Performify's Pigskin Picks: Week Five

Not a stellar week for picks, in my opinion. Lines this week are tough, and a lot of the matchups are just terrible. I'm looking at two units on the game of the week and one unit on the remainder. All lines listed current from Bodog.com.

Results: 2-2 last week, 1-0 on Game of the Week. 10-10 on the season with 3-1 on the Game of the Week.

San Fran +15.5 vs Indy
Home dogs, especially 15+ point home dogs are hard to argue with. Wagerline shows 70% of the public money on Indy, so Indy is also a popular Bar Stool Pundits pick. And regular readers of Performify's Pigskin Picks know when you combine those two factors (massive home dog, plus a road team everyone loves) that I'm going to be taking the points. This is an Indy team that hasn't scored 14 points TOTAL in half of their games this season (2 of last 3). Not to mention Indy is 2-6 ATS in their last eight road games and SF is 4-0 ATS in the last four home games. San Fran put up 31 points two games ago on the #22 pass defense in the league (Dallas), and this week they're facing the #21 ranked pass defense in Indy. So San Fran has a lot going their way - trends, good offensive versus defensiv matchups, and the power of the massive homefield underdog. Look for Indy to build an early two touchdown lead, but come back to the ball control offense we've seen so much of from them this season. Alex Smith takes a couple big shots from the agressive Colts d-line, but playing from behind San Fran manages to get a pair of touchdowns in the endzone to cover. I can't believe I'm saying this, but Game of the Week. Indy 28-17 for the SF cover.

Detroit (pk) vs Baltimore
Both of these teams are going to pound the ground. Jamal Lewis will be forced to stretch the field against the gigantic Detroit defensive linemen (Wilkenson, Rodgers). Baltimore is still fielding Anthony Wright at QB, and he's not ready to lead Baltimore through a close game on the road. Baltimore's only dangerous receiver is TE Heap, and Detroit should be able to focus coverage on Heap to shut down any potential passing attack. Harrington manages to get a couple balls deep downfield to his stellar receiving core, and Kevin Jones puts up a decent game with over 100 yards on the ground against the tough Ravens defense - he's averaging 116.8/game at home on the ground. 21-17 Detroit.

Jacksonville -3 (even) vs Cincy
Fred Taylor should have a big game against a Bengals run defense allowing 4.9 yards a carry. Cincy's #2 receiver (Housh) is not going to play, which should make it easier to cover CJ. Rudi is banged up, but will have a decent game on the ground for Cincy, but Jacksonville will ultimately break the Bengal's unbeaten streak playing at home. 21-14 Jags.

Green Bay -3 (even) vs New Orleans
Simply put, the Packers don't open the year 0-5 and pull out this home game. Wagerline has 71% of the money on Green Bay here, but I'm still going to go against New Orleans. Favre put up 29 last week on Carolina, he should be able to put up more points than New Orleans can keep up with. 24-17 Green Bay.