Listen to this: Performify.com Radio, thanks to Pandora

I'd seen some press about this idea previously, but just recently checked it out on recommendation from a close friend. Pandora is billed as "a music listening and discovery service" - you give it input on the artists and songs you like, and it creates a "station" for you built on your preferences. And, as you'll see below, you can share your "station" with other people.

I've created a channel that demonstrates a good deal of my personal musical tastes. Give it a listen here: "Performify.com Radio" on Pandora. Its already proven a fantastic resource to discover new music.

Friday night $10+1 MTT

Worked late tonight, but made it home just in time for the Friday night tournament sweeps. Since its been a while since I've done one of these, here's play-by-play format for the nightly $10+1 MTT. 2379 Entrants to the nightly $10+1 MTT. $23,790 prize pool, with top 220 pay. Started at 7:30pm our time

7:35pm - K5s in the big blind catches a fourflush on the flop, and the pot is passively built up by myself and three opponents. I catch the flush on the river, and check, looking to check-raise hoping that there's someone with a much smaller flush. Instead its checked around, and I drag a ~T600 pot to jump to ~T1600.

7:38pm - My starting table has decided that every pot is going to be a family pot. With these kind of implied odds, i'm looking for some good suited connectors or pocket pairs I can limp for set value. I'm dealt QJh in late position, and limp after four limpers in front. Eight people see the flop, which comes down Ah5h8s. Its potted and called in front of me, I call as well and three of us see the turn. The turn brings the Qc. I check, one opponent bets small and the other pushes for about 2/3rds my stack. I think for a while and push over the top to shut out the other opponent - I think I've got at least 17 outs if I'm not facing a set or a common card and possibly more if I'm up against a pair. The cards turn over and I'm up against bottom two and indeed holding seventeen outs for the river. I catch an ace to pair the board (giving me a bigger two pair over his "three pair") and am up to T2440.

8:10pm - QQ in the big blind. Its min-raised to 60 by UTG. Another person calls. I pop it to 150 - probably not enough, but I dislike the UTG minraise and have a feeling I'm up against a hand, and I go with it. Both call. Flop comes 68T with two hearts, I check, the UTG min-raiser makes a 1/2 pot bet and the other player calls. I think for a beat and fold my overpair, alarms going off in my head. The hand goes to showdown, with the UTG min-raiser placing milking bets all the way out. Turns out the UTG minraiser had 88 for a set, the other player had JTo for top pair. Perhaps a larger pre-flop raise might have gotten 88 to fold, but it was still a decent laydown on the flop. 1508 players left, I'm at T2290. Average is T1587.

8:18pm - J8o from the BB, seven people to the flop. I catch a jack as top pair on the rainbow flop but check into the big field. A nine drops on the turn (now two clubs) and one player in late position makes a weak bet. The button calls, and I call. Based on the passivity I've seen at this table so far, its extremly likely my hand is best right now. The river brings an offsuit blank, again I check and its another 1/3 pot bet, call, and I call. my jacks drag a T580 pot and I'm up to T2680. 1360 left, T1851 average. Passive play there, letting my opponents build a pot for me, but it worked out OK. Blinds jump to 25/50 in just a second, so people should start to drop more quickly.

8:27pm - AJ in third position. Occasionally this is a fold in early position to a full table, but our table has been passive and the big blind is a short stack with under T400. A player in middle position pushes for T235 more, its folded back to me and I call. I'm dominating KJs, and I flop two pair for good measure. Up to T3140, average is T2014, 1183 players remaining.

8:32pm - minraised to T100 in early position, a caller behind. I'm in the small blind with AJo and call for another 75. Big blind also calls, getting great odds. I flop a gutshot with two overs, but lay it down to a pot-sized bet. After I did it, I didn't like calling here out of position with a marginal hand, probably should have laid it down even though it was only a slight percentage of my stack. Too hard to play AJ out of position, as I'm really only looking to make TPTK by hitting the jack Three hands later we hit first break. I'm down to T2990, average is T2206. 1078 players remaining. Immediately following the break, when the blinds jump to 50/100, is the most critical juncture to start accumulating chips in these low-buyin large field tournaments. The short stacks are going to start bleeding off chips in desparation mode, and the players who can vaccuum up those chips are the ones who will make the money. Now is the time for smart, focused, positional agression.

8:55pm - Blinds jump to 75/150 and I'm hit with the Big Blind first hand of the new level. Didn't get to play a hand in 50/100 - People opening the pot before it got to me every time, and no hands playable to a re-raise - and not even the sort of hands that I like to make a move with at this stage. Running through the blinds drops me down to T2690, below the average (of T3130) for the first time in the tournament. 762 players remain.

9:00pm - A blind steal goes horribly awry, but ends up dragging me a serious pot. I'm in the cutoff with 52s and since I literally haven't played a hand at this table in 30-minutes, I open with a standard raise. The big blind calls. Gulp. He checks, I fire a slightly-more-than half-pot-sized raise with absolutely nothing, and he quick-calls. Double gulp. The turn brings me an OESD, he checks and I think about semi-bluffing here, but I'm afraid I'm up against a hand so I elect to take the free card to try to improve for free. The river pairs the turn. He checks again, and instinctually I push the rest of my chips in. He thinks for a second and folds. Whew. Hand history posted as Comment #1 for posterity. Up to T3775, average is T3566, 668 players remain.

9:08pm - player two to my right just won a huge pot to jump to #2 in chips with +T15k. Better to my right than immediately to my left, as at least I should still have some steal opportunities.

9:10pm - Next hand after making the above entry, I get bumped from our table to much more favorable position, with two players at half-average to my left. Just as I'm giving thanks to the Poker Gods, they reward me in my first hand by sending pocket kings my way. First big pocket pair of the night. I'm in early position, and open for a standard 3x raise - get re-raised all-in by a big stack in middle position, and I insta-call. He turns over AKo, and I dodge an ace to double up big time. Welcome to the table sir. Now up to T7100, 550 players remain with an average of T4349. Time to start some serious chip accumulation.

