a win for the home fans to try to put a strong finish on the disappointing season (assuming the Chiefs don't get in). Coach Dick Vermeil is probably on his way out . The Bengals are 1-5 ATS in the last six meetings with the Chiefs, and the Chiefs still boast their impressive winning streak in December / Janurary at home. Game of the week, and the only game I'm playing straight up. I'm on this game for fifteen units at -7 (-108) and it is currently my only play for the week.

Teasers: The following teasers have a lot of value in my opinion. Both Pittsburgh and Tampa are playing must-win games, however I believe the spreads (currently -13.5 on Pinnacle for both) are too large to be of value. I believe these games have value in teasing down past the seven.
KC -.5, Pittsburgh -6.5: risking 6.5 units to win 5 units
KC -.5, Tampa -6.5: risking 6.5 units to win 5 units
KC -.5, Tampa -6.5, Pittsburg -6.5: risking 5 units to win 6 units.

Tuesday, December 27, 2005

Full Tilt beta client for Mac OS X

Expect to see me on Full Tilt a little more often, thanks to finding the Full Tilt Mac OS X (beta) client download. Wireless access from my 17" powerbook, gotta love it.

PS: bonus code PERFORMIFY if you don't already have a Full Tilt account:
play online poker

Friday, December 23, 2005

Performify's Pigskin Picks: Week 16

Last week was another dismal one, resulting in two consecutive significantly losing weeks in 14 and 15, erasing a +13.45 unit profit that I'd shown up to week 13. My system loves the plays this week, and actually shows very little difference in value among the top four plays.

For the Week: 2-3, loss on Game of the Week. -6 units on recommended plays.
Season: 9-6 (60%) on Game of the Week. 32-32 (50%) on overall picks. -4.35 units on recommended plays for the season

Recommending a balanced 4-3-3-3 play this week.

San Diego -1 over Kansas City
Here come the streak-breakers. In October the Chargers dropped the Patriots 21-game home winning streak with a 41-17 victory. Last Sunday, the Chargers smashed the Colt's 13-game winning streak and their 12-game home winning streak. Now the Chargers roll in to Kansas City and are going to crack the KC 17-game winning streak in December at Arrowhead. This is an absolute must-win for both teams, but San Diego has the edge in tiebreaker and the Chiefs will need a ton of help even if they were to pull out a victory here. The Chiefs defense has been pounded for more than 400 yards and 27 or more points in their last two games. KC's playoff hopes are over: even if the Chiefs would somehow manage to beat San Diego here AND beat Cincy next week, they'd need the Chargers to lose next week The Chiefs have already lost their two must-win games, losing a close one to Dallas and failing to show up on defense against the Giants last week. The Chiefs success this year has come on the legs of Larry Johnson - but San Diego is the #1 rushing defense in the NFL. The Chiefs are going to be stuffed on the ground, and San Diego will pressure KC QB Trent Green when he drops back to pass. Green may be without WR Eddie Kennison, by far his favorite target. The Chiefs defense has been absolutely awful in the past few weeks, and one of the few defensive standouts in DE Eric Hicks is very questionable with a shoulder injury and did very limited work in practice yesterday. LaDainian Tomlinson will have decent game, opening up the run on the ground, and then Drew Brees and company will take to the air against the porous KC secondary. Brees and TE Antonio Gates will also connect several times on middle routes en route to a monster game for Gates. This is going to be a bad, bad blowout early - the Chargers get up early, and the Chiefs deflate. KC might tack on a meaningless TD or two late, but I wouldn't be surprised to see 21-7 or worse going in to the half. Anyone who thinks KC can win this game is paying attention only to the Chief's magical home record in December and being misled by their offensive firepower - and is overlooking their tremendously terrible defensive performances all season which have been magnified last week. KC's magical record in December in Arrowhead almost doesn't apply here: a ton of season ticket holders that I know aren't planning to go to the game, and literally can't give their tickets away. I've been offered, no kidding, seventeen sets of tickets this week. Chargers build a quick, early lead, and KC collapses. Stadium will be 3/4ths empty by the fourth quarter. 28-17 San Diego. Game of the Week.

Cincy -13.5 (+100) vs Buffalo
The Bengals need a win here to keep alive their drive to secure the #2 seed in the AFC behind the Colts. Cinci needs to win out, and needs Denver to lose one game, to secure the #2 seed and the coveted Wild Card weekend bye. Bills are 0-6 on the road. Buffalo owns the league's worst run defense (144.3 yards a game), have also gotten burned bad in secondary of late, allowing 387, 336 and 259 passing yards the past three weeks. The Bengals' defense leads the NFL with 30 interceptions, and should see one and maybe two in this game. Expect to hear "Rudi, Rudi, Rudi" chants on Sportscenter on Monday. Cinci opens the run game early, and blows several TDs through the air once the Bills try to walk up a safety to help against the run. 31-14 Bengals. This game is available at -13.5 +100 at Pinnacle.

Carolina -5 vs Dallas
Dallas is in the middle of the worst collapse in franchise history, losing three of their last four. After the 35-7 blowout to the Redskins, Dallas is reduced to a must-win and must-get-help scenario to make the playoffs. Looking at the bubble from the outside-in, the team's going to come out flat yet again. On the other side of the ball, Carolina needs a win to clench their playoff spot (and could clench the NFC South title if the Falcons upset Tampa Bay). Steve Smith should have a solid game against a hobbled Cowboys secondary - both Dallas CBs are injured, Anthony Henry with an abdominal strain and Aaron Glen with a high ankle sprain. Dallas' best option is going to be putting Terence Newman on Smith, but that's still a tremendous mismatch. Dallas gave up six sacks last week, and now they face Mike Rucker and Julius Peppers, who are among the league's top defensive end pairs. The Cowboys will be forced to mass protect on passing downs, which will allow Carolina to blanket the Cowboys WRs. Look for Carolina to load up against the run, and force Bledsoe to go to the air where they can blitz him extensively. Panthers CB Ken Lucas will be playing angry after getting snubbed as a third alternate to the Pro Bowl despite having a tremendous season. Look for at least one interception by Lucas. 24-14 Carolina.

