Wednesday, June 13, 2007

Light Heavyweight rankings

Here are my current linear rankings for the UFC Light Heavyweight division, and the latest community rankings via Unspun. My personal linear top Light Heavyweight fighters currently active in the UFC:
  1. Mauricio "Shogun" Rua
    - Welcome to the UFC Mr. Shogun sir. Despite the fact that he's likely 1-2 fights away from a rematch with Jackson, I don't see anything in the transition from PRIDE to the UFC that makes me think the results are any different the second go round.
  2. Quinton Jackson
    - One of the few divisions where I feel the current title holder deserves to be up at the top of the list... if it wasn't for Shogun moving over Rampage would stand alone here...
  3. Rashad Evans
    - Despite being a fan of Tito Ortiz in the past and a big fan of Team Punishment, I think Evans handily defeats Tito Ortiz at UFC 73.
  4. Lyoto Machida
    - the dark secret of the UFC's Light Heavyweight division. His highly technical counter-based style won't win him a lot of fans or get him a lot of TV time, but I think he stands a lot farther up this list than most give him credit for...
  5. Chuck Liddell
    - too early to say if age or partying has finally caught up to Chuck since he simply made a mistake and got caught at UFC 71 and prevented us from seeing the fight we wanted. However, I do feel everyone above beats Chuck most of the time. Machida is a big assumption but I think Machida is smart enough to force Liddell to come after him and not vice-versa.
  6. Dan Henderson
    - I'm a big fan of Henderson but I really think he belongs at Middleweight. I don't think he can hang at 205 for long despite the win over Wandy. But I'd love to be proven wrong...
  7. Michael Bisping
    - Despite trouble with Sinosic, Bisping still ranks here with me
  8. Houston Alexander
    - welcome to the UFC, Houston Alexander.
  9. Thiago Silva
    - Chute Boxe. 'Nuff said.
  10. Tito Ortiz
    - its been WAAAAAY too long since Tito has beaten anyone of substance to rank him any higher.
  11. Forrest Griffin
    - one of the few divisions with the depth to need to go past a top ten. Hopefully Forrest rebounds nicely this weekend but I think he's going to be in a tougher fight than many expect against Ramirez.
  12. Renato Sobral
    - Tough to not be a fan of Babalu, but he clearly came back too quickly from the Liddell fight and its hard to consider him a favorite over anyone above him on this list...
Here are the latest community rankings via Unspun:

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Thursday, June 07, 2007

Introducing Unspun and my UFC rankings - Heavyweight

Cujofan pointed me towards a new software feature from Amazon.com called Unspun. What is Unspun you ask? From their FAQ:

Existing methods for community collaboration on the Web aren't good at developing consensus rankings. If you do a web search for "sexiest movies," you might find websites that have lists of "sexiest movies," but each will be the opinion of the individual who authored that website.

Wikis (as prominently and beautifully exemplified by Wikipedia) are an excellent mechanism for community collaboration, but they don't support consensus rankings. Imagine a large group of people editing and re-editing a wiki page that purported to have a ranked list of "sexiest movies." It wouldn't work -- they'd step on each other.

So that's the niche that UnSpun endeavors to fill.

If you want to see the community consensus on what's the best or the worst, the scariest or the funniest, the tastiest or the dumbest, UnSpun provides the right amount of structure to make that possible.
So Cujofan and I immediately put together rankings for the UFC weight classes.

These are designed to be only fighters currently under UFC contract. So Fedor isn't at #1 in heavyweight because he's not under UFC contract and thus not eligible to be ranked.

Here are the current UFC heavyweight rankings via the Unspun community:



Here are my personal rankings which I've submitted on Unspun, with a bit of explanation. First off, these are meant to be linear rankings. That is to say, this is not a list of "this guy is holding the belt, and here are the other nine guys in relative order who should get to fight for it." Instead, this is designed to rank from top to bottom who the relative best fighters are in the UFC. #1 should usually beat #2-#9. #2 should usually beat #3-#9 but not #1. etc. That's not to say that #1 beats #2 four times out of five, but instead at least six out of ten times.
  1. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira
    - I think "Big Nog" is the best of the current crop of UFC heavyweights.
  2. Mirko Cro Cop
    - despite the viscous KO at the hands of Gonzaga, I think Mirko would defeat Gonzaga in a rematch. Cro Cop will now train in a cage and train to better defend elbows on the ground.
  3. Gabriel Gonzaga
    - yes, I think Gonzaga defeats Couture at UFC 74.
  4. Randy Couture
    - I think was fantastic that Couture took the belt from Timmy... but I don't believe he's at the top of the UFC heavyweight division except in title only...
  5. Brandon Vera
    - I feel we haven't seen enough out of "The Truth" lately to rank him any higher at this point. Especially after the long layoff. He could rocket up the chart quickly though...
  6. Tim Sylvia
    - I am not a Tim Sylvia fan in the slightest, but I've got to acknowledge that he belongs about here on this list. Definitely ahead of AA after beating him twice.
  7. Andrei Arlovski
    - Having dropped two of three to Tim Sylvia, AA ends up at #7.
  8. Fabricio Werdum
    - Despite the poor showing against Arlovski, still makes #8.
  9. Heath Herring
    - More of a statement on the lack of depth at heavyweight.
  10. Cheick Kongo
    - If he were five years younger he'd be a force to be reckoned with. As is, his pitiful ground game makes him an entertaining striker but a poor mixed martial artist.
So vote for your favorites in the poll, and feel free to comment here on what you think.

I'll be back soon with posts for each of the rest of the UFC weight classes. If you want to find those polls in the meantime just search for "UFC" on Unspun...

-P

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Back from long hiatus

I'll be back posting on Performify.com now. I had moved where the blog was hosted a couple times (following along with several server moves at UFCjunkie.com) and wasn't previously able to get Blogger's limited publishing configuration ability to work with my server configurations.

However, with the last UFCjunkie.com server move, I've gotten things playing nicely with Blogger and will be back posting on here again.

Thanks for hanging with me in the hiatus.

-P

Saturday, April 07, 2007

UFC 69 coverage

as usual we're doing full coverage of tonight's UFC 69 over on UFCjunkie.com.

You can head over there to check out my usual round of picks for the fight, or for our live play by play from inside UFC 69 including full coverage of the undercard.

Should be a really good card - the headlining match between St. Pierre and Serra really isn't competitive but the rest of the card could be one of the most competitive we've seen in a while.

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Saturday, March 03, 2007

Performify's Picks: UFC 68

My picks for UFC 68 are posted over on UFCjunkie.com: Performify's Picks: UFC 68. I'm in Columbus for the fights and as usual we'll be live blogging the event over at UFCjunkie.com.

Here's a quick breakdown of my picks. Click through to the full article for the usual writeup:
  • Matt Hughes -650: 6.5 units to win 1 unit
  • Renato Sobral -445: 4.45 units to win 1 unit
  • Rex Holman +245: .205 units to win .5 units
  • Gleison Tibau -240: 4.8 units to win 2 units
  • Jason Gilliam +325: .2 units to win .65 units
  • Friday, February 02, 2007

    My turn in The Well

    A stranger is being shown around a village that he has just become part of. He is shown a well and his guide says "On any day except Wednesday, you can shout any question down that well, and you'll be told the answer".

    The stranger shouts down several questions, and all are answered. The stranger is impressed, and after thinking a minute he shouts down: "Why not on Wednesday?" and the voice from in the well shouts back "Because on Wednesday, it’s your day in the well".


    For those who might be interested to know a little more about me, both as a poker player, as a handicapper, and as a person, I'm taking a turn in The Well on the 2+2 Sports Betting forum.

    So you can head over there and ask me any sort of question at all... or just see what everyone else wanted to know: The Well: Performify.

    Thursday, February 01, 2007

    Performify's Picks: UFC 67

    My usual round of full card predictions are up on UFCjunkie.com for this weekend's UFC 67, specifically here: Performify's Picks on UFCjunkie.com.

    Here's a quick rundown of my predictions from a gambling perspective, but again click through to Performify's Picks on UFCjunkie.com to see all the details:
  • Anderson Silva -450: 4.5 units to win 1 unit
  • John Halverson +600: 0.1 units to win .6 units
  • Mirko Cro Cop -1200: 12 units to win 1 unit
  • Scott Smith +140: 0.36 units to win 0.5 units
  • Terry Martin +205: 1 unit to win 2.05 units *
  • Diego Saraiva +190: 0.26 units to win 0.5 unit
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    Wednesday, January 24, 2007

    Ultimate Fight Night 8 (1-25-07) full card predictions

    My usual round of full card predictions are up on UFCjunkie.com, specifically here: Performify's Picks on UFCjunkie.com.

    I also put together a detailed recommendation on where I think you should be betting now, with Pinnacle gone. The short answer is BetCRIS. You can see my detailed guide on why you should be at BetCRIS, and how to best fund an account now, here: Where and How to Bet MMA Now. The title of the article references MMA, but its equally accurate for all the sports, including a little upcoming NFL game between the Colts and Bears.