9:22pm - questionable play by yours truly. I'm in the big blind with AJo. Small stack moves all-in for 955. Late position player calls, for half their stack. Small blind calls. I'm getting better than 3-1 and make the call. AKx flops, I bet enough to put the other small stack in, who calls, and the other player folds. The second small stack holds AK and I'm I dropped to ~T4200.

9:28pm - an early position player limps, i'm in late position with A9o and try to make a move, making a standard 3xBB+1BB raise. The limper pushes over the top, and I reluctantly fold. Down to T3185.

9:29pm - two limpers in front, and I elect to limp pocket dueces. A short-stacked player behind pushes - with whats in the pot, I put him on overcards and with the dead money thats in there I'm certainly getting great odds to coinflip if my read is correct. I call for most of my stack, taking the intentional coinflip, and he turns over A5o - I dodge his six outs and jump to T5966.

9:34pm - dealt two beautiful kings in the big blind. Get a early position limper, and the small blind makes a standard raise. Perfect. I pop it just a little more than 2x his raise - he pushes, and I instacall. AK against my KK once again. Second verse, same as the first, and I'm over T13k. Table gets busted two hands later.

9:40pm - second break. I'm at T13,282. Average is T6895, 345 players remaining. I'm chipleader at my table by a mere 1000 chips. Interlude: In the background, I bust out of the $20+2 $40k Guaranteed in the first 100 people, when two players limp, I complete from the SB with AQ and the BB checks. Flop comes AJ4-rainbow. Early position limper overbets the pot, i just call expecting he's got a weak ace or possibly even a jack. A blank hits the turn and he pushes, and I donk off my stack with AQ against his AK. I didn't expect someone to limp AK and then play it that way on the flop, but he did, and he extracted my chips with ease.

9:56pm - bounced to a new table, where I'm only fourth in chips - two of my opponents here are over T20k, one of those is close to T30k. On the bright side, opportunities to double through I guess. A few blind steals from late position have grown my stack slightly to T13.7k, average is 8496 among the 280 remaining players. Three minutes later, the blinds jump to 300/600 and players start dropping like flies. Depending on the stall rate, we should be ITM shortly.

10:09pm - One of the bigstacks makes a open min-raise from early position, the other big stack calls. I'm in middle position with Aces (first rockets of the night for yours truly) and I go to 3X their minraise. Both bigstacks call. Not what I wanted to see, as this could be a losing proposition. Flop comes TT3 rainbow so I'm either golden or way behind. Its checked to me, I value bet 1/3 the pot (about 1/3 my remaining stack) and both opponents fold. I jump up just beyond T20k, third in chips at the table.

10:15pm - The bubble breaks. I'm just under T21k. Average is 11k among the 220 remaining players who are all in the money.

10:17pm - I just flat-out take away a decent pot with nothing but overcards by representing a set, to jump over T26k. I'm playing for the final table. 193 players remaining, average is T12k. Posted as Comment #6.

10:22pm - Blinds are 400/800, the two bigstacks who are in the blinds. I pop it to T1800 from middle position with JKo, the bigstack small blind calls. King on the flop, a half-pot bet takes it down and I jump to T29k.

10:27pm - Table breaks, I get bounced only two tables up which means I'll get broken again soon, but I'm the chipleader at this table when I sit down. Not much value in image plays, but I can make a couple stupid moves and it shouldn't hurt me for long. 165 players remain, T14k average, I'm sitting at T28k.

10:40pm - in consecutive hands, the player to my immediate right and two to my left both win big pots to jump over T60k each - looking at the lobby they're third and fourth in chips overall. Lucky this is busting next, so I hold on for an orbit and then I'm jumped to table #2. I'm just over T28k, average is T19k with 125 remaining.

10:42pm - Blinds are 500/1000. Shania goes up, chipstack goes down. Steal attempt from the SB with J9o gets shown down when I put the BB all-in for T6k more and he calls with KQo and wins unimproved. I thought he had enough chips to not quite be so desparate, but I know how good any two facecards can look if you've been quite card dead. I drop to just over T20k, 120 remaining and average stack about to catch me at T19k. Its final table or bust from here, as the payout only jumps +$100 at 30 remaining and +$200 in for tenth. I've made more than that playing SNGs in the background: its about making the final table, in position to make a run for top three. We hit the second break a few hands later (3:15 in) and after we're back, blinds jump to 750/1500 with 115 remaining. I'm right at average with T20k.

10:52pm - well, from here on out its a freeroll. I minraise UTG with pocket fives - probably a bad move to beginwith, but lets see what happens. I'm raised to 5500 (2500 to me, with 10750 in the pot - i've got to call) by middle position. Flop comes down QQ2 with two hearts. I check, going for the check-raise as I put my opponent on AK and I think I'm likely best. He bets the minimum, 1500 in to a ~13k pot. I check-raise as planned, putting in about 40% of my chips with a raise to 6600. He comes over the top, and I still feel i'm being pushed by big cards and I call. He turns over aces, and I river a five. Major suckout posted as Comment #7. I jump to T43k. My only suckout so far, but it was a brutal one for my opponent.

11:02pm - AKd goes three-way to the flop and comes KQ5 rainbow. One player moves in, the other folds, I call. He's got K6o and I jump over T50k. 90 players left, average is T27k.

11:11pm - A shortstack open-limps Aces UTG. I push over the top with 88s preflop and drop down to T45k. I manage to steal my way back to T48k in the same orbit though

11:16pm - One limper in front, i call from the small blind with 8Td and we go to a flop. Flop of 972-rainbow is perfect, giving me an open-end straight. I min-bet as a blocking bet, the former big-blind comes over the top, and I jump over T70k.

11:22pm - KK in the cutoff, I min-raise and am called by the big blind, the only player who has me covered. Flop comes QQ5. He checks, I make a small bet, he min-raises to T10k. I think for just a second and push. He calls, with Q2o, and I'm out in 67th place with a payday of $45.20. I'm not sure if I could have gotten away from that hand. A frustrating finish - I could have made a standard raise instead of a min-raise, but I thought I might be able to induce a resteal from the small blind, who'd shown a tendancy to resteal (he'd pushed over my last steal attempt three hands earlier). I think I play that the same way postflop though - I guess I could have re-raised for part of my stack and laid it down if he pushed, but I imagine my kings are good there way too often to make a habit of that in a large field $10+1 MTT...