Chicago -7 (+103) at Green Bay
RB Samkon Gado (partially torn MCL) being replaced by third-down back Tony Fisher. The Bears clinch the NFC North with a victory, and also keep the pressure on Seattle for home-field advantage. Chicago will want to rest its defensive starters as much as possible, which will mean building a big lead early and putting the game away so that they can rest starters. Green Bay should sit Favre in favor of Aaron Rodgers in the second half, once the Bears put the game away in the first. Chicago's whole offense is significantly upgraded with the return of QB Rex Grossman. Chicago returns FS Chris Harris and SS Mike Brown. The Chicago D is also playing for the NFL record for points allowed in a season (165, the 2000 Ravens), currently sitting at 151 allowed. Chicago has a lot to play for, Green Bay just doesn't. 21-0 Chicago in a shutout. Green Bay might see two attempts at a fieldgoal at best. Game available at Pinnacle at -7 (+103)

Tease of the Week: Cincy -6.5, Denver -6, San Diego +6, Panthers +2, Chicago PK at 7/2
While this is normally not a teaser I would play (five team 7-point 7/2), my system loves these four games so much, and loves Denver inside a touchdown. So I'm going ahead and bundling them all. Moving the Cinci and Denver games under seven is a extremely valuable play here. Chicago down to a PK also has value. Moving San Diego +6 and Carolina +2 are included to improve the payout. Two units to win seven units. If you're looking for a more conservative teaser purely on the value of moving points, I'd recommend only including Cinci, Denver, and Chicago at a 7/5 payout.


Friday, December 16, 2005

Performify's Pigskin Picks: Week 15

Last Week a disappointing 1-3 including a loss on game of the week. I thought I'd done the appropriate amount of research despite being in Vegas, but the results obviously prove otherwise. The worst week of the season for my picks. However, both the game of the week (Chicago) and the #3 game (Rams) were both inside a single possession at the end from covering or pushing, but its not like we get any credit for "close but not quite". Entering the week I was +13.45 units, and lost 11.1 units in last week's debacle. I was bailed out by a three team teaser for ten units that I placed via vegas (Rams +17 Chicago +16.5 Detroit +16) but due to not posting it here I won't claim that result and will tag the -11.1 on the tracked results. I do expect a strong rebound this week, a lot of games are identified as strong plays.

Last Week: 1-3, loss on Game of the Week. -11.1 units on recommended plays.
Season: 9-5 (64%) on Game of the Week. 30-29 (50.8%) on overall picks. +2.35 units for the season

Recommending 5-4-3-2-1 plays this week.

Kansas City +3 at New York Football Giants
This is a must-win for KC. Chiefs are 8-5 and have their next two games at home (where they are 5-1 this season) so if they can pull off this upset they have a very good shot at sneaking in to the playoffs by winning out (KC clenches a playoff spot by winning out). The Giants have injuries to two key offensive linemen, left tackle Luke Petitgout (back) and right tackle Kareem McKenzie (hamstring) - both are currently "questionable" and even if they do play will be limited. The Giants barely survived an overtime game against injury-depleted Philadelphia last week, while KC lost a heartbreaker to Dallas, missing a last-second FG which would have sent the game to overtime. KC is 3-0-1 ATS in their last four games. KC will exploit the middle of the Giants defense, targeting the gap left by injuries to key defensive players MLB Antonio Pierce and RDT William Joseph. The Giants will leave points on the table due to inefficiencies in the red zone which will be the difference: Manning has a passer rating of 58.7 in the red zone, and Giants kicker Feely has missed four fieldgoals in eleven attempts over the past three weeks. Last week, three times Giants red-zone possessions ended in field goals when touchdowns would have put the game against Philly out of reach. The Giants have also had significant trouble against the AFC West this season: In week three, they surrendered 45 points and 268 rushing yards in San Diego, and in week seven, the Broncos put 23 points and 191 rushing yards on the board in Giants Stadium. Both of those teams are very similar offensively to the Chiefs: powered by a strong running game with a solid passing attack to back it up. Larry Johnson leads the NFL in rushing since the time of the Priest Holmes injury, and he's going to drop a huge game on the Giants this week. There are a number of trends against the Chiefs here (KC is 0-5 at the Meadowlands, KC is 3-8 on the road in December under Vermeil, for example) but I believe those are going to be regressing to the mean this weekend. Chiefs 34, Giants 30 for the outright win. Game of the Week.

Dallas +3 at Washington
With both teams, 10 of their 13 games have been decided by seven points or fewer, including Washington's 14-13 victory in Dallas in Week 2. This is a huge game for both teams: whichever team loses is essentially eliminated from the playoffs, which essentially makes this a playoff game in its own right. But Dallas will be better prepared and better coached, and will cover this game if not win it outright (and I expect a push at worst) . DAL is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings with Washington, Washington is 1-3-1 ATS in their last five games. Dallas will stuff Portis and force Washington to be one-dimensional, and will double-cover Moss most of the day. On offense, Dallas faces many favorable matchups against an injury-depleted Washington defense. The Cowboys have won 14 of the last 16 meetings with Washington. 17-13 Dallas for the outright win.

