Performify's Pigskin Picks: Week One
Normally I send out an email newsletter each week (usually on thursdays) with my NFL picks for the week (and I also post them in the sports betting section of 2+2). I generally publish four selections (sometimes more, occasionally less) ranked in order of confidence. This year I'll be posting these here on the Poker Blog for posterity, as well as sending out the email list. If you're interested in signing up for the email list, feel free to drop me an email.
Week One of the NFL is usually the week with the most solid lines: since the lineup has been set for months, they've had months to hammer out any weakness in the line, instead of 24 hours like every other week of the season. So its a tough week to make picks, you're picking for value instead of picking at weak lines. Don't make huge plays this week.
Detroit -3 over Green Bay Seems everyone on the planet thinks Green Bay is a lock here (2+2 is one of the only places where I've seen a general consensus to go the other way). Mostly because of Detroit's last serious preseason game, the debacle against St. Louis. I think Detroit is going to come out and more than make up for their preseason fiasco. You're going to see Kevin Jones establish the run (he'll put up one of the best performances among RB in week one) and then Harrington will be able to throw over the top to his fantastic cadre of receivers - everyone shredded the Pack's pass defense last year, and this year Detroit has the most dangerous group of receivers anywhere. Favre will throw two, maybe three interceptions, Green gives away at least one fumble. Game of the week... 27-17 Lions.
Philly -1 at Atlanta You're seeing a lot of respect for Vick in the dome with this line, and more than a little bit of doubt around T.O. But Philly's run defense is more solid than a lot of people give them credit for - they struggled last year in games which Trotter sat out (which made their season numbers look a lot worse), but firmed up dramatically once Trotter was back in the starting lineup. And T.O.'s preseason performances should put any doubt to rest about his ability to click with McNabb. Philly tore up Atlanta last year, and they're going to do it again this year. This is very close to being my game of the week. Philly 28-14.
Denver -5 at Miami. Miami is, well, Miami. Denver is a team that traditionally starts the season strong and they should have no trouble dominating the Dolphins in Miami. Its pretty obvious, but the Dolphins are still really, really bad. Miami has a lot of key defensive personnel already banged up (Daniels, Seau, Thomas, Bowens), a terrible offensive line, and zero scoring threats outside of Chris Chambers. Miami is going to try to run, and Denver returned the core of the NFL's fourth best rush defense last year. Wouldn't be suprised to see this one go to a two-three touchdown lead for Denver, but I'll call it as 21-14
St. Louis -6.5 at San Francisco As bad as the Ram's defense is, its not worse than San Franciso's offense. This is going to be an easy blowout i think. The line's crept up from opening at 4-4.5, but as long as its under 7 its playable in my opinion. Final 31-17 Rams
My other possible was Indy -3 over the Ravens, but this line scares me. That low it makes me think that its a sucker line to encourage action on Indy and that the Ravens would be the sleeper pick, so I'm going to stay away. I also think KC -3 over the J-E-T-S Jets Jets Jets isn't a bad play either... but not in my top four. The KC defense should be much improved over last year, the offense should be high powered and clicking from the get-go, and Pennington is still playing catch up from missing most of camp + preseason. This game might see some action, but doesn't rank
Week One of the NFL is usually the week with the most solid lines: since the lineup has been set for months, they've had months to hammer out any weakness in the line, instead of 24 hours like every other week of the season. So its a tough week to make picks, you're picking for value instead of picking at weak lines. Don't make huge plays this week.
Detroit -3 over Green Bay Seems everyone on the planet thinks Green Bay is a lock here (2+2 is one of the only places where I've seen a general consensus to go the other way). Mostly because of Detroit's last serious preseason game, the debacle against St. Louis. I think Detroit is going to come out and more than make up for their preseason fiasco. You're going to see Kevin Jones establish the run (he'll put up one of the best performances among RB in week one) and then Harrington will be able to throw over the top to his fantastic cadre of receivers - everyone shredded the Pack's pass defense last year, and this year Detroit has the most dangerous group of receivers anywhere. Favre will throw two, maybe three interceptions, Green gives away at least one fumble. Game of the week... 27-17 Lions.