    Here's a quick rundown of my predictions from a gambling perspective, but again click through to Performify's Picks on UFCjunkie.com to see all the details:
  • Sean Salmon (+500) by unanimous decision: .2 units to win 1 unit
  • Heath Herring (-330) by TKO, 2nd round: 3.3 units to win 1 unit
  • Spencer Fisher (+110) by TKO, 2nd round: .09 units to win .1 units
  • Dean Lister (+190) by submission, 1st round: .53 units to win 1 unit
  • Chad Reiner (+310) by submission, 2nd round: .16 units to win .5 units
  • Chris Price (+330) by KO, 1st round: .15 units to win .5 units
  • Clay Guida (-125) by TKO, 1st round: 1.25 units to win 1 unit
  • Rich Clementi (-410) by submission, 1st round: 4.1 units to win 1 unit
  • Tuesday, January 23, 2007

    My Top Ten Albums of 2006

    I've had this post in draft format for a month and a half now, since December 7th. Its obviously was a busy holiday season for me, and has been a busy start to 2007 with my work helping to spin up UFCjunkie.com and a few other interesting projects as well. But a phone call from The BlogFather chiding me for my lack of posts lately has kicked me in to gear enough to get this up ASAP. I’ll be back at least twice more this week – once with my usual writeup and picks for the next UFC event (which is this Thursday, already) and with an update on a couple different personal topics.

    So, while I don't have the extensive writeups on each of these that I would like, I'm still going to get this out there, before I have to fend off yet another email asking when my annual top ten list will come out.

    In alphabetical order by artist, NOT in order of ranking. Note that most of these are available from Amazon for $10 or less, so if you're interested and happened to have missed some of these, I'd definitely recommend giving them a shot. You can just hover over the image for a cool preview of the current price via Amazon.com