80% ITM and 96%+ ROI on the $33 SNGs in the background was much more profitable (to the tune of ~$70/hour), but I still feel good about the finish. Still waded my way through 2300+ entrants with only one suckout and solid play along the way. And if those kings are good, I'm in a great position to run to the final table for more serious money.

Performify's Pigskin Picks: Week Twelve (early edition)

Last week was a bad one. That makes three consecutive losing weeks (my only three losing weeks of the year). While a lot of traditionally successful sports bettors are having a rough year with all the big favorites coming through, I've still been grinding out a decent year and expect to return to form this week. Had I stuck with my initial indications of Chicago as my game of the week there would have been a bright spot to the week at least - once again, that's what I get for going against my system and my first instinct.

This week brings a great number of valuable home underdogs. My picks system traditionally loves home underdogs with talent, and this week is no exception. This is also the start of my system starting to place a lot of weight on playoff implications - i.e. strengthening the value of those teams who are in "must win" situations, weakening the value of those teams with strong leads on their division. Note that I'm posting these picks early, on Wednesday due to the Thursday games. Check back Friday/Saturday for possible updates and adjustments on the Sunday games.

Last week: 1-3 with a loss on the game of the week, loss on tease of the week.
26-22 for the year (51.9%). 7-4 on game of the week (63.6%). 1-1 on tease of the week (50%)

This week, recommending a stronger 5-4-2-1 graduated play (top two games are much more significantly favored this week). As usual, all lines listed current from Bodog.com, the best sportsbook around.

Kansas City -3 (Even) vs New England
KC has a terrible schedule to end the year (Denver, @Dallas, @Giants, Chargers, Bengals), and this is a must-win game for the Chiefs if they want to make the playoffs - in fact the Chiefs are pretty much going to need to win out at home in several tough matchups. While KC may not make it, they will get this game pretty easily. The Patriots simply have too many injuries to win this game in Arrowhead. While its sad to mention as a factor, Belichick is reeling from the surprise death of his Dad on Saturday night last week, and Belichick was not with the team this week to spend the time with his family - at this point in the week I'm not even sure if he's going to be back to coach the game this weekend, but even if he is, he missed all of practice to this point. On defense, Kansas City will look to exploit replacement center Russ Hochstein who made his first start of the year last week against the Saints, following Dan Koppen's season-ending shoulder injury the week before. The Saints weren't able to exploit this hole in the Patriots line, but Kansas City presents a much better set of blitzing linemen and linebackers. Patriots will be in catch-up mode all game, going extremely pass heavy - they'll be able to find the end zone against a weak Kansas City secondary, but KC's blitzes will be able to stop drives on third down and by creating turnovers. Offensively, KC should be able to exploit several matchups in the depleted New England secondary, both off the play-action pass and running Tony Gonzales out on routes. New England’s depleted defense has given up multiple passing scores in all but two of their games, and is one behind the Titans for the NFL lead in most passing scores allowed (20), and has given up more passing yards than all but one team (San Fran) Look for "Gonzo" to catch his first TD of the season, Green to add another to Kennison, and Larry Johnson to roll for two more in a 31-21 Kansas City win. Kansas City is also a 38%-62% public perception underdog according to Wagerline. Game of the Week.

Dallas +3 (-130) vs Denver
Two pretty evenly matched teams, with an edge to Parcels at coach and to the team that's not on the road. The Cowboys are also in a must-win situation, tied with five other NFC teams at 7-3 (Bears, Cowboys, Panthers, Giants, Bucs). Denver, however, is second in the AFC (behind the Colts) and has a two-game lead on the AFC West (ahead of KC and SD both at 6-4). The Cowboys have played seven of 10 games decided by six points or fewer, including three losses by a total of 10 - this game should be close, if not an outright win for Dallas. The Cowboys have scored 21 or more points in each of the last four Thanksgiving days- so even though they're up against a stout run defense in Denver, look for the Turkey Day factor (seemingly equivalent to the Monday Night factor) to turn this in to a higher-scoring game than expected. This season Jake Plummer has only one multi-score game and is averaging less than 200 yards per game away from Denver. Plummer also has traditionally underperformed against Dallas (his former NFC East rival), throwing nine picks and just six touchdowns in nine career meetings with Dallas. Combine that with the fact that Dallas has allowed only three passing TDs in their last seven games. Dallas should be able to shut out the passing game and work to contain the running game. If Dallas can build an early lead and go to the ground, they can force Denver away from the run and into a pass-first mode, where their offense is not nearly so comfortable. Injuries to Bell (bruised chest) and Elam (strained calf) mean two potent pieces of the Denver offense are at less-than-full capacity which could factor in to the game as well. Assuming Bell does play, he is averaging nine yards per carry and 79 yards per game at home, but only 4.1 per carry and 53 per game on the road (with no touchdowns on the road this season). So Denver is going to have to depend on Mike Anderson to do all their scoring (and maybe one TD from Plummer at most). Historically, the Broncos also have a 2-6 team record on Thanksgiving. Dallas is a 39% - 61% underdog in public perception according to Wagerline. This line has crept up from +2.5 to be widely available at +3 and might creep higher (or lower juice) closer to game time. Good line to place late for maximum value. 24-20 Dallas for the outright win.

Detroit +3 (Even) vs Atlanta
Falcons have lost two in a row. For Detroit, playing on Thanksgiving is about as close as this team is going to come to the superbowl this year (other than watching the game from a TV in the same city). The Lions have dominated the series against the Falcons with a record of 22-8, including beating Atlanta 17-10 last year (when Atlanta was 4-1). The Lions should get a significant bump on defense with the return of cornerback Dre' Bly and possibly safety Terrence Holt and probably even strong side linebacker Boss Bailey (which will be a huge bump to the Lions' run defense). The Lions also have all of their receivers back and healthy. Coach Steve Mariucci has been keeping injury updates top secret yesterday and today, so its not set in stone even who's going to QB. The possibility of Garcia returning at QB, plus several key defensive players returning, plus the edge that this information gives Detroit (in not allowing Atlanta to prepare for a specific QB or specific WRs or specific defensive matchups) gives Detroit an extra bump. Detroit is a 27% - 73% underdog in public perception according to Wagerline. 24-23 for the Detroit cover (that's three FGs for Detroit PK Jason Hanson - if Detroit can convert one of those possessions into a TD, they'll win the game outright 27-24). This is another game to place late - this line very well may move to +3.5 before game time the way it seems to be headed.