Chicago -3 vs Atlanta
Chicago: NFL's #1 defense (#7 vs the rush before last week's blasting by the Steelers, now ranked #9 after that game) and #7 rushing offense. Atlanta: NFL's #1 rushing offense but #22 rushing defense. In the series versus the Falcons, Chicago has posted four straight wins at Soldier Field and seven victories in the last eight meetings. In 2001 and 2002 against Vick, Chicago MLB Brian Urlacher had three sacks, three forced fumbles, an interception and a 90-yard fumble return for a touchdown. Those were two of the best games of Urlacher's career. And, for the first time, Urlacher gets to play Vick in Chicago, where temperatures are supposed to be in the teens. Vick will also be hampered by his bruised ribs and will start but likely will not finish the game. The right side of the Falcons defense is injured ( Brady Smith and Antwan Lake) so look for Thomas Jones and Adrian Peterson to run off left guard and left tackle all day. Bears are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games. Injuries to the Chicago starting safeties is the only thing keeping this game from being ranked higher. The -3 is almost irrelevant, as no one's going to be kicking any fieldgoals in this game. 14-7 Chicago.

Pittsburgh -3.5 at Minnesota
NFL's #4 rushing defense (#8 overall) should stifle the Vikings run game and not allow them to setup their bread-and-butter play action passing plays. The Pittsburgh 3-4 should present numerous problems for the Vikings offensive line. Most importantly, the Vikings have beaten only one team with a winning record this year (their miraculous victory over the Giants, where they scored three times on special teams/defense). Steelers speedster Willie Parker will have a big game on the Metrodome turf. Both teams are in must-win to keep their playoff hopes alive, and Pittsburgh is going to come out on top big time. 20-14 Steelers.

Arizona -1 at Houston
NFL's #1 passing attack rolls in to one of the NFL's worst defenses. Arizona is 3-0-1 ATS in their last four games in Dec, while Houston is 1-5 ATS in their last six home games. Houston's only potent offensive weapon, RB Dominic Davis, is injured and is not expected to play (swelling in his knee, will be a gametime decision). Houston's #2 offensive threat Andre Johnson was limited in practice all week due to soreness in his leg (the same nagging injury that's cost him much of this season). The Texan's most important goal for the remaining three games of the season is to not win and push themselves out of the #1 draft pick spot: while they might not chose to draft Bush with Davis in the backfield, they should be able to trade Reggie Bush for a significant upgrade across their offensive line, which is what the team needs the most. 17-14 Arizona.

Tease of the Week: KC +9 Dallas +9
Five unit tease. The games themselves have value, and the added value of moving these games across winning at +3 and winning on +7 is significant enough to recommend rolling them in to the tease.


Tuesday, December 13, 2005

Detailed WPBT trip report

D-dub, Cujofan and I left Kansas City Wednesday night, on a bitter cold night during which a full twelve inches of snow blanketed our fair city. I took a dark pleasure in looking out the window of the plane and seeing the city covered in the snow that continued to fall, as we lifted off headed for warmer climes and better company.

We landed in Vegas and were at the Imperial Palace by about 10:30 Vegas time. The hospitality of the IP was simply fantastic - in addition to the affordable room prices we were given a comp package that included two free buffets, $25 in free comps, and five free drinks. The poker room also comped $3/hour of raked poker, which meant that between the comp package and our time at the tables, we three ate at the IP three times each on the house. Not bad at all. The rooms were pretty standard. Small outdated TV and a little musty, but once we aired out the room we were very pleased. A $20 slid to the check-in girl got us a three-person room without having to pay the upgrade cost, which would have cost $20/night. A bargain, to say the least.

Wednesday night not much was happening around the IP. We wandered to the poker room, where they were spreading only 2/4 limit. Didn't recognize anyone at the time. So we three decided to just hit the strip and enjoy the weather. We walked through the IP's karoke bar where an attractive blonde was butchering the Dixie Chix. We walked through the shops at Ceasers after hours. We browsed the poker room at Harrahs. Hit the burger joint at the IP for dinner on the house. And ultimately decided to call it an early night and get moving in the morning.

We got up early the next morning, took the monorail to Excalibur for their breakfast buffet, and walked next door for a poker tournament. Which Casino exactly I can't remember (maybe the Aladin?) as it turned out that the tournament wasn't at 11am like we thought, but was at 10am, so we were a half-hour late instead of a half-hour early. So we decided to hoof it back to the Excalibur where all three of us could comfortably play. D-dub hit the Excalibur's 1-3 spread limit game, while Cujofan and I hit the 1/2 No Limit game. We were shorthanded when we sat down, and basically grinded around a small bit of profit while waiting for the game to fill out. Cujofan and I stayed out of each other's way for the most part, intentionally, except on a big hand where we ran in to each other with set over set (my QQ over his JJ, both a Q and J on the flop). The most exciting hand of the session, six players saw the flop including me on the button with 67d. The flop came 8d9xKd. Early position bet out with a standard post-flop bet of about $10, and got three callers to me. Last to act, I decide that with the open-ended straight plus the flush I should try to take the pot down right now, or at least try to isolate and maybe push out a non-nut-flushdraw: I raised $100, which was quite a raise based on the table buy-in of $200 max / $100 min. UTG pushes in his last $50 or so. Caller #2 and Caller #3 both push as well. So I've got a three-way all-in in front of me, but I've got to call because its maybe $10 in to a pot of over $500 and assuming I'm up against a bigger flush my straight outs are probably clean. Sure enough, we've got a set of nines, AKo for TPTK, a nut flushdraw with Axd, and my straight/dominated flushdraw. The cowboy with the nut flush catches his diamond on the turn and the board doesn't pair the river, and the cowboy hits a big win and then immediately cashes out thereafter. That killed a lot of the action at the table, as over $500 left the table but most of the players stayed. I cashed out up about $7 after about three hours of poker, very dissapointing as I was running over the table before that four-way all-in hand. However, I managed to down about nine drinks during the three hours at the table, so I had a nice buzz on as we rolled out of the castle.