    ...And You Will Know Us by the Trail of Dead - So Divided
    This Austin-based band has been in my regular rotation with both of their last two major albums, 2002’s Source Tags and Codes and last year’s Worlds Apart which somehow barely missed my Top Ten of 2005 list. I'd label them as "Progressive Indie Rock" if you forced me to cram them in to a genre title. Trail of Dead is also taping friendly and freely allows sharing of their live music through The Internet Archive.
    The Decemberists - The Crane Wife
    This is an absolutely brilliant album that has received a lot of critical praise this year, including an 85 rating at Metacritc, eclipsing last year's 80 rating for universally-praised Picaresque. The Decemberists are perhaps the epitome of hipster bands, but I loved Picaresque and I also love The Crane Wife. Most know, I'm a sucker for progressive sounds that actually move a genre forward, and for concept albums that push the conceptual boundaries of music – if not the boundaries of pretentiousness itself. Hipster concept album based on a Japanese fable, crossed with thematic elements of Shakespeare's The Tempest? Ladies and Gentlemen, we have a top ten finisher. The Decemberists are also the only band to receive back-to-back honors on my Top Ten for last year and this year, although Beck came close.
    Ghostface Killah - Fishscale
    Ghostface Killah aka Tony Starks aka perhaps the most successful rapper to emerge from the rap collective of the Wu Tang Clan released two albums in 2006, the very well regarded Fishscale and a follow-up at the end of the year called simply "More Fish". As usual in this world of digital music I most frequently just pull my favorites from both albums in to my iPod, but Fishscale is definitely the more polished release and clearly earned its spot on my Top Ten. Fishscale featured several tracks produced by MF Doom, and the two are rumored to be working on a full collaborative project for release in 2007.
    Gnarls Barkley - St. Elsewhere
    I went "Crazy" over Gnarls Barkley like everyone else in America *groan*, but this musical collaboration between DJ and super-producer Danger Mouse (aka Brian Burton) and rapper/singer Cee-Lo Green – who mentored Outkast's Andre 3000, and you can definitely see the influence there - delivered much more than that first smash single. The whole album is an absolute favorite, and hasn't left my regular rotation since its release. The title track "St. Elsewhere" is definitely my favorite, but the whole album has fantastic listenability start to finish.. I've won over several fans to the work, even those who weren't typically fans of this type of music .
    The Killers - Sam's Town
    Burdened by heavy expectations and the fear of the dreaded sophomore slump, this album was highly anticipated and generally met with a universal "meh" from most of the critical music press. I for one really liked the album. Its definitely not "Hot Fuss", but it’s a great evolution of the previous work, and in some ways – at least on some songs – I think it’s even superior, a great step forward. While a couple tracks on the album trend more towards the forgettable, I think "Read My Mind" is the Killer's finest work yet, and tracks like "Bones", "When You Were Young", and "For Reasons Unknown" are every bit as good as my favorites from Hot Fuss.
    POS - Audition
    Stefon Alexander, aka P.O.S., started life as a punk musician and evolved in to a unique sound in hip-hop. Audition" features the work of two simultaneous DJs which gives it much more depth than his earlier work, Ipecac Neat (2004). Plus, you've got to like anyone who pays enough homage to Takashi Miike's to name an album after one of his masterpiece movies - and do all the cover art from said album in Miike theme as well. For those interested in more, I wrote a pretty extensive review of POS including this album in a post on 2+2's OOT forum (Other Other Topics) which of course turned in to a trainwreck of people arguing about the best in underground hip-hop, but hey that's the interweb for you.
    Raconteurs - Broken Boy Soldiers
    I've seen this labeled as "only the fourth best White Stripes album", but for me Broken Boy Soldiers warrants clear inclusion in my Best Of list for the year. Its worth it alone just to hear Jack White backed by a drummer with even moderate talent – sorry Meg. Intimate Secretary, Store Bought Bones, Level, and Steady As She Goes carry the album for sure, but its definitely one that I can listen to front to back.
    Snow Patrol - Eyes Open
    Northern Ireland's Snow Patrol opened for U2 during 2004, and the effect of being so close to their kinsmen for a year definitely shows on this more mature sophomore release. Snow Patrol crosses a bit of U2, a bit of Coldplay, a bit of The Shins, and puts their own unique voice forward along with what I'd consider some very strong lyrics. I also did an extended review of this album previously on my blog and in another 2+2 post
    Thom Yorke - The Eraser
    Radiohead frontman Yorke could put out an album of Danish Deathmetal-infused-Polka and it would probably be a strong candidate for my top ten list. I think the Eraser is good but not great, but still ranks among the top ten, although I’d probably rank it towards the bottom rather than the top if I were doing these in numeric order - which I’m not. I think the album has a noticeable peak in the middle with The Clock, Black Swan, and Skip Divided (#3, #4, #5). Those three songs are the only ones with a permanent spot on my iPod, but the fact that those three might as well be hardwired in, means this album succeeds where so many others failed to impress.
    Tool - 10,000 Days
    Without question my album of the year. I know a lot of old school Tool fans point to Aenima as their favorite, and some smaller group will point to Lateralus as the pinnacle of their fanaticism. However, I strongly feel that 10,000 Days continues one of my favorite trends about this band: Tool gets better and better with each album in my opinion, as the band continues to lead progressive rock in new and exciting directions. I’ve been a big fan since Undertow, their first major studio album, but I really think every album is better than the last, and 10,000 Days stands alone not only at the top of Tool’s catalog, but at the pinnacle of everything released this year. Every song on this album is fantastic. I can’t say enough good things about it.


    Honorable mention (close but not quite):
    Joseph Arthur - Nuclear Daydream
    Ohio singer-songwriter Arthur has release six studio albums and seven EPs in a career spanning back to 1996. I’ve seen Arthur on tour twice, once a few years back when he was a one-man-band, and then on the tour supporting Nuclear Daydream where he’s added a full band "The Lonely Astronauts" to complement his unique live sounds. While this album features some standout tracks, overall there are few good tracks mixed among only "OK" songs to crack the top ten, but it was really close. "Black Lexus" would easily be in my top five singles of the year, however – its haunting lyrics and melodies make it one song I can't skip over anytime it comes up when I'm shuffling songs. If you're interested, you can stream the entire album from JosephArthur.com (bottom right of the page).
    Beck - The Information
    I had high hopes for The Information, mostly due to the presence of longtime Beck-collaborator Nigel Godrich, who also happens to be known as the sixth member of Radiohead due to his longtime collaboration with the Oxford band. Reportedly this album took a difficult three years for Beck to finish, and most of it was actually recorded prior to the Dust Brothers produced "Guerro". I think it shows – the finished product is definitely good and shows signs of the usual Beck brilliance, but its no Guerro, and its no Top Ten.
    Deftones – Saturday Night Wrist
    I'm a longstanding fan of the Deftones and of Deftones frontman Chino Moreno's unique vocal and lyrical stylings. However, there are two clear classes of Deftones albums: Adrenaline, White Pony, and Around the Fur, all amazing albums still in strong rotation for me to this day, and 2003's self-titled Deftones and now 2006's Saturday Night Wrist which are listenable and good, but definitely not great. In my opinion, "Beware" and "Kimdracula" are the only tracks on the album that make me think the Deftones are still capable of delivering the type of brilliance last consistently demonstrated on 2000's White Pony.
    AFI - Decemberunderground
    AFI's seventh album is not their best, nor is it their worst. A couple tracks clearly stand out, but the album is a little too "poppy", a little too glam, a little too emo to crack the top ten. However, its definitely a standout album and well worthy of mention as an album just outside my Top Ten.


