Performify's Pigskin Picks: Week Eight

Last two weeks have delivered very solid results, running 8-3 with 2-0 on Game of the Week. And two of those losses could have easily been wins, with Bulger going down costing me StL/Indy, and Philly winning but failing to cover the extra half-point last week. This week I expect many games to be very close to the Vegas lines. I wouldn't be surprised to see a push or two this week. I will be running 3-2-2-1-1 on units in order, with possible additions later in the week of the lines make favorable moves.

Last week: 3-1, win on game of the week.
19-14 for the season (57.6%), 5-2 on the game of the week (71%).

Dallas -9 vs Arizona
Arizona is 1-4 ATS in their last five on the road, the Cowboys are 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings in Dallas. Arizona has been outscored 162-24 in its last five visits to Texas Stadium. That is an average final of 32-5 over those last five games. Dallas is leading the NFL in time of possession (34:14), and Arizona is the second-worst rushing team in football which is going to make the time of possession discrepancy even worse. If it wasn't for halftime, its possible that Dallas would run out the entire game with a single scoring drive to win 7-0, but thanks to halftime and the resulting mandatory change of possession we should see two scoring drives for the Cowboys and a single Arizona possession (whichever half they win possession via the cointoss) in which the Cardinals proceed to go three & out, for a final score of 14-0. Game of the Week.

San Fran + 11 vs Tampa Bay
The 49ers are 9-1 at home against Tampa Bay. Tampa is 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games. Bucs QB Chris Simms is making his first start of the season in place of injured Brian Griese. 49ers will load against the run and force Simms to throw. On offense, the 49ers should have a much more consistent QB performance from Ken Dorsey over rookie Alex Smith. Wagerline has this game 66%-33% in favor of Tampa Bay which also makes this a strong pick against public opinion. I simply can't believe that Tampa with Simms is going to cover by double digits in San Fran. 24-14 for the 49ers cover. This is also not a bad place for a small moneyline play on San Fran to win outright. 24-14 Tampa for the SF cover. Game of the Weak, but play it anyways.

Kansas City +6 (-105) at San Diego
Chiefs have had two extra days of rest and preparation, thanks to playing on Friday last week. The KC coaches have also had two extra days to prepare, and they no doubt used some of that extra time to study the film from last week's Philly / SD matchup. Look for the Chiefs to emulate the way that Philly shut down LT last week. The Chiefs defense is certainly no Philly D, but the Chiefs will look do stack eight in the box against LT and again force Brees to pass over the top. 24-23 San Diego for the Chiefs cover (that's two TDs and three FGs for KC, FYI).

Detroit -3 (-105) vs Chicago
Detroit this year is 3-0 ATS at home, 3-0 ATS on turf, and 5-1 ATS overall. This is an important game for both teams, as the winner takes sole possession of first place in the stellar NFC North division. Home crowd noise against a struggling rookie QB will be the edge in this game - Detroit can very easily stack the line with eight in the box against TJones and the Bears run game, and force Orton to throw the ball in to the dangerous Detroit secondary (leading the NFC in INTs at 13) I'm going to keep backing the Lions until they lose another game ATS - Ultimately I believe the general public sees Detroit as more weak than they actually are, which leads to their lines being intentionally misweighted to cover the public perception. 21-17 Detroit.

Baltimore +10.5 at Pittsburgh
Purely a public opinion play. Pittsburgh is 79% - 21% favored via Wagerline, which is the largest discrepancy of the season. Baltimore's defense has been underperforming this year, but perhaps they can step up to the task on the national scene. However the Steelers are 10-0 at home on Monday nights under Cowher, and it looks like the Ravens are minus Ray Lewis. However they've still got the #1 pass defense so they should be able to jam agaist the run and hopefully create points off turnovers. 24-17 Pittsburgh for the Baltimore cover.

Oakland (-2) at Tennessee
Note: not currently strongly recommended as a formal pick, as I've started to doubt my analysis.
Needs more work up, but posted here for the meantime - again, not recommended for play at this time
The Raiders are 3-1 ATS in the last four with the Titans and 3-1 ATS in their last four overall. The Titans are 2-5 ATS in their last seven at home. Oakland continues to pound LaMont Jordan on the ground with 30+ touches. McNair is back but is still banged up, and the aggressive Oakland defense might just knock him out of the game entirely. The Raiders are generally terrible on the road (2-18 in their last 20) but they pull out the win here. 24-21 RRRRRaiders.

$$$/hour, thanks to PT

Thanks to the latest Poker Tracker patch, you can now see your earnings per hour for tournaments. I'm a lifetime 33%-40% ITM on STTs at the various levels I've moved up through, and am ~38% ITM and >10% ROI at the $33's (my current level of play). However, thanks to this new feature I can see that I'm earning less than $10/hour two-tabling the $33s. I either need to start adding tables or start moving up to $55 I think. Earning $10/hour improving my game isn't a bad thing, but its not building the bankroll much either.