We headed back to the IP and hit the limit tables there. The games were decently juicy and I managed to run up over $75 in just over an hour. Playing with a $100 buyin at a 2/4 table and finishing up $75 in an hour gives you some idea of the game quality. I used the profits to buy in to the nightly 11pm no-limit tournament held there at the IP. The format was extremely aggressive: we started with five tables, and I was able to run over most of the field playing the LAG despite not catching any serious cards. I made the final table and actually entered the final table as third in chips. However, because of way that the format accelerated, with third in chips I only had a little more than six big blinds. So the final table would be a crapshoot. I ended up cracking in seventh place, pushing A9d from the small blind (with about 4BB left) into the big blind who had me barely covered - he called with pocket sevens, they held up, and I was bounced in seventh. If the format had allowed for a little more poker to be played, I would have easily run over that final table, but as it was I was pretty pleased with my ability to carve through the field. I considered it a nice warm-up for the WPBT tournament, especially so since I was freerolling with my 2/4 profits.

Friday we slept in and hit the IP buffet for lunch on the house, and after lunch brought a message from Donkeypuncher that he'd arrived and was waiting downstairs. I headed downstairs to join him and we caught up on life, poker, and everything else in between. We then met Joaquin and Drizz to head to the Orleans for a limit hi/lo Omaha tournament where we met up with F-train and Al. While I'm not the best O8B player in the world by a long stretch, I've clocked success at a number of O8B SNGs and was looking forward to giving it a try in this larger MTT format. The format was actually really well done, as we got a lot of chips and got to play for about two hours before the blinds got annoying. I scooped only one pot, and only saw three pots to the river - both other times having the best hand on the turn but getting counterfitted on the river. Such is O8B. Just card dead the entire time, but it was a very good time. Joaquin and I both were out early, and after sweating Drizz and F-train for a while we hit the 2/4 limit tables to kill some time. I dragged a $80 pot in the first five minutes: Joaquin approved from the next table, but the locals at mine certainly didn't appreciate me shouting "quad kings, bitches" to scoop the massive pot (I bet the flop, check-raised the turn, bet the river, three people calling down all the way). However, thereafter I had what was the worst single limit orbit of my life, getting AA twice and QQ once, and getting all three of them cracked in the same orbit. I managed to minimize my losses in all of them (single opponent staying in on the flop, obviously on the flush draw, and going in to check/call once the flush hit on the river). Cashed out up a few dollars despite the junk kickings.

Joaquin, Drizz, F-train, Donkeypuncher and I grabbed a cab back. This cab ride will be forever known as the "best cab ride evar!!!!1!", with our storyteller "Ricardo the Pussy Sucker". Ricardo regaled us with tales best untold, of getting it on in the cab with two black women who traded sexual favors for a cab ride, of his techniques for going down on a girl ("you've got to suck it like an oyster, you know man"), and other crazy stories of the things he's seen (or claimed to have seen, anyways). The cab ride might have been the most entertaining part of the trip to the Orleans. You can get more on the cab ride from Donkeypuncher and F-Train and Drizz. I was happy to pick up the cab ride, and dropped Ricardo a $9 tip on top of the fare for the entertainment.

I regrouped with D-dub and Cujofan in the room, who were still sleeping off the effects of the prior night's clubbing. We hit the IP buffet for yet another free meal on the house - it was actually pretty decent, albeit a limited selection of dishes. But well worth the price of free. We then monorailed it to the MGM for Joaquin's mixed games. Joaquin was kind enough to offer up his seat at HORSE so he could start another table, and I got to meet some of the blogger heavyweights including Daddy, the UpforPoker trifecta of Otis / CJ / G-Rob, one of my partners-in-crime for the main event last longer bet in StB, Drizz with a mountain of chips (I think he bought in for a grand), Gamecock and finally -EV. I also finally got to meet the blogfather Iggy in person. The mixed game was probably the most fun I had all trip. We were playing "Horse Pee" - Hold'Em, Omaha, Razz, Stud, Eights or Better, and mixing in Pineapple / Crazy Pineapple to end the rotation. -EV and I were keeping the table going with a number of straddles and were just having a ton of fun together. Highlight of the night for me was getting an ovation from the table after bluffing Gamecock out of a pretty big razz pot. He raised preflop which was pretty obviously representing a strong hand, and then he caught an ace on fourth street and another low card (2, maybe 3) on fifth street. On both streets I called out to the table that he'd obviously paired with that card, and I raised him each time. He was exasperated but I caught what looked like great upcards, and when I bet in to him on the final street he had to fold his hand - I turned over a full house to the table, showing what was just a massive bluff, as I had A33 rolled up and the A3 I'd hit on top combined for the full house. Great moment, big laugh for the table. Later in the evening, Drizz's moutain of chips attracted a lady in her fifties, overweight and wearing too much makeup, who joined the table for the HORSE game but specifically mentioned that she wanted to sit next to the "young gentleman with all the chips". -EV immediately jumped in to a chorus of "I ain't saying she's a gold digger..." which had me crying. Cujofan and D-dub both were playing the no limit tables all this time, and Cujofan was apparently lucky enough to get pro poker player and blogger Paul Phillips and king-of-all-bloggers Wil Wheaton seated at his table. He said it was the most fun he's ever had playing poker - check his site for more on that. I was hugely jealous, as I've long been a Paul Phillips fan, and I've been a fan of Wil's for a long time including a regular reader of his site, and buyer of both his books (Just a Geek is excellent, if you haven't read it).

