Performify's Pigskin Picks - Week Ten

I told you I didn't like last week, and it showed with my first losing percentage week of the season. This week I'm much happier with our game selection. I'm betting against two home underdogs this week, betting on three road underdogs, and picking a couple games that the public favors as well. A little unusual for those who regularly follow my picks, as I'm usually about finding value in plays opposite the public, but I think this is another week (like last week) where the public's terrible trend of opening the season regresses towards the mean a little bit.

Last week: 2-3 with my first losing % week of the season. Loss on game of the week.
24-19 for the year (55.8%), 6-3 on Game of the Week (67%)

This week, recommending a standard 5-3-2-1-1 graduated play. As usual, all lines listed current from Bodog.com, the best sportsbook around.

Dallas +3 at Philly
The Eagles lost 33-10 in Dallas last month. The Eagles are much better at home than on the road, but homefield isn't going to be enough to erase the differential between these two teams. Eagles are missing center Hank Fraley which is a huge loss for their team. Fraley made all the line calls, which means someone else is going to have to step up, and with Dallas showing a lot of varying blitzes out of their 3-4, line pickups against the blitz are critical. The Cowboys are rested coming off a bye week and will have analyzed Philly's loss to Washington in depth. Look for Dallas to blitz unmercifully up the middle on defense to create a lot of pressure on McNabb, with Dallas LB DeMarcus Ware having a big game. Look for Dallas to go run-heavy on offense, combining Julius Jones and Marion Barber to keep fresh legs attacking the Eagles who are vulnerable up the middle. Westbrook will be stuffed on the ground, probably having less than 50 yards rushing. No one wants to admit it, but the Eagles are going to miss TO after losing this week. Especially with LJ Smith questionable (concussion), Philly is really hurting for offensive playmakers. Look for Dallas to build an early lead and runs out the clock in the second half. Dallas is 3-0-1 ATS in their last four games, Phily is 2-7 ATS in their last nine overall. Get on this game now, its going to move off three soon. If the line moves much off three by the time you want to get on it, I suggest a moneyline play because Dallas going to win this one outright. 21-17 Dallas. Game of the Week.

Kansas City +2 at Buffalo
In their first two intra-division meetings with the AFC East, KC rolled up 198 yards and three touchdowns on the ground against the Jets in week one and 185 and three more on the ground against the Dolphins in week seven. Now coming off a huge week at home against Oakland, Larry Johnson is eagerly anticipating facing the 31st-ranked Buffalo rush defense which is allowing 151 yards a game on the ground. Larry Johnson is actually more of a big play threat than Priest Holmes and the Chiefs will run all over Buffalo. The casual bettor might not see this, and only sees that KC has lost their #1 RB, but Larry has been ready to step in to the spotlight all season, and should have a huge game, espcially with his speed on the turf surface. Interestingly enough, this is a matchup between the top two running backs of the 2003 draft: McGahee was the first running back drafted at #23 overall, Larry Johnson was the second RB picked, #27 overall. The Chiefs are without pro bowl tackle Willie Roaf, but that actually hurts the passing game worse than the running game (it forces KC's best receiving option TE Tony Gonzales to stay in and block more). Buffalo has injury concerns on the O-line, look for the agressive KC d-line and speedy linebackers to stuff the run and force the Bills to go to the air. However Holcomb is not a mobile QB, so in addition to stuffing the run the Chiefs speedy linebackers should have a big day sacking Holcomb, whose sacks-per-play number is one of the league's worst. KC is 11-3 when having a 100-yard rusher dating back to 2003, the Bills are 9-2 when McGahee pulls off the feat. However, the Chiefs haven't allowed a 100-yard individual rusher in 15 games, the second-longest streak in the NFL behind Pittsburgh (20 games), while Buffalo ranks 31st in stopping the run as I've already mentioned. First RB to 100 yards wins this game, and its going to be LJ. KC Coach Dick Vermeil is 4-0 vs. Buffalo, and the Bills are 4-10 vs. AFC West since 1997. KC's #1 CB Patrick Surtain has moved from questionable to probable and is expected to play, and if not CB Dewayne Washington did a solid job starting last week against Oakland (awarded two game balls, for defense and special teams player of the week) and can step up again this week. For what its worth, Wagerline has this game 69% - 31% in favor of KC, so I'm picking a pretty strong public favorite here, which is the only thing keeping this game from being Game of the Week because absolutely everything I'm seeing favors KC here. 24-16 Kansas City for the outright win.