Good news is, with my tournament skills (lifetime 28.57% ITM and 329% ROI @ the MTTs) i'm making close to $30/hour in my MTT play. I've mentioned it before, but man I really need to focus on playing more non-SNG tournaments. Despite the larger time commitment its good to see that I'm earning dramatically more per hour of play at the MTTs.

PS: if you're barely using Poker Tracker to its full potential, you need to check out the excellent Poker Tracker Guide. Not affiliated, just a blatent plug for a fine product.

Next homegame announced

Last week we announced another homegame for this Saturday (the 29th) at 7:00pm. If you're in or around the Kansas City area and want an invite, drop me a comment/email or check out KCPoker.org.

Blogger Tourney @ Pokerstars - update

I have registered to play in the Online Poker Blogger Championship!

This event is powered by PokerStars.

October 23rd, 2005 – 4:00pm EST (3:00 CST)

Registration code: 3249060

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Hit several big hands early (two limped pocket pairs connected for sets, pocket queens held up) and I was chiplead at my table early. I dropped a little and got shuffled a couple times, and mostly just got blinded down, playing maybe 3 hands in the second hour (winning two small pots with AK and JJ, losing a blind steal from the SB when the BB pushed over me). At the second break, I'm at $3415. Average is 11201, so I'm down to almost 1/4th average. We've got 263 players left, out of the 1473 that started. Top 99 "pay" in terms of prizes. Oh, and i should mention that the Venetian is seated to my right with close to T15k.

Almost immediately after updating the above post, I pushed from the button with any two - happens to be 84o - over one limper and the two blinds + antes. Blinds quickly folded to the limper who had about 10k behind and was facing a ~2k raise from me - limper went in to the tank for a while and then made the call. I was very happy to see he'd made a very very marginal call with A5s and I was only a 66%-34% underdog. The flop came A8x with one spade - I then caught a third eight on the turn, but it was another spade. Immediate elation. However the river of justice quickly brought one more spade and I was out in 244th place. Just flat out card dead most of the day - I'm not disappointed in my play at all, but certainly disappointed in my cards.

Performify's Pigskin Picks - Week Seven

Last week: 4-2 (and would have been 5-1 had Bulger not gone down) with a win on the Game of the Week
Season: 16-13 overall, 4-2 on Game of the Week.

This week, I'm not exceedingly happy about any of the picks. I'm suggesting two unit plays on the first two games, and one unit plays on picks 3 & 4. As usual, all lines listed current from Bodog.com, the best sportsbook around.

Detroit +3 at Cleveland
4/6 Yahoo "experts" have Cleveland here as well as a slight majority of the public according to wagerline. Detroit has been playing tenacious defense, especially against the pass and Cleveland is a pass-oriented team with a struggling quarterback. The Browns have been passing the ball nearly twice as much as they run it, leading to seven sacks in the last two weeks. The Lions defense has 10 interceptions on the season. Even if Kevin Jones is out, Detroit still has big-play potential in Bryson at the #2 RB. The Browns have the 27th-ranked defense overall in the NFL and must prepare against both Harrington and Garcia at quarterback. Detroit has been struggling on offense but that's been against three of the NFL's top defenses (Tampa, Baltimore, Carolina) and their "better than they've looked" offense should finally have a coming out party as they're able to run all over a terrible defense. Defensively Detroit will frustrate Dilfer with several sacks and a 1-2 big interceptions. Game of the week. 21-17 Detroit for the outright win.

Philly -3.5 over San Diego
LT is certainly looking hot on the ground, but the Chargers air attack is not. Philly blows out to an early lead at home, helping to neutralize LT. The Chargers aren't nearly as good playing from behind, and can't keep up with the Philly offensive attack. This is a pivotal game for Philly, which will move to 4-2 with the win. The Eagles are coming off a big 33-10 loss to Dallas and then a bye week, so they'll have plenty of motivation to come out strong. Andy Reid is 2-0 at home this season, 2-0 vs. the AFC West this season, and, most importantly Philly is 6-0 after the bye during Reid’s reign. Defensive tackle Darwin Walker should return for the Eagles and that will be a huge help for the defensive line. The Chargers are also banged up after a physical game at Oakland and are flying cross-country. 27-21 Philly.