Arizona +3.5 vs Jacksonville
The Jags lost at St. Louis on Oct. 30, and the Cardinals just beat the Rams 38-28 on Sunday. A+B=C, ergo the Jags will face a tough test in Arizona, on the road against a team that's running hot and has proven that they can beat a common opponent (which managed to beat the Jags without their starting QB). Admittedly, the Rams got 200 yards out of their ground game in that matchup in which they beat the Jags, but both of their offensive touchdowns came through the air, and that was with Martin at QB for the Rams. The Cardinals are rolling, and have significant offense threats back on the team in their full contingent of starting WRs, not to mention the running game is developing slightly with the emerging threat of J.J. Arrington (several big runs against the Rams). On paper this looks like a terrible matchup for the Cards - Arizona averages 21ppg and is facing a defense allowing only 17ppg. Arizona is pass-heavy and the Jags bring in the #1 pass defense. However, Arizona presents a stout rush defense while at home and has only allowed one of four opposing QBs they've faced at home to score more than one touchdown. Arizona has also shut down the RBs they've faced at home, with the exception of Shaun Alexander - and with Jacksonville already struggling on the ground, Arizona should be able to shut down their run game. I know it looks ugly, but there is value in Arizona as a home underdog here. The Jags score once through the air, once on the ground, and once returning a Warner interception to the house. However Arizona responds with a long touchdown (20+ yards) through the air to Boldin (Larry Fitz is facing one of the league's best cover men in Rashean Mathis), and J.J. Arrington continues his trend of scoring in the past two consecutive games. However, the difference is the league's leading kicker Neil Rackers nails two field goals to cover - and might even get a shot at a game winner as regulation expires, he's hit six this year from 50+, which is the second most in NFL history (Morten Andersen, 8, 1995). Arizona is a 29%-71% public perception underdog according to Wagerline. 21-20 Jacksonville for the AZ cover.

Teaser of the Week: Dallas +9 / Detroit +9
Two games which cross through +3 and +7 for home underdogs, both of whom have a solid chance to win their games outright. This teaser is worth up to five units (equivalent to a game of the week). If you're looking for a three-team teaser its also valuable to add Arizona +9.5 to the mix, but since you're already across the three there its not nearly as valuable. If that spread crosses to 4 or even 4.5 it gains more value in crossing to a push/win at ten.

Performify's Pigskin Picks: Week Eleven

Week eleven brings us some very one-sided matchups. Eight of the matchups this week are favored by a touchdown or more, and five of those are ten or more point favorites. Many of these big-spread matchups are serious public opinion favorites as well. So this week presents a large challenge to find positive expected value, but for systems which favor underdogs its a pretty decent week. With a lot of the large spreads, I feel this is a good week for six-point teasers as well, as you can cross some pretty serious divides by moving some of those +7 lines across +10 to +13, and moving +10 lines across +14 to +16. There's also a lot of value in shrinking the distance between some of these large spreads

Last week: 2-3 with a win on Game of the Week. +3.65 units for the week.
Results: 26-22 for the year (54.16%). 7-3 on game of the week (70%)

This week, recommending a standard 5-3-2-1 graduated play. As usual, all lines listed current from Bodog.com, the best sportsbook around.

Seattle -13 at San Francisco
On November 7th last year, Seattle rolled in to San Fran as a seven point favorite and came home a 14 point winner. This was after beating San Fran 34-0 at home earlier in the year. This year's Seattle team is better than last, this year's 49ers are worse - Seattle is the top-ranked offense, San Fran is the lowest-ranked defense. . As long as this line is under 14, this has value. San Fran has averaged a meager 42.4 passing yards and zero TDs in the five games since QB Tim Rattay was benched / traded. San Fran hasn't scored in the last three games. San Fran QB Ken Dorsey will get his second start of the season ( fourth SF change at quarterback in the last six games), and will have rookie OL Adam Spencer replacing LT Anthony Clement protecting Dorsey's blind side. Seattle ranks second in the league with 30 sacks, so look for Dorsey to spend most of the day on his back. Seattle will roll eight in the box to stuff the run, and to pressure the QB. This one is going to be ugly. Seattle is 5-2 ATS in their past seven vs San Fran, and 6-2 ATS in their last eight overall. San Fran is 3-7 ATS in their last ten home games. 34-14 Seattle, game of the week as long as its under 14.

Detroit +7.5 at Dallas
Three of five Detroit losses have been by six points or less. The Cowboys have had seven of nine games this year decided by a touchdown or less (only the early-season blowout of Philly and the win two week ago against Arizona were decided by more than seven). Dallas is going to win this game, but Detroit has a very good shot to cover the 7.5. That extra half point is critical to the +EV of this game, as I predict this game is going to land on Dallas +7 quite often. Dallas is in potential let-down mode after the Philly win - I don't think they suffer an outright loss, but I don't expect they come out firing, they'll do just enough to win this game but not by more than a touch. Julius Jones is playing, but is not 100% - look for Dallas to try to build an early lead and then run out the clock. The Lions are decent at stopping the run anyways, with big beefy Shaun Rogers and Dan Wilkinson as DTs. Look for Dallas to try to run outside, something they were not able to do with any success last week in Philly. Dallas is also a 60% public favorite according to Wagerline. Note that this line is creeping up - its available at +8 already in some places and may climb higher closer to gametime. 24-21 Dallas for the Detroit cover.