    Biggest surprise:
    Between the Buried and Me – The Anatomy Of
    Between the Buried and Me, from Raleigh, North Carolina, are one of the more technical bands out there, crossing numerous genres in their music from classical to metalcore to alt-rock to electronica, sometimes all in one song. While I'm not always the biggest fans of their albums, I usually enjoy a couple tracks very much (such as "Selkies: The Endless Obsession" from their 2005 release Alaska) I can always appreciate their highly technical songs and their progressive sounds which push the genre. When I heard they were releasing an album of cover songs I was intrigued, and The Anatomy Of did not disappoint in the slightest. The concept was that the band would cover songs from some of their strongest influences, which ranged from metal standards Metallica, Pantera, even Motley Crue, to alt-rockers Soundgarden, Faith No More, Depeche Mode, and Smashing Pumpkins, to more esoteric influences such as underappreciated hardcore band Earth Crisis, progressive rock pioneers King Crimson (a major Tool influence), even one of the godfathers of progressive rock in Queen. And then they cross to cover two great songs outside what many would see as their normal genre, but to a true fan the line of influence is clear: the fantastic song "Change" by Blind Mellon, and "Colorblind" from the Counting Crows. I very much enjoyed this album and its covers continue to delight anytime they spring up in a random shuffle. I'd very much recommend this album to anyone who is a fan of any of the covered bands.


    Biggest disappointment: (tie)
    Jaz-Z - Kingdom Come
    Universally panned by critics and bloggers alike, I can't really say much good about Kingdom Come. After the great commercial and critical success of The Black Album, I was looking forward to the fruits of Jay-Z's decision to step out of retirement for Kingdom Come, at least until I got my hands on the album. Unfortunately, it is nowhere near as good as the Black Album, and really needed help from a stronger production team. With collaborations from a couple standout names, I at least expected greatness from the track with Pharrell, and that turned out to be one of the worst on the CD. A big disappointment…
    Pharrell – In My Mind
    Pharrell's new album was actually one of my top anticipated albums of 2006. I am a big fan of Pharrell's work as a "super producer", especially his work with Chad Hugo under the name "The Neptunes" and work fronting the funk-rock band N*E*R*D with Hugo and Shay Haley. However, his first solo album really didn't deliver what I was looking for at all. While the album certainly isn't terrible, its definitely a huge disappointment. Pharrell couldn't seemingly bring his own signature sounds as a producer – or the infamous "Neptunes Sound" – to his own album for whatever reason.


    Best Album I Overlooked from 2005:
    Andrew Bird - Andrew Bird & the Mysterious Production of Eggs
    This album appeared on last year's Top Ten list of a friend who generally exposes me to a lot of music, with whom I generally overlap quite a bit in taste but not always. I picked up a copy of this album on his recommendation, but never really seemed to get in to it last year enough to bubble it up to my own Top Ten. However, fastforward to the start of 2007, and "the Mysterious Production of Eggs" is in heavy rotation on my iPod, and is one of the few albums I never consider removing when I sync up with my iTunes library to pull in some different music. If you like Sufjan Stevens, Clap Your Hands Say Yeah, or even Elliott Smith, I'd strongly recommend checking out this album, and I'm sad to say I overlooked it previously.


    If you're interested, you can find my previous two lists still online: 2005 | 2004.

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    Thursday, December 28, 2006

    UFC 66 full card predictions

    My usual round of full card predictions for this weekend's UFC 66 are posted in their new home, at UFCjunkie.com, specifically filed under UFC 66 : Performify's Picks.

    I’m exceedingly excited about the UFC 66 card this weekend. We’ve got a couple decent matchups to bet in my opinion – no significantly “off” lines that justify wagering a significant amount, but we should be able to edge out some value in betting most fights on the card and playing the small percentage edges. Clink on through to UFCjunkie.com to read the full writeup and predictions.