Dallas +4 at Seattle. Seattle is one of the top four biased picks this week on Wagerline (more than 65% on their side) which makes this a public perception game in my opinion. 100% of ESPN analyst picks are for Seattle as well as 5/6 USA today picks Seattle doesn't have a strong offensive line, and Dallas should be able to get serious pressure on Hasselbeck. Seattle is also facing an emotional issue with the Ken Hamlin nightclub assult and will be starting a very weak Marquand Manuel at safety, which Bledsoe and Meeshawn/Glenn should be able to exploit. The Cowboys have looked decently strong in the last two weeks and I look for them to make this a close game if not win outright. 24-21 Seattle for the Dallas cover. Edit: added one more unit on Dallas when the line moved late to +5.

Washington -13 over San Fran
I can't imagine that the Niners have come up with anything for Alex Smith. The Redskins are hot offensively and should be fired up for a home game after last week's tough loss to the Chiefs. San Fran is 2-5 ATS in their last seven road games, while Washington is 4-1 ATS in their last five home games. If you need a good one-week defensive pickup in your fantasy league, take a strong look at Washington this week. This would also be the most straightfoward suicide pool pick, assuming you've still got Washington to pick. Would also be an easy game to hedge with a moneyline bet on San Fran if you do pick Wash as the suicide pick. Anyways, Santana Moss scores two touchdowns here, the Niners continue to suck, and the Redskins roll to an easy 28-10 win.

Eagerly awaiting the WPBT

Picks will be up tomorrow mid-day. Not a lot of attractive games this week, so be warned, the picks shall not be that juicy unless I can find some unexpected EV in my research tomorrow. Which is always possible. 4-2 last week was nice though (and would have been 5-1 had Bulger not been a dumbass)

Played a decent amount of poker the past few days. Still grinding solidly at ~40% ITM and 20% ROI at the $33 tables, so I'm probably still on the upper side of a sustainable heater but I'm certainly doing well there. I'm intending to start mixing in the odd $55 just to see how those go... I'm really happy with my SNG play and of course my tournament play overall.

Really looking forward to the WPBT Winter Classic tournament in a couple weeks. I'm looking forward to meeting a lot of the usual suspects in person for the first time. Those I'm heading down with are working on VIP/table servicefor some of the hotter Vegas clubs, using some of our illustrious Vegas connections. Any of the bloggers going to be in Vegas early? We're thinking a thursday night get together @ Rain or etc might be "the hotness". Our current plan is either to arrive Wednesday night or Thursday mid-day.

Performify's Pigskin Picks: Week Six

Last week: 2-1 (with a push), miss on the Game of the Week. 12-11 on the season, 3-2 on Game of the Week.
Note that i've also listed two NCAA football picks at the bottom of this post if you're an NCAA bettor. As usual, all lines listed current from Bodog.com, the best sportsbook around.

Kansas City -6 (-105) vs Washington
The Chiefs are coming off a bye after two disappointing losses to Denver and Philly. The Redskins rank 25th in scoring, averaging 15.5 points a game and are facing a Kansas City team who can put up points in a hurry. The Chiefs get a key offensive player back in ten-time Pro Bowl tackle Willie Roaf, which should open up both the passing and especially the running game. The Washington has lost seven straight contests to AFC opponents and hasn't beaten an AFC team on the road since winning 17-10 at Denver in November 2001. KC also sports a 17-4 record against NFC teams at home since 1995. KC's #9 rush defense should be able to limit Portis enough to keep the Skins in check. 27-14 Kansas City. Game of the Week.