Chicago +3 vs Carolina
Look past the hype and the past few games, where Carolina has outscored their last three opponents by a combined 102-30. This is the Carolina team that only beat the Packers 32-29 at home and only beat the Lions 21-20 at Detroit. Look familar? Yep - both NFC North teams... and now the Panthers head to a third NFC North matchup, where all of Chicago is up for this game. LB Brian Urlacher called this the biggest game he's played in since 2001. Chicago is out to prove that they are playoff contenders and can beat (or at least play with) someone with a winning record. This game is split 77%-23% in favor of Carolina in public opinion according to Wagerline - not to mention 6/6 USA today experts have Carolina - so this is a huge public opinion play. Carolina is a pass-heavy team, their RB Steven Davis is only averaging 3yd/carry. Chicago's stout defense (#1 overall, #8 vs the run, #3 vs the pass) is going to be able to play pass-heavy defense, counting on the intersection of their run D + the poor Carolina run game to allow them to continually drop four and five back in coverage. You're also going to see heavy winds in Chicago again this weekend (but not nearly as heavy as last weekend), which is going to play havoc with both team's passing games - there's already a high-wind advisory for Saturday, which is likely to carry over to Sunday. As Chicago proved last weekend, they're much better suited to playing in those winds, and ultimately they're going to win this game. Its also worth mentioning that Carolina is 1-5 over the last 11 years when temperature at kickoff is 32-degrees or below. Forcast for Sunday? 32-degrees on the nose, likely colder with wind chill. Both of these teams are pretty identical, both strong physical teams with very strong defenses and a one-dimensional offense. however, in the battle between a run-only offense and a pass-only offense, especially in unfavorable weather conditions, the run-heavy offense wins out. Thomas Jones practiced Wednesday and Thursday this week, and will be "healthier than I've been in a month" according to Jones. Chicago also returns its offensive line to full strength as right tackle Fred Miller (highly publicized broken jaw from a fight with center Kreutz) was upgraded to probable after practicing Thursday, and left guard Ruben Brown (chest) was removed from the injury report entirely this week. If Miller can't play, John St. Clair would start his second straight game at right tackle - and he put up a great showing last week against 49ers standout Bryant Young. Carolina gets one to Steve Smith and a 1-yard TD on the ground for Davis, but Muhsin scores once through the air, Jones on the ground, and Gould drops in a field-goal for the 17-14 win. Believe it or not, this is almost the game of the week. .

Atlanta -6 vs Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games. In the same stretch, Atlanta is 5-2-1 ATS in their last seven at home. The Falcons lost to Green Bay at home and are going to want to come back and make a statement. This is an important game for two teams both who are fighting for a playoff spot. 21-13 Atlanta.

Tease of the Week: Seattle -6.5, San Diego -4
This is a 5/6 teaser, normally something I stay away from because of the -120 line. However, there is enough EV in crossing the seven on the Seattle line to make this play worth it, unless you can find the line at -12.5 still instead of -13. This tease should come in enough to make it worth a three unit play at -120. The Bills porous rush defense + a rested L.T. means a big day for San Diego on the ground, but there's too much of a probability of this game being decided by a touchdown (with the clock being ground down by the ground game) to make this a valuable play at -10. Likewise Seattle brings a potent rushing attack to San Fransico, where the offense is struggling greatly (full analysis above). While I feel this is a very strong play at a two-touchdown spread, its a majorly strong play inside a touchdown. Teasing these two down is the "free money" teaser of the week

Next homegame announced - 11/19

This Saturday, November 19th is Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) 56: Full Force. We'll be PPV'ing and putting it up on the big screen. We'll roll a home game before-hand. We'll be playing a regular ring game format (i.e. cash-in, cash-out at will) and we will be stopping the games for the UFC at 9:00 CST. As usual, open invite. So if you're going to be in/near Kansas City, drop me an email or post if you want in - or check the KCpoker.org site for more details.

$50+5 MTT final table

Spent most of the afternoon playing SNGs, but I managed to catch the start of a $50+5 no limit multi-table tournament. There were 430 entrants for a $21,500 prize pool, first paying $5375.

I took two coinflips on the way to the money - about halfway through I semibluffed with an OESD on the flop, got called by TP2K, but caught my straight and doubled up. With about 150 players remaining I raised from the button with A9h over one limper and the two blinds. Both the BB and the UTG limper called. Flop came Kxx with two hearts. The big blind pushed, the limper called - I was now facing an all-in call for half my stack, getting about 2.5-1 pot odds, with only the nut flush draw. With the all-in and call behind I really expected one of the two was on the flush draw themselves, which meant that I had less than a full twelve outs for the flush + overcard, but I thought there was a very good chance that my ace was live so I was looking at nine outs (six remaining hearts, three remaining aces). I debated for a second, but decided to call - sure enough one opponent was on a jack-high flush draw, the other had middle pair. My ace was live, and in fact my nine was live to beat the middle pair. Better than expected... I caught the flush, and jumped to a little more than 3x average chipstack. From there I played big stack bully, playing tight agressive positional poker, floating my chipstack between 15k and 10k chips.

We went hand for hand at 2:17 with 60 remaining (top 50 pay). I have T11k, average chipstack is ~7200. During hand-for-hand, picked up KK and AA in back to back hands (Comment #1). Managed to jump up to T17k and chiplead at my table with 53 people remaining, average chipstack 8k.

Hand for hand tookabsolutely forever, but it was a nice bubble to exploit. Won a decent pot with JJ to jump to T20k right before the bubble burst (Comment #2). Now we're In The Money with 50 people and average chipstack of T9k

Just hit quad aces to drag a very nice pot (Comment #3). Jumped to T29k, average chipstack is T11k. Down to 38 players and I'm currently fourth in chips.

Just jumped in to the chiplead, dragging a big pot with pocket kings (Comment #4). I've got T38k, 31 players left, average chipstack is T14k. Lost a coinflip a few hands later against a shorty with pocket helmuths against their AJo when they caught a jack on the river, but still maintained the chiplead.

Hit a desparately needed break at 3:15 in to the tournament. I've dropped to fourth in chips with T32k, haven't played a hand in a while. 22 players left, average chipstack is T19k. Chipleader has T66k. Second, third, fourth and fifth in chips are all at my table, so there are few opportunities to bully small stacks.