We bowed out of the MGM a little early to head to Risque in Paris. Its one of my favorite clubs, with a talented in-house DJ who does an excellent job of mashing-up pop and rap hits, and always has a decent selection of talent. The club was certainly a little light, being that its the off-season (as much as there is an off-season in Vegas) but we still had a great time and there was a nice selection of hot girls to oggle. Walking home from Risque I bumped in to a disoriented seniorita from San Diego and was nice enough to escort her to her room, and actually refused an invite to come in as she really wasn't my type. Walking back in to the IP I ran in to Donkeypuncher yet again, and we canvased the IP poker room and tried to grab a bite to eat, but the burger place had closed and we gave up to call it a night.

Saturday brought the main event. We woke up plenty early and hit the IP breakfast buffet, once again on the house with our comp dollars. I helped Otis set up the room, and snagged some of the great Pokerstars swag. Pokerstars really impressed me and did a great job overall sponsoring the tournament. Their free stuff and prize pool contribution was greatly appreciated. The open bar from the IP was also a very nice touch, and was definately used. Donkeypuncher bought me a beer at 9:58a before the bar was officially open, so thanks to him I'd started drinking before ten a.m. like a true degenerate.

After listening to Barry Greinstein and Charlie Shoten, we drew seats for the tournament. I drew table ten, a tough table, one everyone referred to as the "TV" table for my starting assignment - notables included THG, Bill Rini, Pokergeek, CJ, Joanne, Otis, and the Geekette. I knew I'd be in trouble if I didn't bring my a-game. Geekette was cracked early and was replaced by RGP heavyweight Faelknight. Cujofan grabbed a picture of me at my starting table (click the pic for his full album):


Here's a picture I stole from Bill, essentially my view from the starting table.
I'm seated to the right of Geekette, just off to the right of the picture.
I managed to bust out both CJ and Otis, 2/3rds of the Up For Poker crew. Whoever ended up winning the last longer bet, feel free to transfer whatever you think appropriate to my Pokerstars account. :) Here's a recap of my tournament action:

I originally planned on LAG'ing it up early, but with such a tough table there wasn't a lot of room to make a move. I stole the blinds a couple times, but never really got too involved in many hands. I called a preflop raise from Joanne once with AKo and position, and folded to her continuation bet on the flop when I didn't find an ace or king. It was a weak move but I didn't necessarily have a good feel for her style and might well have been behind to something like TT or JJ. I did manage to steal a couple rounds of blinds, and overall was up slightly when I tangled with CJ. Faelknight from RGP is sitting to my right, and he makes the standard opening raise UTG. I call with AKo, as I've got position on him. Its folded around to CJ in late position who pushes for approximately 900 more. Faelknight looks him up but then folds pretty quickly. I take a look at the pot size and decide I can't pass this up - I figure I'm likely either a coinflip to a medium pair or I have him dominated with AT+ or tied with AK. I didn't imagine he'd play AA or KK this way - maybe KK but I really figured he'd just cold-call there with position with one of these big pocket pairs, instead of trying to push one or both of us out preflop. The more I thought about it, the more I thought I was ahead of his range from a pot-odds perspective (getting priced in to the coinflip) and so announced "time to coinflip this early.... I guess so" and called. CJ knew before I turned my hand up that he was dominated - and called out the AK before I even showed them. He was on AJh, making a good move trying to accumulate chips and hoping he'd have at least an overcard and possibly two overs if called. The rainbow flop killed any chance of a flush and was KTX so I jumped to a commanding lead. The turn brought an ace, so CJ was now drawing to only the queen (four outs). The river brings a jack, giving him two pair (aces and jacks) to my bigger two pair (aces and kings), and I had busted the luckbox. I got a cool t-shirt explaining as such ("I busted the Luckbox from UpForPoker.net").

A few orbits later, blinds are 200/400 and Otis was on the short stack, and raises my big blind to 1200 from the button. I wake up with AQ and put him all in - he's forced to call and turns over 78o I believe. My AQ holds up unimproved as the best hand. I win UpForPoker t-shirt bounty #2 ("I pwned Otis" or something similar - the shirt's in the mail).

A few hands later, we go on break, and our table is broken. I was shuffled to another table where I was also joined by Joanne from the "TV table". Turns out I'm dropped in to the big blind (disappointment #1) and sitting to my left is my friend D-dub (disappointment #2). I've also got some pretty deep stacks to my right, but no one I recognized. First hand back, D-dub pushes UTG for about 1100 chips. I've posted 600 in the big blind, and I decide I've got to call holding A3d - I figure there's a very good chance that D-dub is just on two big cards. Sure enough, he's got KQ, but he catches both a king and a queen on the flop, and catches another queen on the turn for good measure, leaving me drawing dead for the river. However, its folded to me on the next hand and I push back in to him from the small blind. I steal his big blind (I had K5o or something like that) and I'm down a net of 200 chips for the two hands (compared to if I'd just folded from the BB and folded the SB as he'd not have had enough chips to not call me), not bad at all. D-dub then gives my chips away a hand or two later, running in to QQ with AK and not catching any help.