Rams +14 (-115) @ Indy
The Greatest Show on Turf lands in Indy. The Rams bring perhaps the NFL's most potent offense (along with one of the most porous defenses) to the turf surface in Indy. While Indy's defense has looked exceedingly impressive this season, they've done so playing zero credible offenses. The Rams have proven their ability to score big points playing from behind this season, and this is going to be a big backdoor cover if not an outright Rams win. Martz is out, which might actually improve the team's chances assuming the remaining coaching staff doesn't make many of the same ridiculous coaching errors (i.e. they were Martz errors, not coaching staff errors). And while the Rams have a terrible road record, that's really obscured by a larger statistic - the Rams are much better on turf than they are on grass, and a lot of their road losses are "really" losses due to grass surface versus losses because they're on the road IMO. Indy @ home means dome, turf, and the Rams being able to backdoor cover if not outright win this game. Also worth noting that Indy is 6-16-1 SU in their last 23 games after being more than 14 point favorites in the previous game, and that in the game immediately after playing 49ers, the Colts are 0-5 SU. Don't get me wrong, there are a ton of other trends against the Rams (2-8 ATS in their last ten games, for example) and others for the Colts, but these two stood out as worth mentioning. At the end of the day, Payton puts up four touchdowns, but can't stay more than fourteen ahead of the Rampage. 31-21 Indy for the Rams cover.

Vikings +3 @ Bears
"We're just terrible. It's like we suck, man. I don't know what else to tell you. We can't find a way to win ballgames. I hate to say it: We always find a way to lose." - Chicago's starting SS Mike Brown. Thanks Mike. Let's add to that analysis that the Bears have two offensive linemen who are questionable, plus starting RB Thomas Jones is out, and Kyle Orton is still at QB. This is a big rivalry game for both teams, but the Vikings are coming off a bye week and will have put together a solid gameplan. The Chicago defense has done a good job limiting opponents yards and scores, but they haven't held together at crunch time and have allowed teams to pull out come-from-behind victories. Also, in the last two seasons Chicago opened 1-3, just like this season. In both previous seasons, Chicago went on to open as 1-5, not winning again until their seventh game. I look for that trend to continue here. The Chicago D will not be enough to overcome a terrible Chicago offense, especially with backups on the line and in the backfield. 21-13 Vikings.

Saints +6 (-115) over Falcons
Purely a public perception play. This line opened with close to 90% of the early money on the Falcons, and the line has barely moved through the week even with the news that the Saints would be down a starting running back. Even with the latest line moves and news that Vick will likely be playing, the money's still split 78% in favor of the Falcons. People tend to overestimate the gap in talent between NFL teams - and forget that the Falcons haven't looked all that impressive. This is purely a pride game against a bitter division rival for New Orleans after getting pounded last week. Here's hoping for a close game. 21-17 Atlanta for the Saints cover.

10/15 9:00pm update: Adding Detroit as a two-unit pick (moves in to spot #3) and San Diego as a one-unit pick (adds to the bottom of the list).

Detroit +1.5 vs Carolina
When the Lions moved through pick'em to a home dog, I moved to their side on this game. Public perception seems dramatically against them, and they seem like they're ready to turn their season around. A win here sadly cements them with a game lead for first place in the NFC North, so I think they're going to be very motivated to win at home.

San Diego -2 at Oakland
San Diego brings the NFL's top scoring offense to one of the league's worst defenses in Oakland. I see Oakland's homefield advantage as overrated here. LT has a big day on the ground and Oakland doesn't manage to produce as much through the air as they should against a weaker Chargers secondary. Practically a must-win for the Chargers who've lost three games already.

In NCAA CFB I like Notre Dame as a home dog against USC - the Irish have a large homefield advantage and this is a big play against public perception. USC is a dominating team but will be slowed down by the tall grass at South Bend. I also like BC -14 over a banged up Wake Forest (for the last 9 years, the week after a team played @ Florida State followed that up with a road game, the team in question is 2-12 ats... if they played a .500 team 0-8 ats). Both of these picks courtesy of 2+2 handicapper Scalfie - as most of my regular readers know I'm rarely a NCAA FB bettor but in these cases I agree with Scalf enough to lock them in.

Lock and (re)Load

This week I reloaded another $300 of the profit I'd pulled out of Party in the recent past. Cleared the Reload bonus between a few hours last Saturday & five+ hours tonight. Two tabling the $2/$4 Bad Beat Jackpot (which is over $430k at the moment, its crazy) and the fishy $.50/$1 tables, plus playing the odd $33 SNG or random MTT in the background. Reloading was slightly +EV but nothing major - I was up about $200 + bonus but gave back most of the profit to a couple big hands getting cracked (top set losing to runner-runner flush cards in a huge pot being the worst of the beats). Ended up slightly up, plus the bonus for a nice little reload payday considering I'm reloading pure profit to begin with.