Philly -1 at Atlanta You're seeing a lot of respect for Vick in the dome with this line, and more than a little bit of doubt around T.O. But Philly's run defense is more solid than a lot of people give them credit for - they struggled last year in games which Trotter sat out (which made their season numbers look a lot worse), but firmed up dramatically once Trotter was back in the starting lineup. And T.O.'s preseason performances should put any doubt to rest about his ability to click with McNabb. Philly tore up Atlanta last year, and they're going to do it again this year. This is very close to being my game of the week. Philly 28-14.
Denver -5 at Miami. Miami is, well, Miami. Denver is a team that traditionally starts the season strong and they should have no trouble dominating the Dolphins in Miami. Its pretty obvious, but the Dolphins are still really, really bad. Miami has a lot of key defensive personnel already banged up (Daniels, Seau, Thomas, Bowens), a terrible offensive line, and zero scoring threats outside of Chris Chambers. Miami is going to try to run, and Denver returned the core of the NFL's fourth best rush defense last year. Wouldn't be suprised to see this one go to a two-three touchdown lead for Denver, but I'll call it as 21-14
St. Louis -6.5 at San Francisco As bad as the Ram's defense is, its not worse than San Franciso's offense. This is going to be an easy blowout i think. The line's crept up from opening at 4-4.5, but as long as its under 7 its playable in my opinion. Final 31-17 Rams
My other possible was Indy -3 over the Ravens, but this line scares me. That low it makes me think that its a sucker line to encourage action on Indy and that the Ravens would be the sleeper pick, so I'm going to stay away. I also think KC -3 over the J-E-T-S Jets Jets Jets isn't a bad play either... but not in my top four. The KC defense should be much improved over last year, the offense should be high powered and clicking from the get-go, and Pennington is still playing catch up from missing most of camp + preseason. This game might see some action, but doesn't rank
posted by Performify at 2:21 PM
6 Comments:
good picks, i think i'm gonna load up on monday nite and go with philly.
Rams ended up being a sucker pick, the only one I felt bad about after the fact. I really thought Denver would go the other way and I stand by my decision there...
I wish Simmons had posted his throughts prior to my predictions, as his research gets heavily incorporated in to mine (but he was late this week, and I went on without). With his writeup I might have been smart enough to drop the Rams from game #4 and replace them with the Chiefs.
I still feel confident loading up on Philly tonight.
Yes, being from St Louis, I can tell you that Rams were a sucker pick... Who'd of thunk.. they are massacring Mr Martz on the radio today.
Congrats on your chiefs... What's the story on Priest vs Larry. I had the 4th pick in our draft and went with Priest... and was unable to get Larry later on. Is Larry going to start getting more carries?
Will,
I've got Priest + Larry in one league, but in the bloggers league I ended up in a very similar situation: I took Priest with the third overall pick but LJ got sniped in the fourth round.
LJ is probably only going to see 10 carries a game, but his explosiveness + the dominating Chiefs offensive line means he's a big threat to break a big run at any time.
Priest is still going to be a top tier back, no question. This week he should have a huge game against the Raiders.
I just hear that LJ had a little problem at the bars on Saturday morning.. I think a little 10 or 11 game suspension should be given out... lol.
Nothing will come of it, I'm sure.
Yeah, if LJ gets suspended that will help me out in both leagues. Here's the latest that I saw:
Chiefs running back Larry Johnson was arrested and charged on Monday night for domestic abuse in an altercation with his girlfriend at a bar early Saturday morning, the Associated Press reports. Allegedly, Johnson's girlfriend spotted him with another woman and confronted her, at which point Larry grabbed and shoved his girlfriend to the ground. According to the report, Johnson turned himself in, was cited for domestic abuse assault, posted bond, and was released. He was given a September 20 court date for the misdemeanor charge.
While this is unfortunately not all that uncommon, complicating matters is the fact that, according to the Kansas City Star, Johnson struck a deal with local prosecutors in February 2004 to avoid domestic violence charges over an incident in which he allegedly slapped a woman and threatened her with a handgun. Part of that deal was a two-year probation which this recent incident would presumably violate. Stay tuned for fallout from both the Kansas City legal system and the NFL
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