St. Louis +7 at Seattle
Rams are coming off a bye week and will return Bulger, Holt and possibly Bruce on offense, and "Big" Leonard Little on defense. If Bruce can't play, Curtis has blown up against Seattle in the past two years, so I don't see that as much of a disadvantage. This game is very similiar to the situation last year, where Seattle had a chance to distance themselves from the Rams in the NFC West, but the Rams staged a 17-point comeback in Seattle to pull off a big victory. Bulger has won four of his last five starts vs. Seattle. Seattle starts two rookies at linebacker, and Steven Jackson should have a field day. The Rams really need this win, they'll stay within a game of Seattle for the NFC West, versus falling three games down if they lose. 6/6 USA Today experts, 4/4 Yahoo experts and 83% of the Yahoo public all pick Seattle, and the general public is 2-1 for Seattle (67%-32%) according to Wagerline. I look for the Rams to win this game outright, so a small moneyline play here also has good value. If the Rams can't manage the win, I very strongly expect this game to be a cover or at worst a push. The Rams have massive backdoor cover potential with their potent passing attack. 27-24 St. Louis for the outright win.

Washington -1 at Tampa
Joe Gibbs has his team so well-coached that they're playing almost a perfect game each week (following the gameplan, minimizing turnovers, etc). Tampa's gameplan is to run the ball on offense and get after the passer on defense. Tampa Bay has averaged 57 rushing yards in its three losses, and the Redskins will do everything they can to stuff rookie RB Carnell Williams and force the game onto the arm of struggling QB Chris Simms including eight and sometimes nine in the box. Gregg Williams' defense has forced five of its six turnovers and 10 of its 14 sacks against young quarterbacks (Kyle Orton, Alex Smith and Eli Manning), so look for Williams to relentlessly blitz Chris Simms and force sacks and turnovers. Look for a couple corner blitzes out of Washington CB Shawn Springs - if rookie Simms can't make the right read and get rid of the ball quickly to that side, Springs will light him up and can force turnovers on the blitz. The Bucs are 3-20 when they lose more turnovers than they force, and that trend is going to come in to play here. The Redskins' max protect offense will help to slow down the Tampa pass rush and give Santa Moss time to get open. Despite the Redskins' hot offense, Washington will need to win this game on defense and on special teams. This will be the Bucs' third straight loss, killing any chances of going to the playoffs. Washington is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings between these two teams, while Tampa is 1-5 ATS in their last six overall. 17-10 Washington.

Denver -3 at Oakland
The Broncos are coming off the bye week and looking to take a big lead in the AFC West race. The Broncos are 12-4 in games following a bye week, only the Vikings and the Eagles are any better coming off the by (13-3 each). Denver is also 15-5 against Oakland since Mike Shanahan became coach in 1995. Shanahan still has a feud with Raiders owner Al Davis, who fired Shanahan in 1989. Oakland is going to pound the ball with Lamont Jordan and work off play action passes, but it won't be enough. Both teams have secondary problems Denver will likewise pound the ground with RBs Mike Anderson and Tatum Bell, while QB Jake Plummer will then take shots at the Raiders' beat-up secondary. Jake Plummer is coming off by far his best game of the season, a 309-yard, four-touchdown outing against the Eagles. Cornerback Champ Bailey should be ready to go for this week's matchup against banged-up Raiders receiver Randy Moss. Bailey is listed as probable on the injury report and practiced at full speed on Wednesday and Thursday, the first time in weeks he hasn't been limited in practice. Ultimately, Denver manages to build an early lead and then the one-two punch of Anderson and Bell will wear out the Raiders defensive line. For what its worth, Wagerline has this game 69% - 31% in favor of Denver, so I'm picking a pretty strong public favorite here. 28-24 Denver.