3:24 in, almost doubled up against another big stack at the table. Caught TT in MP, 3x BB and was called by bigstack on the button. Flop was AT3 rainbow, so I was very confident that I had the absolute best hand here - he would have re-raised preflop with AA and he probably has AJ+ so I can really extract some chips now. Fastplay is the new slowplay, so I led out with a 1/3 pot bet. He called. Turn was a blank, I bet about half the pot and he pushed over the top. I instacall and add his chips to mine. HH posted as Comment #5. I'm second in chips with T50k, we're down inside 20 players remaining. T25k is the average chipstack.

3:45 in, on the bubble of the final table with 11 left. Zero post-flop poker being played at our table - first pre-flop raise takes the blinds. I'm remaining tight agressive, not stealing too often but just with solid hands as I'm aware that people are ready to come back over the top. Still, i'm able to accumulate with my big stack. I'm still second in chips, now up to T60k.

3:48 in, we hit the final table. First hand I'm dealt two beautiful black aces, I 3x the BB, get a push behind of a small stack and then a bigstack calls the push. I re-raise enough to put the bigstack all in, as I really don't want to see this go multiway and there's a very nice amount of dead money in there now. Aces are good and I'm the chipleader at the final table. (Hand history as Comment #6) Nine left, I've got T90k.

4:15 in, another break. Seven players remain. Still chiplead, continuing to slowly accumulate. Knocked one guy out with AK versus his A8o, otherwise just taking down the blinds or playing aggressively when we do see a flop. I'm at T133k, average among the seven remaining is T61k. Second place is T113k, then one person at T70k, one at T50k, and three shorties under T20k. Gameplan from here is to concentrate on accumulating the chips from the shorties, continue to "play perfect poker".

5:00 in almost exactly, and lost the heads up battle with deuce248. Got sucked out on the river twice heads up, the first time when I had a split pair of eights and we got all the money in the middle against his pocket sixes. Would have been the game, right there, as I had him covered. Beautiful, can't do much better than getting in as more than a 90%-10% favorite. But he caught a six on the river and it was back to the battle. Went on to beat another hand of mine catching a six-outer on the river a few hands later, and it was downhill quickly from there. Suckouts posted in the comments for posterity. Eh, that's poker. Still a little bitter, as I absolutely dominated the final table and should have had the $5k payday if not for the bad beat catching his two outer.

Still a very nice $3225 payday, very glad I decided to pull the trigger as I almost didn't enter to focus on the STTs.

Performify's Pigskin Picks - Week Ten

I told you I didn't like last week, and it showed with my first losing percentage week of the season. This week I'm much happier with our game selection. I'm betting against two home underdogs this week, betting on three road underdogs, and picking a couple games that the public favors as well. A little unusual for those who regularly follow my picks, as I'm usually about finding value in plays opposite the public, but I think this is another week (like last week) where the public's terrible trend of opening the season regresses towards the mean a little bit.

Last week: 2-3 with my first losing % week of the season. Loss on game of the week.
24-19 for the year (55.8%), 6-3 on Game of the Week (67%)

This week, recommending a standard 5-3-2-1-1 graduated play. As usual, all lines listed current from Bodog.com, the best sportsbook around.

Dallas +3 at Philly
The Eagles lost 33-10 in Dallas last month. The Eagles are much better at home than on the road, but homefield isn't going to be enough to erase the differential between these two teams. Eagles are missing center Hank Fraley which is a huge loss for their team. Fraley made all the line calls, which means someone else is going to have to step up, and with Dallas showing a lot of varying blitzes out of their 3-4, line pickups against the blitz are critical. The Cowboys are rested coming off a bye week and will have analyzed Philly's loss to Washington in depth. Look for Dallas to blitz unmercifully up the middle on defense to create a lot of pressure on McNabb, with Dallas LB DeMarcus Ware having a big game. Look for Dallas to go run-heavy on offense, combining Julius Jones and Marion Barber to keep fresh legs attacking the Eagles who are vulnerable up the middle. Westbrook will be stuffed on the ground, probably having less than 50 yards rushing. No one wants to admit it, but the Eagles are going to miss TO after losing this week. Especially with LJ Smith questionable (concussion), Philly is really hurting for offensive playmakers. Look for Dallas to build an early lead and runs out the clock in the second half. Dallas is 3-0-1 ATS in their last four games, Phily is 2-7 ATS in their last nine overall. Get on this game now, its going to move off three soon. If the line moves much off three by the time you want to get on it, I suggest a moneyline play because Dallas going to win this one outright. 21-17 Dallas. Game of the Week.

Kansas City +2 at Buffalo
In their first two intra-division meetings with the AFC East, KC rolled up 198 yards and three touchdowns on the ground against the Jets in week one and 185 and three more on the ground against the Dolphins in week seven. Now coming off a huge week at home against Oakland, Larry Johnson is eagerly anticipating facing the 31st-ranked Buffalo rush defense which is allowing 151 yards a game on the ground. Larry Johnson is actually more of a big play threat than Priest Holmes and the Chiefs will run all over Buffalo. The casual bettor might not see this, and only sees that KC has lost their #1 RB, but Larry has been ready to step in to the spotlight all season, and should have a huge game, espcially with his speed on the turf surface. Interestingly enough, this is a matchup between the top two running backs of the 2003 draft: McGahee was the first running back drafted at #23 overall, Larry Johnson was the second RB picked, #27 overall. The Chiefs are without pro bowl tackle Willie Roaf, but that actually hurts the passing game worse than the running game (it forces KC's best receiving option TE Tony Gonzales to stay in and block more). Buffalo has injury concerns on the O-line, look for the agressive KC d-line and speedy linebackers to stuff the run and force the Bills to go to the air. However Holcomb is not a mobile QB, so in addition to stuffing the run the Chiefs speedy linebackers should have a big day sacking Holcomb, whose sacks-per-play number is one of the league's worst. KC is 11-3 when having a 100-yard rusher dating back to 2003, the Bills are 9-2 when McGahee pulls off the feat. However, the Chiefs haven't allowed a 100-yard individual rusher in 15 games, the second-longest streak in the NFL behind Pittsburgh (20 games), while Buffalo ranks 31st in stopping the run as I've already mentioned. First RB to 100 yards wins this game, and its going to be LJ. KC Coach Dick Vermeil is 4-0 vs. Buffalo, and the Bills are 4-10 vs. AFC West since 1997. KC's #1 CB Patrick Surtain has moved from questionable to probable and is expected to play, and if not CB Dewayne Washington did a solid job starting last week against Oakland (awarded two game balls, for defense and special teams player of the week) and can step up again this week. For what its worth, Wagerline has this game 69% - 31% in favor of KC, so I'm picking a pretty strong public favorite here, which is the only thing keeping this game from being Game of the Week because absolutely everything I'm seeing favors KC here. 24-16 Kansas City for the outright win.