Just a few hands later, I raise 3x the BB from the small blind with AKo and am called by Joanne in the big blind (two seats away, no one in between us). Flop was undercards and I quickly bet out a little over half my remaining stack, another 1800. Joanne thought for a moment and pushed. I had 1400 behind and was of course pot committed. Joanne announced "good call, I'm just on the draw". I guess she thought she could push me off my last 1400 chips after I'd already put ~4500 chips in the pot, or perhaps she didn't see how few chips I had behind. Either way she turned over A5o for a gutshot straight draw. She was drawing to seven outs, but I had a sick feeling in my stomach - i'd bounced from the last (online) WPBT event in a very similar scenario, by putting in more than half my remaining chips with AK on an undercard flop, clearly being pot committed but my opponent thinking they could bluff me off, and then getting the money in the middle as a big favorite and getting sucked out on. Sure enough, the turn was a blank but she caught a four on the river and I was out in 40th place. Had I doubled-up there I believe I would have been a strong favorite to make the final table, as I would have had enough chips to really run over my table. I handed over one of the KC Poker t-shirts as my bounty ("if poker was easy, it would be called Your Mom"). My shirt was a big hit, I had several people mention to me that they thought it was the best shirt there.

This was my first bust from a "major" live tournament when I got my money in the middle with the best of it and gotten sucked out on. Believe it or not. Every other time, i've usually gotten short-stacked and gotten picked off on steal attempts, usually getting my money in on the worst side of a coinflip (i.e. my overcards against a pocket pair) or occasionally running in to a monster on a steal attempt. Never before in a live tournament had I gotten all my money in the middle as a big favorite and gotten busted out on the same hand. Admitedly, I haven't played nearly the amount of live tournmanets compared to my extensive online tournament experience. But there was definately more of an emotional impact to bouncing out of this tournament - not sure if it was just because it was the blogger tournament and I was among friends, or because it was my first live tourney bounce to a suckout, or some combination thereof. I hope I was appropriately gracious and polite - I think I was, I remember giving Joanne my bounty shirt and wishing her well, and shaking the hands of several other people at the table. If I offended anyone as I busted out, I certainly apologize. And I certainly couldn't have picked a nicer person to bust to - Joanne was a lot of fun at the table and I was certainly cheering that she'd take my chips to the final table from there...

After busting out, I grabbed my stack of swag and bounced to the room to drop it off and clear my head. I returned quickly, and started sweating Cujofan. Cujofan played great, and made a run to the final table, ultimately finishing fourth. I was extremely proud of him, as I consider him my poker apprentice in many ways, and his game has surpassed mine in several areas and was good to see him take this big score. Head over to Cujofan.com to get his full writeup on his tournament finish. I snapped a bundle of final table pictures with Cujofan's camera, and I'll get those posted this week.

We crashed after the tournament. We were all pretty much exhausted. I got the wireless internet connection working for the first time all week, and spent several hours researching my football picks and placing bets. Bad picks, but thanks to throwing out a massive (unposted) teaser of three of my four picks I finished almost exactly even on the NFL action, continuing the theme of the weekend - breakeven after expenses but not getting ahead. From there, we left the room in the morning and went to New York New York to watch the games. We put our name in for a table at ESPNzone and watched the first thirty minutes of the games in their theater before getting a table. We then chowed at ESPNzone and watched all of the first round of games, before leaving for the airport. Our flight got delayed almost a full hour, which let us catch the end of the Chiefs game. We then hopped the full flight, where I entertained my neighboors watching "Oceans 12" on the powerbook (subtitles turned on for the seatmates). While I watched a movie on the planeride home, Cujo wrote up six pages of notes so he should have some great blog entries this week. I took notes during the weekend on my Treo, thus the uberpost here. Back home about 11pm local time, to reunite with the dogs, grab some dinner, and decompress from the wonderful weekend.

All-in-all, a legendary weekend. Tons of fun making new friends, and meeting old friends for the first time in person. Can't wait for the next get-together.

Sunday, December 11, 2005

Performify's Pigskin Picks: Week 14

Abbreviated picks write-up, as I'm in Vegas for a couple poker tournaments. But despite the abbreviated writeups I've done my normal ammount of research and run the same sets of numbers and calculations that I normally do for any other week. Just don't have time to bang out a quality write-up, we've got clubs to hit :)

Last week:
2-2 on the week. +2.2 units with recommended plays on the games. Win on game of the week.

Season:
9-4 (69.2%) for the season on game of the week. 29-26 (52.7%) on the year on overall picks.

Recommending top-heavy 5-4-2-1 plays this week.

Chicago +7 vs Pitts
Bears have not allowed more than 10 points in their last four games. I think everyone's already on this, but I am too... 17-14 Pittsburg for the cover. Game of the Week. Only a four-unit play at +6.5, but its widely available at +7 in Vegas and some of the sites. Good one to place late.

Raiders -3 over Jets
Jets are playing for the Reggie Bush sweepstakes. Jets have a horrific run defense, and the Raiders have Lamont Jordan and a coach that loves to pound the ball. Hold your breath, ignore the rookie QB, and load up. Jets have scored only six points total in three out of their last four games (4/4 was scoring 19 against the Saints). Just about the game of the week. 24-10 Oakland.

Rams +7 at Vikings
Three reasons: Brad Johnson. Brad Johnson. Brad Johnson. I just flat-out can't believe this Vikings team is for real. Well, four reasons: Vikings suspect secondary and a Rams team with a promising young QB that can still air the ball out. 24-21 Vikes for the Rams cover.

Detroit +6 at Green Bay
Favre throws an NFL record fourty-four interceptions in this game. 21-17 Green Bay for the cover.