ITM'd a 3-table SNG and the $10+1 MTT tonight (both while bonus chasing in the foreground), but just barely on the latter - finished 212th out of 1903 entrants. I pushed from the SB with A4o over a limper, got called by BB with K7d, and he managed to catch a seven on the river to send me home. At the second break we had 302/1903 players remaining (top 220 paid), and at that point I was 1/3 the average stack but playing as agressive as possible to try to build a chipstack and not just limp in to the minor money. So I think I did about as well as I could have with the cards I was dealt, and that's about all you can ask. Gotta love the massive 21.09% ROI on my $11 entry fee...

Headed to St. Louis this weekend for the Nine Inch Nails concert. I'll be leaving friday morning and likely heading back Saturday night although its possible we'll stay in St. Louis or even Columbia on Saturday night.

Picks will be posted tomorrow. Right now in CFB I like Notre Dame as a home dog against USC and BC -14 over a banged up Wake Forest (for the last 9 years, the week after a team played @ Florida State followed that up with a road game, the team in question is 2-12 ats... if they played a .500 team 0-8 ats). I've got both of those locked in already. For NFL picks, its probable that the meager Saints will sit in one of my pick spots, because this game is shaping up to be the biggest public opinion game I've seen in ages. Wagerline shows close to 90% of the money on the Falcons, yet the line hasn't moved an inch. Someone knows something here, and its not the general betting public. Also I'd almost guarantee that the Rams getting 14 points @ Indy will be a top pick for me as well. More on that tomorrow...

Performify's Pigskin Picks: Week Five

Not a stellar week for picks, in my opinion. Lines this week are tough, and a lot of the matchups are just terrible. I'm looking at two units on the game of the week and one unit on the remainder. All lines listed current from Bodog.com.

Results: 2-2 last week, 1-0 on Game of the Week. 10-10 on the season with 3-1 on the Game of the Week.

San Fran +15.5 vs Indy
Home dogs, especially 15+ point home dogs are hard to argue with. Wagerline shows 70% of the public money on Indy, so Indy is also a popular Bar Stool Pundits pick. And regular readers of Performify's Pigskin Picks know when you combine those two factors (massive home dog, plus a road team everyone loves) that I'm going to be taking the points. This is an Indy team that hasn't scored 14 points TOTAL in half of their games this season (2 of last 3). Not to mention Indy is 2-6 ATS in their last eight road games and SF is 4-0 ATS in the last four home games. San Fran put up 31 points two games ago on the #22 pass defense in the league (Dallas), and this week they're facing the #21 ranked pass defense in Indy. So San Fran has a lot going their way - trends, good offensive versus defensiv matchups, and the power of the massive homefield underdog. Look for Indy to build an early two touchdown lead, but come back to the ball control offense we've seen so much of from them this season. Alex Smith takes a couple big shots from the agressive Colts d-line, but playing from behind San Fran manages to get a pair of touchdowns in the endzone to cover. I can't believe I'm saying this, but Game of the Week. Indy 28-17 for the SF cover.

Detroit (pk) vs Baltimore
Both of these teams are going to pound the ground. Jamal Lewis will be forced to stretch the field against the gigantic Detroit defensive linemen (Wilkenson, Rodgers). Baltimore is still fielding Anthony Wright at QB, and he's not ready to lead Baltimore through a close game on the road. Baltimore's only dangerous receiver is TE Heap, and Detroit should be able to focus coverage on Heap to shut down any potential passing attack. Harrington manages to get a couple balls deep downfield to his stellar receiving core, and Kevin Jones puts up a decent game with over 100 yards on the ground against the tough Ravens defense - he's averaging 116.8/game at home on the ground. 21-17 Detroit.

Jacksonville -3 (even) vs Cincy
Fred Taylor should have a big game against a Bengals run defense allowing 4.9 yards a carry. Cincy's #2 receiver (Housh) is not going to play, which should make it easier to cover CJ. Rudi is banged up, but will have a decent game on the ground for Cincy, but Jacksonville will ultimately break the Bengal's unbeaten streak playing at home. 21-14 Jags.

Green Bay -3 (even) vs New Orleans
Simply put, the Packers don't open the year 0-5 and pull out this home game. Wagerline has 71% of the money on Green Bay here, but I'm still going to go against New Orleans. Favre put up 29 last week on Carolina, he should be able to put up more points than New Orleans can keep up with. 24-17 Green Bay.