St. Louis +7 at Seattle
Rams are coming off a bye week and will return Bulger, Holt and possibly Bruce on offense, and "Big" Leonard Little on defense. If Bruce can't play, Curtis has blown up against Seattle in the past two years, so I don't see that as much of a disadvantage. This game is very similiar to the situation last year, where Seattle had a chance to distance themselves from the Rams in the NFC West, but the Rams staged a 17-point comeback in Seattle to pull off a big victory. Bulger has won four of his last five starts vs. Seattle. Seattle starts two rookies at linebacker, and Steven Jackson should have a field day. The Rams really need this win, they'll stay within a game of Seattle for the NFC West, versus falling three games down if they lose. 6/6 USA Today experts, 4/4 Yahoo experts and 83% of the Yahoo public all pick Seattle, and the general public is 2-1 for Seattle (67%-32%) according to Wagerline. I look for the Rams to win this game outright, so a small moneyline play here also has good value. If the Rams can't manage the win, I very strongly expect this game to be a cover or at worst a push. The Rams have massive backdoor cover potential with their potent passing attack. 27-24 St. Louis for the outright win.

Washington -1 at Tampa
Joe Gibbs has his team so well-coached that they're playing almost a perfect game each week (following the gameplan, minimizing turnovers, etc). Tampa's gameplan is to run the ball on offense and get after the passer on defense. Tampa Bay has averaged 57 rushing yards in its three losses, and the Redskins will do everything they can to stuff rookie RB Carnell Williams and force the game onto the arm of struggling QB Chris Simms including eight and sometimes nine in the box. Gregg Williams' defense has forced five of its six turnovers and 10 of its 14 sacks against young quarterbacks (Kyle Orton, Alex Smith and Eli Manning), so look for Williams to relentlessly blitz Chris Simms and force sacks and turnovers. Look for a couple corner blitzes out of Washington CB Shawn Springs - if rookie Simms can't make the right read and get rid of the ball quickly to that side, Springs will light him up and can force turnovers on the blitz. The Bucs are 3-20 when they lose more turnovers than they force, and that trend is going to come in to play here. The Redskins' max protect offense will help to slow down the Tampa pass rush and give Santa Moss time to get open. Despite the Redskins' hot offense, Washington will need to win this game on defense and on special teams. This will be the Bucs' third straight loss, killing any chances of going to the playoffs. Washington is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings between these two teams, while Tampa is 1-5 ATS in their last six overall. 17-10 Washington.

Denver -3 at Oakland
The Broncos are coming off the bye week and looking to take a big lead in the AFC West race. The Broncos are 12-4 in games following a bye week, only the Vikings and the Eagles are any better coming off the by (13-3 each). Denver is also 15-5 against Oakland since Mike Shanahan became coach in 1995. Shanahan still has a feud with Raiders owner Al Davis, who fired Shanahan in 1989. Oakland is going to pound the ball with Lamont Jordan and work off play action passes, but it won't be enough. Both teams have secondary problems Denver will likewise pound the ground with RBs Mike Anderson and Tatum Bell, while QB Jake Plummer will then take shots at the Raiders' beat-up secondary. Jake Plummer is coming off by far his best game of the season, a 309-yard, four-touchdown outing against the Eagles. Cornerback Champ Bailey should be ready to go for this week's matchup against banged-up Raiders receiver Randy Moss. Bailey is listed as probable on the injury report and practiced at full speed on Wednesday and Thursday, the first time in weeks he hasn't been limited in practice. Ultimately, Denver manages to build an early lead and then the one-two punch of Anderson and Bell will wear out the Raiders defensive line. For what its worth, Wagerline has this game 69% - 31% in favor of Denver, so I'm picking a pretty strong public favorite here. 28-24 Denver.

Four tabling, continued...

Per previous poker-related post, my exploits learning to four table continue this week, to great success. Tonight I hit 78% ITM with 92% ROI in two four-tabling sessions (~$65/hour tonight), bringing the month's totals to 68% ITM and 67% ROI (~$150 profit @ ~$40/hour). This is obviously some combination of the following:

1. the $10+1's being that much easier than the $22s/$33s/etc
2. my play having improved dramatically moving through the $22's and $33's
3. four tabling not being nearly as hard as anticipated
4. being forced to concentrate on poker, instead of surfing in the background
5. a nice heater aka positive variance

Which sort of combination, I'm not exactly sure, but if I were forced to guess I'd say something like 20% #1, 40% #2, 10% #4 and 30% #5. #3 is certainly proving to be true, but doesn't account for the rise in ITM/ROI over the hundreds of SNGs I logged at this level. I'm going to try to log 50 of these four-table sessions before i move back up, to see if I can sustain this heater down here or if negative variance swings its ugly head back around.

Hopefully time for a lot more poker this week, and hopefully even a couple nights of MTTs.

Performify's Pigskin Picks: Week Nine

This week is a mass of public opinion. Earlier in the week, the site I use to track public opinion plays was the most one-sided (across all the games) that I'd ever seen in four years of using the site. The massive public favorites have done pretty poorly this year, so either this weekend is going to be a massive regression to the mean (meaning the public is going to win a lot more games than they usually do, balancing out their losing trend) or its going to be a landslide victory for the bookmakers.

Yeah, I'm going with the latter.

Last week: 3-2 with a win on game of the week. 4-2 if I hadn't waved off Oakland.
Season results: 22-16 for the year (58%), 6-2 on the game of the week (75%).

I'm suggesting 4-2-2-1 unit plays this week (or 2-1-1-.5 if you prefer). I'm not exceedingly happy about the games, there are a lot of injury variables involved and there might be a lot of last-minute adjustments based upon late news or line shifts. As usual, all lines listed current from Bodog.com, the best sportsbook around.