Saturday, December 10, 2005

Quick update: WPBT wrapped

We just got back to the room after wrapping up the WPBT tournament, and managed to get the wireless internet connection working for the first time all week.

Local buddy and traveling companion cujofan made the final table and finished fourth overall. I was bounced in 40th.

I drew the "TV" table for my starting assignment - notables included THG, Bill Rini, Pokergeek, CJ, Joanne, Otis, and the Geekette. I knew I'd be in trouble if I didn't bring my a-game. Geekette was cracked early and was replaced by RGP heavyweight Faelknight.

I managed to bust out both CJ and Otis (2/3rds of the Up For Poker crew). Our table broke, and was shuffled to another table where I was joined by Joanne from the "TV table". Joanne busted me a handful of hands later, when I raised 3x the BB from the small blind with AKo. She called from the big blind. Flop was undercards and I bet out a little over half my remaining stack. I guess she thought she could push me off my last 1400 chips after I'd already put ~4500 chips in the pot. I of course called, and she turned over A5o for a gutshot straight draw. She was drawing to seven outs, but I had a sick feeling in my stomach - i'd bounced from the last (online) WPBT event in a very similar scenario, by putting in more than half my remaining chips with AK on an undercard flop, clearly being pot committed but my opponent thinking they could bluff me off, and then getting the money in the middle as a big favorite and getting sucked out on. Sure enough, the turn was a blank but she caught a four on the river and I was out in 40th place. Had I doubled-up there I believe I would have been a strong favorite to make the final table.

Bigger writeup to follow. Picks also to follow sometime in the next twelve hours, hopefully soon.

Monday, December 05, 2005

Heading to Vegas

you might be one of the very few bloggers that i'll actually call by their real name rather than their blogger moniker. performify is gonna be way too many syllables for how much i drink. --Iggy
This will probably be my last post before leaving town to head to the WPBT. Iggy makes a good point about the name. "Performify" (like modify, but with "perform" instead of "mod") doesn't exactly roll off the lips, so for what its worth, everyone under the sun calls me "Foster". For the many who I'll be meeting for the first time, here's a picture. I'm the seated on the left of the picture, in the blue shirt. The Edward Norton-lookalike sitting on my left is Cujofan who will be hanging with me most of the way, along with another from our posse who's not represented.

I've got tonight booked for poker as a warmup, and tomorrow will be busy making final preparations. We leave Wednesday after work and will arrive around 10:30 Vegas time. Per the opening quote, I've already spoken to the Blogfather who arrives shortly before I do - if anyone else wants to make specific plans, let me know, but I imagine most of the week will be arranged via flash mob ala Storming the Castle.

For those loyal followers of my picks, they'll be posted sometime on Friday, but since they'll be coming via Vegas I can't guarantee what time...

Friday, December 02, 2005

Performify's Pigskin Picks - Week 13

Last week was a nice turnaround, winning the game of the week and pushing on the #2 game meant a +1.9 unit profit on the week. The Dallas game was literally a coinflip (or the missed fieldgoal in the end of regulation) away from being a winner, and Arizona was in position to cover with the last play of the game, so overall it was a solid week with a positive result.

As in years past, we're running very solid on the game of the week: with the 67% win rate, if you were purely playing five units (as suggested) on the game of the week, you'd be up approximately +18 units on the season (and even more if you're getting better lines than -110).

Last week: 1-2 for the week with a push on game #2 (Dallas +3). Win on game of the week.
+1.9 units on posted picks / suggested units for the week.
Season: 27-24 for the year (53%), 8-4 on game of the week (67%)

This week, recommending a standard 5-3-2-1 graduated play. As usual, all lines listed current from Bodog.com, the best sportsbook around.

Arizona -3 at San Francisco
The Cardinals have lost five of their past six. The 49ers, losers of their past four. Someone has to win this matchup of the two worst teams in the NFC. Rackers is out for Arizona, which actually will likely force them to depend on the kicker less and get in the endzone more. One fourth-down conversion in 49ers territory could be the difference in this game.

Rookie QB Alex Smith is making his first start since suffering a knee injury October 23rd. Look for Arizona to use the safety blitz to get serious pressure on Smith, who is being protected by two rookie offensive linemen this week. The Cardinals will gun the ball downfield and force the 49ers to pass to play catch-up, and will be able to blitz Smith mercilessly in those passing situations.

The Cardinals should be running rookie J.J. Arrington almost exclusively due to a neck injury to starting RB Marcel Shipp, which is actually an advantage for the Cards due to J.J. actually having some potential with his speed and quickness, compared to Shipp being fit to sit third string on a highschool team.

Remember, Arizona dominated San Fran 31-14 in Mexico City on October 2nd this year. Cards QB Kurt Warner has also never lost as a starter against San Francisco (he's 5-0 lifetime against them). The 49ers are actually looking to start using their younger players a lot more, positioning themselves for next year (and trying to build a stronger draft position). As it stands right now, the 49ers would own the #4 overall draft position (Texans #1, Packers #2, Jets #3). There's a lot more value in the 49ers building for the future (and trying to win the Reggie Bush sweepstakes) compared to trying to win this game.

Oh, and one minor detail: the 49ers lost their best offensive lineman last week (Jeremy Newberry) and will be forced to give rookie David Baas his first NFL start (they're moving right guard Eric Heitmann to center, Baas will play right guard).

28-17 Arizona. Game of the Week.

Detroit +3 (-125) vs Minnesota
The Vikings comeback from 2-5 to 6-5 has been an impressive feat, but I'm not a believer. Minnesota is still 2-4 on the road, and this one's in the Motor City.

This is a battle of two bottom-feeding offenses: Detroit is #27 overall (#25 rush / #25 pass), Minnesota is #25 overall (#24 rush / #20 pass). However, there's a pretty significant disparity in defensive strength here: Detroit is #14 overall in defense (#25 run / #11 pass) versus the Vikings who are #28 overall (#15 rush / # 25 pass).

Expect Detroit to try to run primarily outside the tackles with toss and stretch plays, as the Vikings have done a good job shutting down the middle this season thanks to Pro Bowl tackle Pat Williams. Detroit RB Kevin Jones has been upgraded to probable, and look for Dick Jauron to give Jones a lot more touches (he understands the need to get your top RB in the game and give him 20-30 carries). However, the Vikings porous secondary hasn't done a good job shutting down many opposing QBs. Jeff Garcia's added mobility against the Vikings pass-rush is a strong positive factor, and the talented Detroit receiving corp should have a big day.

More importantly, Detroit's strong and dangerous secondary matches up well with the Vikings. The Vikes have been depending heavily on play action in their past few wins, and the big Detroit d-line should be able to shut down the run game and force the Vikes in to straight drop-back passes. Brad Johnson hasn't been good at stretching the field - he's primarily been checking off to 3- to 4-yard dumpoff routes, which lets opposing defenses jump the short routes and load up seven in the box to play against the run. Detroit will create two turnovers in this matchup (likely one interception by the speedy Lions secondary, turnover #2 could be a Vikings fumble).

Finally, according to Sagarin ratings, Detroit should be a two point favorite in this game at home - which means according to that system there's a five point disparity in this line. I think this line is strongly being affected by public perception: a public perception with the average unsophisticated NFL bettor seeing a lot of strength in the Viking's recent wins despite the team actually being very mediocre. The game is split 75% - 25% in favor of the Vikings with Wagerline. However, Detroit is 7-3 ATS in the last ten meetings with Minnesota.

This line isn't likely to move lower than +3, but you might see a reduction in the vig. This game is much more valuable at (-110) or etc. I also recommend a single unit moneyline play on Detroit to offset the vig if you're playing -120 or higher.

Detroit 24, Vikings 21 for the outright win.

Kansas City +1.5 (-115) vs Denver
The Chiefs are 16-0 at Arrowhead in December since losing to the Colts in Week 16 in 1996. The Broncos are 4-11 in Arrowhead since 1990, and the Denver franchise has won only one of 17 games in Arrowhead in December.

While Denver dominated Kansas City 30-10 at home earlier in the year (Dick Vermeil has never won as a Chiefs coach in Denver), KC dominated Denver in KC late last seaon, running up the score to a 45-17 domination.

Denver is already 2 games up on the AFC West, while this game would be nice for them its not anything close to a must-win. And Denver is up one game, with tiebreaker on Cincinnati for the second bye spot behind Indy. So Denver can literally lose this game and it doesn't affect their standings at all: they're still #2 in the AFC and still #1 in the division regardless of what the other teams do. With Kansas City's remaining tough schedule (one of the toughest remaining schedule of teams in playoff contention) they've got to get this one at home or their season is over.

Denver's offense is purely based off the run - they're the #2 rushing team in the NFL behind Atlanta, but they're only 21st in passing. The Chiefs are #5 in the NFL in stopping the run, and haven't allowed a 100-yard rusher all season and have only allowed five rushing touchdowns. Denver is the best in the NFL at stopping the run but is 28th in pass defense - KC's #5 ranked offense is #4 rushing and #13 passing. So while both teams are going to try to run, this game is going to be decided in the air, where Trent Green and the Chiefs have the edge, and where the Chiefs defense can aggressively blitz Plummer.

In the game at Denver earlier in the season, the Chiefs were without Pro Bowl LT Willie Roaf - Roaf is back, and in fact had one of the best games of his career last year against New England. Roaf's presence should help KC tremendously, compared to the early-season matchup at Denver.

This game is 63% Denver - 37% KC on Wagerline, which makes this another "fade the public" play.

31-27 KC for the outright win.

New Orleans +3.5 (-105) vs Tampa Bay
The Saints are a lot more talented than they appear on paper. The Saints usually play very well against the Bucs - the Saints lead the all-time series 17-9 versus the Bucs, and are 4-2 against Tampa Bay since the teams joined the NFC South. Each of those six games has been decided by seven points or less with the Saints taking the most recent encounter 21-17 last Dec. 19 in Raymond James Stadium. This Saints team also traditionally plays well late in the year - New Orleans has won six of their last nine games played in December and January under coach Jim Haslett. Saints QB Aaron Brooks also has a history of saving his best games for Tampa Bay. The Saints also have an aggressive pass rush, which should be able to create serious problems for Chris Simms.

The Bucs starting kicker Matt Bryant has a strained hamstring - Tood France was signed to the practice squad to kick if Bryant can't go. Either way, you've got missed fieldgoal potential all over the place.

This game is split 82% - 18% in favor of Tampa Bay at Wagerline. 6/6 Yahoo experts have the Bucs here. That extra half point in there, off the three, has a lot of value with the strong Bucs defense likely making this a low-scoring affair.

17-14 Tampa for the Saints cover.

Tease of the Week
4-Team Sweetheart Teaser via Bodog: Detroit +16, Bengals +16.5, Saints +16.5, Chiefs +14.5
This tease has value in crossing the three, seven, ten and fourteen in all four games. While a Sweetheart teaser with its 5/6 payout isn't normally something I recommend, this is an attractive play this week moving these games across +14 where I consider this will have a very significant chance of hitting.