Arizona +4 (-105) vs Seattle
A matchup of a very solid and balanced team in Seattle, against a very one sided pass-first team in Arizona. Arizona does have a pretty solid defense, ranked 15th against the run and 18th against the pass. Look for Arizona to stick eight and possibly even nine men in the box against Seattle - big day for Seattle's wide receivers, but a slower than usual day for S.A. Warner is back at QB for Arizona, and while he might be a little rusty he's a major improvement over McCown and should be able to throw the ball against Seattle pretty well. Seattle has allowed 11 touchdowns this year, and 9/11 have come through the air. Arizona also has a tremendous special teams threat in Neil Rackers, who should be good for three field goals on route to a 23-21 outright victory for Arizona. And worst case this is a three point win for Seattle. This is also a major public perception play, with a 75% - 25% split in public opinion against Arizona according to Wagerline, and 6/6 Yahoo experts (and all the ESPN experts who've selected their games, which is only 3/8 out of this posting). Game of the week.

Carolina -1.5 at Tampa Bay
I know the general public is all over this game as well (62%-38%), but you have to remember that the general public is only wrong about 55% - 60% of the time at worst. When you factor in the 10% vig charged by most books, you're looking at a landslide advantage for the house, where they're winning a majority of the games outright and making an extra 10% from those who do win against them. In short, you can't go wrong picking against the public in general, but when you're picking a small subset of games you can't go against public opinion all the time. I let public opinion talk me out of solid analysis on Oakland winning last week, and I'm not going to do it again this week. Gruden is an excellent coach, but his Bucs are facing a strong Carolina rush defense (#2 in the NFL) who will be able to reliably stack eight and nine in the box against the Tampa running game and get serious pressure on rookie QB Chris Simms. Carolina QB Jake Delhomme is 4-0 against Tampa Bay. Look for Carolina to use more of DeShaun Foster against the strong Tampa Bay run defense, as Foster brings big-play capability to the table and Davis is still banged up. Look for Carolina to shut down the Tampa Bay offense in whole, stuffing the run and really pressuring and confusing Simms. 21-17 Carolina.

Detroit (pk) at Minnesota
Minnesota has owned Detroit in the past, winning nine of the past ten meetings including all of the last six. However, Detroit is actually 7-2 ATS against the Vikings in the last nine meetings and is still 5-2 ATS this year. Detroit knows that the Vikes have had their number in recent years, and Detroit needs this game more than the Vikings (Detroit is second in the division, a game behind Chicago). Look for Kevin Jones to hit his first 100-yard rushing game of the year, against a Vikings defense that's ranked #29 against the run. Pro bowl DT Shaun Rogers will be the key to this game - he's questionable at the moment but has stepped up his practice participation on Thursday and Friday and hopefully will be able to go for Detroit - if he's in the lineup, even not at 100%, he will dramatically affect the Minnesota run game and help get pressure on Johnson, both of which will really disrupt the struggling Vikings offense. Rogers plays left tackle and is usually double-teamed by the center and right guard, which will mean dangerous RT Dan Wilkinson will be one-on-one with struggling Vikings LG Chris Liwienski which means a ton of pressure up the middle for the Lions. If Rogers is out, feel free to lay off this game or play for a single unit, but with Rogers in I feel this is an easy two-unit play under my betting system. Also, feel free to lay off this game under the "Tice Rule" (don't bet on or against Mike Tice) if you're uncomfortable there. 24-17 Detroit.

Miami +2 (-105) vs Atlanta
Atlanta is allowing 4.7 yards per carry on the ground, and Miami is showing a much improved run game with Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams who combined for 188 yards rushing last week. Marino will be honored at a halftime presentation, which should help to pump up the players and the crowd. Dolphins getting Seau back at LB should be a big help in trying to contain the Falcon's rushing attack. Almost purely a public perception play: I expected this line to be much higher (for Atlanta) which is usually a sign that there is something I'm missing. The public is all over this game, with 77% of the public favoring Atlanta versus 23% for Miami. 21-20 Atlanta for the Miami cover.

Edit: Added three units on KC -3.5 +110. Larry Johnson running for Priest Holmes is not nearly the factor that the line reflects, and might even be an advantage for KC. At -3.5 +110 the line has good value. Also adding a second unit on Detroit at +2 -105, so the current distribution of units looks like:
Arizona - 5 units
Chiefs - 3 units
Carolina - 2 units
Detroit - 2 units
Miami - 1 unit

Practicing 3/4 tabling

Per my last poker post on hourly rate, I'd decided it was time to think about developing my SNG repertoire to include the ability to play three or four tables at the same time (I currently two-table the SNGs that I play, sometimes with a third table running a multi-table tournament at the same time). Rather than start out three or four tabling my current level of $30+3, I decided I'd hop back down to the $10+1 and start there. In three sessions tonight, of three tables, three tables, and finally four tables, I managed 60% ITM with 45.45% ROI and 0-4-2-4 finish distribution (OOTM was a fourth, a sixth, and a tenth). A nice heater, but amazingly my ROI should have been even higher, as twice heads-up I got all the money in the middle preflop in dominating situations and both times my opponents caught their three outers. One other time ITM tonight I got the money in on the flop with two pair (AJx on the flop) and my opponent called with KK and spiked a king. That should have been an easy first place finish there as well.

Man, the $10+1s are really really fishy looking back once you've moved up a couple levels - in one game I trippled up on the first hand (posted as Comment #1) with KK all-in preflop versus two other players: one holding 44 and the other holding AQo. Then two hands later I took 2/3rds someone's stack with AKo flopping TPTK. Then two hands after that, I stacked a third player when I limped UTG with QJs, caught two pair on a rainbow flop, and he called me down to the river (through a series of milking bets by yours truly) and finally called off his stack with an unimproved AKo, aparently thinking I was on a stone bluff (or just not thinking at all, I guess). Hand history for that one also posted, as Comment #2.

Made $22/hour for the two+ hours I played tonight - sadly that's more money per hour than I've been making at anything but the MTTs. Might be smarter to fourtable the $10+1 for a while to get more experience here, and then work on adding a third and eventually a fourth table at the $33 level.